BuffaloWeather Posted October 23, 2017 Author Share Posted October 23, 2017 On 10/22/2017 at 8:21 AM, wolfie09 said: A little snippet Looking a little farther ahead, the overall pattern evolution over the next two weeks will be for a steady turn towards cooler weather as a longwave trough becomes established over central and eastern North America. This pattern change will be in part driven by the poleward movement of the remnants of Typhoon Lan in the western Pacific by the middle of next week. The resulting influx of latent/sensible heat and vorticity into the mid latitude westerlies will strongly amplify the Pacific wavetrain, which in turn will drive amplification downstream into North America. By the middle of next week, a strong Aleutian Low will force a ridge to build over the Gulf of Alaska, which will drift to the west coast of North America by next weekend. This western ridge is forecast to last into the first week of November, and aid in forcing a deep longwave trough over central and eastern North America. This will bring more fall like weather for the last week of October, and the possibility of the first wintry weather during the first week of November. Stay tuned You know winter is back when Wolfie starts posting. And Ayuud will be back when the first lake effect snow event is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 23, 2017 Author Share Posted October 23, 2017 The average high/low for first week of November is 52/36. You need some pretty big departures to get snow at lower elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 23, 2017 Author Share Posted October 23, 2017 This is a really good look to get some snowcover across Canada ( our source of cold air ) The last 2 years, Canada has been a complete torch in Oct/Nov https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens®ion=namer&pkg=T850a&runtime=2017102300&fh=114&xpos=0&ypos=83.75 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=namer&pkg=T850a&runtime=2017102312&fh=180&xpos=0&ypos=82.63333129882812 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 23, 2017 Author Share Posted October 23, 2017 It's so hard to get a SW flow in winter, yet we get them in bunches before it's cold enough to snow. You guys ready for 2-3" of lake effect rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: It's so hard to get a SW flow in winter, yet we get them in bunches before it's cold enough to snow. You guys ready for 2-3" of lake effect rain? Each run continues to lessen the strength and longevity of the cold. Latest 18z run barely cools us down to normal now. 2 days ago this Sunday had 850s of -6 to -8 now we have +6c 850s which will be mid 50s which is smack dab normal... I don’t see anything impressive at all even around the Halloween timeframe and I’ll put my money no one sees flakes in this forum until November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 Forgot to mention it also shows the ridge rebuilding into the east by the second week of November with temps in the mid 70s. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 24, 2017 Author Share Posted October 24, 2017 .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... We can look forward to our first real shot of cold air of the season during this period...as a deep full latitude trough over the center of the continent will become reinforced from a piece of the polar vortex. This will virtually guarantee that temperatures will drop to below normal levels...and could very easily result in the first measurable lake effect snow of the season. On Sunday...a deep stacked storm system over the Upper Great Lakes will push a strong occlusion through the remainder of our forecast area. This will likely result in more showers across the region... with an emphasis on this activity being placed on sites east of the Genesee Valley. As the residual showers taper off east of Lake Ontario Sunday night...colder air in the wake of the occlusion will become deep enough to support some lake effect rain showers northeast of Lake Erie. Temperatures may become low enough for some of these showers to mix with wet snow. A large chunk of the polar vortex will then settle south to the vicinity of James Bay Monday and Tuesday. This will establish one Giant vortex over eastern Canada that will circulate H85 air as cold as -6c across Lake Ontario. The large scale cyclonic flow will focus lake effect rain and wet snows across the Niagara Frontier and for sites north of the Tug Hill for both days. It is not out of the question that the precipitation could be steady/heavy enough to accumulate as a slushy coating of snow...especially at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stanleyjenkins Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 38 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Sheesh, perhaps I should wheel the snowblower out from the shed this weekend... just in case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, stanleyjenkins said: Sheesh, perhaps I should wheel the snowblower out from the shed this weekend... just in case. 18z gfs in weenieland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stanleyjenkins Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 18z gfs in weenieland Haha, that's true, but it's getting to be that time of the year to rotate the shed and garage anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 25, 2017 Author Share Posted October 25, 2017 55 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 18z gfs in weenieland Yeah I'm not sure I buy that yet. 46 minutes ago, stanleyjenkins said: Haha, that's true, but it's getting to be that time of the year to rotate the shed and garage anyways. Welcome to the forums! In any case the 18 GFS 3 weeks from now would be a heavy LES event. It looks like if we can get heavy enough rates we should be able to see our first flakes across all elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 If only was 15 degrees colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 25, 2017 Author Share Posted October 25, 2017 The first legit Lake effect band of the season, aside from the one in August. Still looks good for a pretty long duration lake effect rain/possible wet snow event next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 Yeah we did have good severe here but that was all July or before which is why I said last couple months. From august till now has been the most boring weather period of my life. I would have to agreeSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stanleyjenkins Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 2 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: If only was 15 degrees colder. 