StormChazer Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 12 hours ago, StormChazer said: 00Z Euro Control Vs the latest 12Z run Control. Now we see if tonight continues the trend. Piggybacking off this to show the latest control. Trending more in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 It would appear the latest gfs joins in with a similar result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 10, 2019 Author Share Posted December 10, 2019 The overnight runs were decent and in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Anyone have a breakdown of the ensembles? I looked at the 12z ensembles last night, and there were several with decent hits. Did 0z continue that trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 6 minutes ago, MUWX said: Anyone have a breakdown of the ensembles? I looked at the 12z ensembles last night, and there were several with decent hits. Did 0z continue that trend? I'll do a breakdown of all 50 members here shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Also this is the OP Euro run from last night(I was posting the controls earlier). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Here are my findings for the 00Z Euro run members. For S&G I ran the same deal on the 12Z afternoon run yesterday(see below). 00Z-12/10 0 3, 36,37,40,43,45,46,48, Total:8 <1 4*,9,12,13*,16,18,24,27,30*,32,34,35,39,49, Total:14 1-3 1,5,10,11,14,15*,23,26,29,38,41,42*,44*,50 Total:14 3+ 2,6,7,8,17,19,20,21,22,25,28,31,33,47 Total:14 * on edge of 3+ Here is the 21Z run from yesterday. 12Z-12/9/19 0 3,7,8,15,16,17,28,29,30,32,33,35,38,41,42,47,48,49 Total:18 <1 2,12,14,20,34,36,46,50 Total:8 1-3 1, 6,11,19,21,23,24,31,37,45, Total:10 3+ 4, 5,9,10,13,18,22,25,26,27,39,40,43,44, Total:14 As you can see, 10 members moved from a no-snow solution to snow, excited to see the noon run today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RocketWX Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Well there certainly seems to be decent agreement from all the major global models for some sort of system in the Sunday-Monday time frame. The GFS, Euro & GEM were all showing some snow as of last night's runs. It has got my attention for maybe the first time this season here in Wichita. I'm now in check the models daily mode and hopefully the trend continues over the next 72 hours. Feels like it's been forever since we had a good snow here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Well that was disappointing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 10, 2019 Author Share Posted December 10, 2019 Ah yes, the 12z GFS with the heart crushing NW trend of a different trough orientation right on time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 If the Euro holds it's ground on the 12Z then I'll feel ok with this GFS run, bound to have fluctuations. If it backs off too, then I'll just go cry in a corner at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 1 minute ago, StormChazer said: If the Euro holds it's ground on the 12Z then I'll feel ok with this GFS run, bound to have fluctuations. If it backs off too, then I'll just go cry in a corner at work. Im not gonna get too worried about a single model run 5-6 days out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 10, 2019 Author Share Posted December 10, 2019 Slight difference from the 06z GFS run, keep in mind this is 6 hours later is all... lol From this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 10, 2019 Author Share Posted December 10, 2019 Energy still digging in the SW, going to be a massive snow and ice storm on the 12z GFS after 228. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will (little rock) Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 If only 228 hours out was accurate. Crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Holy moly is this happens. This is the last day before Christmas break for many public schools in Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 6 minutes ago, JoMo said: Energy still digging in the SW, going to be a massive snow and ice storm on the 12z GFS after 228. That is massive and nasty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 7 minutes ago, JoMo said: Energy still digging in the SW, going to be a massive snow and ice storm on the 12z GFS after 228. Holy cow, could you even imagine? On the shortest day of the year no less. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 I know we are talking about 1 run on a system 9-10 days out, but this is pure eye candy. It can't even comprehend the sleet totals, lol. But the max says 7.5 inches of sleet. 2.64 inches of freezing rain 18 inches of snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 That much fz rain in Dallas would be devastating. Half that is major impacts. Definitely don’t need that right before Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 10, 2019 Author Share Posted December 10, 2019 Such great weather porn! Back to reality, and the 12z canadian has a bit less snow and a sharper cutoff a bit farther north than the 00z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 10, 2019 Author Share Posted December 10, 2019 Based on a quick low-res look at the 12z GFS Ensembles. I wouldn't count out anything wrt the 15th-17thish system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 I think the Euro is sticking to it's guns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Main precip shield is looking further south but not quite as strong as of hour 126. Edit: looking like more lagging juice with this run though, so might see similar totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 10, 2019 Author Share Posted December 10, 2019 4 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Main precip shield is looking further south but not quite as strong as of hour 126. But it comes back with a stronger band later on. I dig. But it's a really precarious situation. Nice "4" inch snowfall for Joplin and Tulsa. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Yeah, it looks like about a 60 mile wide band of the heaviest snow, outside of that, respectable to the north, quick decline south. A run I'd be more than happy with resolving. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 None of us are surprised with the major difference between the GFS and the Euro. Southern end of measurable snow is Fayetteville on the Euro and Kansas City on the GFS. Only 250 mile difference. And the Canadian splits the uprights. I think we all agree to lean towards the Euro even if it wasn’t currently in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 10, 2019 Author Share Posted December 10, 2019 Well the GFS has a bias of scouring out cold air too quickly, but it's really going to come down to the orientation of the trough which won't be known for a few more days. Many more model runs to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 There were a few very impressive members on the Euro ensemble. Close to 20 members showed roughly 3+ for the springfield area. Is there somewhere you can publicly view the GFS ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, MUWX said: There were a few very impressive members on the Euro ensemble. Close to 20 members showed roughly 3+ for the springfield area. Is there somewhere you can publicly view the GFS ensembles? I'll post the 12Z ensembles shortly. Not sure if there's any free public options. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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