stanleyjenkins Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 1 hour ago, tim123 said: Where you at? I am on east side. Walworth. 310 is sweet here I live in Chili. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 I'm still holding out hope for some action next week. In 2006 even 24 hours before they didn't think it would be cold enough for snow. Right now looks like we could be right on the fence with temps. Only need a swing of maybe 2-3 degrees colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stanleyjenkins Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 I'm really hoping I can mow the grass (more like the leaves if I'm being honest) before the rain moves in today. If not today, who knows when it might be dry next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Going to be a powerful fall storm. Lots of damage to trees possible. Lake shore flooding as Well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Kind of agonizing seeing the modeled storm track coming up. This track in later November thru the winter is the thing snow weenies in Upstate NY daydream about. Seems like Hudson Valley runners are more rare than Buffalo sports teams in the playoffs. On the flip side, BUF snow weenies would be jumping over Niagara Falls reading this... As the upper-level trough becomes negatively tilted with the rapidly intensifying coastal low, this will reinforce the stalled surface boundary near eastern Lake Ontario with increasing frontogensis. The surface low will likely bottom out <980 mb while tracking from near NYC up the Hudson Valley Sunday night. The combination of the coupled jet aloft, strong frontogenesis with the stalled surface front and deformation zone on the back side of the strong surface low, not to mention the tropical moisture source, will place locations from the Genesee Valley east perfectly under the threat for very heavy synoptic rainfall. Model consensus has trended this axis of heaviest precipitation slightly farther west than previous runs. Expect locations from Rochester south to Wellsville and east to the northern Finger lakes to be near the western edge of significant precipitation of about 2-3+ inches. Meanwhile, the most likely axis of heaviest precipitation is along the I-81 corridor from Syracuse to Watertown where 4+ inches of storm total rainfall is possible. Meanwhile this will largely be a non-event for far western NY (Buffalo/Niagara Falls/Dunkirk), where very little rainfall is expected Sunday night, and storm total amounts may be hard pressed to hit 1/2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 What an exciting few days ahead and as many have mentioned we are missing out on some historic winter weather by just a few weeks/degrees. Anyway, glad to see this thing going sub 980mb, I would love to see it trend a little further west to bring all of WNY into the game. The trees are way behind schedule so I'm guessing we'll see some damage, but this area has been crushed by high wind events over the last year so things are fairly battle hardened. Buffaloweather - A prolonged period of good waterspout parameters also looks good from Mon-Wed. Are you going to chase? I'm going to keep an eye on lake Ontario and may shoot up there is things look good on radar. Not a great fetch for me though. Tim, you're in a nice spot for this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Gfs has a 968 mb low over Watertown. Going to get crushed I think with wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 28, 2017 Author Share Posted October 28, 2017 3 hours ago, DeltaT13 said: What an exciting few days ahead and as many have mentioned we are missing out on some historic winter weather by just a few weeks/degrees. Anyway, glad to see this thing going sub 980mb, I would love to see it trend a little further west to bring all of WNY into the game. The trees are way behind schedule so I'm guessing we'll see some damage, but this area has been crushed by high wind events over the last year so things are fairly battle hardened. Buffaloweather - A prolonged period of good waterspout parameters also looks good from Mon-Wed. Are you going to chase? I'm going to keep an eye on lake Ontario and may shoot up there is things look good on radar. Not a great fetch for me though. Tim, you're in a nice spot for this one! I am off on Monday, I am definitely going out to chase if there is a good possibility of spouts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 28, 2017 Author Share Posted October 28, 2017 3 hours ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Kind of agonizing seeing the modeled storm track coming up. This track in later November thru the winter is the thing snow weenies in Upstate NY daydream about. Seems like Hudson Valley runners are more rare than Buffalo sports teams in the playoffs. On the flip side, BUF snow weenies would be jumping over Niagara Falls reading this... As the upper-level trough becomes negatively tilted with the rapidly intensifying coastal low, this will reinforce the stalled surface boundary near eastern Lake Ontario with increasing frontogensis. The surface low will likely bottom out <980 mb while tracking from near NYC up the Hudson Valley Sunday night. The combination of the coupled jet aloft, strong frontogenesis with the stalled surface front and deformation zone on the back side of the strong surface low, not to mention the tropical moisture source, will place locations from the Genesee Valley east perfectly under the threat for very heavy synoptic rainfall. Model consensus has trended this axis of heaviest precipitation slightly farther west than previous runs. Expect locations from Rochester south to Wellsville and east to the northern Finger lakes to be near the western edge of significant precipitation of about 2-3+ inches. Meanwhile, the most likely axis of heaviest precipitation is along the I-81 corridor from Syracuse to Watertown where 4+ inches of storm total rainfall is possible. Meanwhile this will largely be a non-event for far western NY (Buffalo/Niagara Falls/Dunkirk), where very little rainfall is expected Sunday night, and storm total amounts may be hard pressed to hit 1/2". We had something similar happen last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 28, 2017 Author Share Posted October 28, 2017 The first week of November looks warmer than normal, nothing crazy but the PNA goes negative. We will see a western through and eastern ridge. After that the models diverge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 28, 2017 Author Share Posted October 28, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 28, 2017 Author Share Posted October 28, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 28, 2017 Author Share Posted October 28, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 28, 2017 Author Share Posted October 28, 2017 In the Buffalo news. 28.8 foot wave on Lake Superior shatters Great Lakes records. Incredible stuff. http://buffalonews.com/2017/10/27/great-lakes-largest-wave-logged-this-week-in-michigan-storm/?utm_campaign=puma&utm_medium=social&utm_source=Facebook#link_time=1509122322 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Anyone got maps of euro for wind and rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 965 mb over Watertown tomorrow am. Monroe and Wayne county lake shore goin to take a big hit I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 2 hours ago, tim123 said: 965 mb over Watertown tomorrow am. Monroe and Wayne county lake shore goin to take a big hit I think I'm with you, seems like a very significant storm yet I'm not hearing much about it (From my friends and family at least). I'm getting some barometers set up, might be some of the lowest pressure I've recorded in some time. I would think that Lake Ontario should be under storm warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Already have have 1.35 in the backyard rain guage with nice banding and convergence continually setting up over KROC. Feeling good, especially with the Bills taking care of business!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 29, 2017 Author Share Posted October 29, 2017 This Bills game is incredible. I think we definitely see some grauple early Tuesday when the band is really intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 How about them Bills? All I can say is wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 NWS just upped HWW to 65MPH gusts along the Monroe/Wayne/Cayuga/Oswego shores. Even though we are 'wind hardened', anyone think the wet ground will play a role? Don't want to lose power again (after that severe storm line a couple weeks ago). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 31 minutes ago, vortmax said: NWS just upped HWW to 65MPH gusts along the Monroe/Wayne/Cayuga/Oswego shores. Even though we are 'wind hardened', anyone think the wet ground will play a role? Don't want to lose power again (after that severe storm line a couple weeks ago). Trees my be wind hardened but ground is soaked. Me be more uproots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 And there is a storm warning now from Rochester east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 31 minutes ago, vortmax said: NWS just upped HWW to 65MPH gusts along the Monroe/Wayne/Cayuga/Oswego shores. Even though we are 'wind hardened', anyone think the wet ground will play a role? Don't want to lose power again (after that severe storm line a couple weeks ago). I think the very saturated ground, leaf laden trees, different wind direction from previous events, and relatively long duration of high winds will all come into play to create some localized power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 2 hours ago, DeltaT13 said: I think the very saturated ground, leaf laden trees, different wind direction from previous events, and relatively long duration of high winds will all come into play to create some localized power outages. Thinking we are going to see a lot of power outages...localized may end up being fairly widespread unfortunately, if the predicted wind speed and duration materializes... esp given the aggravating factors you noted. i had 1.32" of rain as of noon today, not much since as I-81 corridor has been in between rain areas most of this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stanleyjenkins Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 50 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Thinking we are going to see a lot of power outages...localized may end up being fairly widespread unfortunately All summer long, end even into fall, houses around me were still having their roofs replaced and repaired from the storm in March. It would be terrible if we see anymore shingles going airborne. If there was a silver lining from that storm, it took down most old, weak, and aging trees already. The wind direction will be a little different though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 Flooding already in eastern monroe county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 Man, this would've been one HECK of a winter storm!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 26 minutes ago, tim123 said: Flooding already in eastern monroe county Yeah, Ellison Park always seems to get flooded... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 30, 2017 Author Share Posted October 30, 2017 52 minutes ago, vortmax said: Man, this would've been one HECK of a winter storm!! Incredible radar. https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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