BuffaloWeather Posted November 28, 2017 Author Share Posted November 28, 2017 3 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said: Yes!!! I was waiting for those words!!! Ive been trying to stay calm while this has been unfolding over the last few days but its getting tough!!! By early next week im am guessing that you will be hearing about a long duration LES event like you have just mentioned...this is also a good match for January of 85 (aka the blizzard of '85)...what a great look on the models and the ensembles agree...i wish there was a footlong weenie emoji!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Im honestly almost scared at how incredible this pattern looks to be unfolding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 28, 2017 Author Share Posted November 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Im honestly almost scared at how incredible this pattern looks to be unfolding. The GFS was ideal, the Euro was good but for wind direction it was more favorable for Nw/W flow as the PNA ridge is farther east then it was in the GFS. We want that ridge a couple hundred miles west on the Euro to get the best flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 28, 2017 Author Share Posted November 28, 2017 Some pretty good agreement. EPS: GEFS: GEPS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Some pretty good agreement. EPS: GEFS: GEPS: Somebody broke the 18z GFS!!! Its been stuck on hour 96 for about 40 minutes!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 well it looks just as good as the 12z but with even better wind flow and more moisture!! 2 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said: Somebody broke the 18z GFS!!! Its been stuck on hour 96 for about 40 minutes!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 This has been the most quiet start to winter east of Mississippi on a long time. Usually when it breaks it breaks hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 29, 2017 Author Share Posted November 29, 2017 1 hour ago, tim123 said: This has been the most quiet start to winter east of Mississippi on a long time. Usually when it breaks it breaks hard Not really, it's only Nov 28th. 2013 and 2014 were good but the last 2, especially 2015 were terrible. 2016 was good for Rochester west terrible for WNY. Then we have the 2 terrible winters between 2011-2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 20 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Not really, it's only Nov 28th. 2013 and 2014 were good but the last 2, especially 2015 were terrible. 2016 was good for Rochester west terrible for WNY. Then we have the 2 terrible winters between 2011-2013. You meant east right? Buffalo didn't get squat last November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 29, 2017 Author Share Posted November 29, 2017 1 hour ago, WesterlyWx said: You meant east right? Buffalo didn't get squat last November. Yeah east. The 0Z GFS had meandering bands of LES from Thurs 12/7 to the end of its run Fri 12/15. Still so far out. Once we get to Sunday night I feel like we will have a much better idea of what happens late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 29, 2017 Author Share Posted November 29, 2017 GEM has hopped on board with its LES set-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 GEM has hopped on board with its LES set-up.You guys are seriously looking at wind direction from 222hrs out? Some forecasters have a difficult time dealing with wind fluctuations from 24hrs out, and you guys are looking at a surface map, 9 days from now, smh.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 3 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: You guys are seriously looking at wind direction from 222hrs out? Some forecasters have a difficult time dealing with wind fluctuations from 24hrs out, and you guys are looking at a surface map, 9 days from now, smh. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk We understand that and obviously we know that when were discussing it that things can and likely will change. This is a weather forum and discussing things even as silly as it might seem to you isn’t hurting anybody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 We understand that and obviously we know that when were discussing it that things can and likely will change. This is a weather forum and discussing things even as silly as it might seem to you isn’t hurting anybody. As silly as it might seem to me? Now that's funny, lol.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 It seems a given that someone will get slammed in the upcoming pattern from like day 8/9 onward....pv just sites over Hudson Bay with way colder than normal air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 1 hour ago, OSUmetstud said: It seems a given that someone will get slammed in the upcoming pattern from like day 8/9 onward....pv just sites over Hudson Bay with way colder than normal air. And with a setup like that chances are high that a prevailing wsw wind will be the vector...that doesnt take much thinking to come to that conclusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 Can't say those of us that sit east of ROC are thrilled with this setup, but definitely happy the pattern is finally changing with some staying power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 1 minute ago, vortmax said: Can't say those of us that sit east of ROC are thrilled with this setup, but definitely happy the pattern is finally changing with some staying power. There's always oscillations in the flow that you won't be able to see in an ensemble mean this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 Climo favors wsw flow for Dec. Jan Feb it goes more Nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 Going to be an agonizing next few days waiting for all the details to line up but loving the potential this is showing. Guess flexing my vacation week from mid Nov to mid Dec is going to pay off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 29, 2017 Author Share Posted November 29, 2017 4 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: You guys are seriously looking at wind direction from 222hrs out? Some forecasters have a difficult time dealing with wind fluctuations from 24hrs out, and you guys are looking at a surface map, 9 days from now, smh. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk I don’t see any sustained flow with this upcoming pattern. I see meandering bands. But with that Atlantic blocking it allows those who get hit by sw flow to be a bit more excited than usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 3 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Going to be an agonizing next few days waiting for all the details to line up but loving the potential this is showing. Guess flexing my vacation week from mid Nov to mid Dec is going to pay off. Same I’ll be off for 19 out of 31 days in december so I can’t wait to chase, or better yet if I can sit in my house by the fireplace and watch it roar outside! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 29, 2017 Author Share Posted November 29, 2017 2 hours ago, OSUmetstud said: It seems a given that someone will get slammed in the upcoming pattern from like day 8/9 onward....pv just sites over Hudson Bay with way colder than normal air. Way out there, but how similar is this to the Dec 2001 upper level pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 29, 2017 Author Share Posted November 29, 2017 WXwatcher, get your vacation time planned, this is the one to chase. You can choose a location off both lakes I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Way out there, but how similar is this to the Dec 2001 upper level pattern? It was already brought up by a poster from a couple days ago when mentioning similar patterns that produced long duration severe winter weather for the GL region...i would also harken back to 1985 as well...i believe all of erie county will see the lions share of this event, who gets the most is not relevant as we will all see good accums IF the pattern unfolds as it currently is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 29, 2017 Author Share Posted November 29, 2017 CIPS analogs just got updated and showing massive totals for top 5 analogs. West to SW flow favored locations. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/EXT_DFHR1.php?fhr=F240&rundt=2017112900&map=COSN90p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 17 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Way out there, but how similar is this to the Dec 2001 upper level pattern? That was a more sustained block, u can see the bridge connecting from the yukon into the nao domain with the lowest height anomalies in the lower lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 This pattern can give Rochester some good snow off erie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 Can't say those of us that sit east of ROC are thrilled with this setup, but definitely happy the pattern is finally changing with some staying power.Don't concern yourself with such details. It's a given that the Tug and Watertown are gonna get the Lion Share with the flow it's showing, but we'll get ours too, as it's also a given.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 Dec. 85 seems pretty prominent on the CPC 6-10 and 8-14 objective analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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