MO/KS/AR/OK 2019-2020 Winter Wonderland Discussion

[Cerakoter1984]

12 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Any of you use Weather Trends 360? Don't subscribe, but they linked this on Twitter yesterday - thought it might make some of you happy.

It makes me really happy but also disappointed. 200% more than last year is still below normal. Lol

[MoWeatherguy]

8 hours ago, Cerakoter1984 said:

It makes me really happy but also disappointed. 200% more than last year is still below normal. Lol

Hard to get excited about snow around here anymore.   Last day in Fayetteville with greater than .5 snow was back in March 2015.  SMDH

[Cerakoter1984]

On 11/1/2017 at 0:05 PM, MoWeatherguy said:

Hard to get excited about snow around here anymore.   Last day in Fayetteville with greater than .5 snow was back in March 2015.  SMDH

I believe this year will be 100% different than the last 2. I think that we are in for a pretty wild winter around these parts.

[raindancewx]

The thing about this winter is I think there are three components to the pattern:

1) Cold interior West, very warm elsewhere, wet NW, near avg moisture SW (Sept-Oct)

2) Warm SW/SE, Cold Midwest, Mild NW/NE, Wet South (June) 

3) Mild/Dry SW, Very Hot NW, Coldl/Dry (MW/NE), Mild/Wet (SE)

[JoMo]

At least it felt like fall today. Boring boring weather otherwise so far. A lot less 'snowstorms' showing up on the GFS back in Oct and early Nov this year, last year it kept showing them, of course it was wrong, so maybe the opposite happening this year will be a positive moving forward. 

Just a heads up for those that don't know. Ryan Maue (formerly of WxBell) has been posting his model maps at "http://wx.graphics/" 

Euro snowfall, precip, temp anomalies, etc..  Even the EPS maps. 

[raindancewx]

On 10/31/2017 at 0:07 PM, Cerakoter1984 said:

Gonna throw this map up. I'm still leaning pretty hard towards this.

I'm somewhat familiar with ONI/PDO/AMO/Solar values for years before 1950, but I generally forbid myself from using anything before 1931 because there is no snow data for where I live, so its kind of pointless to look at for me. But I did want to ask you...what do you like about 1917-18?

[Cerakoter1984]

15 hours ago, raindancewx said:

I'm somewhat familiar with ONI/PDO/AMO/Solar values for years before 1950, but I generally forbid myself from using anything before 1931 because there is no snow data for where I live, so its kind of pointless to look at for me. But I did want to ask you...what do you like about 1917-18?

N. Pac configuration and solar mostly. It was a strong La Nina but it fits an overall pattern of years similar to 2010-11, 1988-89 also. There's some huge potential for major pattern amplification and blocking once we get a little way into winter and all throughout the rest of it. That also shares the characteristics of 1917-18.

[WhiteoutWX]

Building consensus for a period of increased blocking in the 7+ day range. Currently the position of the block looks to focus the core of the cold to our east but overall I’d say blocking showing up is a good sign heading into winter. Definitely a completely different look than the past couple Novembers.

[Cerakoter1984]

6 hours ago, WhiteoutWX said:

Building consensus for a period of increased blocking in the 7+ day range. Currently the position of the block looks to focus the core of the cold to our east but overall I’d say blocking showing up is a good sign heading into winter. Definitely a completely different look than the past couple Novembers.

We're heading into a pretty good spot for being November. Hoping for a bit of retrogression after this pattern sets up.

[raindancewx]

My winter analogs weren't really "designed" for November, but they had everyone east of a line from Biloxi to Billings cold, and everyone west of that line warm. So far the cold has been more centered over Montana, but it does look like it will drain East for a while now.

[WhiteoutWX]

00z GFS continues with an extremely impressive blocking pattern in the long range. By the end of the run has TWO closed upper highs in Canada/Greenland with the PV basically trapped over the Great Lakes. Given support from the GEFS and the Euro/EPS this is about as encouraging a sign as one can get for cold/snow at lower latitudes, especially if we can keep this blockiness into December. 

[Cerakoter1984]

2 hours ago, WhiteoutWX said:

00z GFS continues with an extremely impressive blocking pattern in the long range. By the end of the run has TWO closed upper highs in Canada/Greenland with the PV basically trapped over the Great Lakes. Given support from the GEFS and the Euro/EPS this is about as encouraging a sign as one can get for cold/snow at lower latitudes, especially if we can keep this blockiness into December. 

Yes. Going to be hard to see a late fall pattern better than that. When retrogression begins,....  boom. This winter could be pretty historic. Too many dominoes falling in a row for it not to. Looking forward to writing about a lot of exciting weather this winter. Really haven't had much weather to write about around here in nearly 3 years.

[Cerakoter1984]

I fully expect to see an interesting storm in our area near Thanksgiving.

[WhiteoutWX]

14 hours ago, Cerakoter1984 said:

I fully expect to see an interesting storm in our area near Thanksgiving.

The general idea of blocking showing up is good, but the details as to where the troughs and ridges are setting up do not look at all favorable for our area. I think we are a good 2+ weeks from any real opportunities at winter weather. We need the pesky GOA low to get replaced with ridging and force a downstream trough into the western/central US. Until that happens we will mostly be dealing with brief cold intrusions but mostly dry conditions.

