MO/KS/AR/OK 2019-2020 Winter Wonderland Discussion

[NwWhiteOut]

Spoke to some friends in KC, whiteout conditions at their home. Lots of road closures and power outages, really nasty looking but pretty up there!! They said the wind is horrible scary. Expecting 5-9" according to them. I hope we all down here get to cash in on this kinda stuff this season!

[Chinook]

I posted a Euro image like this 6 or 7 days ago -- and a rather serious storm did develop today. The 500mb is quite as closed off today as that particular run of the Euro 6 or 7 days ago, but it did sniff out a major low pressure in the region.

Now, look at this for next Saturday. The Euro precip shows rain in MO and snow for Nebraska and north KS.

[NwWhiteOut]

Been getting some freezing drizzle here for a bit now! Car has a coating of ice on it already. I see Tulsa is mentioning it now too, surprised no advisory is out with the temps being below freezing! Saying zr and snow showers up until 10pm, interesting

[StormChazer]

I'm (foolishly) watching Dec 3/4 intently to see if we can't squeeze out some measurable snowfall for NE OK. I need a winter storm warning, 1,362 days is just far too long for any snow lover to go without.

It really is crazy when you stare at this map at just how unlucky NE OK/SW MO has been....

But I firmly think this is the year to break the streak, with the pattern that is setting up, I feel we will see a 5+ inch storm this December, then a lull in January and then another hefty snow/ice storm in February.

The last 3-4 runs of the GFS has shown the snow line move northward, but the Euro is just now finally realizing there is something going on that day, and it shows a much further south(and dry) solution, so I'm interested to see what the 12z runs look like today.

[rockchalk83]

The Euro ensembles do show something in the Dec 3-5 timeframe, but the operational run is completely different than the GFS & Canadian as alluded to above. 

I'll be a curious observer in model trends over the next couple of days, too. With this most recent storm, it seemed like the models locked onto it in the day 5/6 time frame, then fine-tuned the track. Will be interesting to see if that happens again this time. 

[nrgjeff]

I was in KCMO for Thanksgiving and enjoyed tracking the storm. Interesting that at 30 hours the ECMWF just schooled the NAM. I joke about the latter choking 36-48 hours out, but it should beat the Euro and GFS inside 36 hours. NAM finally caught on farther south by 24 hours out. Euro was first to sniff out the vort max keeping south. NWS did a great job going Blizzard Warning. Plains pattern recognition promotes doing so with a tight vigorous vort max and deepening surface low press. Then, how about some thunder snow?

Little busy with family to post or look deeply, but I was following it. For safety we departed Saturday evening before it started, so I missed the real fun. Wish the blizzard had been a day earlier.

[StormChazer]

Been watching Dec 7-9 pretty closely now. Both the Euro and GFS seem to agree we are getting a robust system moving through OK.AR.MO.KS. They also seem to indicate this may be an ice event. Models don't usually handle shallow cold air very well, and the freezing line tends to trend further south than they suggest, so this should be interesting. The GFS keeps flip flopping, one run it keeps the cold air up in Nebraska, the next brings it back down into OK. Last nights 00Z Euro run looks very similar to today's 12z GFS, will be interested to see what the 12Z Euro says. Either way, this looks as of right now, to be our first real shot at a decent winter storm, but still waaaay too early to get our hopes up(but I am anyway).

[StormChazer]

Not half bad agreement for something 8-10 days out.

[rockchalk83]

Been watching that period as well. Seems to me like the models have loosely locked on to the system coming out of the desert Southwest.

The caveats to all this are 1) how fast does the colder air come down and will that act shove the system farther south? And 2) what role will the expected snowpack in SD/Nebraska play with the colder air? Does it make it colder and easier to shove farther south?

It’s worth noting that close to half of the 00z Euro ensemble members had some big precip totals for that timeframe, while more than half of the GFS ensembles were dry or had minimal precipitation. 

Definitely something to watch thru the weekend into next week.