15 degrees colder and flow a little more westerly for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 25, 2017 Author Share Posted October 25, 2017 Yeah, that's a lake effect snow warning easily in a few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 The NWS hazard simplification continues... New Snow Squall Warnings will be issued starting in 2018. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stanleyjenkins Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 Interesting. Any idea if there will be a "Snow Squall Watch" counterpart? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 25, 2017 Author Share Posted October 25, 2017 I kind of like the squall warnings. In our area we get so many arctic fronts in a "normal" winter that bring strong winds, whiteouts, and a few inches of snow. No need for winter weather ads for it as its such a short duration. I'm glad they are keeping the lake effect snow warnings though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 Looks like we’re gonna have to wait a while longer before we see anything of note. .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... While a full latitudinal trough will be in place over the center of the continent throughout this period...the medium range ensembles are in general agreement that H85 temperatures will not be quite as low as earlier forecast. That will lower the potential for the first flakes of the season...but it can still cannot be ruled out. The broad cyclonic flow of relatively chilly air will support lake effect rain showers northeast of the lakes through the period... with just a slight chance for some flakes that could mix in at night. Meanwhile the bulk of the forecast area will be precipitation for the period with temperatures averaging below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 Been getting raked in West Seneca with the lake effect rain. If only it was 10-15 degrees cooler we’d be talking over a foot of snow. 1.02” here for today so far with over half of that falling in the last hour and a half Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stanleyjenkins Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 I have a confession to make this morning. I caved in and had to turn the furnace on. It's all downhill from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 27, 2017 Author Share Posted October 27, 2017 By late Monday into Monday night, lake effect rain showers are expected to develop as cold air advection increases in the wake of the surface low passage to our east, with winds veering to the southwest. This will coincide with a secondary upper-level trough carving out across the Great Lakes, and supplying lift and moisture in the cyclonic flow. Thus fairly robust lake effect rain showers are expected to develop in the vicinity of Buffalo and Watertown overnight. The lake bands should remain fairly stationary through Monday night...with heavy...possibly problematic rains found northeast of lake Erie. Localized flooding in the BUF metro area is not uncommon from stationary lake bands in the Fall...although we have not experienced such in quite some time. H85 temps are forecast to range from -2 to -4c...which should be JUST high enough to prevent any steady snow from developing...although some flakes cannot be ruled out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: By late Monday into Monday night, lake effect rain showers are expected to develop as cold air advection increases in the wake of the surface low passage to our east, with winds veering to the southwest. This will coincide with a secondary upper-level trough carving out across the Great Lakes, and supplying lift and moisture in the cyclonic flow. Thus fairly robust lake effect rain showers are expected to develop in the vicinity of Buffalo and Watertown overnight. The lake bands should remain fairly stationary through Monday night...with heavy...possibly problematic rains found northeast of lake Erie. Localized flooding in the BUF metro area is not uncommon from stationary lake bands in the Fall...although we have not experienced such in quite some time. H85 temps are forecast to range from -2 to -4c...which should be JUST high enough to prevent any steady snow from developing...although some flakes cannot be ruled out. If only another 1-2C colder we’d be talking a blockbuster for the metro, never fails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 Greetings all. By the grace of -name your entity- back for another winter here a bit N of KSYR. Let's go 290 flow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stanleyjenkins Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 1 hour ago, Syrmax said: Let's go 290 flow! I'm a switch hitter here in western 'burbs of Rochester. A 270 flow with some legs and 330 are both in my wheelhouse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 Where you at? I am on east side. Walworth. 310 is sweet here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 Really any thing from 300 to 35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 Only if this was winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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