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MO/KS/AR/OK 2019-2020 Winter Wonderland Discussion


JoMo
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16 minutes ago, Spot said:

Been heavy flurries all morning long a "deep" dusting I would say I have here. Winter Weather ADV North and south of me.. not a surprise there. Guess better then nothing.

Cool, its something. Im glad its cold, temps have been dropped back a bit for today and tomorrow here which is nice. The wind is crazy here too today, 32 and just makes it feel nice and xmas'y

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1 hour ago, NwWhiteOut said:

Hey JoMo did you get anything up there this morning? I noticed you are in an advisory until 11am? Its been drizzly here all morning off and on right at 33-32 degrees

Don't think so.

I'm becoming increasingly concerned about power outages and trees going down though since they still have a lot of ice on them from the icing the other night and it's getting windy.

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We will likely lose the -EPO at some point during the next 15 days. The cold air should stick around for a bit, either way, but there will probably be a new pattern emerging as we head into January and it looks like the troughing will be based more in the western and northwestern US. 

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1 hour ago, The Waterboy said:

We really need to cash in next weekend before the pattern flips.  If JB is correct we may have a break until Feb then the cold comes back until sometime in March.  

I'd love to cash in, but man, the models seem to be drying up big time. I haven't looked at it super close but I'm not seeing much that gets my attention. Granted, a week out a lot can change. 

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A couple of interesting model notes. First of all, the GFS wants to drop us into the deep freeze this upcoming weekend with highs on New Year's Day not getting above zero for many of us. The EURO, on the other hand, says what arctic air. I am wondering what the biases are for these models? The GFS has been sticking to its guns the last few days, but we know reliability and consistency are not the same. 

Secondly, while the GFS is the coldest over the next ten days the EURO is wetter. It is a trade off I guess. 

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These models are doing extremely bad this season or lost in confusion lol, the temperature grids have been all over the place it seems. Was supposed to be 40 here today now NWS saying nope only 34. I see all the light snow/mix for thursday am and the weekend are gone now too but that will probly change as well. Seems like nothing is right until 4-8 hours before something happens lol.

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Keep in mind, these really cold patterns are usually the result of highly amplified ridges with a NE trough.. While the pattern is great for repeated shots of cold air masses, it is not-so-good for moisture return nor is it going to result in a storm track conducive for widespread plains snowfall. Until we get out of this N/NW flow aloft we will stay cold (sometimes bitterly cold, like is being hinted at next week) but relatively dry.

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4 minutes ago, bjc0303 said:

Keep in mind, these really cold patterns are usually the result of highly amplified ridges with a NE trough.. While the pattern is great for repeated shots of cold air masses, it is not-so-good for moisture return nor is it going to result in a storm track conducive for widespread plains snowfall. Until we get out of this N/NW flow aloft we will stay cold (sometimes bitterly cold, like is being hinted at next week) but relatively dry.

I'll take all the cold we can get after the last couple winters.  Let's kill some bugs and rodents.  I saw a possum the other night the size of a dinosaur.  With some luck a few of those nasty critters will bite the dust.

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Am I missing something here? I have had two different people today (on other sites) tell me there isn't much difference in EURO and GFS temps. From what I see, 12z Monday shows a -20 at SGF and the EURO shows 18 above zero. That's almost a 40º temp difference. Am I missing something?

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8 minutes ago, GSwizzle83 said:

Am I missing something here? I have had two different people today (on other sites) tell me there isn't much difference in EURO and GFS temps. From what I see, 12z Monday shows a -20 at SGF and the EURO shows 18 above zero. That's almost a 40º temp difference. Am I missing something?

EURO is warmer overall. GFS is way colder. 

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15 minutes ago, GSwizzle83 said:

Is that a typical model bias for each or just the way they are reading this pattern?

From what I remember the GFS has/had a cold bias in the past. NAM would have a wet bias and the Euro would hang energy in the SW.. Jomo may have more imput on that.   Pattern wise they are not that far off on that from what I can see right now.

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