Thinksnow18 Posted November 26, 2017 Share Posted November 26, 2017 2 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: It seems as though people don't read properly, LOL. I'm not freaking out TS, as I simply stated, it's a very unusually quiet late November, which is true NO, lol?? Then I go on to say there probably won't be any changes for a couple, to a few weeks, which is exactly right, so what's the issue? Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Lol i guess ive just gone past the next 10 days is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 26, 2017 Author Share Posted November 26, 2017 Finally a light at end of tunnel? First sign of true arctic air I've seen in the last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 26, 2017 Share Posted November 26, 2017 35 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Finally a light at end of tunnel? First sign of true arctic air I've seen in the last week. It is dry as in nothing showing this far out storm wise but it is something! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 26, 2017 Share Posted November 26, 2017 53 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: It is dry as in nothing showing this far out storm wise but it is something! That’s the theme this year, cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 26, 2017 Share Posted November 26, 2017 19 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Interesting read... http://buffalonews.com/2017/11/24/don-paul-better-lake-effect-forecasts-are-coming/?utm_campaign=puma&utm_medium=social&utm_source=Facebook#link_time=1511636597 Had no idea they were installing these towers in the lakes. Thanks for the Don Paul links. Pretty good reading. Caught up on a lot of his stuff just now. Not sure why I never bookmarked him but that's fixed! Trace of snow here this a.m. I don't get too concerned about Nov snow, or lack thereof. More interested in how patterns and various indices are developing. We average ~9" of snow at KSYR for November and we will probably end up a bit under that this year but not a shutout, which we've seen many times. November snow never sticks around very long anyway. Even last year's 20" was gone in a week or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 26, 2017 Author Share Posted November 26, 2017 14 hours ago, WesterlyWx said: That’s the theme this year, cold and dry. We have the lake, don't need too much moisture. Just enough to get some lift. Next Lake Effect Event next Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 26, 2017 Author Share Posted November 26, 2017 Long range GEFS looking much better. -5 temp anomalies for early/mid December is cold enough for snow at almost any part of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 26, 2017 Author Share Posted November 26, 2017 Euro starting to show it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 26, 2017 Share Posted November 26, 2017 8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Euro starting to show it too. Hi Rich Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 26, 2017 Author Share Posted November 26, 2017 2 hours ago, MillvilleWx said: Hi Rich I don't have access to anything beyond 240 hours on Euro, anywhere to get for free? This is just an incredible set-up for big LES events. Can we lock this in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 26, 2017 Author Share Posted November 26, 2017 This will get Ayuud excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 26, 2017 Author Share Posted November 26, 2017 NWS Thoughts: After that, model guidance and the pattern evolution over the past few days has suggested a notable pattern change taking place during the second week in December. The strong East Asian Jet will weaken and break down with time, and a longwave ridge will begin to take shape along or just offshore of the west coast of North America. The blocking ridge will remain over the North Atlantic near Greenland and the Davis Strait, which will begin to project more on a negative NAO pattern. The AO (Arctic Oscillation) will also become more negative with time as blocking matures over the high arctic. The MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) is forecast to remain weak though the period with little influence on the northern hemispheric circulation pattern. The combination of a weakening of the East Asian Jet, building west coast ridge, and blocking near Greenland should all promote the development of a longwave trough over central and eastern North America during the second week in December. This should allow for more cold air to flow southward across Canada and into the north central and northeastern U.S., including our region, starting somewhere around December 10th. At this time range this is all predicated on model and ensemble data, but if the pattern change verifies we will see a notable move towards more cold and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 26, 2017 Share Posted November 26, 2017 I don't have access to anything beyond 240 hours on Euro, anywhere to get for free? This is just an incredible set-up for big LES events. Can we lock this in. It’s a juicy setup and why I’ve been excited for a while. Stuff can change, but it’s becoming pretty clear that the disruption going on up top will lead to some interesting weather for East of the Mississippi. Lot of consensus going on. That certainly helps. Will we finish well below normal in the temp department for Dec? Still up in air. Can we do it, you certainly can in this setup. Long fetch events may be more common if we get that kind of H5 representation Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 26, 2017 Author Share Posted November 26, 2017 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: It’s a juicy setup and why I’ve been excited for a while. Stuff can change, but it’s becoming pretty clear that the disruption going on up top will lead to some interesting weather for East of the Mississippi. Lot of consensus going on. That certainly helps. Will we finish well below normal in the temp department for Dec? Still up in air. Can we do it, you certainly can in this setup. Long fetch events may be more common if we get that kind of H5 representation Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yeah, that's what I like the most of this upcoming pattern. The cold air is in the midwest as well, just not northeast. We will see more W/SW flows with this kind of setup if we can get the cold air. It's still 2 weeks away though, so anything can still happen or be pushed back in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah, that's what I like the most of this upcoming pattern. The cold air is in the midwest as well, just not northeast. We will see more W/SW flows with this kind of setup if we can get the cold air. It's still 2 weeks away though, so anything can still happen or be pushed back in time. Also been watching this for a few days now...the evolution to this pattern will come with a cutter i suppose and the models have thataround next Wednesday the 6th. Optimistic but guarded for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 Time sensitive...if you want to watch a football game in a snowstorm...check out the CFL Grey Cup Final on ESPN2 right now...being played in Ottawa... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 36 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Time sensitive...if you want to watch a football game in a snowstorm...check out the CFL Grey Cup Final on ESPN2 right now...being played in Ottawa... Ya pretty cool watching Shania Twian performing at halftime in the snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 16 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Ya pretty cool watching Shania Twian performing at halftime in the snow! Pretty cool watching them come out and literally plow the entire field with a pickup truck because of how much snow was on the field! That’s awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 That same batch of precipitation is moving through northern New York right now. Winter Weather Advisories are up for Oswego County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 27, 2017 Author Share Posted November 27, 2017 17 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: That same batch of precipitation is moving through northern New York right now. Winter Weather Advisories are up for Oswego County. Didn't even see that 3-5" of snow expected. ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected. * WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. * WHEN...7 PM today to 10 AM Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 Snowing pretty good with some pellets mixed in, coating of snow to show for it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 28, 2017 Author Share Posted November 28, 2017 Weeklies continue to look good. Looks like Dec. 8-10th timeframe is when we start to see the flip. I'll get a new thread going for Dec. 1st soon. This was the best looking weeklies run in years. Triple -EPO/+PNA/-AO block for the entire run. The last time this happened during a La Nina was December 2000 and 1985. Both of these years had very large LES events. The whole run averaged out for December looks like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 Weeklies continue to look good. Looks like Dec. 8-10th timeframe is when we start to see the flip. I'll get a new thread going for Dec. 1st soon. This was the best looking weeklies run in years. Triple -EPO/+PNA/-AO block for the entire run. The last time this happened during a La Nina was December 2000 and 1985. Both of these years had very large LES events. The whole run averaged out for December looks like this Yeah, I'd have to agree as that's a pretty classic look for extreme cold and snow, if moisture is present, so we'll have to wait and see what this pattern change delivers. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 While reading a tweet from Dr. Judah Cohen this guy popped up: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 28, 2017 Author Share Posted November 28, 2017 3 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said: While reading a tweet from Dr. Judah Cohen this guy popped up: Cohen has been wrong More than he has been right. The last 2 years has above average Siberian snow cover and we had record warm winters back to back. From my research I think there is a stronger coorelation between Canadian snow cover(our source of cold air) then Siberia snowcover for cold air in the Great Lakes and northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 26 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Cohen has been wrong More than he has been right. The last 2 years has above average Siberian snow cover and we had record warm winters back to back. From my research I think there is a stronger coorelation between Canadian snow cover(our source of cold air) then Siberia snowcover for cold air in the Great Lakes and northeast. That may be correct, however, the first of thise 2 years was one of the strongest el ninos on record so whatever happened up in the arctic we didnt have a chance at winter that year, last year the pac jet raged as the left over heat from the previous super el nino was still around and didn't really subside until the middle of this year. If we remember the super el nino of 97-98 the following year followed the same path that this super el nino did. While cohen has been wrong he is by far not the only met or model calling for this pattern change. I brought this change up almost 5 days ago and every model, ensemble and met is on board with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 28, 2017 Author Share Posted November 28, 2017 50 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: That may be correct, however, the first of thise 2 years was one of the strongest el ninos on record so whatever happened up in the arctic we didnt have a chance at winter that year, last year the pac jet raged as the left over heat from the previous super el nino was still around and didn't really subside until the middle of this year. If we remember the super el nino of 97-98 the following year followed the same path that this super el nino did. While cohen has been wrong he is by far not the only met or model calling for this pattern change. I brought this change up almost 5 days ago and every model, ensemble and met is on board with this. Getting much closer in timeframe and still consistently showing on all models. It's not the greatest synoptic set-up though, but lakes should be averaging well above normal by then. We won't need much to get them going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 28, 2017 Author Share Posted November 28, 2017 Hey Thinksnow, you see the placement of that low over Hudson Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 28, 2017 Author Share Posted November 28, 2017 That GFS run was just incredible. One of the best for long duration LES that I've seen. The blocking across the Atlantic and the positive PNA allows the PV to pay a visit to midwest and northeast in a series of waves riding along the elongated trough axis. I count a total of 3-4 over the course of 10 days. It reminds me of Dec 2001. I'm officially on the hype train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 23 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: That GFS run was just incredible. One of the best for long duration LES that I've seen. The blocking across the Atlantic and the positive PNA allows the PV to pay a visit to midwest and northeast in a series of waves riding along the elongated trough axis. I count a total of 3-4 over the course of 10 days. It reminds me of Dec 2001. I'm officially on the hype train. Yes!!! I was waiting for those words!!! Ive been trying to stay calm while this has been unfolding over the last few days but its getting tough!!! By early next week im am guessing that you will be hearing about a long duration LES event like you have just mentioned...this is also a good match for January of 85 (aka the blizzard of '85)...what a great look on the models and the ensembles agree...i wish there was a footlong weenie emoji!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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