Upstate/Eastern New York

[BuffaloWeather]

3 hours ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

The differences between the Euro's predicted snowfall and the Euro's.

EURO

 

I wouldn’t look too much at global as for lake effect. It does give us an idea of location, but they’re terrible for mesoscale events and their details. 

[wolfie09]

Going to need some hefty lake effect events in the 2nd half of December to catch up to the “norm” , next 10 days or so look blah for us downwind..

[Syrmax]

9 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

He already is, lol!

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I saw that...JB is mongering a repeat of Dec 1989. LOL.  Sure, a cold front progged to come thru in December and it might even stay cold for a week or two (not shocking for December), so...let's start throwing around what was about the coldest December ever.  I lived it in CT then and it was an impressively cold month.   But...like a switch, on New Years Eve the pattern flipped, we had rain that night and the rest of the winter was a full on Blowtorch.  And I mean blue hot torching.  Probably won't be hyping that potential outcome...

[Thinksnow18]

1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

Going to need some hefty lake effect events in the 2nd half of December to catch up to the “norm” , next 10 days or so look blah for us downwind..

Where is "downwind" for you? I guess if that vector is out of the NW or WNW your right, anyone whose vector is 280 to 230 will be loving life over the next 2 weeks.

[CNY-LES FREAK]

I wouldn’t look too much at global as for lake effect. It does give us an idea of location, but they’re terrible for mesoscale events and their details. 

I am well aware Globals are not good for LES positioning since I've been looking at them and studying them for 25yrs, lol.? It has nothing to do with the positions of bands and where they are gonna set up. This pattern we seem to be headed into is a cold and dry one, and I could care less about a few clippers passing through with a change in wind direction from WSW to W for days upon days, so all these snow mongers are hyping NOTHING, need to wait another week because they may be real disappointed come next weekend, including WNY! I'd be real excited if I lived in Redfield and points North. That PV is in a terrible place IMO, point blank.

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[CNY-LES FREAK]

Going to need some hefty lake effect events in the 2nd half of December to catch up to the “norm” , next 10 days or so look blah for us downwind..

Stick a fork in us Wolfie09, lol.

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[DeltaT13]

16 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

I am well aware Globals are not good for LES positioning since I've been looking at them and studying them for 25yrs, lol.? It has nothing to do with the positions of bands and where they are gonna set up. This pattern we seem to be headed into is a cold and dry one, and I could care less about a few clippers passing through with a change in wind direction from WSW to W for days upon days, so all these snow mongers are hyping NOTHING, need to wait another week because they may be real disappointed come next weekend, including WNY! I'd be real excited if I lived in Redfield and points North. That PV is in a terrible place IMO, point blank.

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One silver lining to the extended cold (regardless of precip) is that ski resorts will be able to make snow nearly around the clock for what appears to be many days.  I'll take that if nothing else.  

[CNY-LES FREAK]

One silver lining to the extended cold (regardless of precip) is that ski resorts will be able to make snow nearly around the clock for what appears to be many days.  I'll take that if nothing else.  

Yes they will, lol, as they have been since Thanksgiving! Some places had their earliest opening this yr like Bristol. They've been skiing for almost a month already.

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[DeltaT13]

40 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Yes they will, lol, as they have been since Thanksgiving! Some places had their earliest opening this yr like Bristol. They've been skiing for almost a month already.

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Pretty soft openings.  One single half mountain run was nothing more than a publicity stunt IMO.  Anyway, this next bout of weather should really start opening up some runs.  It can't come soon enough.  

[CNY-LES FREAK]

I wonder where all this snow and Lake Effect is coming from because the guru of all models doesn't even have much cold air the next two weeks. And I'm not talking about its operational I'm talking about the EPS.
I'm jumping off this hype train

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[CNY-LES FREAK]

Pretty soft openings.  One single half mountain run was nothing more than a publicity stunt IMO.  Anyway, this next bout of weather should really start opening up some runs.  It can't come soon enough.  

That's funny as they had a whole news segment on it, lol. I wonder how they feel now especially with the two to three inches of rain that's coming the next three days, lol.

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[Thinksnow18]

1 minute ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

I wonder where all this snow and Lake Effect is coming from because the guru of all models doesn't even have much cold air the next two weeks. And I'm not talking about its operational I'm talking about the EPS.
I'm jumping off this hype train

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See you later!

[CNY-LES FREAK]

See you later!

You sure will, perhaps for a few beers in Rochester🤣🤣

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[Thinksnow18]

25 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

You sure will, perhaps for a few beers in Rochester

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I must be missing what your looking at!

