BuffaloWeather Posted October 18, 2017 Author Share Posted October 18, 2017 Idk euro looks like a pretty cold outbreak to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: It was the best severe weather year in my life I think. Yeah we did have good severe here but that was all July or before which is why I said last couple months. From august till now has been the most boring weather period of my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 2 hours ago, WesterlyWx said: Yeah we did have good severe here but that was all July or before which is why I said last couple months. From august till now has been the most boring weather period of my life. Hopefully just the calm before the storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 19, 2017 Author Share Posted October 19, 2017 From OSU in regards to best analogs for this winter. "If I had to pick 3 analogs, I think I'd go with 1995-1996, 2000-2001, and 2005-2006. They represent the best matches in enso, amo, pdo, and qbo, especially if the pacific stays on the warmer side." Buffalo Snowfall during those years. 141.4, 158.7, 78.2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: From OSU in regards to best analogs for this winter. "If I had to pick 3 analogs, I think I'd go with 1995-1996, 2000-2001, and 2005-2006. They represent the best matches in enso, amo, pdo, and qbo, especially if the pacific stays on the warmer side." Buffalo Snowfall during those years. 141.4, 158.7, 78.2. Is there a specific reason as to why the 05-06 season was half of the other two seasons? Just curious as to what factors caused that season to be so much lower than the other two. Obviously I’m hoping for one of the other two seasons as that would be absolutely epic after the last couple winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 19, 2017 Author Share Posted October 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Is there a specific reason as to why the 05-06 season was half of the other two seasons? Just curious as to what factors caused that season to be so much lower than the other two. Obviously I’m hoping for one of the other two seasons as that would be absolutely epic after the last couple winters. The Alaskan vortex setup the 2nd half of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 Just recently moved to albany for grad school at UAlbany. Really digging these cool nights and mild days, with low dews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 19, 2017 Author Share Posted October 19, 2017 1 hour ago, LoveSN+ said: Just recently moved to albany for grad school at UAlbany. Really digging these cool nights and mild days, with low dews. Congrats on getting into UAlbany, what are you majoring in? You should of went to Oswego if you want a real winter. We used to have quite a few posters from the Albany area in here a few years ago, now most are from the Syracuse area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 42 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Congrats on getting into UAlbany, what are you majoring in? You should of went to Oswego if you want a real winter. We used to have quite a few posters from the Albany area in here a few years ago, now most are from the Syracuse area. Studying atmospheric science of course! Working with Lance Bosart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 8 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: The Alaskan vortex setup the 2nd half of the winter. It was only there in January actually but the month was basically a total loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: It was only there in January actually but the month was basically a total loss. So if not for that it would have been about average... what are your thoughts for this winter for WNY, Nick? and are you ever coming back to Buffalo lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 13 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: So if not for that it would have been about average... what are your thoughts for this winter for WNY, Nick? and are you ever coming back to Buffalo lol? Well I'm coming back to visit for a week around Thanksgiving with my gf lol. That's basically my thoughts. I'm just dabbling in this stuff. Better than 50 50 chance of colder than normal and Better than 50 50 chance of snowier than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 9 hours ago, WesterlyWx said: Is there a specific reason as to why the 05-06 season was half of the other two seasons? Just curious as to what factors caused that season to be so much lower than the other two. Obviously I’m hoping for one of the other two seasons as that would be absolutely epic after the last couple winters. Anyone have the winter summary map for 05-06? Don't see an active link on the NWS site. It was not a good year for BUF but looking at the storm recap page looks like quite a few decent events for the tug that year. 95-96 and 00-01 were just great years for metro storms. Let's hope those analogs are onto something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 I think there was some bad luck in Dec. 05. The month itself looks favorable for heavy snowfall generally. January was terrible. And February was a bit more on the northwest flow side to be ideal. Also Feb's Synoptic storms were located farther east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 34 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Anyone have the winter summary map for 05-06? Don't see an active link on the NWS site. It was not a good year for BUF but looking at the storm recap page looks like quite a few decent events for the tug that year. 95-96 and 00-01 were just great years for metro storms. Let's hope those analogs are onto something... https://web.archive.org/web/20080510113716/http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/0506snow_summary.htm some of the links work, others don't. I know the Niagara Frontier snowfall totals do work... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 Yeah so really 05-06 was actually a pretty good snow year. Just looks like all the storms were just locked on a westerly flow. Few NW storms and nothing from the SW. Red field and South Dayton both posted over 250" for the season. I would say that's a solid winter.., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 20 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: From OSU in regards to best analogs for this winter. "If I had to pick 3 analogs, I think I'd go with 1995-1996, 2000-2001, and 2005-2006. They represent the best matches in enso, amo, pdo, and qbo, especially if the pacific stays on the warmer side." Buffalo Snowfall during those years. 141.4, 158.7, 78.2. Jesus, if those last 2 analogs are anywhere near right, I'm coming up to chase instead of wasting my time down here lol. I'm in agreement with OSU on the analog package. 