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On 10/22/2017 at 8:21 AM, wolfie09 said:

A little snippet 

 


Looking a little farther ahead, the overall pattern evolution over
the next two weeks will be for a steady turn towards cooler weather
as a longwave trough becomes established over central and eastern
North America. This pattern change will be in part driven by the
poleward movement of the remnants of Typhoon Lan in the western
Pacific by the middle of next week. The resulting influx of
latent/sensible heat and vorticity into the mid latitude westerlies
will strongly amplify the Pacific wavetrain, which in turn will
drive amplification downstream into North America. By the middle of
next week, a strong Aleutian Low will force a ridge to build over
the Gulf of Alaska, which will drift to the west coast of North
America by next weekend. This western ridge is forecast to last into
the first week of November, and aid in forcing a deep longwave
trough over central and eastern North America. This will bring more
fall like weather for the last week of October, and the possibility
of the first wintry weather during the first week of November. Stay
tuned

You know winter is back when Wolfie starts posting. And Ayuud will be back when the first lake effect snow event is coming. ^_^

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3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

It's so hard to get a SW flow in winter, yet we get them in bunches before it's cold enough to snow. You guys ready for 2-3" of lake effect rain?

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_33.png

 

 

Each run continues to lessen the strength and longevity of the cold. Latest 18z run barely cools us down to normal now. 2 days ago this Sunday had 850s of -6 to -8 now we have +6c 850s which will be mid 50s which is smack dab normal... I don’t see anything impressive at all even around the Halloween timeframe and I’ll put my money no one sees flakes in this forum until November. 

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.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
We can look forward to our first real shot of cold air of the
season during this period...as a deep full latitude trough over the
center of the continent will become reinforced from a piece of the
polar vortex. This will virtually guarantee that temperatures will
drop to below normal levels...and could very easily result in the
first measurable lake effect snow of the season.

On Sunday...a deep stacked storm system over the Upper Great Lakes
will push a strong occlusion through the remainder of our forecast
area. This will likely result in more showers across the region...
with an emphasis on this activity being placed on sites east of the
Genesee Valley.

As the residual showers taper off east of Lake Ontario Sunday
night...colder air in the wake of the occlusion will become deep
enough to support some lake effect rain showers northeast of Lake
Erie. Temperatures may become low enough for some of these showers
to mix with wet snow.

A large chunk of the polar vortex will then settle south to the
vicinity of James Bay Monday and Tuesday. This will establish one
Giant vortex over eastern Canada that will circulate H85 air as cold
as -6c across Lake Ontario. The large scale cyclonic flow will focus
lake effect rain and wet snows across the Niagara Frontier and for
sites north of the Tug Hill for both days. It is not out of the
question that the precipitation could be steady/heavy enough to
accumulate as a slushy coating of snow...especially at night.
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55 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

18z gfs in weenieland

Yeah I'm not sure I buy that yet. ^_^

46 minutes ago, stanleyjenkins said:

Haha, that's true, but it's getting to be that time of the year to rotate the shed and garage anyways.

Welcome to the forums! 

In any case the 18 GFS 3 weeks from now would be a heavy LES event. It looks like if we can get heavy enough rates we should be able to see our first flakes across all elevations. 

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Looks like we’re gonna have to wait a while longer before we see anything of note.

 

 
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
While a full latitudinal trough will be in place over the center of
the continent throughout this period...the medium range ensembles
are in general agreement that H85 temperatures will not be quite as
low as earlier forecast. That will lower the potential for the first
flakes of the season...but it can still cannot be ruled out.

The broad cyclonic flow of relatively chilly air will support lake
effect rain showers northeast of the lakes through the period...
with just a slight chance for some flakes that could mix in at
night. Meanwhile the bulk of the forecast area will be precipitation
for the period with temperatures averaging below normal.
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By late Monday into Monday night, lake effect rain showers are expected to develop as cold air advection increases in the wake of the surface low passage to our east, with winds veering to the southwest. This will coincide with a secondary upper-level trough carving out across the Great Lakes, and supplying lift and moisture in the cyclonic flow. Thus fairly robust lake effect rain showers are expected to develop in the vicinity of Buffalo and Watertown overnight. The lake bands should remain fairly stationary through Monday night...with heavy...possibly problematic rains found northeast of lake Erie. Localized flooding in the BUF metro area is not uncommon from stationary lake bands in the Fall...although we have not experienced such in quite some time. H85 temps are forecast to range from -2 to -4c...which should be JUST high enough to prevent any steady snow from developing...although some flakes cannot be ruled out.

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

By late Monday into Monday night, lake effect rain showers are expected to develop as cold air advection increases in the wake of the surface low passage to our east, with winds veering to the southwest. This will coincide with a secondary upper-level trough carving out across the Great Lakes, and supplying lift and moisture in the cyclonic flow. Thus fairly robust lake effect rain showers are expected to develop in the vicinity of Buffalo and Watertown overnight. The lake bands should remain fairly stationary through Monday night...with heavy...possibly problematic rains found northeast of lake Erie. Localized flooding in the BUF metro area is not uncommon from stationary lake bands in the Fall...although we have not experienced such in quite some time. H85 temps are forecast to range from -2 to -4c...which should be JUST high enough to prevent any steady snow from developing...although some flakes cannot be ruled out.

If only another 1-2C colder we’d be talking a blockbuster for the metro, never fails. 

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