GSwizzle83 Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 There is a significant difference between the NAM, GFS, and EURO in terms of ice accumulation beginning tomorrow through Thursday across a good chunk of especially Missouri. I am not sure what to really follow. The NAM seems to be super aggressive. The GFS keeps the freezing line way north and the EURO is in between. This makes a huge difference in temps and sensible weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 Where was all of this moisture when it was cold tons of rain in the forecast! Been having downpours, thunder and lightning all morning here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 3 hours ago, GSwizzle83 said: There is a significant difference between the NAM, GFS, and EURO in terms of ice accumulation beginning tomorrow through Thursday across a good chunk of especially Missouri. I am not sure what to really follow. The NAM seems to be super aggressive. The GFS keeps the freezing line way north and the EURO is in between. This makes a huge difference in temps and sensible weather. The GFS does not handle the cold air well on the 12z run...NAM seems to handle it the best. The GFS initialized (12z) with 59 degrees in Wichita, when in reality it was 63 degrees. At 15z, the GFS had it at 37 degrees, when in reality it was 34. By 18z, 30 mins from now, the GFS predicts a temperature of 44 degrees. Wichita is currently at 31. The 12z NAM initialized much better. At 12z, it initialized with 61 degrees. At 15z, it had 32. It is predicting an 18z temp of 32 degrees for the top of the hour. Probably best to follow short range meso models for tracking the cold front and temps. As for precip, it would appear the NAM has been most consistent in that area regarding big ZR totals, but there are questions remaining on how shallow the cold air will be and if the precip falls heavy enough that it doesn't accumulate and warms the column from the top-down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 Yikes going to be close tomorrow night guys! Now says 1-2" of rain at 33 degrees, earlier Tulsa said 35-37!! Thankfully if we do get below freezing or just at the ground is very warm again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 This evening's 0Z NAM, 3KMNAM, and GFS indicate the potential for a significant ice storm across parts of the Big Country, Northwest Texas, into portions of Oklahoma. I haven't looked farther north/east. I wouldn't be surprised to see some winter storm watches (prelude to any ice storm warnings) in the Tuesday morning packages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 The front has been literally hovering in my backyard all night. It was 44 F when I went to bed. It is now 68 F. El Reno and Guthrie, both less than 30 miles away, are at 37 F! Edit: and just like that, the front is heading south again. Literally minutes later, it is back down to 37 F in my backyard on the north side of OKC. Edit #2: Wow. A thunderstorm popped up just to our west and it is nasty out there. 34 F with hail and a few rumbles of thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 1 hour ago, NJ_Ken said: The front has been literally hovering in my backyard all night. It was 44 F when I went to bed. It is now 68 F. El Reno and Guthrie, both less than 30 miles away, are at 37 F! Edit: and just like that, the front is heading south again. Literally minutes later, it is back down to 37 F in my backyard on the north side of OKC. Wild ride at my house last night.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 And now from 69.6 to 49 in 18 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 1 hour ago, NJ_Ken said: The front has been literally hovering in my backyard all night. It was 44 F when I went to bed. It is now 68 F. El Reno and Guthrie, both less than 30 miles away, are at 37 F! Edit: and just like that, the front is heading south again. Literally minutes later, it is back down to 37 F in my backyard on the north side of OKC. Edit #2: Wow. A thunderstorm popped up just to our west and it is nasty out there. 34 F with hail and a few rumbles of thunder. Been a fascinating forecast the past 24 hours. Models have been playing catch up to the frontal position the whole time (per usual) but this event has been impressive in that even the usually better performing high res guidance have been busting pretty badly with the frontal position even at a couple hour lead times. It now looks like a potentially more impactful ice event across northern and even central Oklahoma than it looked just 12 hours ago as the front sneaks south behind the departing precipitation today and now the next wave tomorrow is looking a bit more robust and needs to be watched closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 Wow, this is a sharp a front as you'll see. 30 degree difference here in Tulsa and Skiatook....that's a short drive. Things are going to get interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 54 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said: Been a fascinating forecast the past 24 hours. Models have been playing catch up to the frontal position the whole time (per usual) but this event has been impressive in that even the usually better performing high res guidance have been busting pretty badly with the frontal position even at a couple hour lead times. It now looks like a potentially more impactful ice event across northern and even central Oklahoma than it looked just 12 hours ago as the front sneaks south behind the departing precipitation today and now the next wave tomorrow is looking a bit more robust and needs to be watched closely. To your point, the Euro is showing Ice Storm warning totals across the Kansas Turnpike corridor on Wednesday night into Thursday morning: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 Tulsa NWS with a new Winter Weather Advisory basically along and NW of I44. 31.4 degree drop just S of Collinsville since 7:35. Temp now at 38.