MO/KS/AR/OK 2019-2020 Winter Wonderland Discussion

[JoMo]

Yeah, the current pattern is boring. Still looking at possible changes around the first week or two of Dec it looks like. Assuming the models don't change. Hoping the Euro corrects farther east with the trough in the west in the long range. The -EPO looks good. 

Have a good Thanksgiving everyone!

[NwWhiteOut]

Happy Thanksgiving!!

[MoWeatherguy]

Remember JBs old saying,  the weather in November the winter will remember.   Man it's been dry and boring most of the month.   I have no faith in any long term forecast calling for cold and stormy.   Certainly nothing sustaining.   But then the snow weenie part of me screams no way we go 3 straight snowless winters.   Just ready to get something good going. 

[JoMo]

23 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said:

Remember JBs old saying,  the weather in November the winter will remember.   Man it's been dry and boring most of the month.   I have no faith in any long term forecast calling for cold and stormy.   Certainly nothing sustaining.   But then the snow weenie part of me screams no way we go 3 straight snowless winters.   Just ready to get something good going. 

Ben Noll has been on the 2010-2011 analog kick lately. Not sure what happened down that way, but we had a few snowstorms here  

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather

[JoMo]

This is starting to look pretty decent.... Now if it actually happens.... that's another story. Heard the Weeklies have a lot of -EPO/-AO look to them week 3+

[JoMo]

Man, the 12z Euro ensemble still has that good blocking signal, and it's getting closer in time. 

[MoWeatherguy]

2 hours ago, JoMo said:

Man, the 12z Euro ensemble still has that good blocking signal, and it's getting closer in time. 

Tell me that in a couple of days I may start to believe. 

[JoMo]

1 hour ago, MoWeatherguy said:

Tell me that in a couple of days I may start to believe. 

Yeah, if it still looks that way in a week or so, I may actually think it's going to happen.

[MoWeatherguy]

8 minutes ago, JoMo said:

Yeah, if it still looks that way in a week or so, I may actually think it's going to happen.

Doug seems to think a favorable pattern is getting close,  so the Euro may be onto it.

[Cerakoter1984]

First pattern I've seen begin to repeat or lock on Euro since mid Autumn. Hope it happens.

[JoMo]

18 hours ago, MoWeatherguy said:

Doug seems to think a favorable pattern is getting close,  so the Euro may be onto it.

Yeah the 12z Euro EPS and the 12z GEFS look pretty similar. The projected pattern is getting closer. Hopefully it results in some precipitation as well.

On another note, the Chiefs are back to being garbage like usual.

[MoWeatherguy]

2 hours ago, JoMo said:

Yeah the 12z Euro EPS and the 12z GEFS look pretty similar. The projected pattern is getting closer. Hopefully it results in some precipitation as well.

On another note, the Chiefs are back to being garbage like usual.

Yah man my chiefs and cowboys are all of a sudden bad teams again.   Frustrating season. 

[NJ_Ken]

On 11/26/2017 at 5:46 PM, MoWeatherguy said:

Yah man my chiefs and cowboys are all of a sudden bad teams again.   Frustrating season. 

But look on the bright side, my Eagles have the best record in the NFL.

[Cerakoter1984]

Given what I've seen the past few weeks, interesting events coming up in la la land on the models may actually have some merit to it around the 5th. Give/take a day or 2.

[raindancewx]

http://weather2020.com/2017/11/27/the-2017-2018-winter-forecast/

I like some of the ideas Gary has for long-range stuff, but to me he gives too much power to Oct-Nov. If Oct-Nov just repeated over and over again without much more than a shift north/south, we'd get no rain where I live for a year? That doesn't happen (we had 0.04" in Oct-Nov, lowest 12-month total is maybe 3.3"?). If you included Sept 26-30, when we had 2.2", then we'd look wet, since we had 2.2", but he doesn't. To me the patterns reset in July when the Southern Hemisphere is in winter, that is when the changes in Nino 1.2, south of the equator, start to bleed into our hemisphere to set up the pattern.

I think the MJO activity this winter is going to be on/off this winter but at short intervals, so at some point (maybe Dec 5 as the models hint) Dec 5 is in the pattern for winter via the late Sept set up.

[Cerakoter1984]

9 hours ago, raindancewx said:

http://weather2020.com/2017/11/27/the-2017-2018-winter-forecast/

I like some of the ideas Gary has for long-range stuff, but to me he gives too much power to Oct-Nov. If Oct-Nov just repeated over and over again without much more than a shift north/south, we'd get no rain where I live for a year? That doesn't happen (we had 0.04" in Oct-Nov, lowest 12-month total is maybe 3.3"?). If you included Sept 26-30, when we had 2.2", then we'd look wet, since we had 2.2", but he doesn't. To me the patterns reset in July when the Southern Hemisphere is in winter, that is when the changes in Nino 1.2, south of the equator, start to bleed into our hemisphere to set up the pattern.

I think the MJO activity this winter is going to be on/off this winter but at short intervals, so at some point (maybe Dec 5 as the models hint) Dec 5 is in the pattern for winter via the late Sept set up.