[StormChazer]

Yeah, for NE OK, I'd say 85% of the models show snow, and of those models ~50% of them show 4+ inches, I know getting caught up on actual amounts is trivial, but it shows a trend that depicts at least a moderate amount, question is, moderate what? I didn't even think about the recent snowpack making it possibly easier for the cold air to spread. It's a pretty cool week leading up to next weekend too, so ground temps won't be near as warm as some events in the past where essentially the first few hours of frozen precip are negligible. I'll see what the latest Euro says shortly, see if that clears or muddles things up at all.

[The Waterboy]

Euro looks good.  Last 3 runs continue to increase amounts.  As usual, I-44 and north is the current bullseye.  

[StormChazer]

I'll have what this member is having...2 feet of snow? Not in my wildest dreams! Haha.

 

Joking aside, we are just about 1 week out now from the onset of this storm. It's looking fairly likely someone is going to be getting in on some good snow(and possibly ice), it now comes down to where that 32 degree line sets up and how much moisture is with it. The euro is trending a bit colder now, we'll see what the 18Z GFS thinks. I think this storm is going to make someone a happy camper, but then again, 1 week is an eternity in meteorology.

[Weatherdemon]

I like the general agreement amongst at least 6 models for a winter system for parts of OK during this time.

Hope it becomes a matter of how much here and not how close it will be. Would prefer to not have ice though.

[Weatherdemon]

Starting to feel more like an icing event with some light snow on the back end.

GFS has tracked further N and keeps most precip liquid.

v3 puts down most of the precip as ice in some form generally NW of I44.

Euro puts down some decent snow of 3-7 inches along I44.

Canadian more in line with the GFS.

Less track agreement this morning but still general agreement on the system and it's potential winter impacts so that's good.

[StormChazer]

Here are the last 4 runs of the Euro. I'm not going to get caught up on amounts(although this latest run surprised me), but the trend is pretty undeniable. Checking all 50 members as well, paints an interesting picture. Only 10 members showed a scenario where noone gets in on more than 2-3 inches of snow, and even more surprisingly, 27 of the members showed a scenario where someone gets in on 4-6 inches, and 22 showed 6-8 inches, I could go higher but I'm digressing. It's actually more members than this, but I'm trying to keep this to OK/TX/NW AR/S KS/SW MO.

Point of all this rambling is that the Euro has definitely been trending towards a more significant and warning criteria storm next week. After today's severe weather threat is over, I suspect the NWS and the local meteorologists will start talking more about it. I'm sure here in about 2 days we'll start to get the over hyping posts on social media using the most intense member possible.

 

On the complete opposite side of things, the GFS has decided it doesn't know what it's doing. After being fairly agreeable with the Euro yesterday, I'm not going to say it's gone out to lunch, but I can't picture the scenario it's trying to depict....the precip timing, temp gradient/locations, the whole thing just looks awkward and climatologically(sp?) speaking, I'm not seeing how that pans out. But, it could know something the Euro doesn't, We'll see what the trends are today.

 

[Weatherdemon]

Good stuff! Thanks!

FWIW... Tulsa NWS mentioned it at the end of their morning AFD.

Your Tigers may have a long tonight with lightning delays vs the Trojans if tonight's forecast pans out.

[StormChazer]

I noticed that. Short and sweet, but they did say "this could be more significant."

Nebraska and south Dakota are about to get slammed with " 9-14 inches of snow" according to the NWS in North Platte, NE, and it's going to remain below freezing the entire week leading up to our event, so that snowpack will potentially have an impact on the speed of the cold air.

 

Yeah, should be an interesting one!

[Weatherdemon]

Excellent point on snowpack! I haven’t looked at that this morning and I should have!

[rockchalk83]

To me, Euro seems to be the most bullish on the cold air intrusion, while the Canadian and GFS models are torchy.  It's interesting to me that the GFS-FV3 model (still experimental) progs more ice than snow for our region in the same time frame, so perhaps, this is a slippery compromise of the operational suite. 

Digging deeper into the ensembles, like StormChazer said, some of the Euro ensemble members have some significant totals in the Kansas/Missouri/Oklahoma region, but caution should be used on those since sleet does account for the "Snow Depth" images. Still though, only about half or so of the GFS ensemble members have an event in our neighborhood in the day 6/7 window. 

