NwWhiteOut Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 Still around, just not believing anything this season until it happens lol....been burnt too many seasons here now! Hope you guys are all doing well, would love to see some early accumulating snow though. So what was everyones low temp this morning, it got down to 17 here!!!!! When I let our cat out at 4am my temp guage said 17, crazy cold for this time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 00z NAM looks great for what it’s worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 33 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: 00z NAM looks great for what it’s worth. Needs to shift about 50 miles south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 Amount went up again in the GFS and Canadian. Trend continues to be up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 11, 2018 Author Share Posted November 11, 2018 Looks like it might actually snow. At least all the guidance is pointing towards that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 4 hours ago, JoMo said: Looks like it might actually snow. At least all the guidance is pointing towards that. What's your personal thinking for down my way JoMo? Tulsa seems to be lost in confusion as normal lol. Who knows, but this would be an awesome start to the season for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 I'm still here. What's this "snow" you speak of? lol. In all seriousness, looks like we're not done seeing increases. This looks like a legit warning snow for me if I'm extrapolating correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 11, 2018 Author Share Posted November 11, 2018 3 hours ago, NwWhiteOut said: What's your personal thinking for down my way JoMo? Tulsa seems to be lost in confusion as normal lol. Who knows, but this would be an awesome start to the season for sure! It's tough to say down that way due to thermal issues, but it'll probably still snow at some point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 4 hours ago, NwWhiteOut said: What's your personal thinking for down my way JoMo? Tulsa seems to be lost in confusion as normal lol. Who knows, but this would be an awesome start to the season for sure! Here’s is my 2 cents based on 43 years of history living in this area. Nothing earth-shattering here but thought I’d weigh in since you asked. First, some facts: 1. November snowfall in NWAR is very unusual. Since 1949, when NWS started keeping records, measureable snow has fallen only 13 times. 2. 2.0 inches on Monday would put Fay in the top 7 snowiest Nov’s on record. 4 inches would be top 3. Number one is 8 inches back in 1976 so that record should be safe. Historically, our better snowfalls (2+ inches) come in a setup such as this one. Storm track is solid (for now), airmass isn’t super shallow where fz rain is the primary precip type, although thermal profiles are iffy the further south you go, and QPF is decent (0.2-0.4). NWS SGF disco does have some concern over fz drizzle which would suck. It also doesn’t appear like this is cold air chasing precip which is often a problem (cold rain). Models do often tend to underestimate the cold air and how quickly it pushes in. We have continued to see most models uptick in amounts the last 36-48 hours. The ‘ol fly in the ointment is that the storm arrives during the daytime hours. At least we’ll get to see it falling but that may cut down on totals some. Finally, where banding sets up is also a key factor. I would not be surprised to see some area between NE OK, NWAR, SW MO pick up 4 inches. I have had a new snow shovel for 2+ years now and I’ve still not gotten to use it. I finally took the plastic wrap off of it hoping that was the good luck charm we needed. We shall see! WB 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 1 hour ago, The Waterboy said: Here’s is my 2 cents based on 43 years of history living in this area. Nothing earth-shattering here but thought I’d weigh in since you asked. First, some facts: 1. November snowfall in NWAR is very unusual. Since 1949, when NWS started keeping records, measureable snow has fallen only 13 times. 2. 2.0 inches on Monday would put Fay in the top 7 snowiest Nov’s on record. 4 inches would be top 3. Number one is 8 inches back in 1976 so that record should be safe. Historically, our better snowfalls (2+ inches) come in a setup such as this one. Storm track is solid (for now), airmass isn’t super shallow where fz rain is the primary precip type, although thermal profiles are iffy the further south you go, and QPF is decent (0.2-0.4). NWS SGF disco does have some concern over fz drizzle which would suck. It also doesn’t appear like this is cold air chasing precip which is often a problem (cold rain). Models do often tend to underestimate the cold air and how quickly it pushes in. We have continued to see most models uptick in amounts the last 36-48 hours. The ‘ol fly in the ointment is that the storm arrives during the daytime hours. At least we’ll get to see it falling but that may cut down on totals some. Finally, where banding sets up is also a key factor. I would not be surprised to see some area between NE OK, NWAR, SW MO pick up 4 inches. I have had a new snow shovel for 2+ years now and I’ve still not gotten to use it. I finally took the plastic wrap off of it hoping that was the good luck charm we needed. We shall see! WB Nice, waterboy. Sounds good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 One other thing I left out. Last November snow in Fayetteville was 1996 so we can break a 22 year drought. