Weatherdemon Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 20 minutes ago, OUGrad05 said: Was just noticing that. The GFS says basically no winter precip for NE OK. But in my experience GFS in a lot of cases will get storm track correct, but will handle precip and precip type poorly. GFS is warmer with about 40% less QPF N of I40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 hour ago, Weatherdemon said: Yea, it's seemed out to lunch compared to most but there are some in agreement. BTW... here are the OUN graphics. Looks like they've updated it and upped the totals. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 30 minutes ago, Weatherdemon said: GFS is warmer with about 40% less QPF N of I40. It is, I lack some faith in the GFS, but also want it to snow, so my objectivity may be compromised 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 12z GEM a little more tame than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 12z Euro still looks good for 4-6 in Tulsa. Not a lot of change from the previous run. Keeps things liquid until late Sat morning S of I44 in NE OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, Weatherdemon said: 12z Euro still looks good for 4-6 in Tulsa. Not a lot of change from the previous run. Keeps things liquid until late Sat morning S of I44 in NE OK. The 12z Euro is only out to 18 hours on Weathermodels.com. Are you getting it quicker somewhere else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, rockchalk83 said: The 12z Euro is only out to 18 hours on Weathermodels.com. Are you getting it quicker somewhere else? Was asking that myself haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 New Euro. Pretty much the same setup with just slightly adjusted amounts, lowers Tulsa snowfall by 1 inch, but sets up an even heavier band just to the north, little things like this aren't something to be analyzed super hard on a long range model, so in my mind a 4-6 inch scenario is still likely for Tulsa as of right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 54 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Was asking that myself haha My bad guys. Was on F5 and it said 12z but was old frames. Yea, I'm fired.... Thanks for posting the right one! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 The NAM has lost it's mind..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 18Z NAM12k is doomsday for Oklahoma! Pretty much a foot+ for the state!? And at 84 it's ongoing! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 And for the record, the system is still ongoing...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, ouamber said: 18Z NAM12k is doomsday for Oklahoma! Pretty much a foot+ for the state!? And at 84 it's ongoing! Yea its throwing insane totals for Oklahoma for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, ouamber said: 18Z NAM12k is doomsday for Oklahoma! Pretty much a foot+ for the state!? And at 84 it's ongoing! If you watch the last few frames, the snow shield kinda starts to...stay still? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 13 minutes ago, StormChazer said: The NAM has lost it's mind..... I’ll take it! 8” up here in SC KS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Gotta love the NAM. Some places get to 3-5 “inches” in a 3 hour period. In the very NW corner of AR I go from 12 to 17 between hours 81 to 84. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 I haven’t looked but I thought this run was supposed to have inland measurement data and ideally be more accurate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 The NAM usually overdoes precip amounts. Don't get your hopes up, yet. Pretty to look at, but it is the NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 25 minutes ago, StormChazer said: And for the record, the system is still ongoing...... I cannot help but wonder how much of the hot colors...especially along the I-44 corridor and especially in AR...falls as sleet? Could be a substantial amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RocketWX Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Yeah, that was fun to look at. Haha. Even gave those of us up north some fun. It at least piques my interest for the 00z runs tonight to see if they continue coming in hot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 NAM gonna NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 25 minutes ago, JoMo said: The NAM usually overdoes precip amounts. Don't get your hopes up, yet. Pretty to look at, but it is the NAM. I know. I really expected it to begin its stroll into reality this run, not flip out more, LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 10 minutes ago, Weatherdemon said: I know. I really expected it to begin its stroll into reality this run, not flip out more, LOL! My bet is on the 00Z tonight sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 GFS starting to cool off. Pretty decent change in snow but ice about the same as last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 As it relates to the 18z NAM...it's closing off the 500 mb low much more aggressively than the others so far....with a 558dm low along the Red River. That process is the reason for the higher totals. Something to watch for sure, as the other models in the 12z suite have hinted at a closeoff, which would portend to a farther north track. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 NWS Tulsa updated their snowfall graphic. For some reason I can’t upload it due to the 1.95mb max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: NWS Tulsa updated their snowfall graphic. For some reason I can’t upload it due to the 1.95mb max. This what you're trying to upload? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 8 minutes ago, StormChazer said: This what you're trying to upload? Yep. I’m taking a camera screenshot of it which is probably the issue. Maybe there’s a better way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Here is a good Tulsa NWS graphic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 8 minutes ago, Weatherdemon said: Here is good Tulsa NWS graphic. Where did you find this??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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