MO/KS/AR/OK 2019-2020 Winter Wonderland Discussion

[StormChazer]

Yeah, you don't want to be in the bullseye 6-7 days out anyway, and that 32 degree line isn't going to be very accurate until a few days out, so the overall trend in the last 24 hours for all the models has been for a significant ice/snow storm in OK/AR/MO/KS, and I'm happy with that.

[MUWX]

If I'm the NWS or local met, I am not touching this storm until Sunday night/Monday at the earliest. We have seen this play out time and time again over the last several years. I might be overly negative on this threat, but we've seen crazy consistency and impressive totals at this range before and then it totally falls apart as it gets closer. 

[Weatherdemon]

8 hours ago, MUWX said:

If I'm the NWS or local met, I am not touching this storm until Sunday night/Monday at the earliest. We have seen this play out time and time again over the last several years. I might be overly negative on this threat, but we've seen crazy consistency and impressive totals at this range before and then it totally falls apart as it gets closer. 

It the new day of social media, they almost have too. They don’t need to be first this far out but, they can’t be last.

[JoMo]

12z GFS shows a rainstorm. 12z CMC has a nice snow across OK/AR. And the 12z Parallel GFS has this massive snowstorm:

[MUWX]

1 hour ago, Weatherdemon said:

It the new day of social media, they almost have too. They don’t need to be first this far out but, they can’t be last.

Maybe, but I don't think there's any reason to be talking about this one yet. I think Monday is the day talk should start, from those that people rely on. I'm all for the talk here though 

[JoMo]

12z Euro with a similar look to last night. It has the typical look with some winter storms where there's a warm tongue feature that extends up into the area. All depends on how cold it is.

So many different solutions because it all depends on timing. GFS was largely fast with the northern stream energy which moved the cold air through before the southern system. PGFS phased energy in and wrapped a low up which led to a big storm. CMC and Euro largely were somewhat similar in how they handled everything. 

[NwWhiteOut]

Amazing how models are in such agreement this far out, pretty impressive! Buttttt way too far to get people all worked up and panicky etc. I have seen this so many times now then poof its gone or does not happen. Interesting though, someone could get smacked down on with this. Would love to see even a few inches of snow to break this crap 4 years of nothingness now lol.

[StormChazer]

The gfs hasn’t yet settled in on the cold air coming over like the euro and Canadian, I thought it did yesterday, but then today’s runs went north again. We’ll see about the 18z. Euro is king most of the time and the gfs hasn’t been able to make up its mind, unlike the euro; its stuck to its guns the last few days.

Someone is in for an ice storm if these models come to pass.

[Travisstorma]

Probably jinxing us here now..

744
FXUS64 KTSA 012111
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
311 PM CST Sat Dec 1 2018

.DISCUSSION...

The main forecast concern will be winter weather potential late
next week/weekend.

Deep cyclonic flow over much of the CONUS will maintain below
average temps thru the first part of next week. After a brief
period of modification next week, the weather will be taking a
downward trend toward the latter part of next week and into next
weekend.

The broad upper trough over the CONUS, carved out by the strong
upper jet that helped bring the severe weather last night, slides
east by midweek, and the upstream split flow pattern over the
eastern Pacific will be broken down by jet stream energy to its
west. A shortwave trough in the southern stream will advance east
across the southern tier of states late next week and weekend,
throwing a slug of moisture over the region. Coincidentally,
northern stream trough energy is expected to drop southeast out of
Canada, forcing surface high pressure and cold air south thru the
Plains. This one-two punch will bring the potential for wintry
weather, possibly significant, by next weekend. The operational
GFS is the warmest of all the solutions and is generally not
favored with its poor handling of cold air. The ECMWF and GFS-FV3,
while they differ in timing and the details, both show the idea
of a southern stream storm moving by to our south with wintry
weather occurring over at least a portion of the forecast area.
The details will continue to be ironed out in the coming days.
Stay tuned.

Lacy

[StormChazer]

3 minutes ago, Travisstorma said:

Probably jinxing us here now..

744
FXUS64 KTSA 012111
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
311 PM CST Sat Dec 1 2018

.DISCUSSION...

The main forecast concern will be winter weather potential late
next week/weekend.

Deep cyclonic flow over much of the CONUS will maintain below
average temps thru the first part of next week. After a brief
period of modification next week, the weather will be taking a
downward trend toward the latter part of next week and into next
weekend.

The broad upper trough over the CONUS, carved out by the strong
upper jet that helped bring the severe weather last night, slides
east by midweek, and the upstream split flow pattern over the
eastern Pacific will be broken down by jet stream energy to its
west. A shortwave trough in the southern stream will advance east
across the southern tier of states late next week and weekend,
throwing a slug of moisture over the region. Coincidentally,
northern stream trough energy is expected to drop southeast out of
Canada, forcing surface high pressure and cold air south thru the
Plains. This one-two punch will bring the potential for wintry
weather, possibly significant, by next weekend. The operational
GFS is the warmest of all the solutions and is generally not
favored with its poor handling of cold air. The ECMWF and GFS-FV3,
while they differ in timing and the details, both show the idea
of a southern stream storm moving by to our south with wintry
weather occurring over at least a portion of the forecast area.
The details will continue to be ironed out in the coming days.
Stay tuned.

Lacy

I love it.

[Weatherdemon]

Their chiclet page puts 4-7 down Tulsa to the NW.

Very little ice but, that’s how the models trended today with deeper cold air.

i agree with the above post, someone is in for an ice storm.