[Cerakoter1984]

Getting there...

If the Euro is too warm and too far West with the cold here, then I think we may have a candidate for a storm of some interest.

[JoMo]

On 11/12/2017 at 10:57 PM, Cerakoter1984 said:

I fully expect to see an interesting storm in our area near Thanksgiving.

lol, the 12z GFS today....

[WhiteoutWX]

I think it’s safe to say the models are struggling badly with the upcoming blocking pattern. Huge differences run to run, even as close in as day 4/5. Expect many more changes to come. But man that 12z GFS is nice to look at! 

[The Waterboy]

That will be fun to look at for a few more hours until the 18z run.

Awesome stuff right there!!!!

[Cerakoter1984]

What a GFS run that was. Lol

[raindancewx]

The JAMSTEC has switched to a slightly cold winter for much of the SE / SC US. Kind of went from what I expect (cold interior West) to a blend of what cerakoter had and what I had. Very different from what it forecast last November.

[JoMo]

Hmm, also wet over OK/TX on the JAMSTEC. 

[raindancewx]

Been doing research trying to predict the PDO. Seems like the March-August PDO values (Mantua) are either "eaten away" or "reinforced" by whatever the temperature anomaly is in Nino 1.2 during October. In other words, if its a positive PDO in March-August, but Nino 1.2 is cold in October it will trend to lower values in winter. If it is a positive PDO March-August, and a warm Nino 1.2 in October, it stays positive or becomes even more positive and so on.

Well anyway, we had a positive PDO in March-August 2017 (+0.62), but a cold Nino 1.2 in October - and so the general idea on my end was that Nov-Apr would trend down from Mar-Aug levels. October PDO value just came in --> +0.05 --> lowest value since December 2013.

Depending on the data-set you use, the blend of Mar-Aug 2017 and Nino 1.2 implies +0.1 for the PDO in Nov-Apr, +/- 0.4, at around 90% certainty going by 1994-2016 (excluding 1997, since Nino 1.2 has never been that nearly warm since 1930)

[Cerakoter1984]

On 11/15/2017 at 11:55 PM, raindancewx said:

Been doing research trying to predict the PDO. Seems like the March-August PDO values (Mantua) are either "eaten away" or "reinforced" by whatever the temperature anomaly is in Nino 1.2 during October. In other words, if its a positive PDO in March-August, but Nino 1.2 is cold in October it will trend to lower values in winter. If it is a positive PDO March-August, and a warm Nino 1.2 in October, it stays positive or becomes even more positive and so on.

Well anyway, we had a positive PDO in March-August 2017 (+0.62), but a cold Nino 1.2 in October - and so the general idea on my end was that Nov-Apr would trend down from Mar-Aug levels. October PDO value just came in --> +0.05 --> lowest value since December 2013.

Depending on the data-set you use, the blend of Mar-Aug 2017 and Nino 1.2 implies +0.1 for the PDO in Nov-Apr, +/- 0.4, at around 90% certainty going by 1994-2016 (excluding 1997, since Nino 1.2 has never been that nearly warm since 1930)

My comment won't get close to doing it justice but just wanted to say you do great work. That stuff is awesome to me.

[JoMo]

All the 'fake' weather websites on FB took that GFS run with the snowstorm seriously and have been spreading it everywhere. I've had people saying it's going to snow a lot next weekend. 

[Will (little rock)]

1 minute ago, JoMo said:

All the 'fake' weather websites on FB took that GFS run with the snowstorm seriously and have been spreading it everywhere. I've had people saying it's going to snow a lot next weekend. 

Ridiculous considering it's not even showing anything on the runs now

[JoMo]

12z Euro ensembles looking more interesting as we head into the first week of Dec with the SW troughing. 

[JoMo]

Doug's first thoughts on winter. He thinks it will be cold with near average to slightly above average snow. He's busted the last 2 winter forecasts though.

http://headypattern.com/friday-night-saturday-am-blog-quick-look-at-the-winter/

[raindancewx]

My winter analogs, applied to November, produced a near perfect match of temperature anomalies for the last week. Don't think the month will end up being quite this close unfortunately. South started too warm, NW started too cool. Sometimes I think I should put in some kind of timing variable for analogs, but not sure how.

 

[NwWhiteOut]

On 11/17/2017 at 10:20 PM, JoMo said:

Doug's first thoughts on winter. He thinks it will be cold with near average to slightly above average snow. He's busted the last 2 winter forecasts though.

http://headypattern.com/friday-night-saturday-am-blog-quick-look-at-the-winter/

Has anyone really done good with long range winter forecasts though over the past few "dud" winters lol? October was fairly cold for around here, heck halloween was brutal! Now its off and on same ole same ole crazy temp swings like its been the past few years. I start getting nervous when we get close to december like this and we are going to be in upper 60's again a few days this week! Of course I know things can change out here though in minutes haha.

So lets see what this season holds, last two we had roughly a half inch of snow both of those years lmao.

[monsoonman1]

This is a really boring pattern. Sunny with dry cold frontal passages every now and then. At least Friday should be warm enough to go for a hike.

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