StormChazer Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 This is such a tricky forecast(as is almost all winter events here in Oklahoma). I actually think Tulsa is still in a good spot for a solid 5 inches, partially because I'm an eternal optimist but this snow line is still going to move around some the next 24-36 hours. My personal opinion is that last night/this morning is the southern jog, and then soon it'll lift back north ever so slightly, which I think puts OKC and Tulsa right in the prime spot for a good snow. Again, there's alot of factors that will go into this, and if all the models keep pushing south, we're going to find ourselves with only an inch or so, but based on what the NAM usually does, which is pinball up and down until in settles in the middle, I think we are still in a good position for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Surface temps stay pretty warm through sat night, flirting with freezing on saturday during the day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 12z GFS and NAM pretty warm. NAM still "cold enough" for 3-5. A lot of things can still happen but I'll forever hate the GFS if it nailed this several days out... I don't care for it as it is as it always lets us down... now in both ways, LOL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Each model run seems to be getting progressively more concerning. At what point do we panic? Most of us have already invested a week into tracking this. If it falls apart now... We’ll, let’s not even go there yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 http://ticker.mesonet.org/?fbclid=IwAR3A_fsqY3T1gVpO8E4R-aXBuOc1svb9icW231tS7Ci4WwujqPIx9XhJVjI Oklahoma Mesonet's thought process about the storm. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 12 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: Each model run seems to be getting progressively more concerning. At what point do we panic? Most of us have already invested a week into tracking this. If it falls apart now... We’ll, let’s not even go there yet. Very big possibility we get shafted... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Have we had a run yet with actually sampled data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Hmmm not sure what to think of this one now based on everything I read here, and from writeups from NWS offices. Sounds like temps are so borderline or its going to be a sleet slop fest blah. Guess the models need time(if possible lol) to sample this thing properly. Tulsa has a watch for here now but its mostly a rain and sleet writeup with maybe a smidge of snow very very late saturday into midnight sat. , The watch should have been waited on I feel idk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 I've spoken to two local TV mets today and both seem pretty un-wavered by the runs last night/this morning. Seem to still think Tulsa gets in on somewhere between 3-6 inches, they expect models will jog back north a little bit, so I guess we'll wait and see if they're right. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said: Hmmm not sure what to think of this one now based on everything I read here, and from writeups from NWS offices. Sounds like temps are so borderline or its going to be a sleet slop fest blah. Guess the models need time(if possible lol) to sample this thing properly. Tulsa has a watch for here now but its mostly a rain and sleet writeup with maybe a smidge of snow very very late saturday into midnight sat. , The watch should have been waited on I feel idk. A watch is just that -- a watch. Just like a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch does not necessarily mean you will see a storm or a tornado, the possibility of severe winter weather is there given the model data spread and uncertainties still. I think this system still requires a blending of the model details at this point. We haven't even fully sampled this thing yet. All hope is not lost in my opinion... but the trend is definitely not good. That being said... I don't think the watch was wrong. Current official snowfall forecasts for Fayetteville have you with 3-4" and with between .1-.25" of ice. That's a decent storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 11am Snow total from Norman 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 My powers of deduction and line drawing would like to think that 4-6 inch band continues up into the Tulsa metro... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 6, 2018 Author Share Posted December 6, 2018 12z Euro is a horrible mixed marginal mess in OK/AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 hour ago, Upper Level LOL said: Have we had a run yet with actually sampled data? Do we know the answer to this question yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 The storm system won’t be over land until this evening is my understanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Dangit...models are pretty depressing today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 So the way I see it, is the storm will be sampled this evening, so perhaps the 00Z runs will contain sampled information, if not, the 6Z and 12Z tomorrow will. If those don't change the trend that's going on, then I'm sticking a fork in this and developing some trust issues for the next few weeks. Good news out of all of this, is this is early in the season to be getting chances for awesome snowstorms(even if they don't pan out), so we still have 3 more months of this to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, StormChazer said: So the way I see it, is the storm will be sampled this evening, so perhaps the 00Z runs will contain sampled information, if not, the 6Z and 12Z tomorrow will. If those don't change the trend that's going on, then I'm sticking a fork in this and developing some trust issues for the next few weeks. Good news out of all of this, is this is early in the season to be getting chances for awesome snowstorms(even if they don't pan out), so we still have 3 more months of this to go. The last 4-5 years should have been enough to develop trust issues! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, MUWX said: The last 4-5 years should have been enough to develop trust issues! You would think, but this one felt like such a slam dunk to get a least 3 inches. To have it disappear before our very eyes just 48 hours out is the worst. I'm not writing it off yet, the sampled data could turn things around for us, but it's definitely not looking great right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 NAM is running, let's see the prognosis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 18 minutes ago, StormChazer said: You would think, but this one felt like such a slam dunk to get a least 3 inches. To have it disappear before our very eyes just 48 hours out is the worst. I'm not writing it off yet, the sampled data could turn things around for us, but it's definitely not looking great right now. This is the usual case here lol, looks good then bam nothing looks so good. Is why I stated earlier that a watch was too early (just my opinion of course) because of how the models are trending since last night. Yea I know its a winter storm watch but with all the crazy social media hype now days it just causes mass panic lol, should have been held out until later tomorrow when models could sample it better after the thing comes onshore. But man it's depressing to see such a fantasy good storm for almost a week then just get slapped in the face again (possibly) by mother nature, NO you guys do not get snow in Ok. Ar. and Mo. lol....of course there is still time for things to change again ya know but Im not getting my hopes up, been burnt 3 years in a row and learnt my lesson On a side note, when was the last time you guys saw measurable (more than an inch lol) snow? 2013 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 15 minutes ago, StormChazer said: NAM is running, let's see the prognosis. So what's it say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Through hour 35, the 12K NAM has the low in the boot of Texas, but the 3K NAM has the low north of Houston. That's a HUGE difference! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 18Z 3K NAM @ hour 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 How much confidence do you give the long range HRRR runs? The 18Z HRRR is showing something totally different at the end of the run than the 18Z Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, ouamber said: 18Z 3K NAM @ hour 39 That is what the 18Z HRRR resembles at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Hmmm....I see that. It does look similar. I'm wishcasting for the low to close off, which would pull it back north and go negative tilt. Long shot, but that's what I'm hoping for. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Looks like the HRRR runs to 18 hours except at 00, 06, 12, and 18z when it runs to 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 7 minutes ago, ouamber said: Hmmm....I see that. It does look similar. I'm wishcasting for the low to close off, which would pull it back north and go negative tilt. Long shot, but that's what I'm hoping for. Putting that run of the HRRR the low does look to be moving to the NE into SW Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now