StormChazer Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Well, I won't lie. This potential storm next weekend certainly has the look of the kind of storm that gives Oklahoma snow, unlike all the other storms with winter that gain steam just east of here. It's just refreshing to see a different setup for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 I’ll start paying closer attention if it is still on the models in 2 days. We’ve seen many a storm get dampened out on the models in the 6-10 day range this year. It’s been impossible getting it inside 5 days. So that’s my signal it may be legit if it can make it to day 5. For an example of how this goes wrong, look at the 00z GFS, or today’s 12z Euro. Northern stream crushes the southern wave, which has also been the theme this year with a Niña driven dominant northern stream. I’m just hoping for some precip of any kind at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 I may never get used to relative lack of snow here in Oklahoma, but I will say this: They sure know how to do a cold front. 63 F at 2 pm this afternoon; 53 F at 4 pm; 37 F now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 10, 2018 Author Share Posted February 10, 2018 Lots of freezing drizzle here, roads very slick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
garfan Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 Roads in and around the Joplin, MO area have deteriorated as they day has progressed. Freezing drizzle has been primary precipitation type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSwizzle83 Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 Yeah, it's like an ice skating rink. Trees have a nice glaze on them, too, here in Monett. Road temps are in the upper 20s. Will continue to cool overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 For the setup next week, I do think its real. The February SOI peaks is a very strong precipitation indicator in February/March out here, and its still -19 or -20 for February through the 10th. For 1932-2017, I know the odds of staying under 0.11 inches of precipitation in Albuquerque for five months in a row are long - like 300:1 long. Since we haven't had anything over 0.10" yet...for Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan, you gotta figure its coming soon. We've never gone over six months in a row where each month is <0.11". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 Amazing how these "downplayed" events turn out to be some of the worst! The one before this current event totally busted here, this one not so much! Everything has a solid glaze over it, the grass and trees are all white...very cool looking. Our saving grace so to speak was the warm temps the other day, the roads and sidewalks(for the most part) have been just wet all day and night. I just went for a small walk, sidewalks are all iced over now too...roads are still just wet for the most part minus the sides and bridges etc(the usual freeze over areas). Been about 30 all day and then dropped to the upper 20's early evening and held there all night, currently 26 here IMBY. This has for surely been the worst one of the winter season thus far, next weekend looks like it could be something too if it holds....probly will be the same like this one with the roads maybe though again cause of very warm spells this upcoming week! Be safe everyone, been seeing tons of reports of some bad accidents all night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 Late next week has gotten the attention of local Mets and Tulsa NWS. Looks like there is potential for as much as a 1/2 inch of ice. Not devastating but would be significant pain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 On 2/9/2018 at 2:21 PM, WhiteoutWX said: I’ll start paying closer attention if it is still on the models in 2 days. We’ve seen many a storm get dampened out on the models in the 6-10 day range this year. It’s been impossible getting it inside 5 days. So that’s my signal it may be legit if it can make it to day 5. For an example of how this goes wrong, look at the 00z GFS, or today’s 12z Euro. Northern stream crushes the southern wave, which has also been the theme this year with a Niña driven dominant northern stream. I’m just hoping for some precip of any kind at this point. 2 days later and like clockwork the models have dampened out the southern wave in favor of a more dominant northern stream. This winter has been very easy to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 15 hours ago, Weatherdemon said: Late next week has gotten the attention of local Mets and Tulsa NWS. Looks like there is potential for as much as a 1/2 inch of ice. Not devastating but would be significant pain. &^%$# Models hung on until Sun AM and now doing their thing and killing it... which has been accurate this close but still frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 I will say, the GFS has slowly been trending back north after its initial jump away from that ice storm in Oklahoma and Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 06Z on February 11th(the run that preceded the massive ice storm run in OK/TX. And here is today's 12Z run, which looks almost identical. I don't expect to see another run like Sunday's 12Z run, but it has slowly trended closer to it the past few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 Canadian has the storm with the snow/ice up in central to southern KS....with temps in northern and NE OK really close to freezing. Looks pretty good for rain..I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 A few pics guys/gals from the freezing drizzle event over the weekend, some of it melted off...will have to spread these out due to forum rules sorry. Originals are so much better(Im picky with my pics) but these are shrank way way down and lose details for the forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 Nice pics, we had the ever so slightest glaze here in the Tulsa area over the weekend. Some slick spots on Saturday night was the worst it got. So since every model shows a great storm until about 5 days out and then squashes it, do we have a different change in pattern coming up that might let me be a little more hopeful? Because I see a few ice storms on the horizon on the models but figure there's no point to even hope that we may see something if the overall upper pattern is the same. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 NWS in Tulsa has a great take for the next 10 or so days on the changing pattern. The ongoing pattern change will feature more troughing over the western U.S. and this looks to persist through at least early next week. This is a departure from what has been observed for much of the winter season and is likely to a more active flow regime. An initial influence of this unsettled pattern is the forecast Friday night into Saturday with latest data showing a more substantial post frontal precip band developing and passing mainly across southern portions of the forecast area. Current forecast will keep temps warm enough for all liquid but this time frame will need to be followed. Precip chances continue into early next week with moderating temps ahead of the next cold front possibly arriving toward the end of this forecast period. The pattern of troughing to our west and a reinforcing push of colder air early next week will be a focus for upcoming forecasts. Hopefully a sign that our winter precip drought has a better chance of coming to an end! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 10 minutes ago, StormChazer said: NWS in Tulsa has a great take for the next 10 or so days on the changing pattern. The ongoing pattern change will feature more troughing over the western U.S. and this looks to persist through at least early next week. This is a departure from what has been observed for much of the winter season and is likely to a more active flow regime. An initial influence of this unsettled pattern is the forecast Friday night into Saturday with latest data showing a more substantial post frontal precip band developing and passing mainly across southern portions of the forecast area. Current forecast will keep temps warm enough for all liquid but this time frame will need to be followed. Precip chances continue into early next week with moderating temps ahead of the next cold front possibly arriving toward the end of this forecast period. The pattern of troughing to our west and a reinforcing push of colder air early next week will be a focus for upcoming forecasts. Hopefully a sign that our winter precip drought has a better chance of coming to an end! Sounds promising but our chances feel to be almost up, yea we can get snow etc. in feb and march but that sun angle is starting to get high now and the temps get screwy melting stuff off very quickly. I wonder maybe if we can get a decent snow, just one plz lol, before this season ends! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 32 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Nice pics, we had the ever so slightest glaze here in the Tulsa area over the weekend. Some slick spots on Saturday night was the worst it got. So since every model shows a great storm until about 5 days out and then squashes it, do we have a different change in pattern coming up that might let me be a little more hopeful? Because I see a few ice storms on the horizon on the models but figure there's no point to even hope that we may see something if the overall upper pattern is the same. I would say the upcoming pattern on the surface looks much improved, with a deep trough in the West and ridging along the east coast. I’m worried though that these trough aren’t digging into the central US but instead are burying themselves along the west coast then weakening as they lift northeast. That pattern has the potential to leave the southern plains with quick shots at precip but nothing substantial in terms of drought busting precip. I’ll take the advertised upcoming pattern over the endless dry NW flow we have been stuck in for the past 3 months, but I’m hesitant to get too excited just yet about the prospects of widespread heavier precipitation, much less a widespread winter event. I wish I had something more optimistic to say but this winter just hasn’t wanted to cooperate on the whole! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 Yes it is a fundamental change. Southwest flow replaces northwest flow. Of course cold air has to be in place, waves timed right, etc. Sorry I don't have the paper author and title, but here is an oldie but a goodie. February is still game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 There is a plot of snowiest month of the year (climatological) done by climatologist Brian Brettschneider on this page. Scroll towards the bottom of the page. http://us-climate.blogspot.com/search?updated-max=2014-10-11T23:33:00-07:00&max-results=10&start=40&by-date=false 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 Forgot to add this for you all(also have added pics up above if you are interested) but a short video in 4k of a small hike I did after the freezing drizzle event. I almost fell a few times doing that video lol but really got out and enjoyed stuff! I still wish we would get a good snow so I can really take some cool vids and pics. I tend to talk a lot when I'm nervous(not use to talking to a camera still lol) so mind that. After the freezing drizzle event, VIDEO LINK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSwizzle83 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 The EURO for the past eight or so runs has been extremely consistent in putting down some scary ice totals across parts of MO/KS in the Tuesday-Wednesday time period next week (1-2" and plus in some cases of ice). None of the area offices seem to be biting much on it. Is there anything synoptically that would speak against such a setup. The GFS, for the record, has nothing at all in terms of frozen precip during this period and keeps the precip shunted mainly to the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 This is what Tulsa NWS had to say about that today. Granted, it doesn't show as much ice here as it does in KS and MO, it still shows a few hours of moderate sleet/Frz Rain. "A cold front will move across the area late Monday night and Tuesday, with showers and thunderstorms becoming more numerous near and behind the front. Some models indicate the potential for temperatures to fall low enough for some freezing rain or sleet on the back side of the precipitation shield late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Confidence is low in this however, so will not mention wintry precipitation at this time." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 It sleeted for about 5-10 minutes today. I guess that counts for something. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSwizzle83 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 FWIW, EURO continues to stick with this solution. It hasn't wavered in several days. The GFS has trended that direction, but clears precip out quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 NAM hammering parts of E OK Tues night into Wed with accumulating freezing rain to 1.39 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSwizzle83 Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 10 hours ago, Weatherdemon said: NAM hammering parts of E OK Tues night into Wed with accumulating freezing rain to 1.39 inches. And just as the NAM and GFS begin to move toward the EURO solution... it sort of changes. Will be interesting to see if the EURO's moves are a one run thing or the beginning of a new trend. I am personally okay not receiving 1"+ of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 The Nam just out down a foot of sleet here in the Tulsa area. Obviously that would never happen, but even a fourth of that would turn the roads into an ice skating rink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 3 hours ago, GSwizzle83 said: And just as the NAM and GFS begin to move toward the EURO solution... it sort of changes. Will be interesting to see if the EURO's moves are a one run thing or the beginning of a new trend. I am personally okay not receiving 1"+ of ice. Neither am I. Tulsa NWS sticking with hundredths of an inch but no amount of freezing rain is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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