NwWhiteOut Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 46 here now, still pouring buckets of rain! Spoke to an old friend in kc earlier and he said it was freezing raining pretty bad up there(he's a lil north of kc outside its limits about 10 miles) and was at roughly 28 degrees or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 Brand new GFS is painting a dangerous picture for Tulsa and SW Missouri.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 Kiss of death WWA just got put up for here from 9pm to 6am for a glazing of ice possible lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 Got a glaze up here but it looks like the precip is shifting east faster than models indicated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 36 now and still pouring the rain, might add the forecast just keeps non stop changing too from tulsa. Must be hard to predict these types of situations!! Says no freezing rain until after 3am up until or later than noon tomorrow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 The GFS is usually not this crazy about freezing rain accumulation, but the NWS doesn't appear to be overly concerned, with just a winter weather advisory. What's the deal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Not confident in precip amounts or temp. I would lean toward colder than shown for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 25 minutes ago, Chinook said: The GFS is usually not this crazy about freezing rain accumulation, but the NWS doesn't appear to be overly concerned, with just a winter weather advisory. What's the deal? All that is is modeled precip amounts from the moment the temp drops to 32 or below, with no consideration for rates (heavier rates tend to have more runoff) or whether temps are more like 31-32 or in the 20s. They give an idea of where icing may occur but otherwise I would not take them literally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Temp. here has been holding steady and not budging now for a few hours, right at 36. Still raining but no where near as heavy as it was earlier And 30 minutes later the rain has picked up again and the temp has dropped to 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Well that advisory busted yet again last night lol(at least for fayetteville here), the ground was just too warm. Literally as all that rain ended right around midnight the temp dropped to 30. Still at 31 degrees and just a raw miserable day again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 It is a really, REALLY raw, cold day out there. It is 22 F here and the wind just cuts right through you. Nothing is falling from the sky yet, but it's close. You can feel it. FYI, it sounds like sleet rather than freezing rain has been the predominant precipitation for everybody to our south and west. I don't know if that will translate all the way here or toward Tulsa and beyond but I suspect it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 I've been watching the HRRR ice totals slowly creep closer and higher in the Tulsa area, going to be a fine line(as usual). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 32 minutes ago, NJ_Ken said: It is a really, REALLY raw, cold day out there. It is 22 F here and the wind just cuts right through you. Nothing is falling from the sky yet, but it's close. You can feel it. FYI, it sounds like sleet rather than freezing rain has been the predominant precipitation for everybody to our south and west. I don't know if that will translate all the way here or toward Tulsa and beyond but I suspect it will. I expect sleet to be the main ptype for most of central Oklahoma. Thickness values are lower today than they were yesterday when we saw a lot of sleet. Though the convective influence will be less today so that may offset a bit. Either way, based on current radar I doubt any areas in central Oklahoma will get more than 0.25” qpf. The heavy precip sheild is mostly skirting through southern Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 1/2 inch of freezing rain in Tulsa as evening rush hour is out would be a nightmare. The HRRR just keep pumping up Tulsa's numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southplains_loop.php Honest question, should we be concerned here in Tulsa? That's a very large band of heavy precip headed our way and it's still 27 degrees here in Tulsa. Does the High res tend to overdo amounts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Temps running about +1 compared to the 17z HRRR. HRRR doesn't typically overdue freezing rain from what I remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Precip started on the north side of OKC at around 12:20pm. It has been light but steady. For the first few minutes it was only freezing rain but sleet quickly began to mix in. I would say it is a 50-50 mix right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Been mostly sleet here in the south okc metro. Roads are completely covered white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Just now, WhiteoutWX said: Been mostly sleet here in the south okc metro. Roads are completely covered white. I can verify this. I am on the south side at the moment running an errand. 100% sleet and coming down at a pretty good clip. The ride home looks to be... umm... interesting. I should be able to get a pretty good idea of how good or bad the roads are across the metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 1 hour ago, StormChazer said: https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southplains_loop.php Honest question, should we be concerned here in Tulsa? That's a very large band of heavy precip headed our way and it's still 27 degrees here in Tulsa. Does the High res tend to overdo amounts? It sure looks like that mass of heavy precipitation has it sights set on Tulsa. If not Tulsa, somebody very close to Tulsa is going to get walloped. This is definitely one of those times to pray for sleet rather than freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Not sure what will come of this later for here, I been watching radars today and noticed all that stuff you guys are getting over there in Oklahoma! Tulsa has not updated the forecast for here in a long time so maybe they are once again lost in the model shuffle who knows(says 40 percent chance of stuff, rain for tonight/today). High was expected to be 36 here today but been sitting at 31 all day now. We look to either just get missed once again lol tonight here or get in on the action also, time will tell...jeez I really am desperate for anything at this point lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Tulsa NWS posted this earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 It seems like it changed back over from sleet to freezing rain in Norman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Started freezing raining here just now, still at 31. Tulsa seems to think no no for here again but we will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Just got home driving from the far south side of OKC to the far north side of OKC, mostly on Lake Hefner Parkway. All roads (including highways) had a solid coating of sleet. Traffic was slow but moving. Clearly, a lot of people started plotting their escape from work as soon as the precip kicked off so 3 pm seemed like the height of rush hour. As I got close to home, it seemed like freezing rain was starting to mix back in. If so... and if that continues... I would expect that roads will go from kind of crappy to absolutely horrendous in very short order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Tulsa traffic is a nightmare right now! I'm sitting on highway 75 coming out of downtown...just passed accidents in a 4 mile stretch. Freezing rain with a few sleet pellets mixed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Advisory here til 6am, heres the kicker and weird thing yet again....This much moisture, watching the giant donut hole form over my immediate area and just north/south and east!!! This seems to be the case and what has been happening all winter with these storms and it really has me going bonkers trying to figure out what causes it to happen! Maybe it will fill in IDK lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 I'm no met and perhaps I'm looking at it wrong but it appears the HRRR is showing another batch of freezing precip tomorrow heading into the OKC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 An extremely rare (and pretty amazing) weather phenomenon in okc tonight. The cold north wind across Lakes Hefner and Overholser is creating a narrow streamer of lake effect snow south of each lake. It's not Buffalo or anything but, as I understand, close to an inch of snow has accumulated in bands 1/4 mile wide and 8 to 10 miles long. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 Severe Thunderstorm Warning from OUN... with sleet OUN Tweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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