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Upstate/Eastern New York

BuffaloWeather

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Thinksnow18

Thinksnow18

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

It seems as though people don't read properly, LOL. I'm not freaking out TS, as I simply stated, it's a very unusually quiet late November, which is true NO, lol?? Then I go on to say there probably won't be any changes for a couple, to a few weeks, which is exactly right, so what's the issue?



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Lol i guess ive just gone past the next 10 days is all.

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Syrmax

Syrmax

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19 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Interesting read...

http://buffalonews.com/2017/11/24/don-paul-better-lake-effect-forecasts-are-coming/?utm_campaign=puma&utm_medium=social&utm_source=Facebook#link_time=1511636597

Had no idea they were installing these towers in the lakes.  

Thanks for the Don Paul links.  Pretty good reading.  Caught up on a lot of his stuff just now.  Not sure why I never bookmarked him but that's fixed!  

Trace of snow here this a.m.  I don't get too concerned about Nov snow, or lack thereof. More interested in how patterns and various indices are developing.  We average ~9" of snow at KSYR for November and we will probably end up a bit under that this year but not a shutout, which we've seen many times. November snow never sticks around very long anyway. Even last year's 20" was gone in a week or less.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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NWS Thoughts: 

After that, model guidance and the pattern evolution over the past
few days has suggested a notable pattern change taking place during
the second week in December. The strong East Asian Jet will weaken
and break down with time, and a longwave ridge will begin to take
shape along or just offshore of the west coast of North America. The
blocking ridge will remain over the North Atlantic near Greenland
and the Davis Strait, which will begin to project more on a negative
NAO pattern. The AO (Arctic Oscillation) will also become more
negative with time as blocking matures over the high arctic. The MJO
(Madden Julian Oscillation) is forecast to remain weak though the
period with little influence on the northern hemispheric circulation
pattern.

The combination of a weakening of the East Asian Jet, building west
coast ridge, and blocking near Greenland should all promote the
development of a longwave trough over central and eastern North
America during the second week in December. This should allow for
more cold air to flow southward across Canada and into the north
central and northeastern U.S., including our region, starting
somewhere around December 10th. At this time range this is all
predicated on model and ensemble data, but if the pattern change
verifies we will see a notable move towards more cold and snow.
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MillvilleWx

MillvilleWx

Posted
Posted
I don't have access to anything beyond 240 hours on Euro, anywhere to get for free? This is just an incredible set-up for big LES events. Can we lock this in. 

PSN72020_gefsF312.png&key=d6d550d24d50dfb09a8a783b4f2159244ed835c05b37bb609d8905c1bbca368c



It’s a juicy setup and why I’ve been excited for a while. Stuff can change, but it’s becoming pretty clear that the disruption going on up top will lead to some interesting weather for East of the Mississippi. Lot of consensus going on. That certainly helps. Will we finish well below normal in the temp department for Dec? Still up in air. Can we do it, you certainly can in this setup. Long fetch events may be more common if we get that kind of H5 representation


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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

 


It’s a juicy setup and why I’ve been excited for a while. Stuff can change, but it’s becoming pretty clear that the disruption going on up top will lead to some interesting weather for East of the Mississippi. Lot of consensus going on. That certainly helps. Will we finish well below normal in the temp department for Dec? Still up in air. Can we do it, you certainly can in this setup. Long fetch events may be more common if we get that kind of H5 representation


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Yeah, that's what I like the most of this upcoming pattern. The cold air is in the midwest as well, just not northeast. We will see more W/SW flows with this kind of setup if we can get the cold air. It's still 2 weeks away though, so anything can still happen or be pushed back in time. 

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Thinksnow18

Thinksnow18

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2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah, that's what I like the most of this upcoming pattern. The cold air is in the midwest as well, just not northeast. We will see more W/SW flows with this kind of setup if we can get the cold air. It's still 2 weeks away though, so anything can still happen or be pushed back in time. 

Also been watching this for a few days now...the evolution to this pattern will come with a cutter i suppose and the models have thataround next Wednesday the 6th. Optimistic but guarded for sure!

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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17 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

That same batch of precipitation is moving through northern New York right now. Winter Weather Advisories are up for Oswego County. 

