lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 41 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Delta, you talking about just a get-together or perhaps maybe a Chase and a get together, LOL? Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Probably just a get together but if it just so happens that there’s a chaseable event going on at the same time we could always try and meet there or something. Also what would be a good time frame for it? December or would after the holidays be better for everyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 11 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Probably just a get together but if it just so happens that there’s a chaseable event going on at the same time we could always try and meet there or something. Also what would be a good time frame for it? December or would after the holidays be better for everyone? Id say after the holidays Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 yeah, after sounds good to me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phillifan22 Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 CIPS Runs from this morning (based off GEFS, which is in REMARKABLE agreement with EPS). Mean snowfall plots for late next week/weekend and early the following week (picked mean rather than the 90th percentile plot which was maxing out the scale for both lakes!). So, after the front moves through next Tue/Wed, be ready for the cold and for the slightly-warmer-than-normal-lakes to be firing for a week or more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 1 hour ago, WesterlyWx said: We’d have to find somewhere that works for everyone, so buffalo probably isn’t the best pick being it’s so far west in Upstate. Somewhere around KROC might work as it would be an hour for the BUF folks and an hour for the KSYR crew. Rochester is a good centralized location and we also get the least amount of legit lake effect of the three cities so perhaps this will be our consolation prize (not having to drive far). Also, CNY-Freak..... Buffalo is only about an hour from KROC, so you can't be 45 minutes from KROC and 2.5 hours from Buffalo, haha, something doesnt add up. Still a long drive for you, but maybe not 2.5 hours bad? Anyway, I'm onboard with this idea. I rarely get to talk with people who share our affinity for winter weather. It'd be nice to down some beers and reminisce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 30, 2017 Author Share Posted November 30, 2017 I'd be game for a meet up and agree Rochester is likely the best spot. Hour from Buffalo and hour from Syracuse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 34 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Rochester is a good centralized location and we also get the least amount of legit lake effect of the three cities so perhaps this will be our consolation prize (not having to drive far). Also, CNY-Freak..... Buffalo is only about an hour from KROC, so you can't be 45 minutes from KROC and 2.5 hours from Buffalo, haha, something doesnt add up. Still a long drive for you, but maybe not 2.5 hours bad? Anyway, I'm onboard with this idea. I rarely get to talk with people who share our affinity for winter weather. It'd be nice to down some beers and reminisce. My bad, Exit 45 is about 1:20 minutes so KROC, the city would be an additional 20 minutes or so. right? So yeah, about 1:40 minutes so that sounds better as I'm 30 miles North of the city. My previous residence was closer, lol, I am however about 45 minutes to the Waterloo outlets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 40 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Rochester is a good centralized location and we also get the least amount of legit lake effect of the three cities so perhaps this will be our consolation prize (not having to drive far). Also, CNY-Freak..... Buffalo is only about an hour from KROC, so you can't be 45 minutes from KROC and 2.5 hours from Buffalo, haha, something doesnt add up. Still a long drive for you, but maybe not 2.5 hours bad? Anyway, I'm onboard with this idea. I rarely get to talk with people who share our affinity for winter weather. It'd be nice to down some beers and reminisce. Im also kool with KROC being that its pretty much dead center between KBUF and KSYR. Well not dead center, but close!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Just glancing at the 12Z GFS. Still way out there, but lake effect late next week looks like it could be disrupted by a coastal storm. Wouldn't that be perfect...Boston gets a foot of snow and we get wind shear. Silly to look at details this far out, and things really look to explode over the lower lakes as we push through next weekend. But goes to show lots of scenarios on the table between synoptic systems and anticipated lake effect. Can't wait... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Nothing better than cold and dry conditions, lol. Although KBUF does have a few chances as its showing at least 10" for the City. Yeah its 10 days out,I know but I wanna see how it changes as I'm archiving this outbreak, but i'm really just looking at the overall pattern. For the immediate CNY area, it looks absolutely horrific, but thankfully, it'll change definitively! if i'm not allowed to post these lemme know and I'll stop immediately! ' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 53 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Nothing better than cold and dry conditions, lol. Although KBUF does have a few chances as its showing at least 10" for the City. Yeah its 10 days out,I know but I wanna see how it changes as I'm archiving this outbreak, but i'm really just looking at the overall pattern. For the immediate CNY area, it looks absolutely horrific, but thankfully, it'll change definitively! if i'm not allowed to post these lemme know and I'll stop immediately! ' If it's a big event it'll be north of us up in Appalachia North, where no one lives. Almost always is. So, hoping for some transient LES conditions to develop, else it's just cold and dry here. Of course, looking at global models a week or two out for specific lake snow expectations is a fool's game. All we can expect at this point is that it looks to get cold for a while (it will be December after all) and Joe Bastardi will be aggressively mongering... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 30, 2017 Author Share Posted November 30, 2017 Not really worried. Models look great. Lots of cold air with weak lows and shortwaves traveling along the base of the trough. I am a little worried about shear though, and possibly dry air depending on path of those waves. Those things we will have no idea on for 3-4 days at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 On 11/29/2017 at 6:09 AM, CNY-LES FREAK said: You guys are seriously looking at wind direction from 222hrs out? Some forecasters have a difficult time dealing with wind fluctuations from 24hrs out, and you guys are looking at a surface map, 9 days from now, smh. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk It's like playing a dangerous Russian roulette game lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 30, 2017 Author Share Posted November 30, 2017 9 minutes ago, ayuud11 said: It's like playing a dangerous Russian roulette game lol. Welcome back Ayuud. These forums are all about speculation. My favorite part of the storm is the time leading up to it. It's all a learning experience for me. I think someone will get feet and feet or snow in this pattern come for December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 30, 2017 Author Share Posted November 30, 2017 The end of GFS brings the actual PV to the great lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 30, 2017 Author Share Posted November 30, 2017 The blocking is usually predictable with indices. The type of blocking we are seeing is conducive to migrating bands. But the weak low pressures/clippers will be riding along that trough axis. This gives me more confidence than usual for an extended period of lake effect snow. The details will be straightened out as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 31 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The end of GFS brings the actual PV to the great lakes. Damm man if that were to VERIFY, everybody in Erie county gets the fair share of LES! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 30 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The blocking is usually predictable with indices. The type of blocking we are seeing is conducive to migrating bands. But the weak low pressures/clippers will be riding along that trough axis. This gives me more confidence than usual for an extended period of lake effect snow. The details will be straightened out as we get closer. Climo also supports of winds being from WSW direction earlier in the season.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 1 hour ago, ayuud11 said: Climo also supports of winds being from WSW direction earlier in the season.. The 18z GFS appears to be back to a series if clippers or waves around the parent LP just south of Hudson Bay. I, like Ayuud, believe the upcoming couple weeks will be very good to the majority of WNY with LES...im not going to squabble if southern Erie gets 40" while northern Erie gets 25"...all the same winter looks to be back!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 It's exciting that the Bills will be at home on the 10th. I've always hoped a decent SW event could pummel the stadium during game time. This might finally be the chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 44 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: It's exciting that the Bills will be at home on the 10th. I've always hoped a decent SW event could pummel the stadium during game time. This might finally be the chance. Funny the last time there was a real good lake effect event during a Bills game was on a NW flow but was also against the Colts in Jan of 2010. Was snowing hard all game with huge flakes, was pretty epic...A repeat would be great (the score too lol!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 55 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: It's exciting that the Bills will be at home on the 10th. I've always hoped a decent SW event could pummel the stadium during game time. This might finally be the chance. December 2002 against Miami was pretty darn good. Band didn't move over the stadium until late in the 4th quarter. But the ending was just pure whiteout the camera couldn't even see what was happening on the field. Can't find any good clips but it was a great game. That band but down 2 feet later that night over OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Ha! Just noticed that 2002 bills game storm has been a top analog match for next week on CPC charts for several runs now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 If it's a big event it'll be north of us up in Appalachia North, where no one lives. Almost always is. So, hoping for some transient LES conditions to develop, else it's just cold and dry here. Of course, looking at global models a week or two out for specific lake snow expectations is a fool's game. All we can expect at this point is that it looks to get cold for a while (it will be December after all) and Joe Bastardi will be aggressively mongering...He already is, lol!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 For us to really get into the action, that PV needs to nudge a bit to the East of Hudson/James Bay otherwise a SW/WSW flow will prevail until that PV makes a move. I really got to say the Buffalo metro area is due for a smashing, that's for sure, so let em have it, lol! Maybe it's Buffalo time to win the snowball challenge. KBGM won last yr beating out KSYR which is quite rare.In looking at all the analogs, we got some good snows in all those yrs, so I'm not concerned as our snow will come!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 KBUF issued a HWO including northern Erie about the potential for significant lake effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 The differences between the Euro's predicted snowfall and the Euro's. EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Euro looks blah next weekend. Trof moves out quickly. Hopefully a blip, but have to watch if other models follow same trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 10 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: December 2002 against Miami was pretty darn good. Band didn't move over the stadium until late in the 4th quarter. But the ending was just pure whiteout the camera couldn't even see what was happening on the field. Can't find any good clips but it was a great game. That band but down 2 feet later that night over OP. Got 6 inches in walworth from this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 1, 2017 Author Share Posted December 1, 2017 3 hours ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Euro looks blah next weekend. Trof moves out quickly. Hopefully a blip, but have to watch if other models follow same trend. Ensembles still looked good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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