CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 Nice little response off the SE of the Lake right now as was expected by local and the NWS. Too bad its rain, actually just looked, as its now snizzling @36f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 A few snow showers passing through here right now. The temperature has fallen from 39 to 34 but it's still too warm for a ny accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 I see Cohen is struggling with the indicies like we are...his latest twitter blurbs states that while all 3 show we should be cold by beginning of december the ensembles show differently. However he does show the GFS has been consistent in the PV weakening and shifting around by the beginning of December as well so maybe the modrls havent caught on yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 I see Cohen is struggling with the indicies like we are...his latest twitter blurbs states that while all 3 show we should be cold by beginning of december the ensembles show differently. However he does show the GFS has been consistent in the PV weakening and shifting around by the beginning of December as well so maybe the modrls havent caught on yet.There are quite a few contradictions right now. The MJO is not acting normally as there is enhanced convection in and around the Indian Ocean which argues for a ridge, but there's also EC in and around the DL, which favors a trough. The pattern is wicked progressive even with a blocky look to the H5 so verdicts out as to where we go from here. I haven't got a clue and won't even attempt to have one. One thing is the models may not be catching on yet, who knows????Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 Need a monster lake cutter to shake up this horrible pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 Happy thanksgiving everyone, have a safe and happy holiday!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 You too Wolfie!Happy Thanksgiving to all and here's to getting a nice surprise Sat -Sun 🤣🤣Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 00Z Euro has W-CNY getting into the upper 50's and with enough sunshine, we may perhaps get to the 60 degree mark, woo hoo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 3 hours ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: 00Z Euro has W-CNY getting into the upper 50's and with enough sunshine, we may perhaps get to the 60 degree mark, woo hoo! Sounds like a good day to put up the Christmas lights! And Happy Thanksgiving to everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 Just watched Spectrum 1's Winter outlook and its a complete rollercoaster with a +NAO most of the time. Basically Dec= Abv avg temps, below snowfall, Jan= Abv avg temps, avg Snowfall and finally Feb= Avg temps, abv avg snowfall so I guess we'll see. I personally dont wanna see this kind of variability this Winter. They also said not much blocking and I 100% disagree qith this because of the current Easterly QBO which promotes a blocky pattern as well as the -AO which is being forecasted by the EURO for now at least. The Tropiocal Pacific isn'r really helping out as there are contradicting signals currently! I say good luck to all the brave long range outlook guys out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Sounds like a good day to put up the Christmas lights! And Happy Thanksgiving to everyone! Definitely! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 23, 2017 Author Share Posted November 23, 2017 Happy thanksgiving all! =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 On 11/21/2017 at 0:51 PM, DeltaT13 said: It's an interesting discussion and one we revisit often on here. If the NWS was calling for clear skies or just flurries, I would say the forecast busted. However the forecast gave most locations on the south shore at least a chance at some heavier squalls with potentially a few inches in localized areas. If you got 1-2 inches more than the 1-2 forecast I hardly call that a bust. I'm very surprised at the level of accuracy that people demand from forecasters these days. Certainly not something I envy and it makes me glad I didnt become a professional forecaster for my day job. If I looked at the forecast and what happened that night I would give them nearly 100 percent grade with respect to timing, placement, and accumulations. They covered their bases and no one should have been shocked unless totals got above say 6 or 8 inches (in Monroe County). Even way down my way I figured there was a chance I would wake up to 2-3 inches or maybe bare ground The forecast seemed good to me, but I guess I'm much more lenient. I'm just glad we have snow to talk about and the Rochester clan is back posting. Agree with this. Trying to assign a specific percentage accuracy/inaccuracy to judge snowfall forecasts is a noobs game. For this past event earlier this week, the forecast for CNY worked out pretty well. Generally 6-8" (isolated 10") were forecast for much of Onandaga county. Based on CoCoRAHS reports I saw, and what fell IMBY (5") actual totals probably came in an inch or two light so maybe didn't verify the Warning criteria verbatim, but it was close enough. If the event has fizzled and generally only 1-3" fell in the warning area, that would have been a forecast bust IMO. So I'd