The Waterboy Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Canadian looks solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 12z GFS is 8 degrees cooler in Tulsa than the 06z run with 36 vs 44 Friday at 06z 12z GFS still 6 degrees warmer in Tulsa than the 12z NAM at 36 vs 30 at that same time. 12z GEM warmer than the 12z NAM at 33 vs 30 but cooler than the GFS with 33 vs 36. GEM seems to be a good middle ground right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Hey everyone and welcome to winter. I think the main thing we can sort of agree on at this point is that we are really in a good position across much of N OK, S MO, and N AR to see a nice snow. Fine details need to be worked out... and that includes whether or not we get a warm nose aloft that turns snow to sleet city or freezing rain. I think we are sitting better than normal at this range. Once we get this system better sampled I hope the models start to converge on a solution that is more consistent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RocketWX Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Hey all, been reading this thread for a few years. Finally decided to join and chime in from time to time. While I'm certainly not as knowledgeable as many on here, I received my degree in Geoscience from Mississippi State and also got my (often debated at times) Certificate in Broadcast Meteorology about 4 years ago now. I interned at KWCH and worked with Rodney Price and Ross Jansen on the weekends. Having said that I don't work in the field as I decided to go in a different direction but still have a passion for weather as others here. To be honest I've become rusty and I'm not as sharp as I was 3 or 4 years ago. I just miss talking weather with others and figured I would add on to the conversation from time to time when I have the chance. Oh, I live in Rose Hill, which is just Southeast of Wichita. This is where I got my display name. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, RocketWX said: Hey all, been reading this thread for a few years. Finally decided to join and chime in from time to time. While I'm certainly not as knowledgeable as many on here, I received my degree in Geoscience from Mississippi State and also got my (often debated at times) Certificate in Broadcast Meteorology about 4 years ago now. I interned at KWCH and worked with Rodney Price and Ross Jansen on the weekends. Having said that I don't work in the field as I decided to go in a different direction but still have a passion for weather as others here. To be honest I've become rusty and I'm not as sharp as I was 3 or 4 years ago. I just miss talking weather with others and figured I would add on to the conversation from time to time when I have the chance. Oh, I live in Rose Hill, which is just Southeast of Wichita. This is where I got my display name. Finally another SC Kansas reader! Welcome aboard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just wanted to say hello and give a warm welcome to all the new people on the forum! With that said, I really hope we can all get in on some much needed snow! I will be happy to see even 3-4" at this point lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Welcome Aboard Everyone! It's so nice having something to track, even if it makes me pull my hair out! Seriously, what has it been since NE OK and SW MO has had a Winter Storm Warning? Like 5000 days? J/K...almost! Kidding aside, I hope that HP can stay in a good position long enough to dump on all of us! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Saying hi to everyone! Always nice to get more banter in here! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Not really buying the GFS temps at the moment. But it comes down to how quickly the high to the north moves east. NAM keeps it more overhead and therefore keeps a more northerly component to the surface winds, and hence colder temps. GFS moves it out quicker and winds come around more easterly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Been watching the forum for a period myself. I find a lot of useful information from the people that post. I agree with most that the GFS has the temps to warm. My guy feeling is that the freezing line will set up somewhere just South of the Okc metro area, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Greetings all, welcome new posters, here's to an active winter full of snow chasing. This weekend has some nice potential, would like to see better model consensus before I jump in very deep. We're off to a good start. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Looking at the 12z Euro run in real-time and comparing it to the GFS/CMC models...the Euro is farther west with the high pressure, putting it in SW Iowa at 00z Saturday. The GFS/CMC have it over northeastern Iowa at that time. All the models have the high pressure at or near 1038 mb. The end result of all that is that for most of our region, Friday may be dry. The lone exception would be across S & SE OK, where light rain could breakout during the day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, rockchalk83 said: Looking at the 12z Euro run in real-time and comparing it to the GFS/CMC models...the Euro is farther west with the high pressure, putting it in SW Iowa at 00z Saturday. The GFS/CMC have it over northeastern Iowa at that time. All the models have the high pressure at or near 1038 mb. Wouldn't that give us a colder solution? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 There we go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, StormChazer said: Wouldn't that give us a colder solution? It does. There's very little ice on this run of the Euro. There is also a very sharp cutoff to the snow, with much of S KS & S MO missing out on the big accms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, rockchalk83 said: It does. There's very little ice on this run of the Euro. There is also a very sharp cutoff to the snow, with much of S KS & S MO missing out on the big accms. Yeah, it's a good run for OK and AR, not so much KS and MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will (little rock) Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said: It does. There's very little ice on this run of the Euro. There is also a very sharp cutoff to the snow, with much of S KS & S MO missing out on the big accms. How's it look for Arkansas? Edit just saw the above post, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 4, 2018 Author Share Posted December 4, 2018 Decent Euro run for AR/OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 For those wondering. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 For those Oklahoma folk looking for snow, the GFS-FV3 is a non-starter. Has a sleet -> rain scenario for all but the panhandle for much of the event. Pretty decent snow accms in S MO, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 NC AR ozarks continue to be in the crosshairs of this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 I'll post the Euro ensembles here shortly. they're out to hour 48 so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Here are the GFS ensemble forecast snow accumulations from the College of Dupage: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said: Here are the GFS ensemble forecast snow accumulations from the College of Dupage: Comparing that to what we've seen from the euro... there is quite the difference. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Here are the Euro ensembles. I'll post an update on my analysis of them for the Tulsa area in a bit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMT417 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Good afternoon. Welcome to the new members. I am monitoring from Ozark MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Good grief. We're holding our winter commencement ceremony here in OKC on Saturday, so needless to say we're looking closely at the forecast. Probably won't get any certainty about what will be falling from the skies until Thursday at the absolute earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMT417 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 hours ago, ouamber said: Welcome Aboard Everyone! It's so nice having something to track, even if it makes me pull my hair out! Seriously, what has it been since NE OK and SW MO has had a Winter Storm Warning? Like 5000 days? J/K...almost! Kidding aside, I hope that HP can stay in a good position long enough to dump on all of us! NWS SGF just tweeted this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Norman office put this out on their page about 12:30 Tues afternoon DEc 4th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 NAM is coming in a little cooler at hour 39 so far, by about 2 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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