Thinksnow18 Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: I'm not so sure yet. We very well may see NW winds quite a bit too. I don't see a classic event in the near future. 2 observations...the upper level winds per the 18z GFS are ssw above 10000 feet, there is also a perfect signature of the "PV" just north of lake superior, if this is true buffalo's best chance for heavy lake effect woukd be Thursday night into much of Friday...however observation 2 is the GFS all day has been pretty consistent with a LP in the missouri valley which then jogs NE and looks to meander to Lake Erie by saturday which would disrupt much of the flow shredding the LES. As a novice it would appear that low is misplaced and as we get closer to next Monday that low near the missouri Valley will actually be a clipper which back west to west southwest winds to sw or even ssw for a bit. This is to my untrained eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 2, 2017 Author Share Posted December 2, 2017 15 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: 2 observations...the upper level winds per the 18z GFS are ssw above 10000 feet, there is also a perfect signature of the "PV" just north of lake superior, if this is true buffalo's best chance for heavy lake effect woukd be Thursday night into much of Friday...however observation 2 is the GFS all day has been pretty consistent with a LP in the missouri valley which then jogs NE and looks to meander to Lake Erie by saturday which would disrupt much of the flow shredding the LES. As a novice it would appear that low is misplaced and as we get closer to next Monday that low near the missouri Valley will actually be a clipper which back west to west southwest winds to sw or even ssw for a bit. This is to my untrained eye. Yes, but the air is very dry. The band will be weak, if there is one for the Thurs/Friday timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 2, 2017 Author Share Posted December 2, 2017 I don't really see why anyone wouldn't be excited with this pattern. I saw 3-4 potential synoptic systems and 4-5 lake effect events in that last GFS run. One of the best loops I've seen in December in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 That SW that drops through the upper Mid West, and spins up a surface LP over the Miss Valley, is what needs to change. Right now as it stands, 6 days out, lol, Places to the ESE and eventually backing enough, to get the Tug involved stand the best chance of seeing a few inches to perhaps several, but that system will change 15 more times before the globals lock on to a solution. Once that happens, we'll have a better chance, of at least seeing what the prevailing flow will be, at what periods of time. That systems gets blocked big time pretty much right over KDET and then a secondary pops and heads NE, but that too gets blocked, lol, so at this time, I haven't got a clue what that system is gonna end up doing. There may not even be a system as there is a lot of time for things to change big time as the globals have to adjust to the pattern change, so...... Just looked at the other globals and their all on their own right now, but what they all do have is that SW that shoots through the upper mid-west and dives down into the Mid Miss Valley and then models diverge into their own solutions but that's the SW that needs to be watched IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 I'm excited but I don't wanna get too excited yet, lol, as I've been burned way too many times and I have learned but there is definite potential throughout the run so yeah, I'm definitely excited! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 2, 2017 Author Share Posted December 2, 2017 Wow this website is awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 4 hours ago, tim123 said: It' climo for December for buffalo. Rochester many times gets hit more in Jan and march Dude!!! Absolutely! This climo is happening about 2 weeks later than it usually does but as you understand, and ive tried to educate (sounds pretentious) local mets on, this occurs every year. The first digs have a western bias, in that they dig in over the dakotas, move east and revolve around a Hudson Low, creating a SW flow anywhere East of Michigan. No big surprise here. Disappointing for Roc and Syr, but not a big surprise. Sometimes we get lucky on the back end or if a low is encorporated somehow. For now this looks to be a typical late November cold snap that kills Buf. I mean just look at the records regarding snowfall! Buf kills it in November and December. Then Roc and Syr kick in during Jan-March. Give it time. I'm so happy to have a local snow guy who understands the climatology, seasonal and storm wise (retrogrades) of Rochester. You simply cant forecast LES on the south shore with accuracy- so we need to rely on climo! Ok. Enough of the love fest. See ya for the big ones in late January. LOL. (As if we wont sweat the early stuff too). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 4 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: It’s only climo for buffalo because the lake on average begins to freeze in mid to late janaury. Wind direction has no climo, a few years back Watertown got hit with almost 100” of snow in a few weeks in late feb. if lake erie wasn’t frozen buffalo would of had that too. DUDE. A freezing lake IS climo. Its like the definition of climo: "an every year occurrence, expected, not out of the norm". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 2, 2017 Author Share Posted December 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: DUDE. A freezing lake IS climo. Its like the definition of climo: "an every year occurrence, expected, not out of the norm". This is Tims post from yesterday, "Climo favors wsw flow for Dec. Jan Feb it goes more Nw". This is not true, sorry. A meteorologist just said there is no difference in wind directions throughout the winter. See below. 3 hours ago, OSUmetstud said: There's little difference in the composite 850mb winds between Dec Jan and Feb. Intuitively it does make some sense that sw flow events would be slightly more favored in the early season due to the thermal lake-aggregate effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 Dude!!! Absolutely! This climo is happening about 2 weeks later than it usually does but as you understand, and ive tried to educate (sounds pretentious) local mets on, this occurs every year. The first digs have a western bias, in that they dig in over the dakotas, move east and revolve around a Hudson Low, creating a SW flow anywhere East of Michigan. No big surprise here. Disappointing for Roc and Syr, but not a big surprise. Sometimes we get lucky on the back end or if a low is encorporated somehow. For now this looks to be a typical late November cold snap that kills Buf. I mean just look at the records regarding snowfall! Buf kills it in November and December. Then Roc and Syr kick in during Jan-March. Give it time. I'm so happy to have a local snow guy who understands the climatology, seasonal and storm wise (retrogrades) of Rochester. You simply cant forecast LES on the south shore with accuracy- so we need to rely on climo! Ok. Enough of the love fest. See ya for the big ones in late January. LOL. (As if we wont sweat the early stuff too). Not pretentious bro, but downright arrogant I think. Apparently your knowledge of the atmosphere is greater than someone who has gone to school for yrs, and has studied patterns for yrs, and who has forecasted for yrs. My bad bro, we should all listen to you for now on, lol.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 2, 2017 Author Share Posted December 2, 2017 1 minute ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Not pretentious bro, but downright arrogant I think. Apparently your knowledge of the atmosphere is greater than someone who has gone to school for yrs, and has studied patterns for yrs, and who has forecasted for yrs. My bad bro, we should all listen to you for now on, lol. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Did you see that new Dupage weather model page? Just found it today, has some incredible stuff on it. http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 3 hours ago, OSUmetstud said: There's little difference in the composite 850mb winds between Dec Jan and Feb. Intuitively it does make some sense that sw flow events would be slightly more favored in the early season due to the thermal lake-aggregate effect. Rochester rarely gets LES in December. We get it with deep cold snaps in January and even February. Look at the snowfall records. Buf kills it in Nov and Dec. Id love for someone to look into Watertowns records, Id bet (maybe I'd be wrong) that their biggest snowfalls happen in November and December. (Maybe early Jan). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 2, 2017 Author Share Posted December 2, 2017 Top analogs for Thurs/Fri. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F132&rundt=2017120112&map=thbCOOP72 Mean: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: This is Tims post from yesterday, "Climo favors wsw flow for Dec. Jan Feb it goes more Nw". This is not true, sorry. A meteorologist just said there is no difference in wind directions throughout the winter. See below. Average wind vectors don't really prove anything. We are needing wind vectors that delive cold air. None of the three month vectors deliver much of any difference. Yes, our prevailing flow is Westerly, year round. It doesn't prove anything. If you lived in Rochester for 45 years, like i have, you'd understand that we get LES in January, not early December. Look at the snowfall stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 2, 2017 Author Share Posted December 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Rochester rarely gets LES in December. We get it with deep cold snaps in January and even February. Look at the snowfall records. Buf kills it in Nov and Dec. Id love for someone to look into Watertowns records, Id bet (maybe I'd be wrong) that their biggest snowfalls happen in November and December. (Maybe early Jan). Do the research here. Watertown has loads of strong LES events in February. http://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2013-2014&event=J Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Rochester rarely gets LES in December. We get it with deep cold snaps in January and even February. Look at the snowfall records. Buf kills it in Nov and Dec. Id love for someone to look into Watertowns records, Id bet (maybe I'd be wrong) that their biggest snowfalls happen in November and December. (Maybe early Jan). Yeah, I don't think this is true, Rochester does get less snow than BUF in December, but that's just because it's a nickel and dime fest for you guys. Rochester gets bigger events later in the winter because it relies on a very short fetch and so it needs really