MUWX Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 34 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said: The models were showing something last week for the 28th of this month werent they? Im not buying these long range things lol, nothing ever seems to happen anyway with the luck we all have! Still sitting at the measly half inch nonsense for the season. Waiting on a miracle now lol I think the system that models were showing on the 28th are now showing for the 2nd. Timing differences. I don't know that but it seems possible 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 8 minutes ago, MUWX said: I think the system that models were showing on the 28th are now showing for the 2nd. Timing differences. I don't know that but it seems possible Yeah, that's what I was thinking too. I'm pretty sure this is the same system it was showing earlier, just bumped back a couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 The Feb 1st timeframe has been hinted at by the EPS and GEFS for a couple of days now. The weekend of the 27th is a different trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSwizzle83 Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Lock the 12z GFS in please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 24, 2018 Author Share Posted January 24, 2018 RIP Joel Taylor from Storm Chasers. Bummed me out to hear that news tonight. 00z GFS still looks interesting for the upcoming Day 8-10 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Just looked at the GFS and Euro and it disgusts me! Once again...our best chance at a storm or any moisture is being pulled east and south. I thought there was supposed to be a pattern change??? If we get nothing for that February 1st storm...I'm genuinely worried that will be out last chance at winter. Terrible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 11 minutes ago, ouamber said: Just looked at the GFS and Euro and it disgusts me! Once again...our best chance at a storm or any moisture is being pulled east and south. I thought there was supposed to be a pattern change??? If we get nothing for that February 1st storm...I'm genuinely worried that will be out last chance at winter. Terrible! At this point, anything putting a dent in the drought is a win. This could be a bad one.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 5 minutes ago, rolltide_130 said: At this point, anything putting a dent in the drought is a win. This could be a bad one.. 5 minutes ago, rolltide_130 said: At this point, anything putting a dent in the drought is a win. This could be a bad one.. Yea Oklahoma and Texas is hurting! We need moisture of any kind! Where is this SER that is supposed to be in Ninas?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 I wouldn't get too discouraged right now, it's still 8-10 days out, I'm more comfortable being outside the bullseye, than in it at the moment. I'm still optimistic about this one(maybe foolishly so, but I'm a glass half full kinda guy). One thing is for sure, we need moisture, this drought it getting irritating. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 It's still more than week out so a lot could change. But, the EPS and GEFS means for the QPF swaths are not encouraging for Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSwizzle83 Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 The news about Joel Taylor is absolutely heartbreaking! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 2 hours ago, bdgwx said: It's still more than week out so a lot could change. But, the EPS and GEFS means for the QPF swaths are not encouraging for Oklahoma. Until we get the mean trough axis over the Rockies and not over the Mississippi nothing will change. Northwest flow is DRY for the plains in almost any month, but especially in the winter. Until that changes expect no significant precipitation over the majority of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, and Arkansas. People looking at specific model runs showing precip here and there are ignoring the overall pattern which indeed has not changed since the beginning of November. Which is why basically every storm shown 8+ days out has disappeared or shifted east or south as it gets closer in time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 3 hours ago, WhiteoutWX said: Until we get the mean trough axis over the Rockies and not over the Mississippi nothing will change. Northwest flow is DRY for the plains in almost any month, but especially in the winter. Until that changes expect no significant precipitation over the majority of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, and Arkansas. People looking at specific model runs showing precip here and there are ignoring the overall pattern which indeed has not changed since the beginning of November. Which is why basically every storm shown 8+ days out has disappeared or shifted east or south as it gets closer in time. Post of the month, thank you! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 It is amazing how non-canonical this La Nina is to date. I know since the 23rd, the cold anomalies in the East have burned off more, I checked Philly, they're back to -1.5F for January, with some days coming near 60F by the end of the month. I'm down to +2.5F or so for January, as the nights have been pretty cold with less than 0.1" of precipitation September 30th. My winter outlook is doing pretty well for Western precip, I had the Northern Rockies slightly wet and a small area of wetness near Vegas/Los Angeles, which may verify, they're average so far from the one big storm earlier in January. Had the Midwest wet...yet to verify. Everyone else dry. Had the East +0 to +2F for winter against 1951-2010, which doesn't look terrible given the current thaw, I think Philly is -1.4F winter to date against 1981-2010, assuming its closer to -1F or less against 1951-2010. I threw 1932-33 in on the chance Agung erupted as a VEI 5, since 1932-33 was a volcanic winter, but it made my outlook for the West 2-3F too cold everywhere. Texas, Arkansas and Maine the only places nationally that are cold AND wetter than normal to date. Dakotas and Northern California were the winners last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSwizzle83 Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 On 1/24/2018 at 12:05 PM, WhiteoutWX said: Until we get the mean trough axis over the Rockies and not over the Mississippi nothing will change. Northwest flow is DRY for the plains in almost any month, but especially in the winter. Until that