rochesterdave Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 It's good to be back. It looks like Kroc gets the big blow by from this salvo. Good luck Syracuse! I'll be watching as it evolves. Hope we get some epic **** this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 KSYR 7.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 Ksyr 3.2" suny Oswego 5.4" kroc 1.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 Canadian shows 2 to 4 roc area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 Oz rgem still looks good for southern/central Oswego county, 3k nam shifted the heaviest stuff to the north into central Oswego county..Just waiting for that last second shift lol Going to be hard to pinpoint that “mega band”.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 6z rgem joins the north trend , two maximums and less in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 If she goes quasi stationary, we'll hit double digits but I'm always sceptical of bands forecasted 24hr in advance to only hit 5 miles to our North or South, for that matter. Like you said though, it does look promising. Sent from my SM-G930V using TapatalkI said it right here, and this is precisely what happened. Absolutely disgusting, and so it begins! Snow hole is now over KFZY, lol!!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 Although, I'm sure there's a margin for error, as a 5-10 mile shift either way should be expected, No? But there has definitely been a North trend, no doubt about It! We're not even gonna see a flake with the initial changeover, as it's still too warm, lol. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 Yup definitely busted on the changeover from the synoptic snow, nada here, nothing. Precip past and not a flake. Will be lucky if I catch a dusting on a passing lake streamer later. Man this season has some bad luck so far. Good luck to everyone else! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 Flipped to snow here and that “snow hole” on the rgem is actually south of kfzy lol But trend needs to stop lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 Local wrf models hitting monroe and Wayne county hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 Good luck to all, as I think we're relying on guidance way to much, and not enough on pattern recognition. There's no westerly wind flow, throughout the column, but somehow the guidance still puts the damn band in Central Oswego cty. I'm not gonna go crazy over this, as the season is still, in it's infancy. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 The problem is that abrupt change from NW-W tomorrow am, this could create a max SW and N/NE of this area.. I got burned much worse in year 1 (twice), trust me LOL I grew up to 20” a year winters and now I’m 10 miles Downwind of LO, not much to fret about lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 Kbuf from this morning First for Lake Erie...a general 290-300 flow will be in place throughout the day with a cap below 10k ft. While this flow will allow for some upstream priming off multiple lakes...the relatively low cap and only marginally cold near surface conditions should limit snowfall to a few inches...with the higher amounts coming over terrain above 1500 ft. As we push through tonight though...the cold air will deepen and the inversion will lift to 10k ft or better. This...and the overnight timing...will favor higher and more widespread accumulations. Nighttime accumulations will be in the vcnty of 2 to 4 inches away from the lake...with the higher amounts being concentrated across the higher terrain. In regards to lake snows from Lake Ontario...as is usually the case it will take several more hours for a noticeable lake response. There will be a little more shear and slightly `warmer` profile over the lake through early afternoon...but as we progress through the afternoon into the evening hours...a fairly well organized band of lake snow should become focused on Wayne and northern Cayuga counties. As in the case of Lake Erie...the cap will be under 10k ft so am not expecting overly generous amounts of snow for the daylight hours. Amounts will likely range from a coating to an inch or so. As we push through tonight...the cap will lift to more than 10k ft with a fairly solid upstream connection becoming established with Georgian Bay. While this will lead to greater snowfall rates...the band is forecast to oscillate enough to keep the snow from accumulating more than 3 to 5 inches in any one spot from the northeast corner of Wayne County to south central Oswego County. Will maintain the winter storm watch for lake effect snow for this area and allow additional guidance to help in doing additional fine tuning. From this vantage point though...the most significant lake snows in this area should occur from late tonight through Monday With that being said, P&C showing 6”-10”, so we’ll see.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 I seriously think this lake is gonna just spew snow, as conditions are quite favorable with moisture throughout the column. The CF has made it to Eastern NY already while 3 hrs ago it was in WNY. We're waiting on that blob of cold air dropping SEward and entering the upper Great Lakes. The issue is, when that colder air arrives later tonight the winds veer just enough behind that CF to send the band into C-Oswego for the remainder of the event until it finally heads North. So we have to wait and see. I'm still confident we see at least 2-4" throughout the area but I think the double digit snows will head for the Tug. What else is new, lol, and its no surprise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 33 and snowing here. Surfaces are still too warm for any accumulation. As for the coming lake effect, Channel 9's model still has the band setting up over northern Onondaga County tonight with 3 - 7 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 Slushy coating here at 1100' in southern Orchard Park last night. It was 54F when I went to bed at 11pm, and there was already a coating on the grass when I randomly woke up at 3:00. Very impressive front. I think the bulk of the lake effect off Erie will be south of my location, but the snow squall parameter is quite high throughout all of western New York late this afternoon and evening...so as the s/w sweeps over the region, it may carry some streamers/squalls from Lake Huron down across the Niagara Frontier. No big totals in the immediate BUF area, but a good squall or two can always be fun. We'll see how this unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 North monroe Wayne to good later today and tonite. Think 2 to 4 is doable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 its snowing and sticking. I think I may have underestimated this cold shot cause we're close to, if not at, freezing already which wasn't supposed to occur till tonight so accumulations should have no problems now, even during the daylight hours. I'm at 32 with SN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 That band coming off of GB is tremendous! I guess that's the band we'll be hooking up with later on today.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 Is it me or does the GFS want to hammer parts of CNY later next weekend and early next week? Looks like a prolonged LES event on that particular model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 19, 2017 Author Share Posted November 19, 2017 52 minutes ago, phoenixny said: Is it me or does the GFS want to hammer parts of CNY later next weekend and early next week? Looks like a prolonged LES event on that particular model. Yeah looks decent, not an ideal set-up though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 19, 2017 Author Share Posted November 19, 2017 Upstream radar looks good. I think we see some 2-3" per hour stuff once Huron gets involved tomorrow morning over Fulton/Oswego. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 Fulton on East is gonna be split in half with a band in Central Oswego and one that crosses Cayuga/Onondaga and Madison counties. What a Joke, one that can't be made up, lol!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 Yesterday, at this time, we were in the bullseye and now we're gonna get flurries with starry sky's, lol, gotta love it!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 Burlington wtf gives roc 6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 Hrrr looks good for eastern suburbs of roc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 Burlington wtf gives roc 6 inches. Bro, this model is not even used anymore, lol. Don't even know why they still run the horrific thing but let's see how it does. 6 different models showing 6 different solutions, pick one.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 Hrrr looks good for eastern suburbs of rocSo apparently the HRRR has the band South of Oswego County completely so right there it's wrong already as there's already a band established in Central Oswego County as it just needs some aggregation from GB, which will happen this evening, tonight!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 It's starting to light up now so let's see how she plays outSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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