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BuffaloWeather

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CNY-WXFREAK

CNY-WXFREAK

Posted
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very negative EPO forecasted by the EURO in the long range.  it tries to go Pos but puts the brakes on and heads the opposite direction so......  We all know that a -EPO is very much correlated to a cold NE so lets see how this works out.

ecmwf_epo_bias(39).png

However, the AO is headed in the wrong direction as it heads POS

 ecmwf_ao_bias.png

The NAO looks to be following its counterparrt as it heads POS

ecmwf_nao_bias.png

And finally, the PNA is currently POS and looks to stay that way however it is on the weak side.

ecmwf_pna_bias.png

So this is quite interesting as the Pacific is currently cooperating if you want Cold and Snow but the other 2 are both POS and that's traditionally a warm signal so I will be watching this to see which trumps which.  The Pacific has usually more of an impact, on the pattern, as a whole versus both the PNA and the EPO.

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CNY-WXFREAK

CNY-WXFREAK

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Next 10 days looks absolutely disgusting if your a winter weather enthusiast like we all are especially if you don't live E-SE of one of the Lakes and even where snow does fall it will melt very quickly.  I'm not sure where all these news outlets are getting all this cold air from next week? I've actually seen temps in the upper 20's for highs next Monday but nowhere do I see this on either of the Global models so IDK.

And I've looked at the GFS and they look worse than the EURO, lol.

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Thinksnow18

Thinksnow18

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2 hours ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Next 10 days looks absolutely disgusting if your a winter weather enthusiast like we all are especially  you don't live E-SE of one of the Lakes and even where snow does fall it will melt very quickly.  I'm not sure where all these news outlets are getting all this cold air from next week? I've actually seen temps in the upper 20's for highs next Monday but nowhere do I see this on either of the Global models so IDK.

And I've looked at the GFS and they look worse than the EURO, lol.

I was actually just going to post the opposite...the wrf is showing a perturbed, albeit mildly, PV the end of November early December...the PV will be sliding into the eurasia side however cohen and others like the idea if colder air into the northeast,  the problem im seeing is its dry air after a 1 or 2 day "warm up"then 2 to 3 days of truly chilly air but little moisture. Thinking thats how this pattern will be for a couple weeks until something disrupts the storm track south of here.

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DeltaT13

DeltaT13

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4 hours ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Next 10 days looks absolutely disgusting if your a winter weather enthusiast like we all are especially if you don't live E-SE of one of the Lakes and even where snow does fall it will melt very quickly.  I'm not sure where all these news outlets are getting all this cold air from next week? I've actually seen temps in the upper 20's for highs next Monday but nowhere do I see this on either of the Global models so IDK.

And I've looked at the GFS and they look worse than the EURO, lol.

The next 10 days looks downright good for this time of year (IE: marginal shots at some flakes, temps below freezing some days).  It's not like its mid January and we are blowtorching.  We can routinely have highs in the 50's and 60's this time of year.  Let's tone down the panic, we are off to a better than normal start in my opinion with a few transient cold shots on the horizon.  Things are going to be ok.  

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DeltaT13

DeltaT13

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

Irondequoit. This is after hours of melting. We got 4" or so. NWS didn't see my area getting hit. Tim did. 

IMG_3991.JPG

The NWS maps routinely had 2-4 called out for Northern/Northeastern Monroe county.  If you flip back a few pages you can see the forecasts.  The HRR also pegged the band that hit you quite well.  I wouldnt say this was unexpected at all.  Anyway, be happy nothing but a sugar coat down south of the city.  

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CNY-LES FREAK

CNY-LES FREAK

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Posted
The next 10 days looks downright good for this time of year (IE: marginal shots at some flakes, temps below freezing some days).  It's not like its mid January and we are blowtorching.  We can routinely have highs in the 50's and 60's this time of year.  Let's tone down the panic, we are off to a better than normal start in my opinion with a few transient cold shots on the horizon.  Things are going to be ok.  

