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Upstate/Eastern New York


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If she goes quasi stationary, we'll hit double digits but I'm always sceptical of bands forecasted 24hr in advance to only hit 5 miles to our North or South, for that matter. Like you said though, it does look promising.

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I said it right here, and this is precisely what happened. Absolutely disgusting, and so it begins! Snow hole is now over KFZY, lol!!

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Good luck to all, as I think we're relying on guidance way to much, and not enough on pattern recognition. There's no westerly wind flow, throughout the column, but somehow the guidance still puts the damn band in Central Oswego cty. I'm not gonna go crazy over this, as the season is still, in it's infancy.

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Kbuf from this morning 

 

 
First for Lake Erie...a general 290-300 flow will be in place
throughout the day with a cap below 10k ft. While this flow will
allow for some upstream priming off multiple lakes...the relatively
low cap and only marginally cold near surface conditions should
limit snowfall to a few inches...with the higher amounts coming over
terrain above 1500 ft. As we push through tonight though...the cold
air will deepen and the inversion will lift to 10k ft or better.
This...and the overnight timing...will favor higher and more
widespread accumulations. Nighttime accumulations will be in the
vcnty of 2 to 4 inches away from the lake...with the higher amounts
being concentrated across the higher terrain.

In regards to lake snows from Lake Ontario...as is usually the case
it will take several more hours for a noticeable lake response.
There will be a little more shear and slightly `warmer` profile over
the lake through early afternoon...but as we progress through the
afternoon into the evening hours...a fairly well organized band of
lake snow should become focused on Wayne and northern Cayuga
counties. As in the case of Lake Erie...the cap will be under 10k ft
so am not expecting overly generous amounts of snow for the daylight
hours. Amounts will likely range from a coating to an inch or so. As
we push through tonight...the cap will lift to more than 10k ft with
a fairly solid upstream connection becoming established with
Georgian Bay. While this will lead to greater snowfall rates...the
band is forecast to oscillate enough to keep the snow from
accumulating more than 3 to 5 inches in any one spot from the
northeast corner of Wayne County to south central Oswego County.
Will maintain the winter storm watch for lake effect snow for this
area and allow additional guidance to help in doing additional fine
tuning. From this vantage point though...the most significant lake
snows in this area should occur from late tonight through Monday

With that being said, P&C showing 6”-10”, so we’ll see..

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I seriously think this lake is gonna just spew snow, as conditions are quite favorable with moisture throughout the column. The CF has made it to Eastern NY already while 3 hrs ago it was in WNY.  We're waiting on that blob of cold air dropping SEward and entering the upper Great Lakes. The issue is, when that colder air arrives later tonight the winds veer just enough behind that CF to send the band into C-Oswego for the remainder of the event until it finally heads North.  So we have to wait and see. I'm still confident we see at least 2-4" throughout the area but I think the double digit snows will head for the Tug. What else is new, lol, and its no surprise!  

rtma_tmp2m_conus.png

 

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Slushy coating here at 1100' in southern Orchard Park last night. It was 54F when I went to bed at 11pm, and there was already a coating on the grass when I randomly woke up at 3:00. Very impressive front. I think the bulk of the lake effect off Erie will be south of my location, but the snow squall parameter is quite high throughout all of western New York late this afternoon and evening...so as the s/w sweeps over the region, it may carry some streamers/squalls from Lake Huron down across the Niagara Frontier. No big totals in the immediate BUF area, but a good squall or two can always be fun. We'll see how this unfolds.

OPsnow.jpg

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Hrrr looks good for eastern suburbs of roc

hrrr_asnow_neus_18-1.thumb.png.d877f05c597e35881915eea697f896d8.png

So apparently the HRRR has the band South of Oswego County completely so right there it's wrong already as there's already a band established in Central Oswego County as it just needs some aggregation from GB, which will happen this evening, tonight!

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