JoMo Posted December 6, 2018 Author Share Posted December 6, 2018 11 minutes ago, MUWX said: Yeah, I'm holding out hope for the sampling shift. I can't imagine this board in a miss like that! And the 00z GFS delivers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 This GFS run should be all TSA needs to issue the winter storm watch. I'm betting one within the next couple hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 0Z NAM was a bit warmer for Central Oklahoma. That would keep the heaviest ice on the northern side of I-44 corridor (a 20-30 mile shift north). It also drops an insane amount of snow on the back of the slow. FWIW: It gives Shamrock, Texas almost 30" of snow. At least a foot across most of Oklahoma (north of the freeze line). Let's see what the 06Z HRRR going out to 6 AM Friday has for surface temperatures. 0Z GFS was a good sign for snow lovers. I'm glad y'all up in SW MO are going to get some (based off this run). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 As far out as the 3K goes so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, JoMo said: And the 00z GFS delivers. It has been the best model for me, but who ever the met is that's been commenting here, says it should be tossed so idk what to think. I want to believe it, but I need to see some support from other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, MUWX said: It has been the best model for me, but who ever the met is that's been commenting here, says it should be tossed so idk what to think. I want to believe it, but I need to see some support from other models. Tossed out in terms of how poorly it was handling the cold air. As it catches up to the Euro and NAM it gets more viable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Does anyone get the UKMET? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 19 minutes ago, ouamber said: Does anyone get the UKMET? Only at 15z Thurs right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 6, 2018 Author Share Posted December 6, 2018 22 minutes ago, ouamber said: Does anyone get the UKMET? http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&mod=ukmet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Soooo, we gonna talk about that euro run? Because that just threw a wrench into everything. But, need to see the ensembles, may just be a goofy run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 6, 2018 Author Share Posted December 6, 2018 What Euro run? That run never happened. Nope, ghost run... didn't happen at all... Moving on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Gonna need details...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 6, 2018 Author Share Posted December 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said: Gonna need details...lol It was ugly. No snow for you or me. Maybe 2" or so in NW AR and Tulsa. Stripe of snow farther south but amounts aren't that great. Mixed precip... Ugly ugly ugly 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, JoMo said: It was ugly. No snow for you or me. Maybe 2" or so in NW AR and Tulsa. Stripe of snow farther south but amounts aren't that great. Mixed precip... Ugly ugly ugly Gross. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 6, 2018 Author Share Posted December 6, 2018 Euro ensembles were pretty ugly as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 06Z NAM gives OKC 1.8"-2" of liquid QPF between 15Z Saturday and 03Z Sunday. That would be an insane amount of sleet and/or snow. FWIW the NAM decided to give OKC 26" of snow this run. It has the backside snow dropping 1-2" an hour snowfall well into the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Tulsa NWS Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Crawford-Franklin-Osage- Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Tulsa-Rogers-Mayes- Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-Cherokee-Adair-Muskogee- McIntosh-Sequoyah- Including the cities of Rogers, Bentonville, Berryville, Eureka Springs, Fayetteville, Springdale, Huntsville, Van Buren, Ozark, Charleston, Pawhuska, Bartlesville, Nowata, Vinita, Miami, Pawnee, Tulsa, Claremore, Pryor, Grove, Jay, Sapulpa, Okemah, Okmulgee, Wagoner, Tahlequah, Stilwell, Muskogee, Checotah, and Sallisaw 429 AM CST Thu Dec 6 2018 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, with localized amounts up to 6 inches, and ice accumulations of up to two tenths of an inch are possible. The most likely area for the locally heavier snow amounts will be over the higher terrain of northwest Arkansas. * WHERE...Portions of east central, northeast and southeast Oklahoma and northwest and west central Arkansas. * WHEN...From late Friday night through Saturday evening. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Significant reductions in visibility are possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 weather.gov National Weather Service Watches, Warnings & Advisories Go to the NOAA Homepage NWS Homepage Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code City, St One product issued by NWS for: Dora MO Share | Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Springfield MO 348 AM CST Thu Dec 6 2018 ...Winter Storm Possible for far Southern Missouri... MOZ093-095>097-101>106-070000- /O.NEW.KSGF.WS.A.0001.181208T0600Z-181209T1200Z/ Newton-Christian-Douglas-Howell-McDonald-Barry-Stone-Taney-Ozark- Oregon- Including the cities of Neosho, Nixa, Christian Center, Ozark, Selmore, Vanzant, Ava, Goodhope, Rome, Squires, Dogwood, Pomona, Pottersville, Siloam Springs, South Fork, West Plains, White Church, Anderson, Noel, Goodman, South West City, Pineville, Rocky Comfort, Monett, Madry, Cassville, Kimberling City, Crane, Elsey, Indian Point, Silver Dollar City, Branson, Hollister, Kirbyville, Edgewater Beach, Forsyth, Ozark Beach, Powersite, Wasola, Thayer, Alton, Couch, Greer, Thomasville, and Wilderness 348 AM CST Thu Dec 6 2018 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible with some mixed precipitation. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with locally higher amounts possible. Ice accumulations of a light glaze possible. * WHERE...Along and south of a Neosho to Ava to Alton, Missouri line. * WHEN...From late Friday night through late Saturday night. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts. && $$ Schaumann U.S. Dept. of Commerce NOAA National Weather Service 1325 East West Highway Silver Spring, MD 20910 E-mail: [email protected] Page last modified: May 16, 2007 Disclaimer Credits Glossary Privacy Policy About Us Career Opportunities NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE: for Safety, for Work, for Fun - FOR LIFE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westhope84 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Per their AFD, NWS Tulsa seems to have concerns that Saturday could be a sleet-show until fairly late in the day. Nothing is more frustrating than watching heavy sleet and thinking about what the snowfall rate COULD’VE BEEN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Well, I have grown less confident in snow here in SW MO overnight. EURO doesn't even bring much of anything over the border. Worries me. Quick question with those more knowledgeable... SGF mentioned they didn't see any CWIPS analogs that really matched this event. What is the likelihood a system moves out that has no real analogs? I know each storm is different, but are they really that different? Is this a feature of the models not really sampling the low yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 The key to this whole storm working out for OK and surrounding areas now lies with a little shortwave that is forecast to drop into the northern plains and interact with our system. The models have trended stronger overnight with this shortwave and it has the affect of interfering with our storm and prevents it from wrapping up quickly like the models were showing yesterday. The result is a weaker storm that is further south and warmer. With such marginal thermal profiles you NEED this storm to wrap up quickly for those heavy snows on the backside. Otherwise there will be a lot of disappointed folks with some light rain wondering “where’s the snow?”. Will be interesting to see what the 12z models have in store, but I’d say overall the trends are pretty discouraging. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Norman put out 5:15 Dec 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Is it on shore yet to be sampled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 37 minutes ago, lokee said: Norman put out 5:15 Dec 6 I feel like for them to put this graphic out after last nights runs means they aren’t confident in that set of runs, but idk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 hour ago, WhiteoutWX said: The key to this whole storm working out for OK and surrounding areas now lies with a little shortwave that is forecast to drop into the northern plains and interact with our system. The models have trended stronger overnight with this shortwave and it has the affect of interfering with our storm and prevents it from wrapping up quickly like the models were showing yesterday. The result is a weaker storm that is further south and warmer. With such marginal thermal profiles you NEED this storm to wrap up quickly for those heavy snows on the backside. Otherwise there will be a lot of disappointed folks with some light rain wondering “where’s the snow?”. Will be interesting to see what the 12z models have in store, but I’d say overall the trends are pretty discouraging. Thanks for the write up. Is there a model that excels at determining shortwave strength? Because the NAM just kept on NAMing, but I’m not sure who the favored model is in this scenario. I also read the Storm is lagging behind out at sea some, how might that affect us? Wouldn’t the colder air be more firmly in place if the storm is dejayed until Sat evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 50 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Thanks for the write up. Is there a model that excels at determining shortwave strength? Because the NAM just kept on NAMing, but I’m not sure who the favored model is in this scenario. I also read the Storm is lagging behind out at sea some, how might that affect us? Wouldn’t the colder air be more firmly in place if the storm is dejayed until Sat evening? There were some hints at slowing yesterday in the models. I won't have time to look and dig in for another hour or so. If it slows down a bit we'll likely have more snow and less sleet/mixed precip. Just taking a guess based on snow totals above, the NWS probably thinks we'll have more mixed precip than the models are currently showing. 850 temps may be a give away they've been off/on warm for various runs on this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Nam has backed off on snowfall and ice totals with with the 12Z. NW Oklahoma sees nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 I still have hope in Tulsa, but man, if I live in West OK I'm pretty upset right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 The surface low is just too far away and the upper low too tight for areas much NW of I-44 to see much snow out of this. The storm will very likely continue trending south as is typically the case. I will almost always trust the NAM for near term forecasting of upper lows and Arctic fronts, but even it is likely too far north with things. An upper low entering in So Cal will almost always dig south before ejecting. Watch for the upper low to slow just a tad more and if it does it will be able to tap into the northern stream energy more. Saturday afternoon could be wild from Abilene north to Ardmore and over to Fort Smith. Areas near this line could see 4-6 inches with up to a foot possible where local bands set up. There is a ton of energy to be sampled today and we should know a lot more by tonight. PS it is really sad how terrible the GFS is at modeling weather in its home country. This has been a pretty easy forecast honestly for over a week now. All about pattern recognition which is why we still need good weather forecasters and not just model readers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 11 minutes ago, aggiegeog said: The surface low is just too far away and the upper low too tight for areas much NW of I-44 to see much snow out of this. The storm will very likely continue trending south as is typically the case. I will almost always trust the NAM for near term forecasting of upper lows and Arctic fronts, but even it is likely too far north with things. An upper low entering in So Cal will almost always dig south before ejecting. Watch for the upper low to slow just a tad more and if it does it will be able to tap into the northern stream energy more. Saturday afternoon could be wild from Abilene north to Ardmore and over to Fort Smith. Areas near this line could see 4-6 inches with up to a foot possible where local bands set up. There is a ton of energy to be sampled today and we should know a lot more by tonight. PS it is really sad how terrible the GFS is at modeling weather in its home country. This has been a pretty easy forecast honestly for over a week now. All about pattern recognition which is why we still need good weather forecasters and not just model readers. So do you think this thing hits TUL and OKC or does it go to our south? I'm not sure I agree with you that it's been "easy". Right now OKC and Tulsa have the system laying down a good chunk of snow, I think as you alluded to there now appears to be a good chance it goes south another 50 miles. The guys in OKC and TUL forecasts offices are pretty darn good so if they miss it I wouldn't say it's an "easy" forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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