probably consider the first Warning to have verified though maybe not quite meeting the strict definition of Warning criteria (7"+ in 24 hrs?) snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 23 hours ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Just watched Spectrum 1's Winter outlook and its a complete rollercoaster with a +NAO most of the time. Basically Dec= Abv avg temps, below snowfall, Jan= Abv avg temps, avg Snowfall and finally Feb= Avg temps, abv avg snowfall so I guess we'll see. I personally dont wanna see this kind of variability this Winter. They also said not much blocking and I 100% disagree qith this because of the current Easterly QBO which promotes a blocky pattern as well as the -AO which is being forecasted by the EURO for now at least. The Tropiocal Pacific isn'r really helping out as there are contradicting signals currently! I say good luck to all the brave long range outlook guys out there. Please tell me your not seriously considering that outlook? The spectrum weather is on par with accuweather in that neither are all that credible...been on the Mid-Atlantic boards since yesterday and they are all over the lr with a pattern to colder weather on the EPS, GEFS, and the weeklies after the first week of december. All indicues point to this and we are in no way looking like the past two winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 24, 2017 Author Share Posted November 24, 2017 22 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Please tell me your not seriously considering that outlook? The spectrum weather is on par with accuweather in that neither are all that credible...been on the Mid-Atlantic boards since yesterday and they are all over the lr with a pattern to colder weather on the EPS, GEFS, and the weeklies after the first week of december. All indicues point to this and we are in no way looking like the past two winters. I agree the long range looks a little better, but it's still to far out to take seriously at all. The last 2 years showed the long range getting cold quite a few times and never came to fruition. As we got closer it kept getting pushed farther and farther back in time and never happened. Until I see it within 7-10 days its tough to get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 Please tell me your not seriously considering that outlook? The spectrum weather is on par with accuweather in that neither are all that credible...been on the Mid-Atlantic boards since yesterday and they are all over the lr with a pattern to colder weather on the EPS, GEFS, and the weeklies after the first week of december. All indicues point to this and we are in no way looking like the past two winters. I only commented on it, doesn't mean I agree with it, lol, as It can't be any more farther from my thoughts. Their +NAO forecast for the Winter is laughable, big time, as Easterly QBO's combined with Solar Min are notorious signals for blocking sometimes locking in, so as I was watching I was saying, what are they looking at? Also low end Nina's are known for bringing the Northern most States the cold and snow but their forecast is for abv avg temps most of the time.Just because we disagree, doesn't mean it'll be a bust right, so we'll revisit verification time in March or end if Feb! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 24, 2017 Author Share Posted November 24, 2017 5 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: I only commented on it, doesn't mean I agree with it, lol, as It can't be any more farther from my thoughts. Their +NAO forecast for the Winter is laughable, big time, as Easterly QBO's combined with Solar Min are notorious signals for blocking sometimes locking in, so as I was watching I was saying, what are they looking at? Also low end Nina's are known for bringing the Northern most States the cold and snow but their forecast is for abv avg temps most of the time. Just because we disagree, doesn't mean it'll be a bust right, so we'll revisit verification time in March or end if Feb! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Until I see the Pacific cooperate, I won't get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Until I see the Pacific cooperate, I won't get excited. See you in mid-late December Rich Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 24, 2017 Author Share Posted November 24, 2017 17 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: See you in mid-late December Rich I’m going to hold you to this Scott. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 There is high confidence that temperatures will average above normal for our region during this period. While this will not be unusual in itself...it will be given the forecast hemispheric pattern. A rather strong Greenland block will be in place...but rather than having a closed upstream low over eastern Canada...the flow will be progressive and pacific in nature. This will keep true cold air locked north of 50N...with only brief...transitory visits of chilly air. It also does not help that the coldest air in the northern hemisphere is on the other side of the pole. On a day to day basis...Basically in a nut shell, this is our weatherFor the foreseeable future. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 Just our luck to have most of the players on the field, and we still can't score any points, funny stuff!