[Weatherdemon]

OUN AFD

 170 FXUS64 KOUN 012117 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 317 PM CST Sat Dec 1 2018 .DISCUSSION... Gusty WNW winds have persisted across western and northern OK this afternoon but should decrease fairly rapidly after sunset. An area of light precipitation continues to wrap around the upper low across southern KS. This precipitation will come very close to entering northern OK around 00Z but for now will keep forecast dry as the low pivots northeastward tonight. The next chance for precipitation will accompany a elongated vort max late tomorrow night through early Mon morning over portions of western OK. Temps will be cold enough for some accumulating snowfall but with limited mid to upper moisture available do not anticipate any accumulation over an inch right now. This could change so it will be watched closely for possible advisory criteria. Warmer temperatures are expected Wed and Thu under a shortwave ridge. Warm, moist advection Thu thru Thu night should support high chance PoPs for light rainfall across central and southern OK. The main concern this forecast period will be the opportunity for a shallow, artic airmass to dive south during the day Thu and overnight into Fri AM. The ECMWF is fairly persistent with an aggressive solution, dropping temps below freezing both Fri and Sat along and north of I-40. Meanwhile, a southern stream shortwave trough is expected to move into west TX Fri. Precipitation remains possible in the extended periods, but it's still unclear how far south and how fast the cold airmass will get for wintry precipitation. For now, have opted to go with the more aggressive ECMWF which is very similar to the parallel run of the GFSFV3. These solutions both suggest a fairly significant winter storm MAY be possible by the end of the week and into next weekend across portions of OK and KS. This may include all wx types including freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Again, there is still much uncertainty regarding precipitation type and timing but the potential for widespread precip appears likely at this time.
 

 

 

[The Waterboy]

Some of the Euro Ens members are nuts with amounts.  Quite a few showing over 8 inches with a handful pushing 12-18.   

Of course there are also a few showing zero which I willfully choose to ignore.  

[Chinook]

As of right now, the models have something very interesting for Oklahoma in about a week

 

 

 

[StormChazer]

The GFS so badly wants to do its own thing and for the past 3 days now, after 2-3 runs of keeping the cold air up north, it’ll cave to the Euro again for another 2-3 runs before trying to go north again. It’s quite funny actually. But this latest gfs run throws some very heavy snowfall and ice in OK.

[JoMo]

12z models were a bit farther south today (Euro running shortly). Interesting. 

[rockchalk83]

18 minutes ago, JoMo said:

12z models were a bit farther south today (Euro running shortly). Interesting. 

The low pressure was modeled to be weaker, plus the high pressure was a tad stronger and farther west with the morning operational models. Let’s see what the Euro does. 

[JoMo]

Pretty big drop south on the 12z Euro as well. Congrats OK and AR on that one.

[MUWX]

23 minutes ago, JoMo said:

Pretty big drop south on the 12z Euro as well. Congrats OK and AR on that one.

Haven't had a chance to look, is it similar to the Canadian?

[Will (little rock)]

10 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Haven't had a chance to look, is it similar to the Canadian?

8 inches in Central Arkansas

[Weatherdemon]

Canadian 

[Weatherdemon]

GFS: 

v3: 

 

On Ice,

Euro showing no ice. Canadian hits SC OK pretty hard. GFS hits SW OK, v3 his EC OK.

[Weatherdemon]

Tulsa NWS upping their snow totals and decreasing ice amounts to very, very low.

 

[StormChazer]

As if on queue the GFS has tried to go back to a more northern solution with the cold air. Which it will maintain for maybe 1 more run until going back towards the Euro again. I laughingly say that because it’s done that now that last few days. About 1 more day until the nam can start picking up on it. 

[raindancewx]

CIPS Analogs has a lot of storms from 2002-03, 1987-88, 1984-85, 2000-01, and 2007-08 for this event in its top 15 analogs. SOI matches for Sept-Nov include 1990. I'm pretty sure 1987 and 1990 were good years for OKC in December.

[JoMo]

00z GFS fwiw

[The Waterboy]

Track still looks solid even though a slight bump north again.  Temps were a bit warmer.  Hopefully nothing to worry about at this point.  Doesn’t the GFS have a warm bias?  Hopefully we get a benefit from the snowpack to our north.   Canadian wasn’t terrible either.  

The north shift is slightly concerning.  If this continues it’s back to the usual I-44 jackpot.  

[StormChazer]

25 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

Track still looks solid even though a slight bump north again.  Temps were a bit warmer.  Hopefully nothing to worry about at this point.  Doesn’t the GFS have a warm bias?  Hopefully we get a benefit from the snowpack to our north.   Canadian wasn’t terrible either.  

The north shift is slightly concerning.  If this continues it’s back to the usual I-44 jackpot.  

The GFS is known for not handing cold air very well, the Euro tends to have a better grasp. I think the snowpack could indeed have some impact on how far south it travels. If the Euro holds on like it has the last few days, then I’m going to trust it over the flip flopping gfs.

[Chinook]

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

CIPS Analogs has a lot of storms from 2002-03, 1987-88, 1984-85, 2000-01, and 2007-08 for this event in its top 15 analogs. SOI matches for Sept-Nov include 1990. I'm pretty sure 1987 and 1990 were good years for OKC in December.

If anybody wants to *fantasize* for Oklahoma based on 1988, check out this Jan 4th-7th 1988 storm total plot! I think I see an 18" contour in there.

[JoMo]

00z PGFS: