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MO/KS/AR/OK 2019-2020 Winter Wonderland Discussion


JoMo
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2 hours ago, ouamber said:

Glad for all you guys!

 

This is sad for here....can't even buy a flurry here in Tulsa. Systems keep pulling North, south and east. It's terrible! I need to check the drought monitor. 

Yup...It's infuriating to to see that heavy band set up so close to us, and then see it's going to form to our south as well...it's like a sick joke.

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3 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

Yup...It's infuriating to to see that heavy band set up so close to us, and then see it's going to form to our south as well...it's like a sick joke.

Yea Oklahoma as a whole is hurting this winter. We got 1/2 inch before Christmas but that's it. This is by far the worst stretch of snowless winters. 

Lol and then this "storm" miraculously picks up South of us in Texas...sitting between the northern and southern stream is terrible. February is my last hope for this winter.

ETA: Sorry to be a bummer when many of y'all are happy today! Lol that HRRR straight up trolled Tulsa last night!

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1 minute ago, ouamber said:

Yea Oklahoma as a whole is hurting this winter. We got 1/2 inch before Christmas but that's it. This is by far the worst stretch of snowless winters. 

Lol and then this "storm" miraculously picks up South of us in Texas...sitting between the northern and southern stream is terrible. February is my last hope for this winter.

ETA: Sorry to be a bummer when many of y'all are happy today! Lol that HRRR straight up trolled Tulsa last night!

What's worse, I moved here from Dallas, and this is my 3rd winter up here now...which have all been virtually fruitless. I thought when I moved 4 hours north I'd get a lot more! Haha. But you are right, there are a lot of people who are happy today and I'm not trying to rain on anyone's parade...but the weather enthusiast in me is crying. Just one, 3+ incher and I'll be satisfied until next winter.

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10 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

What's worse, I moved here from Dallas, and this is my 3rd winter up here now...which have all been virtually fruitless. I thought when I moved 4 hours north I'd get a lot more! Haha. But you are right, there are a lot of people who are happy today and I'm not trying to rain on anyone's parade...but the weather enthusiast in me is crying. Just one, 3+ incher and I'll be satisfied until next winter.

Yea and look Winter Storm Warnings In the deep south.. Im ready for spring im tired of everything this winter.

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The MJO looks like it's going to go through the 'warm' phases until Feb. The CFS looks like it becomes more favorable in Feb. In the meantime, the troughing is probably going to shift farther to the west so storms may track to our west or NW. That's usually how it goes for this area though, storms track too far west, or too far east. 

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6 minutes ago, JoMo said:

The MJO looks like it's going to go through the 'warm' phases until Feb. The CFS looks like it becomes more favorable in Feb. In the meantime, the troughing is probably going to shift farther to the west so storms may track to our west or NW. That's usually how it goes for this area though, storms track too far west, or too far east. 

Or too far north and south lol, as in today! Like others are stating, deep south under a WSW lol...totally insane, Im speechless so far this winter. Cmon just 1 good 5" storm thats all I want!

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52 minutes ago, ouamber said:

Yea Oklahoma as a whole is hurting this winter. We got 1/2 inch before Christmas but that's it. This is by far the worst stretch of snowless winters. 

Lol and then this "storm" miraculously picks up South of us in Texas...sitting between the northern and southern stream is terrible. February is my last hope for this winter.

ETA: Sorry to be a bummer when many of y'all are happy today! Lol that HRRR straight up trolled Tulsa last night!

It's ok to be bummed out, I think those of us on here who have not seen anything again so far for year number 3 totally get it and understand :) . It is crazy, WSW in the deep south now. Just like you a few of us also have only seen a half inch so far this season if that even :(

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11 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said:

It's ok to be bummed out, I think those of us on here who have not seen anything again so far for year number 3 totally get it and understand :) . It is crazy, WSW in the deep south now. Just like you a few of us also have only seen a half inch so far this season if that even :(

We've managed to waste a solid month of cold temps from Tulsa over to most of northern AR without at least a 1" snow lol.  Cold MJO phase should return for Feb, but my gut tells me we're done here.  Just a weird thing that has me totally bummed right now.   All this as my family in Texarkana get ready for 4" tonite.   SMDH.

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13 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said:

We've managed to waste a solid month of cold temps from Tulsa over to most of northern AR without at least a 1" snow lol.  Cold MJO phase should return for Feb, but my gut tells me we're done here.  Just a weird thing that has me totally bummed right now.   All this as my family in Texarkana get ready for 4" tonite.   SMDH.

Yea man I'm slowly losing hope myself now, we are getting to that point again. Guess there is Feb. to hope for idk though lol. Just a snowless place here for the most part ya know. I know a few people in little rock saying they are in an advisory tonight even for 1-2", totally sick and crazy!!! I agree though it is such a hugeeee waste of cold air, oh well what can we do but drown in our own sorrows lmao. Congrats to those who did get snow though again, boo for us few and yay for them

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1 hour ago, StormChazer said:

If this season doesn't produce anymore snow, it will be the first time since they started keeping records in Tulsa(1950's) that 3 consecutive seasons see 3 inches or less of snow. Just a fun fact, haha.

Pardon me, I actually found more updated numbers going further back. Only once since 1900 has it snowed less than 3 inches 3 years in a row, and that was...


1910: Trace

1911: 0.8

1912: 1.9

They broke that drought in 1913 with 18.2 inches that year

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1 hour ago, StormChazer said:

Pardon me, I actually found more updated numbers going further back. Only once since 1900 has it snowed less than 3 inches 3 years in a row, and that was...


1910: Trace

1911: 0.8

1912: 1.9

They broke that drought in 1913 with 18.2 inches that year

So maybe next yr will see some blockbusters. 

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Looking at the radar tonight from intellicast(love it btw!) and I'm simply disgusted but yet mind blown! Early today literally probly 15 miles to my north missed by snow now the deep south to the gulf is getting it!!!!! Literally probly 75 miles to my southeast give or take, you know its bad when you see that/this happening over and over and over lol. Just a big giant donut hole over fayetteville here it seems

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I've been crunching the numbers for Tulsa, OK to see what the 5 year totals have been since 1900 to give some of us hope that history is on our side. Keep in mind these are YEARLY totals, not SEASONAL.

 

1900-1904: 14.9 inches

1905-1909: 46.9 inches

1910-1914: 22.7 inches

1915-1919: 47.5 inches

1920-1924: 58.1 inches

1925-1929: 40.6 inches

1930-1934: 27.5 inches

1935-1939: 27.5 inches

1940-1944: 42.1 inches

1945-1949: 51.8 nches

1950-1954: 45.0 inches

1955-1959: 51.3 inches

1960-1964: 48.9 inches

1965-1969: 48.4 inches

1970-1974: 47.4 inches

1975-1979: 48.8 inches

1980-1984: 30.6 inches

1985-1989: 65.0 inches

1990-1994: 33.8 inches

1995-1999: 36.1 inches

2000-2004: 62.3 inches

2005-2009: 47.6 inches

2010-2014: 61.7 inches

2015-2017: 11.8 inches

 

This averages out to 43.76 inches every 5 years, as you can see, we've been above that average since 2000, where we hit a high 62.3 inches for that 5 year period. We are currently at 11.8 inches in our 3 years(6.6 of these inches came in 2015), so for us to hit the average we need to get 31.96 inches this year and 2019 combined. We average 8.62 inches a year, so if history is on our side, and we can obtain average, then we are in for a great 2 years, but more likely, we end up below average for this 5 year period, which I think we've been spoiled the last 15 years with above average snowfall(years that I was living in TX). But I'm going to look on the bright side. While analyzing all these years, it is clear that each winter is unique, the data I'm seeing, it's clear that every 3 ish years there is a well above average year that doubles or even triples the normal amount, and with 3 years below average now, I think we are due either in the next 2 months, or the end of 2018 for a bomb that compensates for these sad numbers. I have every year's totals here for anyone interested.

Hope this brightens some outlooks! We are due, history is on our side!

 

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39 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

I've been crunching the numbers for Tulsa, OK to see what the 5 year totals have been since 1900 to give some of us hope that history is on our side. Keep in mind these are YEARLY totals, not SEASONAL.

 

1900-1904: 14.9 inches

1905-1909: 46.9 inches

1910-1914: 22.7 inches

1915-1919: 47.5 inches

1920-1924: 58.1 inches

1925-1929: 40.6 inches

1930-1934: 27.5 inches

1935-1939: 27.5 inches

1940-1944: 42.1 inches

1945-1949: 51.8 nches

1950-1954: 45.0 inches

1955-1959: 51.3 inches

1960-1964: 48.9 inches

1965-1969: 48.4 inches

1970-1974: 47.4 inches

1975-1979: 48.8 inches

1980-1984: 30.6 inches

1985-1989: 65.0 inches

1990-1994: 33.8 inches

1995-1999: 36.1 inches

2000-2004: 62.3 inches

2005-2009: 47.6 inches

2010-2014: 61.7 inches

2015-2017: 11.8 inches

 

This averages out to 43.76 inches every 5 years, as you can see, we've been above that average since 2000, where we hit a high 62.3 inches for that 5 year period. We are currently at 11.8 inches in our 3 years(6.6 of these inches came in 2015), so for us to hit the average we need to get 31.96 inches this year and 2019 combined. We average 8.62 inches a year, so if history is on our side, and we can obtain average, then we are in for a great 2 years, but more likely, we end up below average for this 5 year period, which I think we've been spoiled the last 15 years with above average snowfall(years that I was living in TX). But I'm going to look on the bright side. While analyzing all these years, it is clear that each winter is unique, the data I'm seeing, it's clear that every 3 ish years there is a well above average year that doubles or even triples the normal amount, and with 3 years below average now, I think we are due either in the next 2 months, or the end of 2018 for a bomb that compensates for these sad numbers. I have every year's totals here for anyone interested.

Hope this brightens some outlooks! We are due, history is on our side!

 

I like the research,  tks for sharing.   We are no doubt teetering on the brink of something historical at this pace,  and I think the averages have to catch up at some point.   Just hope it's soon, these departures are insane.  

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12 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said:

I like the research,  tks for sharing.   We are no doubt teetering on the brink of something historical at this pace,  and I think the averages have to catch up at some point.   Just hope it's soon, these departures are insane.  

Thank you. To add some more hope. Tulsa has NEVER gone 7 years in a row without breaking double digits in a year and has gone 6 years in a row with less than 10 inches per year only 3 other times since record keeping.

The first time, 1907-1912, only to get 18.2 inches in 1913.

The second time, 1931-1936(Dust Bowl), went on to get 14 inches in 1937.

The third time, 1938-1943(Dust Bowl/leftover drought), received 15.3 inches in 1944.

And now 2012-2017, I've got to think based on history that 2018 delivers 10+ inches. I don't want to break a record for longest streak of <10 inches ever recorded for Tulsa.

 

 

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1 hour ago, StormChazer said:

Thank you. To add some more hope. Tulsa has NEVER gone 7 years in a row without breaking double digits in a year and has gone 6 years in a row with less than 10 inches per year only 3 other times since record keeping.

The first time, 1907-1912, only to get 18.2 inches in 1913.

The second time, 1931-1936(Dust Bowl), went on to get 14 inches in 1937.

The third time, 1938-1943(Dust Bowl/leftover drought), received 15.3 inches in 1944.

And now 2012-2017, I've got to think based on history that 2018 delivers 10+ inches. I don't want to break a record for longest streak of <10 inches ever recorded for Tulsa.

 

 

Man,  good stats there.   I think we get a good one in Feb this yr.

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4 hours ago, StormChazer said:

Thank you. To add some more hope. Tulsa has NEVER gone 7 years in a row without breaking double digits in a year and has gone 6 years in a row with less than 10 inches per year only 3 other times since record keeping.

The first time, 1907-1912, only to get 18.2 inches in 1913.

The second time, 1931-1936(Dust Bowl), went on to get 14 inches in 1937.

The third time, 1938-1943(Dust Bowl/leftover drought), received 15.3 inches in 1944.

And now 2012-2017, I've got to think based on history that 2018 delivers 10+ inches. I don't want to break a record for longest streak of <10 inches ever recorded for Tulsa.

 

 

Just plain ugly stats not to mention it snowed in Houston, New Orleans and now Fla today.  Cancel winter now and get onto spring storms........

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