[BuffaloWeather]

12 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I must be missing what your looking at!

CIPS analog "mean" snowfall.

6-8 day:

9-11 day

12-14 day

 

[BuffaloWeather]

Not worried:

[BuffaloWeather]

Give me a strong PNA and worry about the rest later. The negative EPO and NAO weakens way out in its timeframe, but by that time climo takes over. Even with normal temps, we get snow by that time. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Lake effect will be figured out in 4-5 days when mesoscale models get involved. Still far to early. The cold is a certainty. 

KBUF:

Much colder air will enter the region Wednesday night and Thursday,
and remain for an extended period of time. This may set the stage for
significant lake effect snow east of Lake Ontario starting Wednesday
night and Thursday. There remains uncertainty at this time range
with the details of band placement and intensity.

The coupling of a negative NAO and positive PNA pattern will result
in an extended period of below normal temperatures and active winter
weather for the Great Lakes starting late next week, and lasting for
an extended period of time. The first few days of the pattern change
late next week will be routine cold, but after about December 10th-
12th there are increasing signals in long range ensemble guidance
that several blasts of true arctic air may be in play for the Great
Lakes and Northeast. Obviously details are impossible to predict at
this time range, but the large scale pattern suggests the
possibility of numerous high impact lake effect snow events during
the 8-14 day period taking us into mid December.

Cleveland:

 

Little change in the extended forecast. Models in good
agreement with the Arctic front pushing through Tuesday night.
Tuesday night the rain will turn to snow. The front will push
east of the area Wednesday morning taking all the precip with
it. Should be a lull before the lake effect begins. The 850mb
temps plunge to -14c by Wednesday afternoon but the deeper
moisture doesnt arrive until Wednesday night. In the forecast
Went likely in the snowbelt Wednesday afternoon but that may be
a tad fast. GFS maintains a west flow while ECMWF has a weak
secondary trough swing across the lake so flow goes from West to
NW back to West. Did not try and be too precise this far out.
Winds gradually back to the southwest on Thursday funneling the
snow up Lake Erie. GFS continues to be faster of the 2 models
with this transition.

Gaylord:

A shortwave moving inland from the Pacific will help drive deep low
pressure out of the Plains early next week. Continues to be pretty
good agreement amongst guidance that this low will pass to our west,
bringing a period of rain Tuesday before an arctic airmass makes a
push into the region, cranking up lake effect snow. Signals
certainly exist for considerable accumulations spanning from mid-
week into early next week. Long range model soundings have
impressive lake induced CAPE values and inversion heights well over
10kft for mid-week. Winds look to be generally W-NW, with american
guidance wanting to bring a late week shortwave through that could
disrupt flow a bit. European guidance isn`t picking up on this.
Exact amounts and intensities are still a bit muddled, but expect
the lake effect to be around for most of the extended, starting
Tuesday night and lasting into the weekend.

Also of note is that there is some divergence in the strength and
duration of high pressure over Greenland setting up a downstream
block, and draining the cold air into the region. European guidance
is a bit weaker with this high, and quicker to move it out. This is
manifesting in a more progressive solution, with the coldest air a
bit warmer than american guidance and also quicker to move out.
American guidance is a bit colder as we get to Saturday, but just
beyond the extended it has a much colder, and thus snowier,
solution. Will see how this develops in the coming days.

Marquette:

In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a deep 500 mb trough over the
central and eastern U.S. with cold air over the area 12z Tue. There
is also a 500 mb ridge over the western U.S. 12z Tue with 850 mb
temperatures around -8C to -10C. There is enough lake-850 mb delta-t
temperatures for lake effect snow then on Tue with Lake Superior
temperatures around 4C. Colder air is across the area 12z Wed with
850 mb temperatures around -15C to -16c with the deep trough over
the area. The trough continues over the area for Thu into Fri with
the cold air remaining. Temperatures will remain below normal for
this forecast period and there will be a prolonged lake effect snow
event out of this period.
&&

[BuffaloWeather]

Decent looking band across southtowns for 6-8 hours on Thurs. I think the strongest "event" will be next weekend. 

[BuffaloWeather]

That storm systems path on the GFS is really bad for LES. I don't see the big time event that was modeled earlier anytime in next 200 hours unfortunately. There will be cold, and there will be snow though. Models are changing so much with every run, we are still 5 days away from that front going through. We will have a better idea of any specifics by Weds/Thurs. 

