MO/KS/AR/OK 2019-2020 Winter Wonderland Discussion

[StormChazer]

Max range on the NAM, so take it for what it's worth, but this certainly is a much colder solution than every other model.

[ArkieOkie]

Watching this one closely. The Fort Smith area is often in a bubble with only rain when it snows all around us.... we’ll see. 

[JoMo]

00z GFS:

[lovableweatherguy]

Hello, I'm new to this board. I love in Troy, MO. I follow another board locally. But I noticed that some of those board members are also joined this one. Figured it can't hurt for us weather enthusiasts!

We have also been following this weekend's storm although we believe it will be south of STL MO at this time. Still plenty of time for it to come north though.

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[lovableweatherguy]

Does this board cover folks from all over? Or do u guys live in one particular area?

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[JoMo]

Just now, lovableweatherguy said:

Does this board cover folks from all over? Or do u guys live in one particular area?
 

KS/OK/MO/AR area. Somewhat concentrated in NW AR, SW MO, and NE OK.

[The Waterboy]

4 minutes ago, lovableweatherguy said:

Does this board cover folks from all over? Or do u guys live in one particular area?

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Welcome aboard.  This is the only board I follow.  Lots of great people here.  

GFS run was great.  Canadian cuts up to the NE.  Couldn’t be more polar opposite from each other.  Nothing else that I see supports the Canadian track at this time.  

[lovableweatherguy]

Welcome aboard.  This is the only board I follow.  Lots of great people here.  
GFS run was great.  Canadian cuts up to the NE.  Couldn’t be more polar opposite from each other.  Nothing else that I see supports the Canadian track at this time.  

Just a question for you tapatalk pros. How come I get notifications for this board but can't for the other board I'm apart of??

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[The Waterboy]

1 hour ago, StormChazer said:

Max range on the NAM, so take it for what it's worth, but this certainly is a much colder solution than every other model.

Will be interesting to see the next few NAM runs as it gets more into range.  Temps are 3-5 degrees colder then the 00z GFS @84.  

If I recall correctly the NAM tends the handle the cold, shallow air better.  Is that right or did I make that up? 

[JoMo]

1 minute ago, The Waterboy said:

Will be interesting to see the next few NAM runs as it gets more into range.  Temps are 3-5 degrees colder then the 00z GFS @84.  

If I recall correctly the NAM tends the handle the cold, shallow air better.  Is that right or did I make that up? 

It has better resolution so it picks up on the cold air better.

[JoMo]

UKMET is really far south. We'll see is the Euro follows. 

[Will (little rock)]

4 minutes ago, JoMo said:

UKMET is really far south. We'll see is the Euro follows. 

Just curious, how far south and amounts?

[JoMo]

Just now, Will (little rock) said:

Just curious, how far south and amounts?

I don't have temps, just precip, so I don't know if it's frozen or anything. 

[StormChazer]

52 minutes ago, JoMo said:

UKMET is really far south. We'll see is the Euro follows. 

Do these two usually correlate to each other?

[JoMo]

26 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

Do these two usually correlate to each other?

They can sometimes. 00z Euro was better than the 12z. But still pretty meh.

[Chinook]

If the models make a small mistake with the low-level temps, this snow north of OKC turns to ice or rain. The low-level profile here from the GFS is good for heavy snow, it's just so close to 0*C up to 700mb. The 500mb heights are so high, that the 1000-500mb critical thickness line is in Kansas, about 10 miles north of Wichita. We have a long time before this is a short-range forecast, so the models will obviously take some time to resolve the exact rain/snow line (or freezing rain/sleet profile, if that exists.)

[StormChazer]

I've lived in North TX for about 25 years and OK now for 3, and when it comes to winter weather events, they tend to play out nearly identical. I know in my experience, it seems more often that not, that 24 hours or so before the event, everything tends to trend just a little cooler. Probably because the models need to initialize colder and start to pick up on how to handle the cold air just a bit better(which tends to be that it's underestimated the cold air), this usually sees winter storm watches or other advisories bump up an extra line of counties. Once this storm comes on shore, I think we'll get a much better painted picture, and today's NAM runs will be particularly useful since it handles cold air better(the two runs so far have already shown the air is colder than any other models).

I'll say this much, every time I can recall that I've ever received a heavy dumping of snow, it's been when the forecast calls for maybe half that, and then the cold air comes in quicker and doubles our totals out of "seemingly" nowhere. 

I'd love to see the GFS and Euro start a cooling trend today, but frankly, the long range models are always going to struggle with this cold air, it's just the nature of the beast. My eyes are going to start focusing on the NAM here soon.

[StormChazer]

17 hours ago, StormChazer said:

So the following is the 12Z members and what I found for the immediate Tulsa area...

16 members have Tulsa either missing out or under 1-2 inches.

8 members put Tulsa a hair away or right on the line on heavy totals.

26 members dump a heavy swath of snow across Tulsa and surrounding areas.

 

So comparing the two, the biggest difference is that 5 members shifted from the middle and low column to the high column in Tulsa's favor. So I won't really complain too much about this. Lost ground on the master, but gained ground in the ensembles.