cold arctic fluff, like you see in January/February. This whole conversation started because someone asserted that the predominant wind direction veers through the winter and that wsw flow events were specifically favored in November and December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 2, 2017 Author Share Posted December 2, 2017 Just now, rochesterdave said: Average wind vectors don't really prove anything. We are needing wind vectors that delive cold air. None of the three month vectors deliver much of any difference. Yes, our prevailing flow is Westerly, year round. It doesn't prove anything. If you lived in Rochester for 45 years, like i have, you'd understand that we get LES in January, not early December. Look at the snowfall stats. Just a couple, but Rochester can get big events anytime but yeah you guys get fluff bombs from the really cold arctic fronts in deep winter. They add up fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 "selective memory" This whole idea that BUF cleans up in November is absurd. There's been a few blockbuster events in the last 20 years that everyone remembers, but most years suck for snow in November in BUF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Do the research here. Watertown has loads of strong LES events in February. http://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2013-2014&event=J Buf average snowfall for December is 27" to Rochester's 22", this despite the fact that Rochester actually gets more annual snowfall than Buf. Why is that? Due to freezing of Erie later? Perhaps. But that takes us back to Tim's original post that it's due to climo, which i agreed with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 Just now, OSUmetstud said: "selective memory" This whole idea that BUF cleans up in November is absurd. There's been a few blockbuster events in the last 20 years that everyone remembers, but most years suck for snow in November in BUF. I'm not just saying November. I'm saying November and December. You wanna say that the big ones don't happen those months? Come on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 For the first time in history, Buf is arguing down their snowfall. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 Days Inches Centimeters 18.0 January 28.2 71.6 14.4 February 21.5 54.6 9.8 March 16.3 41.4 3.2 April 3.9 9.9 0.2 May 0.4 1.0 0.2 October 0.1 0.3 5.6 November 7.3 18.5 14.5 December 21.8 55.4 65.9 Year 99.5 252.7 KROC snow averages. They avg 21.8 in DEC and 28.2 in Jan so this tells me that it snows just as much in Dec in KROC as it does in Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 17 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Did you see that new Dupage weather model page? Just found it today, has some incredible stuff on it. http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ Yes I have BW, and I particularly like the radar site as its very accurate! Yeah, the college of DuPage has a nice Met page as does Penn State with their Eyewall site! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 7 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Days Inches Centimeters 18.0 January 28.2 71.6 14.4 February 21.5 54.6 9.8 March 16.3 41.4 3.2 April 3.9 9.9 0.2 May 0.4 1.0 0.2 October 0.1 0.3 5.6 November 7.3 18.5 14.5 December 21.8 55.4 65.9 Year 99.5 252.7 KROC snow averages. They avg 21.8 in DEC and 28.2 in Jan so this tells me that it snows just as much in Dec in KROC as it does in Jan. Wait. What? Kroc averages 21.8" in Dec and 28.2" in Jan so that tells you what? Excuse me. It is late. But what is your point? Exactly. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 One other thing I cant figure out is why, the SW's that do move through the base of the trough, continue to head to our West unless the models are having a hard time depicting exactly where the Mean Trough is going to be, and how strong the -NAO will actually be when the trough moves through.. Very little difference in Placement of the through axis can have large implications as to can the Ridge axis out West. Like Nick stated, I don't think this is gonna be one of those events where the PV sits over HB and just spins for days and buries WNY because there are too many SW's dropping into the base, which in turn continuously fluctuates the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 Just now, rochesterdave said: Wait. What? Kroc averages 21.8" in Dec and 28.2" in Jan so that tells you what? Excuse me. It is late. But what is your point? Exactly. LOL My point is, you said it rarely snows in December in KROC as it does in Jan and Feb right, or did I forget how to read, lol? This just shows you your dead wrong is all. Look above, Nick actually bolded out where you stated this, and I'm just showing you avg's is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 31 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Rochester rarely gets LES in December. We get it with deep cold snaps in January and even February. Look at the snowfall records. Buf kills it in Nov and Dec. Id love for someone to look into Watertowns records, Id bet (maybe I'd be wrong) that their biggest snowfalls happen in November and December. (Maybe early Jan). Heres your Quote bro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 2, 2017 Author Share Posted December 2, 2017 Good time for a new thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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