[rochesterdave]

Things could change, but right now this looks like a classic setup for Metro Buffalo. The type of setup that delivers mountains of snow to the E and NE ends of Erie and Ontario. While areas like Rochester and Syracuse shiver with nothing but leftover flurries. I'll be watching with envy! If your feeling generous could you shift to 300 for a few hours? 

[tim123]

It' climo for December for buffalo. Rochester many times gets hit more in Jan and march

[BuffaloWeather]

18 minutes ago, tim123 said:

It' climo for December for buffalo. Rochester many times gets hit more in Jan and march

It’s only climo for buffalo because the lake on average begins to freeze in mid to late janaury. Wind direction has no climo, a few years back Watertown got hit with almost 100” of snow in a few weeks in late feb. if lake erie wasn’t frozen buffalo would of had that too.

[tim123]

Generally in most winters nw flow events happen later on in winter

[BuffaloWeather]

8 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Generally in most winters nw flow events happen later on in winter

Not really, show me the stats. Ski country south of Buffalo gets many events in early winter, way more than Buffalo does. Just last year there was a huge LES event with a NW flow in November for Rochester, Syracuse, and Binghamton. NW flow is favored for the majority of LES events because that is usually the source direction of cold air in the winter. The upcoming pattern has lots of blocking near Greenland, which will feature rotating waves along the trough axis which will allow the wind direction to veer more SW even SSW at times. There is no climate favored wind direction for lake effect snow. The most common are definitely NW and W due to the source of arctic air. Just look at this page, most events in late Oct/Nov are south of Buffalo. The airports best storms are usually Dec/Jan because that's when lake erie is not frozen yet and climo winter. 

http://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2016-2017&event=A

[BuffaloWeather]

43 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Things could change, but right now this looks like a classic setup for Metro Buffalo. The type of setup that delivers mountains of snow to the E and NE ends of Erie and Ontario. While areas like Rochester and Syracuse shiver with nothing but leftover flurries. I'll be watching with envy! If your feeling generous could you shift to 300 for a few hours? 

I'm not so sure yet. We very well may see NW winds quite a bit too. I don't see a classic event in the near future. 

[OSUmetstud]

There's little difference in the composite 850mb winds between Dec Jan and Feb.  Intuitively it does make some sense that sw flow events would be slightly more favored in the early season due to the thermal lake-aggregate effect. 

 

 

[CNY-LES FREAK]

Generally in most winters nw flow events happen later on in winter

This is so not true Tim, sorry. Last yr in Nov, KSYR got close to 25" with a mean flow throughout the event fluctuating between WNW-NW, so climo means squat.
All you guys out West, when I post, it's for my area, not KBUF, but rather KFZY, which is Fulton. So far, everything I have looked at, is not conducive for big time LES for areas ESE of the lake. But that is definitely a different story out West, so good luck out that way. Hope you get buried, but for us to get in on the action, we'd need a secondary to pop so the flow would back enough to clip the Cuse, which is still on the table, but getting less and less likely.


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[OSUmetstud]

25 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

This is so not true Tim, sorry. Last yr in Nov, KSYR got close to 25" with a mean flow throughout the event fluctuating between WNW-NW, so climo means squat.
All you guys out West, when I post, it's for my area, not KBUF, but rather KFZY, which is Fulton. So far, everything I have looked at, is not conducive for big time LES for areas ESE of the lake. But that is definitely a different story out West, so good luck out that way. Hope you get buried, but for us to get in on the action, we'd need a secondary to pop so the flow would back enough to clip the Cuse, which is still on the table, but getting less and less likely.


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this doesn't like a locked-in PV sitting over the upper lakes where Buf gets clobbered for days scenario.  The NAO blocking has weakened in the modeling, and the trough is sharp and quite meridional.  So I think there will be spray of good LES snows over the lakes with no one getting epic amounts, with the potential for clippers and miller bs to pop given that there is considerable room for the flow to amplify. Also, I think further out looks a bit better for west to wnw flow les, like past day 10. 

 

 

[DeltaT13]

The event last November was quite anomalous so I don't think anyone should be using that data point.  The climo plots above are hard to argue with if you want long averages though and they do not show any distinct difference from month to month.  That said, I would never consider Nov or December the prime months for ROC to get LES snow off Ontario, so I'm curious what exactly causes that.  It's likely related to us needing deeper colder air because we are relying on a shorter fetch; and that certainly comes later into meteorological winter 

Next week and beyond certainly look promising.  You can't wish for something much nicer than this...