tim123 Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 Largest warning I ever seen now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 Just now, tim123 said: Largest warning I ever seen now. Just now, tim123 said: Largest warning I ever seen now. Winds were just insane here. Power just went out about 45 seconds ago. First time since I’ve moved here we lost power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 Estimated wind gusts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Estimated wind gusts? 50 or so if I had to guess . Winds always gonna seem stronger than they are when the trees still have leaves on them. Once the trees loose there leaves 50 mph is barely noticable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 Would not say insane. But at least some excitement. This is the most boring fall I can remember. Hope it changes come november Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 15, 2017 Author Share Posted October 15, 2017 Yeah that was an intense storm. I'd say 50-55 mph were the max winds. So many leafs just blew off the trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 Line looks to be stronger now. Warning for roc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 Well that certainly was a sharp and intense squall. I have to imagine some people are losing power right now in Monroe. Gusts seemed to be 50-60 for about 1 minute at the peak. Just heard the volunteer sirens going off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 Kroc gusted to 62 during the squall line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 Respectable for october. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 BUF gusted to 51 during the squall. Seen a news report from Niagara County of a bounce house with several kids being picked up and thrown 50 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 15, 2017 Author Share Posted October 15, 2017 1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: BUF gusted to 51 during the squall. Seen a news report from Niagara County of a bounce house with several kids being picked up and thrown 50 feet. Friend of mine in Springville had a tree fall down in his front yard over power lines and he lost all power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 15, 2017 Author Share Posted October 15, 2017 In latest ENSO discussion it looks like once again a Weak La Nina is forecast. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 23 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: In latest ENSO discussion it looks like once again a Weak La Nina is forecast. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf If we can establish a -NAO , that’s when we can have our coldest temperatures statistically. Weak La Niña and - NAO have produced our coldest of outbreaks. On the the flip side if we can’t establish a -NAO and keep a + NAO things may look pretty toasty, not as bad as super El Niño a few years ago but weak Niña’s and + NAO are not a good combo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 16, 2017 Author Share Posted October 16, 2017 3 hours ago, WesterlyWx said: If we can establish a -NAO , that’s when we can have our coldest temperatures statistically. Weak La Niña and - NAO have produced our coldest of outbreaks. On the the flip side if we can’t establish a -NAO and keep a + NAO things may look pretty toasty, not as bad as super El Niño a few years ago but weak Niña’s and + NAO are not a good combo... Yeah, it was looking more like a Moderate La Nina, but the last few weeks have brought it up to a weak one which is good for us. I will be keeping an eye on the Alaskan death vortex in November though. If that gets going again, we are looking at another ratter winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 Lost power for a good 8-10 hours yesterday afternoon/evening, I think top gust at the airport was 66 mph.. Frost advisory up for tomorrow night with temps hovering around freezing, flakes shouldn’t be to far behind.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 18 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Lost power for a good 8-10 hours yesterday afternoon/evening, I think top gust at the airport was 66 mph.. Frost advisory up for tomorrow night with temps hovering around freezing, flakes shouldn’t be to far behind.. Only list power here for 45 minutes. Think the gust were between 50-55mph here. Couple small branches down around, nothing too serious from what I can see. Looking ahead hoping that after this weekend we start to cool down for a while, at least down to average which at this point would feel pretty chilly when we're spending weekends at 75-80. Anyone want to guess when KBUF, KROC, KSYR, KALB, KBGM will see their first flakes? Ill say KBUF:10/26 KROC:10/26 KSYR:10/26 KBGM:10/27 KALB: 11/03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 I'm north of BGM and I think the cold shot 10/27 will be enough to put some flurries in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 16, 2017 Author Share Posted October 16, 2017 Next weekend are the first flakes for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 The squall line yesterday was quite intense here in Western Wayne Cty. Lost power during and still without. We didn't lose power during the big windstorm earlier this year with greater gusts (albeit no foliage). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 12z looks cold with flakes to Tallahassee lmfao ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 16, 2017 Author Share Posted October 16, 2017 2 hours ago, WesterlyWx said: 12z looks cold with flakes to Tallahassee lmfao ! Nice quite cold enough, but pretty cool look on EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southbuffalowx Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 It seems like temperatures are dropping off a lot faster than expected tonight. My weather station is reading 35, and that is ~15 feet off the ground. I noticed kbuf is predicting some light showers forming off the lake later tonight, any chance some of those fall as flakes tonight, given it's already approaching freezing across the area? Or is the lake just too warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 7 hours ago, southbuffalowx said: It seems like temperatures are dropping off a lot faster than expected tonight. My weather station is reading 35, and that is ~15 feet off the ground. I noticed kbuf is predicting some light showers forming off the lake later tonight, any chance some of those fall as flakes tonight, given it's already approaching freezing across the area? Or is the lake just too warm? 33 here with a pretty heavy frost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 17, 2017 Author Share Posted October 17, 2017 Way out there but that clipper at the end of the Euro would be a pretty big LES event if it was a month from now. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=T850&runtime=2017101712&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=400 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 Obviously it’s the GFS at long range but each run keeps lessening any cold shot more and more, and each run is looking like whatever “cold” shot we get is going to be very transient with a huge warm up at the end of the run with 850mb temps of +15c to start November and looking like ridging setting up in the East and troughiness setting up in the West again.... If we make into November with these big warm ups and that stupid one eyed pig over AK you can expect things to not change much for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 Man this is a super boring couple months for weather besides the slightly interesting Nate remnants... looking forward that doesn’t look to change. Wake me up in the middle of November... Yawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 18, 2017 Author Share Posted October 18, 2017 33 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Man this is a super boring couple months for weather besides the slightly interesting Nate remnants... looking forward that doesn’t look to change. Wake me up in the middle of November... Yawn. It was the best severe weather year in my life I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: It was the best severe weather year in my life I think. Wow, really? That squall line this past Sunday was one of the more exciting things to happen all "summer" in regards to Severe Weather in ROC. Seemed average or below average at best. Even nasty looking lines and cells never seemed to amount to much. We just get shadowed so hard on the West Side or Rochester. Really hoping this winter isnt a dud. Last winter started strong and ended decent with that one major dump, but January and February were a complete loss. For any average person, this is an amazing and safe place to live. For a weather enthusiast it's been pretty damn tame. Thank god we got that amazing wind event and storm in March otherwise the whole year has been dull aside from endless rain. Edit - I remember the tornado outbreak now, but it had no impact on KROC. That was pretty damn intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 18, 2017 Author Share Posted October 18, 2017 1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said: Wow, really? That squall line this past Sunday was one of the more exciting things to happen all "summer" in regards to Severe Weather in ROC. Seemed average or below average at best. Even nasty looking lines and cells never seemed to amount to much. We just get shadowed so hard on the West Side or Rochester. Really hoping this winter isnt a dud. Last winter started strong and ended decent with that one major dump, but January and February were a complete loss. For any average person, this is an amazing and safe place to live. For a weather enthusiast it's been pretty damn tame. Thank god we got that amazing wind event and storm in March otherwise the whole year has been dull aside from endless rain. Edit - I remember the tornado outbreak now, but it had no impact on KROC. That was pretty damn intense. WNY had like 10 tornadoes this summer and at least 5 severe thunderstorm warnings. That’s unheard of around here when Lake Erie usually kills all convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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