Cerakoter1984 Posted October 13, 2018 Share Posted October 13, 2018 raindance is correct. The upcoming winter, if it errs on the warm side as the Nino forecasts seem to be making it, will be subject to long-term CAD events. (C.old A.ir D.amming) If we err on the side of severe cold, it will be major snow events for most of this area and very prolonged severe cold. If we have that odd situation where the tropics are strong and the cold is locked into the US all winter (think Russia the last 3 seasons), well, use your imagination about the severity of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 13, 2018 Author Share Posted October 13, 2018 Updated the date to this year. Oct JMA released today. https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/ Jan looks interesting with a trough across much of the US and below normal temps. That constant look of a -EPO looks nice as well as the high latitude stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 13, 2018 Share Posted October 13, 2018 This region does pretty well for snow in my analogs - I have snow anomaly maps for each analog toward the back if you all are curious. This is what I have - https://www.scribd.com/document/390797995/Winter-2018-19-Outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted October 14, 2018 Share Posted October 14, 2018 Whats going on everyone? How are all of you doing? So what do you guys/gals think for this upcoming winter. This has been one crazy rainy summer and start to fall!!!! I feel as though this is all setting up for some major icing events this winter but who really knows. For surely we cant go(at least here in arkansas lol) for the 4th season with half an inch of snowfall for the winter season haha. Hope you all are doing good!! Can't wait to kick off the season and get rolling in here again, been awful quiet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 14, 2018 Author Share Posted October 14, 2018 Feb looking good for snow on the latest Euro seasonal: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 15, 2018 Author Share Posted October 15, 2018 Euro monthly snowfall maps updated: https://www.bennollweather.com/ecmwf/ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 16, 2018 Author Share Posted October 16, 2018 UKMET snowfall maps updated https://www.bennollweather.com/ukmet Check out Feb... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 19, 2018 Author Share Posted October 19, 2018 Lots of high latitude blocking showing up on the Euro weeklies, also a -EPO keeps showing up in Nov into early Dec. Hopefully this all isn't happening too soon and then winter flops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted November 1, 2018 Share Posted November 1, 2018 Don't write much but am an avid follower and love to read y'alls take/ input. I have a question about the lack of snow for the past three winters and it is, has this ever happened before in this area? We are talking about the overall area that is covered here. I have not seen any snow consistency records , don't know if there is such. Just curious . I'm thinking surely that we could not go another year on the skimpy snow can we? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 3 hours ago, Doramo said: Don't write much but am an avid follower and love to read y'alls take/ input. I have a question about the lack of snow for the past three winters and it is, has this ever happened before in this area? We are talking about the overall area that is covered here. I have not seen any snow consistency records , don't know if there is such. Just curious . I'm thinking surely that we could not go another year on the skimpy snow can we? I can't speak for the whole area but I can tell you that for Oklahoma City the period from 2015-2018 had the lowest three winter snow total on record there. It's been rough out there for snow lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 50 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said: I can't speak for the whole area but I can tell you that for Oklahoma City the period from 2015-2018 had the lowest three winter snow total on record there. It's been rough out there for snow lovers. Thanks for info....I have been living here near West Plains, MO off n on for 38 yr and have never experienced such a snow-less period...I mean the total for the last three years is roughly 3" give or take . I'm thinking this has to be some kind of record . I surely hope this winter breaks the trend and Mom Nature makes up for the lack this year.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 2, 2018 Author Share Posted November 2, 2018 Well, that was a fun 12z GFS run to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 2 hours ago, JoMo said: Well, that was a fun 12z GFS run to look at. Pretty crazy. The FV3 GFS has been showing that since yesterday. Hold your breath... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 The Euro has some similar eye candy as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 Not putting any stock into a early-mid November snow storm. I cant help but think about how awesome yesterday would have been if it were 15 degrees colder, hoping the Heady and Lezak are on to something with the cycling pattern because that one would be fun in the middle of winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 2 hours ago, MUWX said: Not putting any stock into a early-mid November snow storm. I cant help but think about how awesome yesterday would have been if it were 15 degrees colder, hoping the Heady and Lezak are on to something with the cycling pattern because that one would be fun in the middle of winter. I almost posted that same thing yesterday! Perfect storm track with post frontal precip. Hopefully Heady’s pattern is legit and that comes back around in 45-60 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 5, 2018 Author Share Posted November 5, 2018 New Euro Seasonal is out on weather.us December and February look ok. January doesn't look great for our area. Generally near normal temps in Dec and Feb and above normal in Jan. Precip looks to be below normal though. The southern storm track is there at least. It we could get something like 02-03, that would be great though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 7, 2018 Author Share Posted November 7, 2018 Well, that's a nice 6-12" snow along the I-44 corridor next Monday on the 00z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 5 hours ago, JoMo said: Well, that's a nice 6-12" snow along the I-44 corridor next Monday on the 00z Euro. Looks like the 12z CMC has this as well. And the 06z FV3 to a lesser degree. Maybe something to watch. Im sure you’ll update us again after the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 7, 2018 Author Share Posted November 7, 2018 47 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: Looks like the 12z CMC has this as well. And the 06z FV3 to a lesser degree. Maybe something to watch. Im sure you’ll update us again after the 12z Euro. 12z Euro still has a system, but it's marginal temps overall, still snowfall roughly along and N of I-44 but not as much as it wants to be more of a mix. 12z UKMET was farther south with precip, not sure if snowfall or what, across AR. It's going to be interesting because it all comes down to the timing of 3 different pieces of energy and how they interact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 51 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: Looks like the 12z CMC has this as well. And the 06z FV3 to a lesser degree. Maybe something to watch. Im sure you’ll update us again after the 12z Euro. You can look at that on weather.us its the best free site I have found for the Euro. Has the Operational, control, and then the ensembles as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 8, 2018 Author Share Posted November 8, 2018 Go Canada? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 27 minutes ago, JoMo said: Go Canada? lol There was at least a few euro ensembles that looked similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will (little rock) Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 Looks like the 0z GFS is bringing back more moisture on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 12z Canadian for the win again. Looks like a trend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 6 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: 12z Canadian for the win again. Looks like a trend! Canadian is lovely indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 10, 2018 Author Share Posted November 10, 2018 Not bad looking on the 12z GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 Yes, seems like both American models trended to more snow on 12z today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 Did everyone move on to new hobbies after the last couple years? Pretty quiet around here with the potential for a decent early season system in ~36 hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 10, 2018 Author Share Posted November 10, 2018 5 hours ago, MoWeatherguy said: Yes, seems like both American models trended to more snow on 12z today. Yeah, hopefully everyone can get some mood snow at least before the Thanksgiving thaw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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