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MO/KS/AR/OK 2019-2020 Winter Wonderland Discussion


JoMo
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30 minutes ago, Spot said:

From what I remember the GFS has/had a cold bias in the past. NAM would have a wet bias and the Euro would hang energy in the SW.. Jomo may have more imput on that.   Pattern wise they are not that far off on that from what I can see right now.

The intriguing part of the GFS is it has consistently shown these bitter cold temps for the last 9 runs now.  It doesn't seem to be wavering.  The Jan. 2nd 12z temps in our area have been in the teens to well below zero over those 9 runs.  

The Canadian has also been cold albeit not near as severe.  

I'm not suggesting the GFS is correct, just noting that there seems to be a pattern.  It's sticking to its guns for now.  The million dollar question is if it caves on future runs or holds steady.  

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The Euro and GFS split really early on about what to do with energy diving down the backside of the trough. One will be wrong of course. The relevant area is over WA/ID. The Euro crushes it, the GFS doesn't.

gfs_z500_vort_us_16.png

 

n the long term, the GFS and Euro are still split with the GFS wanting to rebuild the -EPO right it looks like and the Euro not having any of it.

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22 minutes ago, JoMo said:

The Euro and GFS split really early on about what to do with energy diving down the backside of the trough. One will be wrong of course. The relevant area is over WA/ID. The Euro crushes it, the GFS doesn't.

gfs_z500_vort_us_16.png

 

n the long term, the GFS and Euro are still split with the GFS wanting to rebuild the -EPO right it looks like and the Euro not having any of it.

GFS caves to the Euro in the end it seems right? I think thats the case. I could be wrong though.  Oh and its supposed to be around 0 tonight.. we'll see if that happens.

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30 minutes ago, Spot said:

GFS caves to the Euro in the end it seems right? I think thats the case. I could be wrong though.  Oh and its supposed to be around 0 tonight.. we'll see if that happens.

I think for about the past week, the gfs has performed pretty well. I don't know the model scores but the gfs has been doing decent it seems. 

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6 minutes ago, MUWX said:

I think for about the past week, the gfs has performed pretty well. I don't know the model scores but the gfs has been doing decent it seems. 

It's really hard to say overall.  I prefer the Euro for the most part on the larger synoptic patterns.  But more than once in the spring the GFS has big cold fronts correct, even 10 or 12 days out.  While the timing would change by 6, 12 or 24 hours it handled some significant patterns rather well.  

Each system is different and what has me intrigued on this in particular is the nature in which the GFS really isn't wavering much.  It's been generally consistent for 10 or 12 runs in a row now with timing bobbling a bit here and there and on some runs not as much cold as other runs but still generally much colder than average east of the Rockies.  It may be hour 96 or so before we start to the see the model gap narrow.  

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1 hour ago, Spot said:

GFS caves to the Euro in the end it seems right? I think thats the case. I could be wrong though.  Oh and its supposed to be around 0 tonight.. we'll see if that happens.

Sometimes, sometimes the GFS wins. The GFS is definitely sticking to its guns though, even in the longer range. Euro sticking to it's solution(s) as well. 

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Looks as if the 12z ECMWF has taken a step towards GFS with wave amplification, leading to a stronger anticyclone..at least by Sun 12z. Still loading in.

 

And none of this will really change how much snow is seen..the broader large scale pattern will keep heavier snowfall from being a thing. We need some deep system out of the southwest, at least for those of us in OK/TX/KS.. 

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26 minutes ago, GSwizzle83 said:

Thoughts on freezing drizzle potential? I have heard some rumbles about it. A couple of hundredths with these temps will make roads awful.

Unfortunately seems like a real possibility for the I44 corridor from Chickasaw OK up through mid-Missouri...haven't really looked much further east of that though.

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22 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

The Canadian really wants to put a patch of moderate freezing drizzle/mix over Eastern OK/Western AR. The way temps have been, and the temp it will be when that comes around, anything that falls will immediately stick and begin to accumulate.gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_8.png

The Canadian is the only one showing this, correct? Every other model seems much less bullish to me. 

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5 hours ago, GSwizzle83 said:

GFS says it's going to feel like summer time by next weekend... of course, just one model run but yeesh!

There may be a brief respite as the cold air shifts east and things shuffle around a bit, but the 12z GEFS still has a -EPO in the long range which brings in more cold. This time it has troughing in the west. 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_51.png

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1 hour ago, MoWeatherguy said:

If you believe Doug, and I don't anymore,  we have one more good shot at winter storms late Jan into early Feb and that could be it.  Very discouraging. 

I think there is definitely truth to the recurring pattern, but I don't think it can be used to make exact forecasts weeks in advance like he is trying to do. 

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