StormChazer Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 hours ago, ouamber said: Glad for all you guys! This is sad for here....can't even buy a flurry here in Tulsa. Systems keep pulling North, south and east. It's terrible! I need to check the drought monitor. Yup...It's infuriating to to see that heavy band set up so close to us, and then see it's going to form to our south as well...it's like a sick joke. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Yup...It's infuriating to to see that heavy band set up so close to us, and then see it's going to form to our south as well...it's like a sick joke. Yea Oklahoma as a whole is hurting this winter. We got 1/2 inch before Christmas but that's it. This is by far the worst stretch of snowless winters. Lol and then this "storm" miraculously picks up South of us in Texas...sitting between the northern and southern stream is terrible. February is my last hope for this winter. ETA: Sorry to be a bummer when many of y'all are happy today! Lol that HRRR straight up trolled Tulsa last night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, ouamber said: Yea Oklahoma as a whole is hurting this winter. We got 1/2 inch before Christmas but that's it. This is by far the worst stretch of snowless winters. Lol and then this "storm" miraculously picks up South of us in Texas...sitting between the northern and southern stream is terrible. February is my last hope for this winter. ETA: Sorry to be a bummer when many of y'all are happy today! Lol that HRRR straight up trolled Tulsa last night! What's worse, I moved here from Dallas, and this is my 3rd winter up here now...which have all been virtually fruitless. I thought when I moved 4 hours north I'd get a lot more! Haha. But you are right, there are a lot of people who are happy today and I'm not trying to rain on anyone's parade...but the weather enthusiast in me is crying. Just one, 3+ incher and I'll be satisfied until next winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 10 minutes ago, StormChazer said: What's worse, I moved here from Dallas, and this is my 3rd winter up here now...which have all been virtually fruitless. I thought when I moved 4 hours north I'd get a lot more! Haha. But you are right, there are a lot of people who are happy today and I'm not trying to rain on anyone's parade...but the weather enthusiast in me is crying. Just one, 3+ incher and I'll be satisfied until next winter. Yea and look Winter Storm Warnings In the deep south.. Im ready for spring im tired of everything this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, Spot said: Yea and look Winter Storm Warnings In the deep south.. Im ready for spring im tired of everything this winter. Yup. It doesn't help that you know all this cold air is being wasted. If the patterns were in our favor, this had the potential to be a record breaking season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 The MJO looks like it's going to go through the 'warm' phases until Feb. The CFS looks like it becomes more favorable in Feb. In the meantime, the troughing is probably going to shift farther to the west so storms may track to our west or NW. That's usually how it goes for this area though, storms track too far west, or too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 6 minutes ago, JoMo said: The MJO looks like it's going to go through the 'warm' phases until Feb. The CFS looks like it becomes more favorable in Feb. In the meantime, the troughing is probably going to shift farther to the west so storms may track to our west or NW. That's usually how it goes for this area though, storms track too far west, or too far east. Or too far north and south lol, as in today! Like others are stating, deep south under a WSW lol...totally insane, Im speechless so far this winter. Cmon just 1 good 5" storm thats all I want! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 52 minutes ago, ouamber said: Yea Oklahoma as a whole is hurting this winter. We got 1/2 inch before Christmas but that's it. This is by far the worst stretch of snowless winters. Lol and then this "storm" miraculously picks up South of us in Texas...sitting between the northern and southern stream is terrible. February is my last hope for this winter. ETA: Sorry to be a bummer when many of y'all are happy today! Lol that HRRR straight up trolled Tulsa last night! It's ok to be bummed out, I think those of us on here who have not seen anything again so far for year number 3 totally get it and understand . It is crazy, WSW in the deep south now. Just like you a few of us also have only seen a half inch so far this season if that even 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSwizzle83 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Wound up with a 2 day total of 4.25". Latest hi-res models are trying to drop the temp between -5 and -10 across SW MO and SE KS in the snow cover. That's crazy cold! Sorry for those who missed the snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 11 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said: It's ok to be bummed out, I think those of us on here who have not seen anything again so far for year number 3 totally get it and understand . It is crazy, WSW in the deep south now. Just like you a few of us also have only seen a half inch so far this season if that even We've managed to waste a solid month of cold temps from Tulsa over to most of northern AR without at least a 1" snow lol. Cold MJO phase should return for Feb, but my gut tells me we're done here. Just a weird thing that has me totally bummed right now. All this as my family in Texarkana get ready for 4" tonite. SMDH. