StormChazer Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 NAM3K and HRRR are the only things at this point giving me any lasting hope. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 21 minutes ago, lokee said: How much confidence do you give the long range HRRR runs? The 18Z HRRR is showing something totally different at the end of the run than the 18Z Nam. HRRR is pretty good model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 You know its bad when we're relying on the 36 hour HRRR, for hope. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 With this event in limbo,(Not over till the fat lady sings) how about the chances of snow on the 11th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 David Payne in Okc said 2 -4 along I44 from SW Oklahoma toward Okc. According to him the storm has weakened and is to the South of Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 6, 2018 Author Share Posted December 6, 2018 7 minutes ago, Doramo said: With this event in limbo,(Not over till the fat lady sings) how about the chances of snow on the 11th? 11th? Not good? There might be a system around the 14th or so in your area. We'll see. You can see what happened to this threat, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 2 hours ago, NwWhiteOut said: On a side note, when was the last time you guys saw measurable (more than an inch lol) snow? 2013 here The OKC/Norman area got about 2" in January 2017. I was in NC at the time, but we got a similar amount of sleet from the same storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 No more looking at a potential storm until 24 hours out. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 For Fallin to declare a state of emergency for this is just about the biggest bust for Oklahoma! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 9 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said: No more looking at a potential storm until 24 hours out. Seriously... Exremely frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, ouamber said: For Fallin to declare a state of emergency for this is just about the biggest bust for Oklahoma! Just saw that? Seems strange... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 6, 2018 Author Share Posted December 6, 2018 Weeklies continue to improve around/just after Christmas. Below normal temps from the end of Dec all the way to the end of the run on Jan 19th or so. -EPO signal there as the trough retrogrades from Alaska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Someone explain this loop for me Is that the amount of precipitation that falls? http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4SC_0z/ploop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 35 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said: No more looking at a potential storm until 24 hours out. And if you decide to look at it days in advance, never trust the nam. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Let’s be clear this wasn’t just the NAM busting. Up until 00z last night the Euro also had a significant winter storm. As much as everyone hypes up the Euro as being the best model it’s not invincible and is just as capable as he other models as flopping hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, WhiteoutWX said: Let’s be clear this wasn’t just the NAM busting. Up until 00z last night the Euro also had a significant winter storm. As much as everyone hypes up the Euro as being the best model it’s not invincible and is just as capable as he other models as flopping hard. Do you anticipate any real adjustments with the 00z or 12z models? Or is it sampled well enough now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Any good news? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 3k NAM at 18z wasn’t bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, The Waterboy said: 3k NAM at 18z wasn’t bad. There is a chance then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 18 run Nam 54hr shows freezing rain for NW Ark and southern Mo...yuck! http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getptype.cgi?region=us&model=nam&run=18&fhr=18&field=ptype Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 13 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: 3k NAM at 18z wasn’t bad. I'm expecting a colder, stronger storm at 0z tonite. Time to waffle back to the excitement. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, MoWeatherguy said: I'm expecting a colder, stronger storm at 0z tonite. Time to waffle back to the excitement. Would be nice huh, things look grim so far lol. Haven't seen ya on here in a bit man, hope all is well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 JoMo, Do you have access to the 18z Euro that they are mentioning In the TN and SE forum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 30 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said: Would be nice huh, things look grim so far lol. Haven't seen ya on here in a bit man, hope all is well! Yah man all well here. Just trying to temper my excitement after all these dud winters. Its paying off so far lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
draco1188 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Hey everyone, followed this forum for a while and decided to finally create an account. Man, living in the valley sucks when it comes to these model runs. It's like it tries to pick up on the higher terrain around me, which looks like I might get a decent amount but will actually get close to nothing lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 I am going to curl up on the couch this weekend and watch YouTube videos of places where it snows and pretend I am looking outside. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 31 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: Yah man all well here. Just trying to temper my excitement after all these dud winters. Its paying off so far lol. It’s killing me. This storm as modeled has been brutal. NAM says 2-3 for Tulsa now and the 3K likes 3-4 so, I guess that’s something to hold me over until the next heartbreak run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 8 minutes ago, Weatherdemon said: It’s killing me. This storm as modeled has been brutal. NAM says 2-3 for Tulsa now and the 3K likes 3-4 so, I guess that’s something to hold me over until the next heartbreak run. 3k NAM looks better FWIW 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 4 hours ago, JoMo said: 11th? Not good? There might be a system around the 14th or so in your area. We'll see. You can see what happened to this threat, lol thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 This was shared to me on FB from KOCO in Okc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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