Didn't even see that 3-5" of snow expected. 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions. Total
  snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...7 PM today to 10 AM Monday.
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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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Weeklies continue to look good. Looks like Dec. 8-10th timeframe is when we start to see the flip. I'll get a new thread going for Dec. 1st soon. 

This was the best looking weeklies run in years. Triple -EPO/+PNA/-AO block for the entire run. The last time this happened during a La Nina was December 2000 and 1985. Both of these years had very large LES events. 

The whole run averaged out for December looks like this

A.png.07fe081f9bea59a771e3d321acec6ea6.png

 

 

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CNY-LES FREAK

CNY-LES FREAK

Posted
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Weeklies continue to look good. Looks like Dec. 8-10th timeframe is when we start to see the flip. I'll get a new thread going for Dec. 1st soon. 

This was the best looking weeklies run in years. Triple -EPO/+PNA/-AO block for the entire run. The last time this happened during a La Nina was December 2000 and 1985. Both of these years had very large LES events. 

The whole run averaged out for December looks like this

A.png.07fe081f9bea59a771e3d321acec6ea6.png

 

 

Yeah, I'd have to agree as that's a pretty classic look for extreme cold and snow, if moisture is present, so we'll have to wait and see what this pattern change delivers.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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3 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

While reading a tweet from Dr. Judah Cohen this guy popped up:

Screenshot_20171128-062835.png

Cohen has been wrong More than he has been right. The last 2 years has above average Siberian snow cover and we had record warm winters back to back. From my research I think there is a stronger coorelation between Canadian snow cover(our source of cold air) then Siberia snowcover for cold air in the Great Lakes and northeast. 

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Thinksnow18

Thinksnow18

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26 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Cohen has been wrong More than he has been right. The last 2 years has above average Siberian snow cover and we had record warm winters back to back. From my research I think there is a stronger coorelation between Canadian snow cover(our source of cold air) then Siberia snowcover for cold air in the Great Lakes and northeast. 

That may be correct, however, the first of thise 2 years was one of the strongest el ninos on record so whatever happened up in the arctic we didnt have a chance at winter that year,  last year the pac jet raged as the left over heat from the previous super el nino was still around and didn't really subside until the middle of this year. If we remember the super el nino of 97-98 the following year followed the same path that this super el nino did. While cohen has been wrong he is by far not the only met or model calling for this pattern change. I brought this change up almost 5 days ago and every model, ensemble and met is on board with this.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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50 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

That may be correct, however, the first of thise 2 years was one of the strongest el ninos on record so whatever happened up in the arctic we didnt have a chance at winter that year,  last year the pac jet raged as the left over heat from the previous super el nino was still around and didn't really subside until the middle of this year. If we remember the super el nino of 97-98 the following year followed the same path that this super el nino did. While cohen has been wrong he is by far not the only met or model calling for this pattern change. I brought this change up almost 5 days ago and every model, ensemble and met is on board with this.

Getting much closer in timeframe and still consistently showing on all models. It's not the greatest synoptic set-up though, but lakes should be averaging well above normal by then. We won't need much to get them going. 

eps_t850_anom_noram_276.thumb.png.416569fe6baffdf9e1d0ab9cc3779c63.png

gfs-ens_T850a_us_46.png

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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That GFS run was just incredible. One of the best for long duration LES that I've seen. The blocking across the Atlantic and the positive PNA allows the PV to pay a visit to midwest and northeast in a series of waves riding along the elongated trough axis. I count a total of 3-4 over the course of 10 days. It reminds me of Dec 2001. I'm officially on the hype train. 

 

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Thinksnow18

Thinksnow18

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23 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That GFS run was just incredible. One of the best for long duration LES that I've seen. The blocking across the Atlantic and the positive PNA allows the PV to pay a visit to midwest and northeast in a series of waves riding along the elongated trough axis. I count a total of 3-4 over the course of 10 days. It reminds me of Dec 2001. I'm officially on the hype train. 

 

Yes!!! I was waiting for those words!!! Ive been trying to stay  calm while this has been unfolding over the last few days but its getting tough!!! By early next week im am guessing that you will be hearing about a long duration LES event like you have just mentioned...this is also a good match for January of 85 (aka the blizzard of '85)...what a great look on the models and the ensembles agree...i wish there was a footlong weenie emoji!!!

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