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 11, 2018 Author Share Posted November 11, 2018 Not really looking for big amounts with the sun angle, and marginal temps. If it comes down hard enough (banding) then it could accumulate a couple of inches. We'll have to wait and see where the bands set up, but it looks like somewhere around N AR to S MO has the best shot. The tail end of this system cuts off and later forms into an upper low and tries to wrap more snow around for E AR and E MO on Thursday or so. The 12z GEM actually wraps the tail end up faster, but this is a bias usually: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 Nice writeup Waterboy, interesting facts for sure. I also have a snow shovel but have not used it in in 4-5 years here now lol, the last time I remember measurable snow was when we first moved here back in 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 11, 2018 Author Share Posted November 11, 2018 The 12z UKMET is also spinning the upper low up quicker like the 12z GEM. 12z Euro starting shortly....... EDIT: 12z Euro has more of a mix over NW AR. 1-2" snow amounts for QPF in that area. Heaviest QPF (snow) along and N of I-44 in MO with 3-4" amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will (little rock) Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 33 minutes ago, JoMo said: The 12z UKMET is also spinning the upper low up quicker like the 12z GEM. 12z Euro starting shortly....... EDIT: 12z Euro has more of a mix over NW AR. 1-2" snow amounts for QPF in that area. Heaviest QPF (snow) along and N of I-44 in MO with 3-4" amounts. How's the Euro look for Thursday's low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 11, 2018 Author Share Posted November 11, 2018 7 minutes ago, Will (little rock) said: How's the Euro look for Thursday's low? Well east. Far SE MO and extreme far NE AR would maybe get some wraparound snow, but that's it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 11, 2018 Author Share Posted November 11, 2018 Looks like the heaviest in SW MO and NW AR will be around 15z tomorrow morning. RGEM has had this for a long time: And the 18z NAM even shows signs of it: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 Interesting, Tulsa has this area in a WWA from 3am til 6pm tomorrow. Saying mixed bag, 1-2" of snow, we will see!! This could be neat to see already this early in the season, will we break our half inch a season snow drought lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 00z NAM looks very similar to 18z. Heaviest band in SW MO/NW AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 And so it begins. Jeez... Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 927 PM CST Sun Nov 11 2018 ...UPDATE... .DISCUSSION... Precipitation continues to expand from eastern NM through the TX Panhandle and extending across southern KS. A notable uptick in precipitation intensity has been observed across the TX Panhandle with recent reports of thundersnow, and this band of associated forcing will begin to extend eastward overnight with an expected increase in precip into NE OK late tonight. Additionally, the widespread ongoing convection over E TX will gradually lift northward into SE OK later tonight before spreading more east of the forecast area early Monday. Regarding the winter weather potential, the recent operational HRRR runs have verified well with the sfc freezing line, where as the recent 00z NAM showed considerable error across western KS with its 3HR fcst. This trend will be closely followed as the aforementioned NAM run is more aggressive with the freezing line south of I-44 during the the period of strongest lift around mid morning Monday. Also, data trends have been more northward with the mid level dry intrusion which, if verified, would quickly limit the snow potential southeast of Interstate 44 during the day Monday. In typical fashion, Southern Plains winter event are seldom straight forward. The updated forecast will adjust for precip coverage trends through the early morning hours otherwise the overnight forecast remains on track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 The gfs agrees with Tulsa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 12, 2018 Author Share Posted November 12, 2018 Guess I should go to bed so I can wake up and watch it snow later today. Not really looking for much accumulation, just want to see it come down, rare sight before Thanksgiving. 00z Euro says the upper low still may be in play for eastern MO/AR on Thurs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Excited to hopefully get to knock out this snow drought. Lowest amounts I saw was 1" for my area so that will work for November 12. Good luck everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Happy Snowvember Everybody!! All snow now on the west side of Tulsa. Love seeing the grass covered!! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 12, 2018 Author Share Posted November 12, 2018 Looking like a winter wonderland out there. It's a very wet, caked on snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 35 degrees here with rain sleet and occasional snow flurry mixed in. First time in my 43 years seeing this so early in a season! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Heavy hand setting up here now in Springdale. Very nice to see this early. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Just now, MoWeatherguy said: Heavy hand setting up here now in Springdale. Very nice to see this early. Awesome man, Im waiting to see it change over to all snow here hopefully. Girlfriend is in springdale and says its snowing/sleeting heavy there, crazy is about 4 miles north of me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 29 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said: Awesome man, Im waiting to see it change over to all snow here hopefully. Girlfriend is in springdale and says its snowing/sleeting heavy there, crazy is about 4 miles north of me Yah and now it's gone lol. Can't make up its mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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