05/06 was so close to something semi decent down this way, but we got burned on a few late developing coastals if I remember correctly. Could've went better. I don't even want to talk about 00-01 down here. Good lord. Pretty sure that was the most disappointed I've ever been over a winter as kid. Saw pretty much nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 21, 2017 Share Posted October 21, 2017 Looks like the models are starting to trend colder in the 7+ day range. I'm interested to see if that Super Typhoon Lan has any effects on the pattern when it heads northward. Saw an article how it could displace some artic air and send it our way. Nuri did this back in Nov 2014. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted October 21, 2017 Share Posted October 21, 2017 It's a old observation from ww2 about recurring typhoons. Reverse happens when they head west into china Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 21, 2017 Share Posted October 21, 2017 Yeah it's 10 days out but I don't care. Let's fire up the grill for HalloWENNIE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 21, 2017 Author Share Posted October 21, 2017 15 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Yeah it's 10 days out but I don't care. Let's fire up the grill for HalloWENNIE! Yeah that GFS run was crazy. Lake effect rain/wet snow from day 8 to the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 21, 2017 Author Share Posted October 21, 2017 Couple straight runs now. The Halloween surprise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 21, 2017 Share Posted October 21, 2017 12 GFS looks colder but yeah this is great we got something to watch... 12 Canadian supports the idea as well just not as cold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 21, 2017 Author Share Posted October 21, 2017 1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: 12 GFS looks colder but yeah this is great we got something to watch... 12 Canadian supports the idea as well just not as cold... As we often see in some early season events, the intensity of the precipitation can cause the column to cool enough to drop as mainly snow. The beginning of November is about when we can see snowfall accumulate even in lower elevations, the sun angle is pretty low already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 21, 2017 Share Posted October 21, 2017 Certainly a pretty good signal for some lake effect on all global models during this time. Might not stick super well since the core of the cold looks to be centered over the Midwest, but some flakes in the air look highly probable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 A little snippet Looking a little farther ahead, the overall pattern evolution over the next two weeks will be for a steady turn towards cooler weather as a longwave trough becomes established over central and eastern North America. This pattern change will be in part driven by the poleward movement of the remnants of Typhoon Lan in the western Pacific by the middle of next week. The resulting influx of latent/sensible heat and vorticity into the mid latitude westerlies will strongly amplify the Pacific wavetrain, which in turn will drive amplification downstream into North America. By the middle of next week, a strong Aleutian Low will force a ridge to build over the Gulf of Alaska, which will drift to the west coast of North America by next weekend. This western ridge is forecast to last into the first week of November, and aid in forcing a deep longwave trough over central and eastern North America. This will bring more fall like weather for the last week of October, and the possibility of the first wintry weather during the first week of November. Stay tuned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 Models have really backed off on the strength and duration of the cold shot which is usually the case. Models had 850mb temps getting down to -8c or lower and now they don’t get lower than -4c and this cold shot is also looking more and more transient when it looked like it might stick around for a while. Oh well I guess normal is better than way above average but I don’t think anyone’s going to be seeing any flakes flying around.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 54 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Models have really backed off on the strength and duration of the cold shot which is usually the case. Models had 850mb temps getting down to -8c or lower and now they don’t get lower than -4c and this cold shot is also looking more and more transient when it looked like it might stick around for a while. Oh well I guess normal is better than way above average but I don’t think anyone’s going to be seeing any flakes flying around.... I have to disagree here. The first cold shot (ie, the trough moving in now) has trended weaker, but the troughs forthcoming look stronger in my opinion. Lake effect still looks like it will occur around Halloween. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 19 minutes ago, LoveSN+ said: I have to disagree here. The first cold shot (ie, the trough moving in now) has trended weaker, but the troughs forthcoming look stronger in my opinion. Lake effect still looks like it will occur around Halloween. Yeah lake effect rain unless your sitting on a 2000’ + ridge somewhere on the Chautauqua Ridge or Tug Hill... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 23, 2017 Author Share Posted October 23, 2017 4 hours ago, LoveSN+ said: I have to disagree here. The first cold shot (ie, the trough moving in now) has trended weaker, but the troughs forthcoming look stronger in my opinion. Lake effect still looks like it will occur around Halloween. NWS agrees. Each shot will be progressively colder. It's still Oct 23rd, it's tough to get any snow usually until the 2nd week of November. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The longwave trough over the center of the country will `reload` Friday...as the next vigorous mid level disturbance will dive southwards across the northern plains. This will re-establish the longwave trough while the next (second) shot of colder air will pour southwards into the Lower 48. The leading edge of this next cold shot will follow a cold front that will extend south form a sub-1000mb low over the Upper Great Lakes. This front will make its way across the Lower Great Lakes on Saturday...then is forecast to stall over our forecast area as it will become parallel to the mean H925-70 flow. Following a nice day of weather on Friday...this scenario will favor scattered showers for both days of the weekend. Looking further ahead towards the following week...a third shot of cold air will charge southwards...and this one will have the best chance of supporting our first flakes of the season across our forecast area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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