BuffaloWeather Posted November 29, 2017 Author Share Posted November 29, 2017 27 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Dec. 85 seems pretty prominent on the CPC 6-10 and 8-14 objective analogs. Over 68” of snow at Kbuf that month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Over 68” of snow at Kbuf that month yeah it's number 2 to dec. 2001. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 33 minutes ago, tim123 said: This pattern can give Rochester some good snow off erie I like your optimism but this setup coming is a real heartbreaker for for KROC folks. We usually end up completely on the side lines for days watching ominous bands to our North and South. I've been on the West Side of Rochester for 12 years and don't think we've ever gotten more than 6 inches from an Erie band. It's typically 1-3 and that is usually only when an arctic front grabs the band and juices it up. The downsloping elevation change from Genesee county into Monroe is just too much to overcome, it obliterates the band. I'm thinking I may actually set up South of Buffalo if this verifies, spend a day or two chasing and then hit up Holiday Valley. I need my fix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 29, 2017 Author Share Posted November 29, 2017 Just now, DeltaT13 said: I like your optimism but this setup coming is a real heartbreaker for for KROC folks. We usually end up completely on the side lines for days watching ominous bands to our North and South. I've been on the West Side of Rochester for 12 years and don't think we've ever gotten more than 6 inches from an Erie band. It's typically 1-3 and that is usually only when an arctic front grabs the band and juices it up. The downsloping elevation change from Genesee county into Monroe is just too much to overcome, it obliterates the band. I'm thinking I may actually set up South of Buffalo if this verifies, spend a day or two chasing and then hit up Holiday Valley. I need my fix. Me and Devin will come with you. We’re planning on chasing wherever this sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Me and Devin will come with you. We’re planning on chasing wherever this sets up. This might finally be our chance to meet up. Bring the skis/snowboard too. Hopefully we can rip some POW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 29, 2017 Author Share Posted November 29, 2017 10 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: This might finally be our chance to meet up. Bring the skis/snowboard too. Hopefully we can rip some POW. Yes, we will definitely connect. I have skis and boards all ready to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 This may be a spread the wealth over the entire month. Like I said december is buffalo climo anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 But roc can get some good Erie snow especially If there is a disturbance to go in the flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 Not talking epic amounts but here in walworth in Wayne county have hit 6 inches before and roc has got close to a foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 29, 2017 Author Share Posted November 29, 2017 WNash and Thinksnow, did you guys see the 12z GEM? Also where is Ayuud, he better be here for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: WNash and Thinksnow, did you guys see the 12z GEM? Also where is Ayuud, he better be here for this. Yes and i had to reach for the AED at work !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 23 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: WNash and Thinksnow, did you guys see the 12z GEM? Also where is Ayuud, he better be here for this. Post please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 23 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Post please. I couldnt load the GEM but i did stumble accross the CMC, not reliable but this number looks awesome through next saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 6 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I couldnt load the GEM but i did stumble accross the CMC, not reliable but this number looks awesome through next saturday. GEM and CMC are interchangeable. The GEM is the model put out by the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 GEM and CMC are interchangeable. The GEM is the model put out by the CMC.CMC = Canadian Meteorological CenterSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 29, 2017 Author Share Posted November 29, 2017 Great look on the latest Euro. 1 week from today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 29, 2017 Author Share Posted November 29, 2017 Northeast portion of Erie is still in the 50s. Delta Ts will be very high. https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/glcfs.php?lake=e&ext=swt&type=N&hr=45 Ontario in the high 40s. https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/glcfs.php?lake=o&ext=swt&type=N&hr=42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 29, 2017 Author Share Posted November 29, 2017 Textbook: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 29, 2017 Author Share Posted November 29, 2017 Article from top analog: http://www.nytimes.com/1985/12/30/nyregion/buffalo-meets-record-snow-with-a-shrug.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 Good luck to you folks near the lake. I am researching and tentatively planning a trip for a two nite stay and will narrow down an area as we are closer. Are spots downwind of Erie favored over Ontario or is this a toss up, assuming models have a good handle on things Dont mean to clog up your thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 17 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Article from top analog: http://www.nytimes.com/1985/12/30/nyregion/buffalo-meets-record-snow-with-a-shrug.html Southern tier got smoked as well. I want to say Mayville had something like 130" that month... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 29, 2017 Author Share Posted November 29, 2017 16 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Good luck to you folks near the lake. I am researching and tentatively planning a trip for a two nite stay and will narrow down an area as we are closer. Are spots downwind of Erie favored over Ontario or is this a toss up, assuming models have a good handle on things Dont mean to clog up your thread You're from Mass, so the tug is much closer for you then Buffalo. Devin has chased there quite a bit so maybe he can help you with best spots with actual restaurants, hotels, etc... Most likely Redfield, Oswego, Pulaski, Mexico area. But you should totally come to Buffalo to hang with us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 Ontario usually out performs lake erie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 29, 2017 Author Share Posted November 29, 2017 Yeah, almost always. But much easier to chase in populated areas like the southtowns then the tug. There are hotels and restaurants at every corner here. I think this even has the potential to hit the city and northtowns hard which are really populated and very easy to chase in. 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: Ontario usually out performs lake erie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 Thanks. I may hang in Buffalo lol. S Buffalo i saw mexico was about 5.5 hrs but im sick so i would drive another couple if there is a SW/WSW flow that causes better totals from Erie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 29, 2017 Author Share Posted November 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Thanks. I may hang in Buffalo lol. S Buffalo i saw mexico was about 5.5 hrs but im sick so i would drive another couple if there is a SW/WSW flow that causes better totals from Erie I'm sure the totals will be higher in the Tug, as Tim pointed out they almost always are. But like I said much easier to chase in populated areas. Tug can get very sketchy quite quickly with 5-6" snowfall rates and nothing in sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 13 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I'm sure the totals will be higher in the Tug, as Tim pointed out they almost always are. But like I said much easier to chase in populated areas. Tug can get very sketchy quite quickly with 5-6" snowfall rates and nothing in sight. Very true. The Tug is awesome for insane snow rates and accumulations, but can be VERY dicey if you're not experienced in navigating extreme winter weather. Erie provides a lot of options for chasing where you can either stay put in very nice areas (Ellicottville, East Aurora) that are getting blasted, or drive very short distances from these spots to hit the action. Nothing against Pulaski, Redfield, Adams, etc., but they don't exactly have the amenities of the area south of Buffalo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 Thank you for the responses and suggestions. Ill probably pop back in as we get closer. i dont want to be Jack Nicholson frozen to a bush , in a epic snow band far away from civilization Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 29, 2017 Author Share Posted November 29, 2017 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Thank you for the responses and suggestions. Ill probably pop back in as we get closer. i dont want to be Jack Nicholson frozen to a bush , in a epic snow band far away from civilization A guy from my dads work died in the November 2014 storm. Strong lake effect storms are no joke. https://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/20/nyregion/extreme-snowstorm-pummels-western-new-york.html "In Erie County, which includes Buffalo, a 46-year-old man was found dead inside his car buried under 15 feet of snow in Alden, according to county officials." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: A gprobrom my dads work died in the Novemb er 2014 storm. Strong lake effect storms are no joke. https://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/20/nyregion/extreme-snowstorm-pummels-western-new-york.html "In Erie County, which includes Buffalo, a 46-year-old man was found dead inside his car buried under 15 feet of snow in Alden, according to county officials." I would hunker down in a decent hotel A tad south or se Of Buffalo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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