 

I went ahead and tallied up the ensembles(not counting control or master) of last night's Euro run.

19 members have Tulsa missing out or getting under 1-2 inches.

12 members put Tulsa RIGHT on that steep gradient(we're talking north Tulsa county gets 8 inches, south Tulsa county gets 1-2 inches), or is within a county away from the high totals.

19 members have Tulsa getting a good dumping of snow.

 

This is the 3rd time I've done this and pretty much we are back to my first analysis where the number was

17

12

21

 

But no doubt we lost some ensembles in the heavy column to the "right on the line" column. 

So the way I see it

38% say heavy snow

38% say little to no snow

24% say within 20 miles you go from no snow to 8 inches. I may be biased because I want this snow, but I feel this category has to lean in the heavy snow category's favor, seeing how cold air tends to spread a little more than models think. I'll do another one of these for the 12Z run today.

 

[The Waterboy]

34 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

I've lived in North TX for about 25 years and OK now for 3, and when it comes to winter weather events, they tend to play out nearly identical. I know in my experience, it seems more often that not, that 24 hours or so before the event, everything tends to trend just a little cooler. Probably because the models need to initialize colder and start to pick up on how to handle the cold air just a bit better(which tends to be that it's underestimated the cold air), this usually sees winter storm watches or other advisories bump up an extra line of counties. Once this storm comes on shore, I think we'll get a much better painted picture, and today's NAM runs will be particularly useful since it handles cold air better(the two runs so far have already shown the air is colder than any other models).

I'll say this much, every time I can recall that I've ever received a heavy dumping of snow, it's been when the forecast calls for maybe half that, and then the cold air comes in quicker and doubles our totals out of "seemingly" nowhere. 

I'd love to see the GFS and Euro start a cooling trend today, but frankly, the long range models are always going to struggle with this cold air, it's just the nature of the beast. My eyes are going to start focusing on the NAM here soon.

I couldn’t agree more.  Feb 2011 is a great example of that.  Models and NWS were calling for 2-4 inches.  I ended up with 17 after being under a heavy band for about 3 hours.  I prefer under estimating and then hitting the jackpot.  Although that is rare.  

 

[StormChazer]

So it begins.... here is the NAM at 6PM Friday

 

 

Here is the GFS at 6PM Friday

[StormChazer]

2 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

I couldn’t agree more.  Feb 2011 is a great example of that.  Models and NWS were calling for 2-4 inches.  I ended up with 17 after being under a heavy band for about 3 hours.  I prefer under estimating and then hitting the jackpot.  Although that is rare.  

 

Wow!

[The Waterboy]

Here’s a temp comparison between the 06 GFS and the 12 NAM:

Hour.              GFS.             NAM

60.                  38.                 35

66.                  35.                 30

72.                  36.                 29

78.                  39.                  31

84.                  37.                  32

 

sorry for the ugly format   Typing on my phone.   

 

[StormChazer]

8 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

Here’s a temp comparison between the 06 GFS and the 12 NAM:

Hour.              GFS.             NAM

60.                  38.                 35

66.                  35.                 30

72.                  36.                 29

78.                  39.                  31

84.                  37.                  32

 

sorry for the ugly format   Typing on my phone.   

 

It's funny because that doesn't seem like much, but at the same time, that is drastic. Question, do you know if the models in any way play off each other? Like, if the NAM is coming in cold, is there anything in the GFS or Euro's algorithms that take that into account? I would think probably not, as they're entirely separate entities, but it bears asking the question.

[Weatherdemon]

3 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

It's funny because that doesn't seem like much, but at the same time, that is drastic. Question, do you know if the models in any way play off each other? Like, if the NAM is coming in cold, is there anything in the GFS or Euro's algorithms that take that into account? I would think probably not, as they're entirely separate entities, but it bears asking the question.

I don't believe so.

They take into account new OBS but I believe that's it.

[StormChazer]

11 hours ago, lovableweatherguy said:

Hello, I'm new to this board. I love in Troy, MO. I follow another board locally. But I noticed that some of those board members are also joined this one. Figured it can't hurt for us weather enthusiasts!

We have also been following this weekend's storm although we believe it will be south of STL MO at this time. Still plenty of time for it to come north though.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk
 

Btw, I never got a chance to welcome you to the boards! I've dabbled in posts here and there in the past, but this is my first real year of posting alot. Any new faces are welcomed!

[StormChazer]

1 minute ago, Weatherdemon said:

I don't believe so.

They take into account new OBS but I believe that's it.

I suspected as much. Good to know, thanks!

[StormChazer]

GFS looks to be coming in a little colder so far.

[StormChazer]

So while the GFS did trend slightly colder, it drops much less precip. Interesting.

[Weatherdemon]

6 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

GFS looks to be coming in a little colder so far.

 12z is 8 degrees cooler in Tulsa than the 06z run with 36 vs 44 Friday at 06z but still 6 degrees warmer in Tulsa than the 12z NAM at 36 vs 30 at that same time.

I do like that it is back to trending colder.

[StormChazer]

Not that the Canadian is an outstanding model, but it also trended colder and snowier.