I think there's a way to combine and use his technique with others to produce longer range and much more accurate mid-range weather forecasts for event timing, precip liklihood etc... Just not sure exactly what that is yet.

I agree with your post about when the pattern "starts".  My thought is and always has been that a new pattern started between June 25 and July 10 every year but some are just much harder to detect.

Every way I tried to sort reasonable and best analogs when I was doing them a few months back still gave me the same map with the SW ridge. Pretty interesting that they arrived at the same idea.

[raindancewx]

If the Modoki value stays around 0 we'll probably stay fairly dry and warm here - if Nino 1.2 warms before Nino 3.4, we could get wet quick. If Nino 3.4 warms before Nino 1.2, would think we cool, but stay dry. I had the Modoki value at -0.2 for winter, that doesn't look great right now with Nino 1.2 so cold, but would shift the cold East into the Midwest from where I had it by NV/UT/ID.

[The Waterboy]

12z GFS = Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr...

[WhiteoutWX]

Probably the best GFS run I’ve seen for this part of the country. Keeps the trough more towards the center of the country, retrogrades to our west by the end of the run with continued ridging into Alaska/western Canada to continue funneling cold air. Models have been bouncing around a lot with the post 7 day period so we will see if it lasts...

[hlcater]

41 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said:

Probably the best GFS run I’ve seen for this part of the country. Keeps the trough more towards the center of the country, retrogrades to our west by the end of the run with continued ridging into Alaska/western Canada to continue funneling cold air. Models have been bouncing around a lot with the post 7 day period so we will see if it lasts...

Bouncing around with the rough placement of this body of cold air. But they all have been remarkably consistent in having this cold air present and have been hinting at storm potential somewhere, but that's where the consistency ends. I'm just happy that we've got a solid mass of seemingly persistent cold air for systems to feed on. Obviously better if the main body of cold air is further west, like you mentioned, but as long as its cold without dry northwest flow, I'll take it. But I do expect the cold(maybe stormy?) look to last, maybe even for those further south.

[Cerakoter1984]

Upcoming 15 days of December looking pretty radical. Regardless what modelling is currently showing, there should be a nice southern U.S. storm in there before long. Pattern looks amazing. This pattern is how you get snow AND keep it for a long time if everything works out right.

[jojo762]

Basing off of the relative consistency of the GFS and Euro for the upcoming pattern i'm pretty optimistic about getting some harsh cold and possibly even snow at some point between next week and mid-december. Knowing how these things have evolved the past few years though it'll (the main system(s), whenever it comes through) probably devolve into 33 and rain. Time will tell, but definitely should be some interesting systems/setups coming up.

[raindancewx]

Canadian model has trended somewhat colder (to only a bit above average) and much wetter for this area of the US, as the Jamstec did last month, and as I forecast(!).

[Jonbo]

How about that Marginal severe weather risk for Monday? Winter won't take over without a fight i guess.

 

[Cerakoter1984]

I don't mind it. Glad it's cooling down and it's at least some possible rainfall.

[WhiteoutWX]

On 11/30/2017 at 6:48 PM, raindancewx said:

Canadian model has trended somewhat colder (to only a bit above average) and much wetter for this area of the US, as the Jamstec did last month, and as I forecast(!).

Those temperature anomalies would be quite the reversal of what the models are showing for the first half of December for large parts of the country. 

[raindancewx]

1 hour ago, WhiteoutWX said:

Those temperature anomalies would be quite the reversal of what the models are showing for the first half of December for large parts of the country. 

Not sure how it will hold up, but my analogs had the cold East/hot West look in Nov, and then a gradual reversal to what the Canadian shows in December, probably Dec 15-25. I would offer that with the complete lack of rain/snow in Albuquerque since Oct 5, and the record for no-precip being 109 days since 1892, any rain/snow that makes its way deep in the SW will be the indicator of the change. Also, November in La Nina years is a pretty poor indicator for winter anomalies. I know people like 1995-96 in the NE, but Nov 2007 is close too, the cold in the East in 1995 was much more intense than this year, but 1995+2007 isn't bad for Nov.

[NwWhiteOut]

Nice and cold finally for a change! Its 34 and have some snow flurries here!!!! Is nice to see

[WhiteoutWX]

Finally feels a bit like December out there. Bottom line for anyone looking for real snow: it’s not gonna happen in this pattern. It’s not amplified enough for northern stream systems to make it south of us, and the trough axis is too far east for pretty much anyone west of the Mississippi River if a system were to amplify. The GFS/Euro and their ensembles have been hinting at more troughing to our west in the longer range, but they also suggest a general deamplification of the trough to our east, meaning any systems coming out of the west may draw too much warm air ahead of them. All of this is long range speculation and subject to change, but so far nothing I’ve seen on the models screams favorable snow pattern for this part of the country.

[MoWeatherguy]

I'm certainly growing more concerned about any December forecasts for cold and snow.  It seems the persistent dry pattern is trumping all for the foreseeable future.