JoMo Posted December 7, 2018 Author Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 hours ago, The Waterboy said: JoMo, Do you have access to the 18z Euro that they are mentioning In the TN and SE forum? Yeah. It wasn't that great, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 I think many of us now know how Charlie Brown felt when Lucy moved the football out of the way. Hoping we get a surprise bump up at the last minute... but not holding my breath. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 31 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said: I think many of us now know how Charlie Brown felt when Lucy moved the football out of the way. Hoping we get a surprise bump up at the last minute... but not holding my breath. 12z HRRR gives some of us a glimmer of hope. But only for NE OK from about Tulsa South up through NW AR. It’s significant improvement over the 06z. Who knows... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 So....do we owe the GFS an apology? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 8 minutes ago, StormChazer said: So....do we owe the GFS an apology? Ugh, yes. I think I hate it even more now though...GFS 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 hour ago, StormChazer said: So....do we owe the GFS an apology? I personally will not be giving an apology. It still sucks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 hour ago, StormChazer said: So....do we owe the GFS an apology? I’m really more pissed at myself for the following: 1. Looking at any computer model more than 48 hours out. And 48 hours is still being generous. 2. Giving the NAM any credibility. We knew the insane totals were too high but it was awful with the eventual track. 3. The GFS sucked for us but assuming NC hits the jackpot it will have been accurate for them at a much longer lead time. 4. With all that being said I still agree with OUamber. Screw the GFS. It gets no apology for being right. 5. Loving winter weather in the south sucks and is maddening. Looks like our snow drought continues. At least we can restart the clock on # of days since a WSW has been issued for our area. #silverlining 6. At least we’re all miserable together today. It was supposed to be a great Friday. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 7, 2018 Author Share Posted December 7, 2018 23 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: I’m really more pissed at myself for the following: 1. Looking at any computer model more than 48 hours out. And 48 hours is still being generous. 2. Giving the NAM any credibility. We knew the insane totals were too high but it was awful with the eventual track. 3. The GFS sucked for us but assuming NC hits the jackpot it will have been accurate for them at a much longer lead time. 4. With all that being said I still agree with OUamber. Screw the GFS. It gets no apology for being right. 5. Loving winter weather in the south sucks and is maddening. Looks like our snow drought continues. At least we can restart the clock on # of days since a WSW has been issued for our area. #silverlining 6. At least we’re all miserable together today. It was supposed to be a great Friday. 1. Computer models can give an idea of any threat in the area. The eventual track and what happens isn't known that far out though. I mean, there's still a storm in the area, it's just not going as predicted by earlier model runs. 2. The NAM is trash. It's always been trash. 3. Interesting point. 4. lol 5. Winter weather in the south is very reliant on everything going right. The timing of everything has to be more perfect than points farther north. Not having one ingredient there, or one thing timed right means no snow. 6. I didn't take this one to heart quite as much, probably due to being burned in the past, plus I've already seen snow before Christmas so there wasn't the panic to get snow. There will be other chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 The HRRR still continues to show a band of snow from Lawton to OKC to just south of Tulsa to Fayetteville. A tick further north and NWWhiteout and I may see a bit here in Benton Co. The 18z next hour will give us a better idea. The last 6-8 hours of runs have improved. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: The HRRR still continues to show a band of snow from Lawton to OKC to just south of Tulsa to Fayetteville. A tick further north and NWWhiteout and I may see a bit here in Benton Co. The 18z next hour will give us a better idea. The last 6-8 hours of runs have improved. The 12z run had South side Okc getting near 6 inches of snow and points north 4.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: The HRRR still continues to show a band of snow from Lawton to OKC to just south of Tulsa to Fayetteville. A tick further north and NWWhiteout and I may see a bit here in Benton Co. The 18z next hour will give us a better idea. The last 6-8 hours of runs have improved. Yea I have seen this also, just didn't even bother really lol. Tulsa seems to think best chances for 1-4" will be for here and up your way, we shall see huh? Eh at this point I will be happy to see 2" on the ground compared to the last stinker 3 years. I try to keep myself in check anymore, get sick of being disappointed ya know. I love snow, grew up on the east coast and back in the late 80's early 90's we were constantly getting slammed with a foot of snow a week(man those were the days lol). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Winter Weather Advisory for counties from Tulsa S. 1-3 inches with isolated 4 inch amounts and a light glaze possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, Weatherdemon said: Winter Weather Advisory for counties from Tulsa S. 1-3 inches with isolated 4 inch amounts and a light glaze possible. I'm not going to lie, this confuses me.....there's not a single model projecting snow or even much of any precipitation for that matter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, StormChazer said: I'm not going to lie, this confuses me.....there's not a single model projecting snow or even much of any precipitation for that matter... Me to, The NMMB and ARW are the only ones I can see that even have measurable precip. EDIT: SREF gives a 20% chance of 1 inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 I think they included Creek, Tulsa, and Wagoner counties just to be safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 I will say this much, the HRRR is showing a trend after each run of inching the precip shied north. They also said up to 1-2 inches of sleet or snow. 1 inch of sleet would wreck the roads. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, StormChazer said: I will say this much, the HRRR is showing a trend after each run of inching the precip shied north. They also said up to 1-2 inches of sleet or snow. 1 inch of sleet would wreck the roads. To me it looks like the HRRR is showing a weaker and more southerly precip shield. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Don't have a good feeling with this advisory that's up, first bust incoming lol? Been watching that precip all night staying right around ft.smith, it's trying to make its way up here but still literally 5 miles away haha. Who knows, maybe the back end of this thing is what needs to be watched? These storms can be confusing to understand that's for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 hour ago, NwWhiteOut said: Don't have a good feeling with this advisory that's up, first bust incoming lol? Been watching that precip all night staying right around ft.smith, it's trying to make its way up here but still literally 5 miles away haha. Who knows, maybe the back end of this thing is what needs to be watched? These storms can be confusing to understand that's for sure! Definitelyneed to keep an eye on the backend thump of this storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 SW Oklahoma getting it pretty good. Not huge snowfall totals but big big snowflakes and some roads becoming snow packed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 I've just seen a few sleet pellets and extremely wet snowflakes here in Norman. Right now no precipitation is falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 11 minutes ago, lokee said: SW Oklahoma getting it pretty good. Not huge snowfall totals but big big snowflakes and some roads becoming snow packed. Awesome! Nothing here at all, had a quick drizzly rain that lasted 5 minutes about an hour ago but that's it. Heck the whole state is filled in for the most part except the extreme nw corner of arkansas here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Welp that was a bust of an advisory boooo :( nothing but a rogue flurry here and there lol. Having hope for next time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lovableweatherguy Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Sorry your Winter storm didn't come thru for you guys down that way. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 1 hour ago, NwWhiteOut said: Welp that was a bust of an advisory boooo nothing but a rogue flurry here and there lol. Having hope for next time! I wonder how many counties in the WWA from NWS Tulsa saw absolutely nothing today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 55 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: I wonder how many counties in the WWA from NWS Tulsa saw absolutely nothing today? Quite a few I would imagine, I can see 9 that were on the old WWA map from tulsa that they posted. I would guess at least the 4 here in Arkansas in the upper nw quadrant, not sure about the southern tier ones near ft.smith and the ones over on the oklahoma side. That advisory should have been taken down early afternoon when they were wanting to do so in their disco. It was obvious by radar returns and temps that it wasn't going to happen lol. Still sitting at 33 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Mega bust no matter how you slice it or try to defend it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 1 hour ago, MoWeatherguy said: Mega bust no matter how you slice it or try to defend it. Yea that was just a terrible forecast, it was all over the place...Sometimes I wonder and think are people glued to a monitor and a specific model? Does anyone go outside and actually see what it's doing now days on a real observation to notice temps etc. Use some real live observations from people in different locations throughout a warned/advised area. Idk I'm rambling, guess I am just set in my old ancient ways lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 9, 2018 Author Share Posted December 9, 2018 hehehe. Christmas morning just to see how much it changes: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 9 minutes ago, JoMo said: hehehe. Christmas morning just to see how much it changes: I just saw that too!!! Only 384 hours to go. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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