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Upstate/Eastern New York

BuffaloWeather

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CNY-LES FREAK

CNY-LES FREAK

Posted
Posted

Sounds quite interesting. KBUF, suggesting a definite allowable snowfall to the E-SE of the LO. Then next week sound quite wintry as Well!
A cold cyclonic flow of air will continue across the lower Great Lakes Sunday into Monday. This will set the stage for lake effect snows southeast of the lakes in a northwest flow regime. Over-lake instability certainly looks outstanding with profiles suggesting moderate to extreme instability developing with lake induced CAPES over 500 J/KG and inversion heights very respectable. However, the synoptic moisture fields are far from outstanding with omega displaced below favorable dendritic growth zone combined with less than ideal shear profiles all would suggest this lake effect event likely be a plowable, but not significant snowfall from the southern Tug Hill over to east of Rochester off Lake Ontario and the Chautauqua ridge and Boston Hills off Lake Erie. Lake effect snows will begin to diminish off of both lakes Monday in response to a ridge of high pressure quickly building in across the lower Great Lakes, which will effectively limit synoptic moisture and lower the capping inversion. As the ridge builds in, the steering flow will slowly pivot the weakening snow bands northward toward Buffalo and into the Tug Hill before ending by Monday evening.

Sunshine Tuesday will fade through the day as a cold front nears the region...with the cold front bringing a mix of rain and snow Tuesday night, changing to all snow later Tuesday night and Wednesday as deeper colder air (-10C/850 hPa) builds over the eastern Great Lakes. This colder air will generate lake instability with details of how much moisture and wind direction to still be resolved relating to lake effect snow potential for Wednesday-Thursday. Another frontal boundary will likely dip southward from Canada Friday...maintain chances for snow, especially across Lake Ontario and points eastward which at this time will be closer to the frontal boundary.


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CNY-LES FREAK

CNY-LES FREAK

Posted
Posted

Sounds like and looks like, from a guidance standpoint, that were headed into a stormy Late November into early -mid December. Let's just hope that whatever falls at least lasts until XMAS.
I'd rather it get stormy for a week or 2 then have the pattern reload, then we return to a more stormy pattern the last week of December throughout January, lol, yeah right, imagine that, lol!

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CNY-WXFREAK

CNY-WXFREAK

Posted
Posted

Official NWS Forecast Snow Totals

Me likey likey, and this will come quick in a 4-6 hr period.  Brief warm-up tuesday then another strong CF passes through on Wednesday to switch whatever is falling over to +SN!.  I can see a quick 2-4" in Fulton for the 1st event Sun-Mon.  Enjoy, whoever gets their first snowfall this Sunday!

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DeltaT13

DeltaT13

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Sounds quite interesting. KBUF, suggesting a definite allowable snowfall to the E-SE of the LO. Then next week sound quite wintry as Well!
A cold cyclonic flow of air will continue across the lower Great Lakes Sunday into Monday. This will set the stage for lake effect snows southeast of the lakes in a northwest flow regime. Over-lake instability certainly looks outstanding with profiles suggesting moderate to extreme instability developing with lake induced CAPES over 500 J/KG and inversion heights very respectable. However, the synoptic moisture fields are far from outstanding with omega displaced below favorable dendritic growth zone combined with less than ideal shear profiles all would suggest this lake effect event likely be a plowable, but not significant snowfall from the southern Tug Hill over to east of Rochester off Lake Ontario and the Chautauqua ridge and Boston Hills off Lake Erie. Lake effect snows will begin to diminish off of both lakes Monday in response to a ridge of high pressure quickly building in across the lower Great Lakes, which will effectively limit synoptic moisture and lower the capping inversion. As the ridge builds in, the steering flow will slowly pivot the weakening snow bands northward toward Buffalo and into the Tug Hill before ending by Monday evening.

Sunshine Tuesday will fade through the day as a cold front nears the region...with the cold front bringing a mix of rain and snow Tuesday night, changing to all snow later Tuesday night and Wednesday as deeper colder air (-10C/850 hPa) builds over the eastern Great Lakes. This colder air will generate lake instability with details of how much moisture and wind direction to still be resolved relating to lake effect snow potential for Wednesday-Thursday. Another frontal boundary will likely dip southward from Canada Friday...maintain chances for snow, especially across Lake Ontario and points eastward which at this time will be closer to the frontal boundary.