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 32 F here in OKC and still raining, occasionally fairly heavy. Nothing seems to be freezing... yet, but it looks to be darn close. Thank God for those few minutes in the 60s early this am. So far, that has been our saving grace. Edit: I should add that NWS has pushed today's advisories another tier of counties southward. It now includes all of the OKC metro. I suspect somebody just north and/or west of me is getting it good. I am at 32 F but the next mesonet sites to my north and west are in the mid 20s F and it looks to be raining at both of those sites too. Edit #2: LOL. I need to look out the window more often. As I was typing in that last edit, we went over to moderate sleet here. My car actually has a half-inch or so of sleet on it already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 Freezing rain in Kansas City metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 1 hour ago, NJ_Ken said: 32 F here in OKC and still raining, occasionally fairly heavy. Nothing seems to be freezing... yet, but it looks to be darn close. Thank God for those few minutes in the 60s early this am. So far, that has been our saving grace. Edit: I should add that NWS has pushed today's advisories another tier of counties southward. It now includes all of the OKC metro. I suspect somebody just north and/or west of me is getting it good. I am at 32 F but the next mesonet sites to my north and west are in the mid 20s F and it looks to be raining at both of those sites too. Edit #2: LOL. I need to look out the window more often. As I was typing in that last edit, we went over to moderate sleet here. My car actually has a half-inch or so of sleet on it already. Just rain here in Tulsa still, but the temp is steadily dropping, an interesting forecast to be sure. Keep those updates coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 I'm starting to think we may get some ice storm warnings issued to the NW of Tulsa Metro area. Down in DFW they extended their flood watch to the west because their expecting that heavier precip to shift some to the west, if that plays out, that area of precip will make its way up to NE Oklahoma after the freezing temps are in place. Just my two cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 42 minutes ago, StormChazer said: I'm starting to think we may get some ice storm warnings issued to the NW of Tulsa Metro area. Down in DFW they extended their flood watch to the west because their expecting that heavier precip to shift some to the west, if that plays out, that area of precip will make its way up to NE Oklahoma after the freezing temps are in place. Just my two cents. Pics on Twitter in Stillawater water showing what looks like near 1/2 inch of ice on trees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 Doesn't surprise me, and with another shield of precip headed that way with temps in the mid twenties, I find it hard to believe we won't see some ice storm warnings issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 21 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Doesn't surprise me, and with another shield of precip headed that way with temps in the mid twenties, I find it hard to believe we won't see some ice storm warnings issued. I'd say there may be a swath a couple counties wide stretching from SE OKC metro on ENE that may overlap with the cold air enough to meet the Ice Storm Warning threshold today, definitely if you include forecast amounts for tomorrow. But it is probably better to have separate headlines given the two events will be separated by nearly 24 hours. I think if the models had done a better job today in anticipating frontal positioning and precipitation amounts you would have seen the ice storm warnings in that narrow path I mentioned. But everyone has been playing catch up to this event. It might not be worth putting one out now given it will be ending by early this evening in most areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 Just a downpour of rain the last 10 minutes, temp was 70 now down to 58 in that time frame....crazy! Never ceases to amaze me how fast it can drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 All is quiet here. We are now getting occasional freezing drizzle but nothing more. The freezing drizzle has been perfect for turning sleet-covered back roads (and car windshields) into a half-inch thick sheet of ice. Arterial streets are mostly just wet. Still, I think the evening rush is going to be a mess. Because this event slipped through the cracks, a lot of people who typically stay home whenever there is snow or ice went to work. They are going to have a terrible time of it driving home. Worst of all, it would appear that a last round of precip is incoming now for Moore and Norman just in time for the evening rush. When sleet is in the mix, it is sometimes tricky to determine if the radar is showing heavy precipitation or just light sleet that is reflecting back strongly, but it could be a pretty good wallop for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said: Just a downpour of rain the last 10 minutes, temp was 70 now down to 58 in that time frame....crazy! Never ceases to amaze me how fast it can drop. In OKC, we had multiple 30-degree rises and drops in the last 24 hours, and that 30-drop this morning happened in minutes. I've never seen anything like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 33 in downtown Tulsa right now..temps are hanging on, but not sure for how long. Back windshield of my car is getting a glaze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, NJ_Ken said: In OKC, we had multiple 30-degree rises and drops in the last 24 hours, and that 30-drop this morning happened in minutes. I've never seen anything like it. Yea man it can be really insane out here how fast stuff can drop!!! I have seen it happen so many times, this is quick though as now I am down to 55 after typing my last message. Probably will be ok here as most this stuff will end before it gets too cold and the ground is warm but who really knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 10 minutes ago, ouamber said: 33 in downtown Tulsa right now..temps are hanging on, but not sure for how long. Back windshield of my car is getting a glaze. Seriously? Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 8 minutes ago, Weatherdemon said: Seriously? Wow Yea, OSU-Tulsa just closed and OU-Tulsa is closing early. 5pm traffic is going to be a nightmare. Just got home and watched a car spin off highway 75 south toward Jenks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 20, 2018 Author Share Posted February 20, 2018 Hanging around 33-34 here. HRRR has come in a bit more concerning in the coming hours when it comes to icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, JoMo said: Hanging around 33-34 here. HRRR has come in a bit more concerning in the coming hours when it comes to icing. Wouldn't surprise me to see some freezing drizzle sticking around after the main rain shield moves east tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 Up here in Columbia it's been a roller coaster ride also. Temps up and down big time. This morning about 10 we were dropping quickly, got down to 34-35 on campus, then we warmed up to 37 for about 3 hours now we are back to in the 34-35 range. Short term models are concerning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 Officially 32 in Tulsa now, still plenty more precip headed our way, plus the NAM and HRR indicating a decent surge of moisture for Wed night/Thurs morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now