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From OSU in regards to best analogs for this winter.

"If I had to pick 3 analogs, I think I'd go with 1995-1996, 2000-2001, and 2005-2006.  They represent the best matches in enso, amo, pdo, and qbo, especially if the pacific stays on the warmer side."

Buffalo Snowfall during those years. 141.4, 158.7, 78.2. 

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

From OSU in regards to best analogs for this winter.

"If I had to pick 3 analogs, I think I'd go with 1995-1996, 2000-2001, and 2005-2006.  They represent the best matches in enso, amo, pdo, and qbo, especially if the pacific stays on the warmer side."

Buffalo Snowfall during those years. 141.4, 158.7, 78.2. 

Is there a specific reason as to why the 05-06 season was half of the other two seasons? Just curious as to what factors caused that season to be so much lower than the other two. Obviously I’m hoping for one of the other two seasons as that would be absolutely epic after the last couple winters. 

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4 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Is there a specific reason as to why the 05-06 season was half of the other two seasons? Just curious as to what factors caused that season to be so much lower than the other two. Obviously I’m hoping for one of the other two seasons as that would be absolutely epic after the last couple winters. 

The Alaskan vortex setup the 2nd half of the winter. 

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1 hour ago, LoveSN+ said:

Just recently moved to albany for grad school at UAlbany. Really digging these cool nights and mild days, with low dews. 

Congrats on getting into UAlbany, what are you majoring in? You should of went to Oswego if you want a real winter. ^_^ We used to have quite a few posters from the Albany area in here a few years ago, now most are from the Syracuse area. 

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42 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Congrats on getting into UAlbany, what are you majoring in? You should of went to Oswego if you want a real winter. ^_^ We used to have quite a few posters from the Albany area in here a few years ago, now most are from the Syracuse area. 

Studying atmospheric science of course! Working with Lance Bosart.

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13 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

So if not for that it would have been about average... what are your thoughts for this winter for WNY, Nick? and are you ever coming back to Buffalo lol? 

Well I'm coming back to visit for a week around Thanksgiving with my gf lol.  That's basically my thoughts.  I'm just dabbling in this stuff.  Better than 50 50 chance of colder than normal and Better than 50 50 chance of snowier than normal. 

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9 hours ago, WesterlyWx said:

Is there a specific reason as to why the 05-06 season was half of the other two seasons? Just curious as to what factors caused that season to be so much lower than the other two. Obviously I’m hoping for one of the other two seasons as that would be absolutely epic after the last couple winters. 

Anyone have the winter summary map for 05-06?  Don't see an active link on the NWS site.  It was not a good year for BUF but looking at the storm recap page looks like quite a few decent events for the tug that year.  95-96 and 00-01 were just great years for metro storms.  Let's hope those analogs are onto something... 

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34 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Anyone have the winter summary map for 05-06?  Don't see an active link on the NWS site.  It was not a good year for BUF but looking at the storm recap page looks like quite a few decent events for the tug that year.  95-96 and 00-01 were just great years for metro storms.  Let's hope those analogs are onto something... 

https://web.archive.org/web/20080510113716/http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/0506snow_summary.htm

 

some of the links work, others don't. I know the Niagara Frontier snowfall totals do work...

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20 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

From OSU in regards to best analogs for this winter.

"If I had to pick 3 analogs, I think I'd go with 1995-1996, 2000-2001, and 2005-2006.  They represent the best matches in enso, amo, pdo, and qbo, especially if the pacific stays on the warmer side."

Buffalo Snowfall during those years. 141.4, 158.7, 78.2. 

Jesus, if those last 2 analogs are anywhere near right, I'm coming up to chase instead of wasting my time down here lol. I'm in agreement with OSU on the analog package. 05/06 was so close to something semi decent down this way, but we got burned on a few late developing coastals if I remember correctly. Could've went better. I don't even want to talk about 00-01 down here. Good lord. Pretty sure that was the most disappointed I've ever been over a winter as kid. Saw pretty much nothing. 

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1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

12 GFS looks colder but yeah this is great we got something to watch... 12 Canadian supports the idea as well just not as cold... 

 

IMG_3266.PNG

IMG_3267.PNG

As we often see in some early season events, the intensity of the precipitation can cause the column to cool enough to drop as mainly snow. The beginning of November is about when we can see snowfall accumulate even in lower elevations, the sun angle is pretty low already. 

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A little snippet 

 

Looking a little farther ahead, the overall pattern evolution over
the next two weeks will be for a steady turn towards cooler weather
as a longwave trough becomes established over central and eastern
North America. This pattern change will be in part driven by the
poleward movement of the remnants of Typhoon Lan in the western
Pacific by the middle of next week. The resulting influx of
latent/sensible heat and vorticity into the mid latitude westerlies
will strongly amplify the Pacific wavetrain, which in turn will
drive amplification downstream into North America. By the middle of
next week, a strong Aleutian Low will force a ridge to build over
the Gulf of Alaska, which will drift to the west coast of North
America by next weekend. This western ridge is forecast to last into
the first week of November, and aid in forcing a deep longwave
trough over central and eastern North America. This will bring more
fall like weather for the last week of October, and the possibility
of the first wintry weather during the first week of November. Stay
tuned
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Models have really backed off on the strength and duration of the cold shot which is usually the case. Models had 850mb temps getting down to -8c or lower and now they don’t get lower than -4c and this cold shot is also looking more and more transient when it looked like it might stick around for a while. Oh well I guess normal is better than way above average but I don’t think anyone’s going to be seeing any flakes flying around....

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54 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Models have really backed off on the strength and duration of the cold shot which is usually the case. Models had 850mb temps getting down to -8c or lower and now they don’t get lower than -4c and this cold shot is also looking more and more transient when it looked like it might stick around for a while. Oh well I guess normal is better than way above average but I don’t think anyone’s going to be seeing any flakes flying around....

I have to disagree here. The first cold shot (ie, the trough moving in now) has trended weaker, but the troughs forthcoming look stronger in my opinion. Lake effect still looks like it will occur around Halloween. 

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19 minutes ago, LoveSN+ said:

I have to disagree here. The first cold shot (ie, the trough moving in now) has trended weaker, but the troughs forthcoming look stronger in my opinion. Lake effect still looks like it will occur around Halloween. 

Yeah lake effect rain unless your sitting on a 2000’ + ridge somewhere on the Chautauqua Ridge or Tug Hill...

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4 hours ago, LoveSN+ said:

I have to disagree here. The first cold shot (ie, the trough moving in now) has trended weaker, but the troughs forthcoming look stronger in my opinion. Lake effect still looks like it will occur around Halloween. 

NWS agrees. Each shot will be progressively colder. It's still Oct 23rd, it's tough to get any snow usually until the 2nd week of November.

 

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The longwave trough over the center of the country will `reload`
Friday...as the next vigorous mid level disturbance will dive
southwards across the northern plains. This will re-establish the
longwave trough while the next (second) shot of colder air will pour
southwards into the Lower 48.

The leading edge of this next cold shot will follow a cold front
that will extend south form a sub-1000mb low over the Upper Great
Lakes. This front will make its way across the Lower Great Lakes on
Saturday...then is forecast to stall over our forecast area as it
will become parallel to the mean H925-70 flow. Following a nice day
of weather on Friday...this scenario will favor scattered showers
for both days of the weekend.

Looking further ahead towards the following week...a third shot of
cold air will charge southwards...and this one will have the best
chance of supporting our first flakes of the season across our
forecast area.
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