[StormChazer]

The Canadian moved away from the GFS and came around more towards the GFS-FV3(which btw, has this model seen any kind of success so far?) as depicting an ice storm. Still waiting on the GFS-FV3 to finish up it's 12Z run, the GFS though maintains keeping the cold air just to the north and northeast of Oklahoma. I'm very intrigued to see if the Euro sticks to it's guns or relents some towards the GFS. I can see this being a very difficult one to forecast with the ice element to this one. This smells like an ice storm for someone and models just stink at judging that shallow layer of cold air.

[The Waterboy]

As StormChazer pointed out earlier the GFS solutions over the last few runs seems extremely wonky.   Especially the 12z run.  Shows snow on the east side with rain further west.  That doesn’t seem very plausible outside of an ice storm with a lot of WAA.  

Althiugh I don’t have the specifics I think the FV3 has been more accurate than the GFS.   

7 days out there seems to be good agreement amongst all models and many ensemble members that there will be something to watch.  Personally, I prefer when the models don’t pick up on something until 4-5 days out.  Tracking this for 8-10 days is maddening.  We still have a week to go. 

[StormChazer]

Yeah, I can't say that I have ever seen the freezing line approaching from the east and slowly retreating west.....that just doesn't make any sense to me, but ice storms muddle things up, so I guess there's always a chance? 

 

Yeah, when it grabs something a under a week out, it's such a nice surprise, tracking a storm 10 days out, only for nothing to happen is the absolute worst.

But what counts is all the models show the moisture in place and the elements for a winter storm, so 7 days out, that is pretty good.

Time to see what the Euro does. 

[StormChazer]

All in all, the Euro stuck to it's guns. I'd say the only major differences would be the precip isn't quite as heavy, but still moderate, and exact amounts this far out don't matter. The area of freezing rain has shifted more to the east, but other than that, the Euro maintains. 

[MUWX]

Not getting my hopes up for an event that far away but I so love seeing the board so active again 

[StormChazer]

NWS in Norman's first thoughts on the storm so far.


"Temps will remain at least 3-5 degrees below average through most
of next week. By Thu, though, increasing heights under a shortwave
ridge axis and southerly low level flow will result in a brief
warmup. Low rain chances will be possible Thu as WAA commences
ahead of a main southern stream trough. Precipitation chances will
then increase Friday-Sat with the mid to upper trough. The
question then becomes in what form. The ECMWF continues to surge
an arctic air mass southward Fri which would likely support all
types of winter weather as far south as the Red River. For now,
based on the fairly fast progression of this synoptic feature
snowfall accumulations should remain on the light side. However,
freezing rain and sleet may also be possible. This will be watched
closely over the next several days."

 

That's obviously the preliminary thoughts for just the Noman forecast area, but I'm guessing this weekend we will get a decent write up on it.

[StormChazer]

Could this be the GFS finally caving to the Euro?

[The Waterboy]

Here’s what NWS Tulsa had to say: 

While there are still differences in the details, which is
expected in the day 6-7 time frame, the GFS and ECMWF both
suggest increasing chances for precipitation across the region
late next week in advance of a decent southern stream wave. The
EC, however, is also more aggressive with the southward push of
cold air down the Plains as it has a much more pronounced
northern stream wave. This is that dreaded one-two punch that is
often seen during big winter storms. While I`m not going to go
full boar on this solution, it is prudent to at least introduce
the potential for winter weather by day 7 (next Friday).

[JoMo]

Nice 00z GFS and 00z GEM

 

[StormChazer]

You beat me to it! That's two runs in a row that the GFS has gone more in line with the Euro, and this last GFS run puts up some big numbers for snow and ice as well.

The Canadian unleashes an ice storm as well. Either way, all models at this moment seem to be in pretty good agreement. Let's see what the Euro does here shortly.

[JoMo]

00z Euro looks to be a bit warmer/farther north this run. Still got a storm to watch though.