NwWhiteOut Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Ditto, I just dont see anything happening or this wonky pattern changing. Another half inch to probly end the season lol. Just non stop warm, cold, chilly dry rinse wash and repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSwizzle83 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Interesting that the EURO has a stronger winter storm Tuesday/Wednesday than the GFS. That tends to lead more credence that there might be something there. Not that I want it. EURO lays down some horrific icing numbers. Of course those are just one run's numbers... but I don't want that much ice ever. 2007 was enough for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 3, 2018 Author Share Posted February 3, 2018 The area around Tues is becoming increasingly interesting, especially for those in KS/MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 1 minute ago, JoMo said: The area around Tues is becoming increasingly interesting, especially for those in KS/MO. Looks like a good rain event for here, tulsa says maybe over to ZR and then sleet/snow....maybe lol for tuesday night/wed. am time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 If you take the general ideas of the 06z/12z GFS, you might start to expect a 0.05" to 0.25" freezing rain for southwest Missouri. So, that's not crazy (as the Euro shows?) but may be quite dangerous for vehicles anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 The previous few days of GFS runs all showed KC getting a healthy amount of snow (3"+, something KC hasn't seen in four years)... then the 18Z run comes out and shifts everything further south. Probably just a weird run, but it is definitely odd to see such a shift in a <84 hour forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 50 minutes ago, jojo762 said: The previous few days of GFS runs all showed KC getting a healthy amount of snow (3"+, something KC hasn't seen in four years)... then the 18Z run comes out and shifts everything further south. Probably just a weird run, but it is definitely odd to see such a shift in a <84 hour forecast. I think the south trend has been apparent for a few runs now. Not feeling good about seeing anything in Columbia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 11 hours ago, MUWX said: I think the south trend has been apparent for a few runs now. Not feeling good about seeing anything in Columbia. The overall trend has indeed been for the heavier swath of snow to be a bit further south, but that specific run was a bit more dramatic with its shift and knocking down of totals. Likewise the very next run shifted back north. Probably won't have anything nailed down better until Monday night, or even Tuesday when we know where the best frontogenesis is occurring. As per usual with winter systems now, my expectations for this storm have gradually kept declining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 4 hours ago, jojo762 said: The overall trend has indeed been for the heavier swath of snow to be a bit further south, but that specific run was a bit more dramatic with its shift and knocking down of totals. Likewise the very next run shifted back north. Probably won't have anything nailed down better until Monday night, or even Tuesday when we know where the best frontogenesis is occurring. As per usual with winter systems now, my expectations for this storm have gradually kept declining. Did you get anything this morning? It's not going to amount to much in Columbia, but we are getting moderate snow right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 4, 2018 Author Share Posted February 4, 2018 Flizzard going on here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 4, 2018 Author Share Posted February 4, 2018 Moderate snow now, quickly accumulating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Meh lol...enjoy again JoMo! I did see a rogue flurry here off and on, same ole same ole though haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 3 hours ago, MUWX said: Did you get anything this morning? It's not going to amount to much in Columbia, but we are getting moderate snow right now Yeah, I ended up with 2-2.5" in Overland Park... accumulated fairly quickly within about 2 1/2 to 3 hours. Always great to go from expecting a dusting to getting a couple inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 4 hours ago, NwWhiteOut said: Meh lol...enjoy again JoMo! I did see a rogue flurry here off and on, same ole same ole though haha Yah same ole song and dance here in NWA. Just came back from driving in heavy snow around the MO state line up to Monett area. Maybe an inch or so there. Not many flakes fell here lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Got 1/2" here . Not much but was fun watching the snow fall . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSwizzle83 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Wound up with about 3/4" here in Monett but the roads sort of flash froze making for those horrific accident scenes all over the news and social media. Tomorrow's system confounds me. I will be glad when we can get it fully sampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 8 hours ago, GSwizzle83 said: Wound up with about 3/4" here in Monett but the roads sort of flash froze making for those horrific accident scenes all over the news and social media. Tomorrow's system confounds me. I will be glad when we can get it fully sampled. What a difference a few days make... Just a few model runs ago we had a full on lee-side cyclone with a relatively strong band of frontogenesis to the north resulting in a nearly all-day snow event with an impressive band of snow (what could've been 6"+) somewhere across KS/MO, now we are left with no lee-side cyclone, a fast-moving open wave, and modest mid-level frontogenesis resulting in a few hours of snow with MAYBE 3" for someone, probably north of I70. Sad, after it had looked so good not too long ago. That's anything past 2011 for ya... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 WWA from 3pm till midnight tonight for freezing rain and sleet...lets see if this verifies lol. Todays high says 38 but sitting at 25 currently here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSwizzle83 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 I would be worried about ice problems in NWA if I were you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 20 hours ago, jojo762 said: What a difference a few days make... Just a few model runs ago we had a full on lee-side cyclone with a relatively strong band of frontogenesis to the north resulting in a nearly all-day snow event with an impressive band of snow (what could've been 6"+) somewhere across KS/MO, now we are left with no lee-side cyclone, a fast-moving open wave, and modest mid-level frontogenesis resulting in a few hours of snow with MAYBE 3" for someone, probably north of I70. Sad, after it had looked so good not too long ago. That's anything past 2011 for ya... I feel you on this one. I'm not sure we are even going to see flakes on Columbia. The weekend storm looks interesting, but so did this one. Probably going to fall apart by Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Just had some freezing drizzle here in downtown Tulsa. 27 degrees. NWS expanded the advisory as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 23 minutes ago, ouamber said: Just had some freezing drizzle here in downtown Tulsa. 27 degrees. NWS expanded the advisory as well. Been freezing raining here for a bit now off and on. Never broke past 28 here today, was odd though cause it wasnt freezing on anything at all for a while there now all of a sudden it is. Advisory up til midnight here, be careful out there tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Sunday I was sitting at a 90% of snow for today, with 2-4 inches in the description. Now I'm at 30%, no accumulation, and I think that's too high. I would be shocked if I see flurries at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Left downtown around 3:15 and the IDL was really slick. HWY 75 N had slick bridges and a couple wrecks. One closed 75 SB. 51 west was closed for a bit too. Sidewalks were slick when I got home as well. Things are looking better for roads at last for the N half of Tulsa as dry air works in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 5:30pm we have dreezing frizzle occurring now . Roads in our area were treated earlier today so not slick yet . Sidewalks and hand rail are getting slick though . I'm glad I have no reason to be on the road tonight . For those who have to be on the road, I trust you to be safe . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Just misty here now, had 1 round of heavier drizzle this afternoon that lasted about 15 minutes lol. Odd stuff, sticking on elevated surfaces only even with it being fairly cold again recently. Looks like the bulk of stuff is just south of here....anyone else ready for spring? Just a boring winter with non stop misses so I'm done, lost all hope now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Does anyone know if OKC or TUL are on track to have the least snow in a season or year?? I feel like it is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSwizzle83 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 This seems to want to be the year of the ice. Not major ice storms that cripple regions for days or weeks, but regular freezing drizzle/light freezing rain events. I try not to get too worked up about these events so far in advance, but this one is a bit different because of the prolonged nature of the event signaled on the models. Will see if they dry out as they get closer to the event, but so far there seems to be a slight uptick in amounts each time. EURO is putting down .2" of ice across much of S MO. NAM seems to concur with greater than .1" amounts. Will see I guess. Model watching continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Just poking in here to drool over the 12Z GFS. Now back to our scheduled disappointment XD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Twitter thread might be better news for Heartland snow lovers than me over in Tenn. Wavelength may be shorter than the January attempts (me). See his whole Twitter thread about cold in general.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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