I disagree, but I guess we'll see. Avg temp is 47, where I am for mid November, it's gonna be 55 tomorrow after today's low 30's. I don't like riding a Camels back so to speak, I'd rather a 10 day period of cold with a relaxation period in between, while the cold reloads. These are just my thoughts, and I'm glad you see a different outcome.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

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Thinksnow18

Thinksnow18

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Posted
2 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

I disagree, but I guess we'll see. Avg temp is 47, where I am for mid November, it's gonna be 55 tomorrow after today's low 30's. I don't like riding a Camels back so to speak, I'd rather a 10 day period of cold with a relaxation period in between, while the cold reloads. These are just my thoughts, and I'm glad you see a different outcome.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
 

Yeah what you speak of would be perfect and my thinking is that type of pattern will begin to take shape in the mid of December and begin to take hold for a while bu late December early January...and to this point we are (at KBUF) almost 4 degrees below average for November and a good number of days forecast below the daily average for the remainder of the month...we just havent lined up any precip with the colder temps.

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CNY-LES FREAK

CNY-LES FREAK

Posted
Posted
Yeah what you speak of would be perfect and my thinking is that type of pattern will begin to take shape in the mid of December and begin to take hold for a while bu late December early January...and to this point we are (at KBUF) almost 4 degrees below average for November and a good number of days forecast below the daily average for the remainder of the month...we just havent lined up any precip with the colder temps.

Those were the days where Winter hit, and stuck till January with a mid month thaw for about a week or 2, then right back to it for 6-8 wks. Those winters are now, few and far between, like 2013-14 as that hit and didn't leave till March, lol. Actually, it was too cold, but there was no complaining at all, lol.

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Thinksnow18

Thinksnow18

Posted
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38 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Those were the days where Winter hit, and stuck till January with a mid month thaw for about a week or 2, then right back to it for 6-8 wks. Those winters are now, few and far between, like 2013-14 as that hit and didn't leave till March, lol. Actually, it was too cold, but there was no complaining at all, lol.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
 

I have to say that February was incredible from a wall to wall cold and snow here in WNY...if memory serves me 2015 February was similar as well...heres to hoping!!!

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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48 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Yeah what you speak of would be perfect and my thinking is that type of pattern will begin to take shape in the mid of December and begin to take hold for a while bu late December early January...and to this point we are (at KBUF) almost 4 degrees below average for November and a good number of days forecast below the daily average for the remainder of the month...we just havent lined up any precip with the colder temps.

lake erie already 1 degree below normal. This is a really bad pattern for WNY as the lake is getting cold quick with barely any LES to show for it. Would rather have 50-60 and sunny.

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Thinksnow18

Thinksnow18

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

lol at the complaining. You guys suck its nov. 20th.  next 10 average below normal.  


 

Actually im good with it, im a glass half full guy, always have been but with a realistic view built in! I actually just perused the 12z GFS and I absolutely love hour 192 (next Sunday) through just about the end of the run, there appears to be a good match with the GEFS that we will turn much colder towards the end of November early December...and as was previously stated my confidence is growing in this type of pattern because the gfs and euro both nailed the cold air in advance we just had and the blast a week ago. Getting excited.

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Thinksnow18

Thinksnow18

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Still going to be very transient for awhile. 

4indices.png

Well out of those 4 pics I like the -EPO...you know im starting think back to 2009-10. If memory serves me it was a very cold January and February with a transient December...all with a mainly positive AO and NAO through that period.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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3 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Well out of those 4 pics I like the -EPO...you know im starting think back to 2009-10. If memory serves me it was a very cold January and February with a transient December...all with a mainly positive AO and NAO through that period.

New weeklies have a -AO look wire to wire, with a -NAO much of the time.

eta- NPAC looks fantastic. -EPO, and no sign of a trough out west until near the end of the run, which is early Jan. We hope. 

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rochesterdave

rochesterdave

Posted
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19 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

The NWS maps routinely had 2-4 called out for Northern/Northeastern Monroe county.  If you flip back a few pages you can see the forecasts.  The HRR also pegged the band that hit you quite well.  I wouldnt say this was unexpected at all.  Anyway, be happy nothing but a sugar coat down south of the city.  

I actually gave the hrrr credit (and Tim) in one of my posts. The NWS maps had Irondequoit brushed by the 1-2 color. At midnight on Sunday and before any accums, my point and click had 30% of snow showers with .5" or less. I looked. If measured correctly, I got at least 4.5" snow and .5" liquid for that very same forecast period. 

