NwWhiteOut Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 15 hours ago, MoWeatherguy said: Yah this is getting ridiculous I'll give it til the end of FEB them I am throwing the towel in. Is gonna amaze me if we end up 3 years in a row though at a half inch for the season, just weirdness! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Thanks for all the positive feedback. Yeah, model watching can get so draining after a while, and for someone like me who has a tough time at taking models past a few days worth a grain of salt, I can't help but get my hopes up. That all being said, February and March actually seem to be the most frequent producers of high snowfall according to Tulsa's records, with March particularly throwing out some pretty high numbers. I've got to think that happens when the spring pattern begins to take shape and moisture becomes plentiful, so any cold air shot gives a storm plenty of QPF to work with. Right now, all this cold air is pushing so deep that the atmosphere has been starved of moisture, hence why we keep seeing south TX and the gulf coast throwing out WSW. When the dead of winter begins to retreat some, I think that's when we see our best shot. This weekend is shaping up to look more like a late March pattern with thunderstorms in the forecast, hopefully this bodes well for the coming weeks and we get an extremely juicy storm slam through the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 If we look at months since 1950 where Tulsa received heavy snowfall events, here are the results by month. 1950-2017 10+ inches Nov: 1 Dec: 2 Jan: 3 Feb: 3 Mar: 4 April: 0 8+ inches Nov: 1 Dec: 4 Jan: 4 Feb: 3 Mar: 7 April: 0 6+ inches Nov: 1 Dec: 7 Jan: 9 Feb: 6 Mar: 10 April: 0 So, with that knowledge, March produces more heavy snowfall events than any other month for Tulsa. Just found this to be a very interesting stat. If Feb doesn't produce, you can bet I'll be hugging this statistic tightly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 1 hour ago, StormChazer said: If we look at months since 1950 where Tulsa received heavy snowfall events, here are the results by month. 1950-2017 10+ inches Nov: 1 Dec: 2 Jan: 3 Feb: 3 Mar: 4 April: 0 8+ inches Nov: 1 Dec: 4 Jan: 4 Feb: 3 Mar: 7 April: 0 6+ inches Nov: 1 Dec: 7 Jan: 9 Feb: 6 Mar: 10 April: 0 So, with that knowledge, March produces more heavy snowfall events than any other month for Tulsa. Just found this to be a very interesting stat. If Feb doesn't produce, you can bet I'll be hugging this statistic tightly. Totally agree with your assessment regarding March. I've been in this area a long time and some of the more memorable storms have been in early/mid March. The difference is the snow doesn't usually stick around as long. Temps usually warm fairly quick after the storm moves east and the sun angle isn't in our favor. Plus, days start getting longer. All of that leads to more melting much faster. So it's a trade-off. We may get 6 inches + but it's here and gone within a few days. I guess it depends on your preference. Do you want snow on the ground for longer periods of time or a big dump (and who doesn't love a big dump! )that doesn't stick around as long. Thanks for the research and insight. Let's all keep our fingers crossed that we have a 45 day period from Feb 1 to March 15 that could pay off. We only need one monster storm to make us all feel better about life! Climo is in our favor. Dilly Dilly! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 1 hour ago, The Waterboy said: Totally agree with your assessment regarding March. I've been in this area a long time and some of the more memorable storms have been in early/mid March. The difference is the snow doesn't usually stick around as long. Temps usually warm fairly quick after the storm moves east and the sun angle isn't in our favor. Plus, days start getting longer. All of that leads to more melting much faster. So it's a trade-off. We may get 6 inches + but it's here and gone within a few days. I guess it depends on your preference. Do you want snow on the ground for longer periods of time or a big dump (and who doesn't love a big dump! )that doesn't stick around as long. Thanks for the research and insight. Let's all keep our fingers crossed that we have a 45 day period from Feb 1 to March 15 that could pay off. We only need one monster storm to make us all feel better about life! Climo is in our favor. Dilly Dilly! I have to say, if it's between those two options, I'd rather get 8 inches that melt off in 3 days than 3 inches that stick around for a week, but then again, I'm from Dallas, and heavy dumpings followed by quick melts are pretty much all I've ever known. Dilly Dilly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 3 hours ago, StormChazer said: I have to say, if it's between those two options, I'd rather get 8 inches that melt off in 3 days than 3 inches that stick around for a week, but then again, I'm from Dallas, and heavy dumpings followed by quick melts are pretty much all I've ever known. Dilly Dilly! Is such a true quote there too, it all depends on where you are from and what you grew up around! Me, I grew up on the east coast and then lived in central/northern Missouri most my life so I am use to cold and seeing things stick around for a long time during the winter season. When I lived in south Jersey(grew up there for my first 27 yrs of life) back in the 80's and 90's we would get slammed weekly with giant nor easters that dumped between 8 inches to feet weekly, no kidding. Man if only we had the technology we have now days like digital cameras and palm sized camcorders, I would have some awesome footage/pics for all of you on storms you probably never seen or been part of! So with that said, I would rather have cold stick around and 4"+ to stick around with that cold here. I have seen some mad march blizzards in Missouri though and do have/shared pics with everyone on here(when we were part of the old forum) of those crazy things where I once saw 26" from one storm in 9 hours or so and just to see it turn to slop and all completely melt off in a day or two lol with temps spiking right back to the 60's. So just maybe we(those of us who havent gotten squat yet lol) can see something in Feb. when its still cold and the sun angle isnt terrible yet. Really do dig your thoughts on all this though, it is kind of how I am....I suck