changes expect no significant precipitation over the majority of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, and Arkansas. People looking at specific model runs showing precip here and there are ignoring the overall pattern which indeed has not changed since the beginning of November. Which is why basically every storm shown 8+ days out has disappeared or shifted east or south as it gets closer in time. EURO trends would definitely bear this out with the Feb 1 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Canadian and GFS showing some possible snow in NE OK/NW AR/SW MO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSwizzle83 Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 45 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Canadian and GFS showing some possible snow in NE OK/NW AR/SW MO. I have put my faith in the GFS before only to get burned. EURO is going drier and drier each run. Develops a TN Valley winter storm instead. *sigh* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 Next week storm another solid event for points just east and North of most on here. SMDH same pattern won't change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSwizzle83 Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 What Thursday winter storm??? WOW! Poof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 1 hour ago, GSwizzle83 said: What Thursday winter storm??? WOW! Poof. Yes, just like WhiteoutWx said above, the same thing has happened all winter. These patterns are repeating, and horrible for this region. Maybe next yr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 54 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: Yes, just like WhiteoutWx said above, the same thing has happened all winter. These patterns are repeating, and horrible for this region. Maybe next yr. This winter really hasn't been that bad in south west Missouri. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 9 hours ago, MoWeatherguy said: Yes, just like WhiteoutWx said above, the same thing has happened all winter. These patterns are repeating, and horrible for this region. Maybe next yr. Jeez pathetic, how many years now have we been saying this? lol....My hopes are gone for this winter idk, yea I know feb. and march can bring stuff but I just dont see it happening unless this pattern can change. These storms are just cutting too far south or north this season again, and is why my homestate of south jersey has had a decent winter yet again for what the 3rd or 4th season in a row! When these storms cut far south, they break off then ride up the coast to dump on the east coast it seems forming noreasters....its classic and seems to always hold true ever since I was a youngin for them there. Yea they have had some warm spells too this season but nothing like this place has been lol. Hell I remember eh maybe 3 weeks ago or whatever it was my dad was showing me pics of the bays completely frozen!! Yea its cold when salt water freezes lol, saw the rivers(brackish water) freeze sometimes when I was young but never the back bay areas that feed off the ocean freezing that bad!!! If I can find those pics again on facebook I will snag a few and post them here, it was cool looking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 And just like that the GFS and Canadian go playing with my heart. GFS shows Northeast OK getting a couple inches on Sunday, Candian on Monday. Wonder how the Euro will feel about it. Won't surprise me if the Euro stands its ground like it has with this upcoming system(and been right about so far), and then the other come in line with in the next couple days. That being said, for a system 6-7 days out, I'm surprised to see the two move back into a wetter solution for OK, that hasn't been the pattern this winter. It's just 1 run though. I'm curious what the Euro will say, and then see if there's consistency. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 18 minutes ago, StormChazer said: And just like that the GFS and Canadian go playing with my heart. GFS shows Northeast OK getting a couple inches on Sunday, Candian on Monday. Wonder how the Euro will feel about it. Won't surprise me if the Euro stands its ground like it has with this upcoming system(and been right about so far), and then the other come in line with in the next couple days. That being said, for a system 6-7 days out, I'm surprised to see the two move back into a wetter solution for OK, that hasn't been the pattern this winter. It's just 1 run though. I'm curious what the Euro will say, and then see if there's consistency. I have zero confidence that any of these storms coming from the NW actually materialize. We've seen quite a few of these 5-7 days out and then they vanish. Surely we hit one at some point, right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 I hear you. There was that one storm that brought a good snow to Southeast Kansas, Northeast Oklahoma, and Southwest Missouri. So every once in a while this season it has panned out. So fingers crossed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 This run of the GFS looks pretty much identical to this afternoon's run on the Canadian. After the front passes through, a large area of light snow looks to move in Sun night/Mon morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Can we start a drought contest lol? Guess the next widespread 0.25”+ event. This pattern is getting ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Wowzers. Not sure i'm really on board the hype train but 00Z GFS went all in on a big-league snow storm for NE KS/ N MO (including the entire KC metro) for Monday night/Tuesday. Widespread double digit totals. Pretty impressive run, to say the least. But if I have learned anything over the past few years, it is to take more of a tempered approach when it comes to model-output for snow... FWIW, 00z GEM also agrees on a decent snow event for generally the same area, but to a much lesser extent than the GFS. Probably worth noting as well that most of the 00z GEFS members disagreed with OP run on the idea of any kind of major event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 I give up. See you guys in the spring barring some sort of miracle this pattern stops. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 1 hour ago, StormChazer said: I give up. See you guys in the spring barring some sort of miracle this pattern stops. Agree, another atrocious winter. 3 in a row. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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