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MO/KS/AR/OK 2019-2020 Winter Wonderland Discussion


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Sgf pulled the trigger on a WWA and went with ~3 inches along the I44 corridor. Seems like a good bet to me, most models seem to be locking in on that solution. We still need to watch temps and see if they fall faster than anticipated. Monett has been locked in at 34 for quite some time now. Airport dropped to 32 earlier, but I'm not sure they was accurate 

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8 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Sgf pulled the trigger on a WWA and went with ~3 inches along the I44 corridor. Seems like a good bet to me, most models seem to be locking in on that solution. We still need to watch temps and see if they fall faster than anticipated. Monett has been locked in at 34 for quite some time now. Airport dropped to 32 earlier, but I'm not sure they was accurate 

I've got to think based off OKC and SGF that we will see Tulsa fill in the gap on the advisory around 5 PM today.

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37 here now, curious to see how fast these temps wetbulb (if they do) now that light rain has started here. Have read about an inch here(if it happens lol), mainly slush on grass. I believe it with all the warm crazy weather we have had recently. Nice to see it chilly for once again though for sure!

WWA here now, temps have actually bumped up 2 degrees since the rain started. 1-2" tulsa is saying possible 2-4" in some areas

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Far north side of Oklahoma City here (near Quail Springs Mall for those familiar with the city).  Temperatures have been hovering right at freezing for much of the day.  Right now, I am showing 31.5 F.  Dew points are in the mid-20s.  

Driving home from work (about 45 minutes ago), I saw a couple of wet snow flakes and a couple of sleet pellets mixed in with mostly rain in a passing shower.  The rain did not seem to be freezing on anything at that point, but the sun has now set so anything new, if it isn't already frozen, is likely to freeze, at least on elevated surfaces.  

Right now, nothing is falling but the radar is suddenly showing a bit of weather incoming and likely to be overhead any minute.  If it reaches the ground, I am very curious what the p-type will be.  

EDIT:  NWS is now saying Chickasha, which is 35 miles or so to my southwest, is getting light snow.  That would seem to answer the p-type question here.... if anything reaches the ground in this first batch. 

EDIT #2:  Around 7:30 pm now.  We've been getting really light snow... literally an occasional flake floating by... for about 90 minutes.  No accumulation.  Roads wet.  According to the radar, heavier stuff is falling... and this is not an exaggeration... 5 miles south of me.  If I can get out and about in the next few hours, I will see if the radar was deceiving.  

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2 minutes ago, Spot said:

Nothing here either going south.. gahh never get a break wherever I am.

We are just in bad areas for snow that's all man :(. Winters just dont seem the same anymore anywhere really. I'm ready to move back north, way further north like KC. I really miss it there, was one of the nicest cheapest cities I have ever lived in or outside of it in the country somewhere.

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The radar... at least around here in Central OK... was very deceiving.  We've had extremely light.... I mean REALLY light... snow for a few hours.  No accumulation at all on the far north side of town.  I ran some errands over the past hour (and detoured a bit to see how things looked a bit closer to downtown where radar returns looked pretty respectable.  It was snowing a bit harder down that way (still REALLY light) but there no accumulation there either other than a barely perceptible coating on parked cars.  There was a bit of light sleet mixing in and presumably that accounted for the good looking radar returns.  Oh well.  Maybe this final band is the real deal. 

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Tulsa not throwing in the towel yet.

 

.DISCUSSION...
A little bit of everything going on this evening...with
exiting thunderstorms across far southeast OK and a wide
variety of rain/freezing rain/sleet and snow across much
of the remainder of the forecast area.

00Z OUN sounding showed an impressive warm layer from
900-700mb ensuring that much of the precip was falling as
sleet this evening (with some freezing rain mixed in) over
most of northeast OK. Radar suggests that we`ll see a brief
lull in precipitation later this evening before another
area of mostly snow associated with the upper low lifts into
the region. The last several runs of the HRRR seem to have a
reasonable handle on the situation...with the deformation
zone setting up across northeast OK into northwest AR/southwest
MO later tonight. Highest snow totals look to set up from near
Tulsa and points east-northeast (also supported by recent SREF
plumes)...with 1-2 inches possible although there could be
isolated spots that get 3-4 inches.

Lowered PoPs some across southeast OK where the dry slot is
working in...and also kept a mention of freezing rain for
northeast OK the remainder of the evening hours.


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Watching the local news here in OKC, and they breathlessly reported that they had a storm spotter driving west into what looks like an impressive snow band heading this way (and eventually to points north and east).  The spotter's report:  nothing..... literally not a flake reaching the ground.  

Me thinks it is time to put a fork in this one, folks.  At least in this part of the world.  

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Owasso has had moderate sleet off and on with rain tonight. Had heavy enough sleet to accumulate on sidewalk and cars.

it transitioned to freezing rain and glazed everything and has been off and on snow or sleet since. Had a 15 minute period of moderate snow with big flakes around 10 that started to accumulate before it ended. Back to sleet right now with some light accumulations on cars and roofs.

 

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