at remembering or understanding model runs so usually I keep notes of every season to compare things(kinda like what you did/have been doing). Ok dont wanna bore everyone with my long winded boring disco's lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 10 hours ago, NwWhiteOut said: Is such a true quote there too, it all depends on where you are from and what you grew up around! Me, I grew up on the east coast and then lived in central/northern Missouri most my life so I am use to cold and seeing things stick around for a long time during the winter season. When I lived in south Jersey(grew up there for my first 27 yrs of life) back in the 80's and 90's we would get slammed weekly with giant nor easters that dumped between 8 inches to feet weekly, no kidding. Man if only we had the technology we have now days like digital cameras and palm sized camcorders, I would have some awesome footage/pics for all of you on storms you probably never seen or been part of! So with that said, I would rather have cold stick around and 4"+ to stick around with that cold here. I have seen some mad march blizzards in Missouri though and do have/shared pics with everyone on here(when we were part of the old forum) of those crazy things where I once saw 26" from one storm in 9 hours or so and just to see it turn to slop and all completely melt off in a day or two lol with temps spiking right back to the 60's. So just maybe we(those of us who havent gotten squat yet lol) can see something in Feb. when its still cold and the sun angle isnt terrible yet. Really do dig your thoughts on all this though, it is kind of how I am....I suck at remembering or understanding model runs so usually I keep notes of every season to compare things(kinda like what you did/have been doing). Ok dont wanna bore everyone with my long winded boring disco's lol. Usually just lurk in your forum but cannot resist posting! We are the same way really in the TN Valley, though, we have gotten more snow this year than in the previous couple. Still, I am left wondering why it is so hard to get one or two of those "I-40" specials like I remember as a kid in the late 1970's and 1980's? The good ones that give everyone 5" or 6" and melt away in two days? We got 3" or so last Friday plus the 3" - 4" we just got. Snow is really becoming an issue for me since we have an inability to keep the side streets clear. I am fine with a snow that is gone in a couple of days, not so much snow that hangs around for close to a week! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSwizzle83 Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 I am not sure how much stock I put in the cycle that Gary Lezak and Doug Heady are fans of, but there is some merit behind it. If so, I would imagine that February and March would give us more snow or ice setups. The arctic air would not be as deep and the storm track should lift a bit further north. That would give us some shots. That is, if the pattern is similar. I guess we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 5 minutes ago, GSwizzle83 said: I am not sure how much stock I put in the cycle that Gary Lezak and Doug Heady are fans of, but there is some merit behind it. If so, I would imagine that February and March would give us more snow or ice setups. The arctic air would not be as deep and the storm track should lift a bit further north. That would give us some shots. That is, if the pattern is similar. I guess we will see. History certainly backs their thoughts too, here's to hoping! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 12 hours ago, NwWhiteOut said: Is such a true quote there too, it all depends on where you are from and what you grew up around! Me, I grew up on the east coast and then lived in central/northern Missouri most my life so I am use to cold and seeing things stick around for a long time during the winter season. When I lived in south Jersey(grew up there for my first 27 yrs of life) back in the 80's and 90's we would get slammed weekly with giant nor easters that dumped between 8 inches to feet weekly, no kidding. Man if only we had the technology we have now days like digital cameras and palm sized camcorders, I would have some awesome footage/pics for all of you on storms you probably never seen or been part of! So with that said, I would rather have cold stick around and 4"+ to stick around with that cold here. I have seen some mad march blizzards in Missouri though and do have/shared pics with everyone on here(when we were part of the old forum) of those crazy things where I once saw 26" from one storm in 9 hours or so and just to see it turn to slop and all completely melt off in a day or two lol with temps spiking right back to the 60's. So just maybe we(those of us who havent gotten squat yet lol) can see something in Feb. when its still cold and the sun angle isnt terrible yet. Really do dig your thoughts on all this though, it is kind of how I am....I suck at remembering or understanding model runs so usually I keep notes of every season to compare things(kinda like what you did/have been doing). Ok dont wanna bore everyone with my long winded boring disco's lol. Very interesting thoughts! I've never had snow stick around more than a few days, maybe 4-5 at the most(ice storm a few years back in the DFW area), I was however in Dallas when we got 12 inches in under 24 hours(Feb 11th, 2010), which, for Dallas, is very impressive. But, it didn't stick around for more than a week. I suppose it's all about perspective and experience. Kinda like when I was a kid and I got into trouble, every once in a while, I got to pick my punishment, get a spanking, or be grounded from something for a week. I chose the flash in the pan option then for the negative, and I'll choose it now for the positive! Haha Oh, here's a snowfall graphic on the Dallas storm for anyone who cares at seeing those sorts of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 Loving the 06z GFS right now, haha. The Canadian and Euro are picking up on this as well. The Canadian has it further north and faster(so not as heavy rates as we see here on the GFS), and the Euro has it fly up into Wisconsin before it get's organized. But, all three agree on a storm system with cold air on the weekend of Fri the 26th. Still, 8-10 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 Interesting model runs, of course that probly will not pan out like it shows lol. Never know though, anything is possible out here! It will probly wind up turning into nothing and be dug so far south we get nothing again or so far north we get rain haha. That's how everything has been panning out this season it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 1 hour ago, NwWhiteOut said: Interesting model runs, of course that probly will not pan out like it shows lol. Never know though, anything is possible out here! It will probly wind up turning into nothing and be dug so far south we get nothing again or so far north we get rain haha. That's how everything has been panning out this season it seems. That's how everything has been panning out this season for 3 yrs it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 7 hours ago, StormChazer said: Loving the 06z GFS right now, haha. The Canadian and Euro are picking up on this as well. The Canadian has it further north and faster(so not as heavy rates as we see here on the GFS), and the Euro has it fly up into Wisconsin before it get's organized. But, all three agree on a storm system with cold air on the weekend of Fri the 26th. Still, 8-10 days out. Wont' believe it till we're 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 4 hours ago, MoWeatherguy said: That's how everything has been panning out this season for 3 yrs it seems. Oooops you are right, what was I thinking lmao!!! So very very true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 2 hours ago, NwWhiteOut said: Oooops you are right, what was I thinking lmao!!! So very very true Haha sorry bro I couldn't resist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 13 hours ago, MoWeatherguy said: Haha sorry bro I couldn't resist. All good man, its true! Have you seen the upcoming temps, depressing lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 15 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said: All good man, its true! Have you seen the upcoming temps, depressing lol. Yah man makes me wanna go ahead and throw in the towel but still hanging hopes on some Feb action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 Crazy crazy weather guys!!! 70 degrees today and Tulsa just issued a tornado watch from 3pm til 11pm tonight! Never thought I would be opening windows or see this in January lol, oh my now I hear the ice cream man coming down the road wth haha!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 23 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said: Crazy crazy weather guys!!! 70 degrees today and Tulsa just issued a tornado watch from 3pm til 11pm tonight! Never thought I would be opening windows or see this in January lol, oh my now I hear the ice cream man coming down the road wth haha!! Yah lol go figure just a week ago we were in the arctic grip. Quite the change in air mass to bring tornado threats with it. People all over the Ozark trail today taking this all in while they can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 22, 2018 Author Share Posted January 22, 2018 85 degree temp difference in 4 days. EF-1 tornado near Mt. Vernon, MO last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSwizzle83 Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 3 hours ago, JoMo said: 85 degree temp difference in 4 days. EF-1 tornado near Mt. Vernon, MO last night. Quite the variability here in the region. What are long term signals looking like as we move into Feb? Both EURO and GFS seem to indicate something around the 1st of Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 3 hours ago, GSwizzle83 said: Quite the variability here in the region. What are long term signals looking like as we move into Feb? Both EURO and GFS seem to indicate something around the 1st of Feb. MJO apparently headed into cold phases early Feb. Joe B keeps spouting this mini thaw to be followed by a very cold mid to late Feb into March. Just hopefully we get some blocking this time around to keep that northern stream from being super dominant. We all know NW flow here can really suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Looking like Minneapolis is going to get a foot after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 There hasn't been a single major storm system since October for the majority of the southern plains. Long range pattern generally more of the same...storm systems amplifying to the east or northeast. Just give me one system ejecting out of the southwest...we've got drought conditions exploding across Oklahoma and Texas. We need precipitation badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 23, 2018 Author Share Posted January 23, 2018 9 hours ago, GSwizzle83 said: Quite the variability here in the region. What are long term signals looking like as we move into Feb? Both EURO and GFS seem to indicate something around the 1st of Feb. -EPO wanting to come back. Not really getting any AO help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 I've had to just step back the last week. I tell myself I won't look at the models until I hear the NWS mention something in a forecast discussion, but as a weather enthusiast it's pretty impossible for me to not look at new model runs, lol. So here's to hoping that storm around the 1st does something for us.....but man, we can't buy a a few inches to save our lives right now. That's OK, history is on our side! We are due! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 The Lezak and Heady cycles have a period similar to that of the MJO. Some years are great and some are tough. Majority work out. They combine all methods - including their own - for seasonal outlooks. I believe it's solid. Well all need a beauty from the central/southern Plains and Ozarks through the Tennessee Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 GFS GEM EURO I know I'm grasping at straws here, but one of these is bound to pan out, so let's cross our fingers with this one, at least there's a consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 The models were showing something last week for the 28th of this month werent they? Im not buying these long range things lol, nothing ever seems to happen anyway with the luck we all have! Still sitting at the measly half inch nonsense for the season. Waiting on a miracle now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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