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 This is a terrible hobby/obsession. I'm much more sane from April through October when I don't give a crap about the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 13 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: We've managed to waste a solid month of cold temps from Tulsa over to most of northern AR without at least a 1" snow lol. Cold MJO phase should return for Feb, but my gut tells me we're done here. Just a weird thing that has me totally bummed right now. All this as my family in Texarkana get ready for 4" tonite. SMDH. Yea man I'm slowly losing hope myself now, we are getting to that point again. Guess there is Feb. to hope for idk though lol. Just a snowless place here for the most part ya know. I know a few people in little rock saying they are in an advisory tonight even for 1-2", totally sick and crazy!!! I agree though it is such a hugeeee waste of cold air, oh well what can we do but drown in our own sorrows lmao. Congrats to those who did get snow though again, boo for us few and yay for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: This is a terrible hobby/obsession. I'm much more sane from April through October when I don't give a crap about the weather. It is lol, it can drive you to be so PO in the winter when you can't get anything at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 If this season doesn't produce anymore snow, it will be the first time since they started keeping records in Tulsa(1950's) that 3 consecutive seasons see 3 inches or less of snow. Just a fun fact, haha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 hour ago, StormChazer said: If this season doesn't produce anymore snow, it will be the first time since they started keeping records in Tulsa(1950's) that 3 consecutive seasons see 3 inches or less of snow. Just a fun fact, haha. Pardon me, I actually found more updated numbers going further back. Only once since 1900 has it snowed less than 3 inches 3 years in a row, and that was... 1910: Trace 1911: 0.8 1912: 1.9 They broke that drought in 1913 with 18.2 inches that year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 hour ago, StormChazer said: Pardon me, I actually found more updated numbers going further back. Only once since 1900 has it snowed less than 3 inches 3 years in a row, and that was... 1910: Trace 1911: 0.8 1912: 1.9 They broke that drought in 1913 with 18.2 inches that year So maybe next yr will see some blockbusters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, MoWeatherguy said: So maybe next yr will see some blockbusters. The law of averages has to pay up at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Looking at the radar tonight from intellicast(love it btw!) and I'm simply disgusted but yet mind blown! Early today literally probly 15 miles to my north missed by snow now the deep south to the gulf is getting it!!!!! Literally probly 75 miles to my southeast give or take, you know its bad when you see that/this happening over and over and over lol. Just a big giant donut hole over fayetteville here it seems 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSwizzle83 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Low of -6º this morning. High may not get above 10 today. But no need to fear... storms will be arriving this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Blowtorch incoming by weeks end lol!!! Hard to believe as cold as it was last night/today and tonight again! Looks like T-Storm chances as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Huge temp differences between the 12z GFS, Euro, and Canadian, at hour 240 (12z Friday, Jan 26). Bentonville, AR temp: GFS - 43 Euro - 34 Canadian -12 Joplin temp: GFS - 47 Euro - 32 Canadian - 8 Only a 35-40 degree spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 I've been crunching the numbers for Tulsa, OK to see what the 5 year totals have been since 1900 to give some of us hope that history is on our side. Keep in mind these are YEARLY totals, not SEASONAL. 1900-1904: 14.9 inches 1905-1909: 46.9 inches 1910-1914: 22.7 inches 1915-1919: 47.5 inches 1920-1924: 58.1 inches 1925-1929: 40.6 inches 1930-1934: 27.5 inches 1935-1939: 27.5 inches 1940-1944: 42.1 inches 1945-1949: 51.8 nches 1950-1954: 45.0 inches 1955-1959: 51.3 inches 1960-1964: 48.9 inches 1965-1969: 48.4 inches 1970-1974: 47.4 inches 1975-1979: 48.8 inches 1980-1984: 30.6 inches 1985-1989: 65.0 inches 1990-1994: 33.8 inches 1995-1999: 36.1 inches 2000-2004: 62.3 inches 2005-2009: 47.6 inches 2010-2014: 61.7 inches 2015-2017: 11.8 inches This averages out to 43.76 inches every 5 years, as you can see, we've been above that average since 2000, where we hit a high 62.3 inches for that 5 year period. We are currently at 11.8 inches in our 3 years(6.6 of these inches came in 2015), so for us to hit the average we need to get 31.96 inches this year and 2019 combined. We average 8.62 inches a year, so if history is on our side, and we can obtain average, then we are in for a great 2 years, but more likely, we end up below average for this 5 year period, which I think we've been spoiled the last 15 years with above average snowfall(years that I was living in TX). But I'm going to look on the bright side. While analyzing all these years, it is clear that each winter is unique, the data I'm seeing, it's clear that every 3 ish years there is a well above average year that doubles or even triples the normal amount, and with 3 years below average now, I think we are due either in the next 2 months, or the end of 2018 for a bomb that compensates for these sad numbers. I have every year's totals here for anyone interested. Hope this brightens some outlooks! We are due, history is on our side! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 39 minutes ago, StormChazer said: I've been crunching the numbers for Tulsa, OK to see what the 5 year totals have been since 1900 to give some of us hope that history is on our side. Keep in mind these are YEARLY totals, not SEASONAL. 1900-1904: 14.9 inches 1905-1909: 46.9 inches 1910-1914: 22.7 inches 1915-1919: 47.5 inches 1920-1924: 58.1 inches 1925-1929: 40.6 inches 1930-1934: 27.5 inches 1935-1939: 27.5 inches 1940-1944: 42.1 inches 1945-1949: 51.8 nches 1950-1954: 45.0 inches 1955-1959: 51.3 inches 1960-1964: 48.9 inches 1965-1969: 48.4 inches 1970-1974: 47.4 inches 1975-1979: 48.8 inches 1980-1984: 30.6 inches 1985-1989: 65.0 inches 1990-1994: 33.8 inches 1995-1999: 36.1 inches 2000-2004: 62.3 inches 2005-2009: 47.6 inches 2010-2014: 61.7 inches 2015-2017: 11.8 inches This averages out to 43.76 inches every 5 years, as you can see, we've been above that average since 2000, where we hit a high 62.3 inches for that 5 year period. We are currently at 11.8 inches in our 3 years(6.6 of these inches came in 2015), so for us to hit the average we need to get 31.96 inches this year and 2019 combined. We average 8.62 inches a year, so if history is on our side, and we can obtain average, then we are in for a great 2 years, but more likely, we end up below average for this 5 year period, which I think we've been spoiled the last 15 years with above average snowfall(years that I was living in TX). But I'm going to look on the bright side. While analyzing all these years, it is clear that each winter is unique, the data I'm seeing, it's clear that every 3 ish years there is a well above average year that doubles or even triples the normal amount, and with 3 years below average now, I think we are due either in the next 2 months, or the end of 2018 for a bomb that compensates for these sad numbers. I have every year's totals here for anyone interested. Hope this brightens some outlooks! We are due, history is on our side! I like the research, tks for sharing. We are no doubt teetering on the brink of something historical at this pace, and I think the averages have to catch up at some point. Just hope it's soon, these departures are insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 12 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: I like the research, tks for sharing. We are no doubt teetering on the brink of something historical at this pace, and I think the averages have to catch up at some point. Just hope it's soon, these departures are insane. Thank you. To add some more hope. Tulsa has NEVER gone 7 years in a row without breaking double digits in a year and has gone 6 years in a row with less than 10 inches per year only 3 other times since record keeping. The first time, 1907-1912, only to get 18.2 inches in 1913. The second time, 1931-1936(Dust Bowl), went on to get 14 inches in 1937. The third time, 1938-1943(Dust Bowl/leftover drought), received 15.3 inches in 1944. And now 2012-2017, I've got to think based on history that 2018 delivers 10+ inches. I don't want to break a record for longest streak of <10 inches ever recorded for Tulsa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Extremely interesting look at things there StormChazer!! I enjoyed looking at that table, very very interesting for sure. Curious to see how things pan out now after seeing a different perspective on things from someone else, very neat to look at besides a model run lol(and we all know how those go haha) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Two day total was a little less than 3" .. I got to see snow come down for two days.. The snow drought finally ended here in southern MO . I trust that all of us end up with a snowy February . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 1 hour ago, StormChazer said: Thank you. To add some more hope. Tulsa has NEVER gone 7 years in a row without breaking double digits in a year and has gone 6 years in a row with less than 10 inches per year only 3 other times since record keeping. The first time, 1907-1912, only to get 18.2 inches in 1913. The second time, 1931-1936(Dust Bowl), went on to get 14 inches in 1937. The third time, 1938-1943(Dust Bowl/leftover drought), received 15.3 inches in 1944. And now 2012-2017, I've got to think based on history that 2018 delivers 10+ inches. I don't want to break a record for longest streak of <10 inches ever recorded for Tulsa. Man, good stats there. I think we get a good one in Feb this yr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 46 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: Man, good stats there. I think we get a good one in Feb this yr. I hope so too! This half inch foolishness has to go man lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 34 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said: I hope so too! This half inch foolishness has to go man lol Yah this is getting ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKStorm Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 4 hours ago, StormChazer said: Thank you. To add some more hope. Tulsa has NEVER gone 7 years in a row without breaking double digits in a year and has gone 6 years in a row with less than 10 inches per year only 3 other times since record keeping. The first time, 1907-1912, only to get 18.2 inches in 1913. The second time, 1931-1936(Dust Bowl), went on to get 14 inches in 1937. The third time, 1938-1943(Dust Bowl/leftover drought), received 15.3 inches in 1944. And now 2012-2017, I've got to think based on history that 2018 delivers 10+ inches. I don't want to break a record for longest streak of <10 inches ever recorded for Tulsa. Just plain ugly stats not to mention it snowed in Houston, New Orleans and now Fla today. Cancel winter now and get onto spring storms........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now