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Still looks average/slightly above average for next 10 days or so. I think we see another cold/cool shot during 2nd/3rd week at some point as the western trough somewhat relaxes. 

4indices.png&key=ab78f4ba943c973b9df9c26761d1ccfbce816ffc328da2be6c0645bd007b8555

I actually think it's a bit conflicting as there is a positive PNA, but there's also a negative EPO so they may actually balance each other out. The Nao, at this point in the Season really doesn't matter too much, as far as sensible weather is concerned, so yeah I agree normal slightly above but that could also be slightly cooler than average as well, so we'll see. I don't see any snow till the very end of November at the earliest to mid-December for our first Blockbuster event.
I just love the fact, that the majority of the summer, there was a trough im in the Northeast, that wouldn't budge, and now obviously we're entering the colder months we have a beautiful wonderful Ridge of high pressure that just won't budge, what a joke!

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

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57 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Isn't that funny, as soon as you post possible wet snow event next week, right after I said I don't see any snow fall until the very end of November to mid-December, lol!

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
 

Yeah lots of stuff has to come together perfectly to get synoptic snow in November, its very rare. 

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1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

6z has an awful lot of cold air in the middle to later in the run...hope it's on to something.

Are you Thinksnow from the old WIVB Blog Don used to run, if so welcome! Me, Devin, and Ayuud migrated here a few years ago. Latest indexes still suggest a rather transient pattern with more cold air the farther northwest you go. In short a few warmer then normal days, a few colder than normal days for the next few weeks. The weeklies did suggest some possible sustained colder weather latter in the month but that's still way out there. Until we can get that Bering strait ridge to go away, any cold will not be lasting long with a pretty strong negative PNA. 

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png

4indices.png

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Yes it is I! I have been hanging around the mid-Atlantic sub forum for about a year and a half trying to get my fix that way, but those guys are over the top! To your most recent post Cohen actually just mentioned that the ridge seems to be building in the bering straight and Asia would become much colder in the short term. I do like how a -qbo is showing up in the models as I believe that will help keep the pac fire hose we had last year from being constant. Great to be on here with you guys again and as always I am ready for our first event to follow!

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2 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Yes it is I! I have been hanging around the mid-Atlantic sub forum for about a year and a half trying to get my fix that way, but those guys are over the top! To your most recent post Cohen actually just mentioned that the ridge seems to be building in the bering straight and Asia would become much colder in the short term. I do like how a -qbo is showing up in the models as I believe that will help keep the pac fire hose we had last year from being constant. Great to be on here with you guys again and as always I am ready for our first event to follow!

It's good to have another poster from Buffalo here. I post quite a bit here and in the great lakes sub-forum as our weather is quite similar. It's usually quiet in here until winter and than it gets quite active. Welcome aboard!

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3 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Looks like next Friday could be interesting. -15c air over 10c lake water. 

I was just looking at that.  Both the 12z and 18z GFS show a bit of an arctic blast.  Not so much on the 0z or 6z so it will be interesting to see if future model runs continue to show the plunge.

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6 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

It's good to have another poster from Buffalo here. I post quite a bit here and in the great lakes sub-forum as our weather is quite similar. It's usually quiet in here until winter and than it gets quite active. Welcome aboard!

It's what us weenies look forward to all summer long, the opportunity to chase that first lake effect event. I have been out of the game for a bit but I am ready to go all in for this winter. Alot of mixed signals to this point so far but I like the promise the last few days have been showing in the article region.

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34 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

It's what us weenies look forward to all summer long, the opportunity to chase that first lake effect event. I have been out of the game for a bit but I am ready to go all in for this winter. Alot of mixed signals to this point so far but I like the promise the last few days have been showing in the article region.

There are some incredible meteorologist on these forums. I've learned so much the last few years here. There was a local one that lived in Buffalo but he got a job as a Meteorologist in Canada, he still posts here though. Me and Devin chased one in Springville last year, was so much fun. You can join us anytime. 

 

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5 hours ago, stanleyjenkins said:

Given continuing model continuity, looks like today might not be a bad day to wheel the snow blower back into the garage for the season.

Things get more interesting late in the week, with 00Z runs of the
ECMWF and GFS both trending MUCH colder than previous runs. Each dig
a sharp trough into Northern New England by Friday with 850mb
temperatures down to about -16C. The 00Z GGEM remains closer to
previous guidance with 850mb temps +4C during the same time period.
GFS ensembles reflect this uncertainty with a narrow majority
supporting the colder operational run but several members close to
the GGEM. The bottom line is the first real `winter` weather may
arrive late this week, but the forecast for late in the week is
highly uncertain. The forecast reflects this trend with much cooler
forecast temperatures for Thursday and Friday, with a chance of lake
effect snow showers east and southeast of the lakes. 

Last GFS run doesn't show that arctic outbreak anymore.

gfs_T850_us_25.png

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