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 Trying to figure out why everyone keeps saying that all the cold air is on the other side of the pole, which is just wrong and I'm sick of hearing it! It's -10's all over North central Canada. I mean how cold do we want it to be? Let's be reasonable here. It needs to be 32f to snow, NOT -10f, so who gives a flyin turd if all the cold is in Eurasia. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 1 hour ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Trying to figure out why everyone keeps saying that all the cold air is on the other side of the pole, which is just wrong and I'm sick of hearing it! It's -10's all over North central Canada. I mean how cold do we want it to be? Let's be reasonable here. It needs to be 32f to snow, NOT -10f, so who gives a flyin turd if all the cold is in Eurasia. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk The ensembles, all of them, show the pattern shifting to a western ridge eastern trough roughly aroubf the 6 -8 of December and the indicies agree...these arent operational runs and have been trending this way for 3 days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 The ensembles, all of them, show the pattern shifting to a western ridge eastern trough roughly aroubf the 6 -8 of December and the indicies agree...these arent operational runs and have been trending this way for 3 days now.This might be the quietest late November that I can remember. Usually right around this time is when we see our first blockbuster of the yr, les wise, but not this yr. Very quiet conditions prevail, and doesn't look like any changes are a commin, any time soon.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 I'd say mid-December will be our best bet shot for our first big synoptic & LES events. Almost all of the teleconnectors in that time frame are trending in our favor: -NAO, -EPO, +PNA, -AO, +WPO, even the MJO is moving towards phases 7&8 (although there's lag with this one). Looks encouraging to me. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 2 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: This might be the quietest late November that I can remember. Usually right around this time is when we see our first blockbuster of the yr, les wise, but not this yr. Very quiet conditions prevail, and doesn't look like any changes are a commin, any time soon. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk You're freaking out. There are plenty of signs. Do a little digging. Im not the greatest at pinning or copying and pasting so head over to the mid Atlantic forum and read the december long range post, jump to the last couple of pages and all the necessary proof will be there for you. Heights in the arctic are going bananas after the first week of December, the PV becomes increasingly perturbed and the ao and nao all go negative and the pna positive. It's all a great sign and again not operational models. The next 10 days suck and then things start to improve greatly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 25, 2017 Author Share Posted November 25, 2017 3 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said: You're freaking out. There are plenty of signs. Do a little digging. Im not the greatest at pinning or copying and pasting so head over to the mid Atlantic forum and read the december long range post, jump to the last couple of pages and all the necessary proof will be there for you. Heights in the arctic are going bananas after the first week of December, the PV becomes increasingly perturbed and the ao and nao all go negative and the pna positive. It's all a great sign and again not operational models. The next 10 days suck and then things start to improve greatly. It's still to far out to take seriously at all. Anything beyond 10 days is guesswork. I think it will be the 3rd week of December before we see any cold air around here. Also these indexes change on the daily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 Interesting read... http://buffalonews.com/2017/11/24/don-paul-better-lake-effect-forecasts-are-coming/?utm_campaign=puma&utm_medium=social&utm_source=Facebook#link_time=1511636597 Had no idea they were installing these towers in the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 You're freaking out. There are plenty of signs. Do a little digging. Im not the greatest at pinning or copying and pasting so head over to the mid Atlantic forum and read the december long range post, jump to the last couple of pages and all the necessary proof will be there for you. Heights in the arctic are going bananas after the first week of December, the PV becomes increasingly perturbed and the ao and nao all go negative and the pna positive. It's all a great sign and again not operational models. The next 10 days suck and then things start to improve greatly.It seems as though people don't read properly, LOL. I'm not freaking out TS, as I simply stated, it's a very unusually quiet late November, which is true NO, lol?? Then I go on to say there probably won't be any changes for a couple, to a few weeks, which is exactly right, so what's the issue?Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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