So their forecast was a bust in my opinion. But lake effect is horrendous to forecast off of Lake Ontario. Off the south shore, it's impossible. Areas 3 miles south of me got zero. I'm not being critical of NWS- none of Roc mets saw anything more than 1" or so. Just was loving the surprise nature of it. 

 

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stanleyjenkins

stanleyjenkins

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1 hour ago, rochesterdave said:

So their forecast was a bust in my opinion. But lake effect is horrendous to forecast off of Lake Ontario. Off the south shore, it's impossible. Areas 3 miles south of me got zero. I'm not being critical of NWS- none of Roc mets saw anything more than 1" or so. Just was loving the surprise nature of it.

I had a thought the other day that kind of relates to this, I think. 

What exactly do they define as "snow accumulation"? For example, I live in Chili and if I measured snow as the guidelines say over the weekend, I would officially have had trace; however, say my snowboard was chilled and didn't allow any melting, I bet I would have had an inch or more as most of my snow  fell in a handful of passing bursts of snow over the course of a few hours when temps were still in the upper 30s and melted after about 10-15 minutes, before hourly measurements could have been taken.

So I guess in my mind, over an inch did fall, but never was able to accumulate on the ground to anything more than a trace.

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DeltaT13

DeltaT13

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

I actually gave the hrrr credit (and Tim) in one of my posts. The NWS maps had Irondequoit brushed by the 1-2 color. At midnight on Sunday and before any accums, my point and click had 30% of snow showers with .5" or less. I looked. If measured correctly, I got at least 4.5" snow and .5" liquid for that very same forecast period. 

So their forecast was a bust in my opinion. But lake effect is horrendous to forecast off of Lake Ontario. Off the south shore, it's impossible. Areas 3 miles south of me got zero. I'm not being critical of NWS- none of Roc mets saw anything more than 1" or so. Just was loving the surprise nature of it. 

 

It's an interesting discussion and one we revisit often on here.  If the NWS was calling for clear skies or just flurries, I would say the forecast busted.  However the forecast gave most locations on the south shore at least a chance at some heavier squalls with potentially a few inches in localized areas.  If you got 1-2 inches more than the 1-2 forecast I hardly call that a bust. 

I'm very surprised at the level of accuracy that people demand from forecasters these days.  Certainly not something I envy and it makes me glad I didnt become a professional forecaster for my day job.  If I looked at the forecast and what happened that night I would give them nearly 100 percent grade with respect to timing, placement, and accumulations.  They covered their bases and no one should have been shocked unless totals got above say 6 or 8 inches (in Monroe County).  Even way down my way I figured there was a chance I would wake up to 2-3 inches or maybe bare ground  The forecast seemed good to me, but I guess I'm much more lenient. 

I'm just glad we have snow to talk about and the Rochester clan is back posting.   
 

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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
Posted

A little lake enhancement this weekend on a NNW flow?

Hwo
A cold front will push south across our region Saturday evening. While this front will likely generate an inch or so accumulation of snow, a prolonged 12 to 18 hour period of widespread lake enhanced snow could produce challenging travel conditions from late Saturday night into sunday night. This would include a very busy travel day on Sunday. The area that would have the highest potential for slick travel would be from Batavia to Oswego County, including the New York State Thruway

 

Afd 

This
will be a stronger frontal passage...one that will usher H85 temps
as low as -12c across Lake Ontario and the eastern Lake Ontario
region. While this is not as cold as earlier forecast...it is
certainly cold enough to establish accumulating lake snows southeast
of both lakes. The frontal passage itself should generate a coating
an inch of accumulation across the forecast area...with several
inches looking more plausible for the Chautauqua ridge and from
Wayne County east across the southern half of Oswego county. Have
raised pops to categorical for these areas. The stage will then be
set for what could be a challenging day for travel on Sunday.

 

  
Medium range ensembles remain in good agreement that a cold cyclonic
northerly flow will be in place over our region on Sunday...while
fairly deep synoptic moisture will persist. Given that H85 temps are
forecast to be in the vcnty of -12c and that there should be some
added lift from the northerly upslope flow...fairly steady snow
should be found southeast of both lakes...including along the bulk
of the New York State Thruway. While accumulations are not expected
to be significant in themselves...it could be cold enough for the
snow to be a little more greasy so that untreated roadways would be
more difficult to navigate. Stay tuned
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