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Nice write up.  It is relatively active pattern that we look to be in for the next few weeks.  The cold hits are fast and transient but certainly a better start than some years (specifically 2015/2016).   Kind of intrigued by that large cut off low with deep tropical moisture over the southeast out near 6 days.  A little better phasing and that would be a sizeable system.  Lots to watch means happy weather nerds, excited to be back.  

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CNY-WXFREAK

CNY-WXFREAK

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Nice write up.  It is relatively active pattern that we look to be in for the next few weeks.  The cold hits are fast and transient but certainly a better start than some years (specifically 2015/2016).   Kind of intrigued by that large cut off low with deep tropical moisture over the southeast out near 6 days.  A little better phasing and that would be a sizeable system.  Lots to watch means happy weather nerds, excited to be back.  

I think that's associated with Tropical development in the So. Caribbean.

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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
Posted

 

Syracuse, N.Y. -- You have one day to get that snow blower running.

The National Weather Service is now forecasting totals of 6 to 8 inches of l ake effect snow in areas southeast of lakes Erie and Ontario, including Syracuse, Sunday night into Monday.

The snow will likely start off light and then ramp up Sunday afternoon and Monday morning as the cold front blows through.

"Lake effect snow becomes better organized by late Sunday continuing into Monday, with upwards of 6 to 8 inches expected," the weather service said. "Snowfall rates may be 1 to 2 inches per hour at times."

The hardest-hit regions are likely to be Oswego, Onondaga and Madison counties in Central New York; and Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties in Western New York.

"Snow and blowing snow will accumulate quickly and cause potentially hazardous travel conditions late Sunday night into Monday morning," the weather service said.

Hazardous weather alerts are in place across nearly all of Upstate for the winds and snow

 

https://articles.newyorkupstate.com/weather/2017/11/6_to_8_inches_of_snow_possible_in_upstate_ny_lake_effect_areas.amp

 

 

F865C7D9-57B0-4C9F-B048-87073C4E4A81.jpeg

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CNY-LES FREAK

CNY-LES FREAK

Posted
Posted
I'm surprised they haven't issued any watches or advisories yet.

I don't think Les watches and warnings are being used anymore. I think they are now blending them in with advisories and warnings. I would imagine this first event of the season will be an advisory but we'll see what they issue. Nothing as of right now.

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phoenixny

phoenixny

Posted
Posted 
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
204 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

NYZ009-018-036-037-191915-
/O.NEW.KBGM.WS.A.0005.171119T2200Z-171121T0000Z/
Northern Oneida-Onondaga-Madison-Southern Oneida-
Including the cities of Boonville, Syracuse, Hamilton, Oneida,
Rome, and Utica
204 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
TO MONDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Plan on difficult travel
  conditions, including the morning commute on Monday. Total snow
  accumulations of 5 to 8 inches, with localized amounts up to 10
  inches, possible. Heaviest snow expected in far northern
  Onondaga County, and northwest Oneida county.

* WHERE...Northern Oneida, Onondaga, Madison and Southern Oneida
  Counties.

* WHEN...From late Sunday afternoon until late Monday afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 30 mph will cause
  areas of blowing and drifting snow especially Sunday night and
  early Monday morning. Temperatures will range mainly in the 20s
  and lower 30s.

 

Gotta get used to the WSW instead of LESW. Good luck everybody in the watch area.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

Posted
  • Author
Posted
30 minutes ago, phoenixny said: 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
204 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

NYZ009-018-036-037-191915-
/O.NEW.KBGM.WS.A.0005.171119T2200Z-171121T0000Z/
Northern Oneida-Onondaga-Madison-Southern Oneida-
Including the cities of Boonville, Syracuse, Hamilton, Oneida,
Rome, and Utica
204 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
TO MONDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Plan on difficult travel
  conditions, including the morning commute on Monday. Total snow
  accumulations of 5 to 8 inches, with localized amounts up to 10
  inches, possible. Heaviest snow expected in far northern
  Onondaga County, and northwest Oneida county.

* WHERE...Northern Oneida, Onondaga, Madison and Southern Oneida
  Counties.

* WHEN...From late Sunday afternoon until late Monday afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 30 mph will cause
  areas of blowing and drifting snow especially Sunday night and
  early Monday morning. Temperatures will range mainly in the 20s
  and lower 30s.

 

Gotta get used to the WSW instead of LESW. Good luck everybody in the watch area.

I don’t think I’ll ever get used to winter storm watches lol. Good luck to all! 

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Syrmax

Syrmax

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Hey Brian, were ground zero for this potential. Feels good to get the first of the season as usually its either the Tug or Nada, lol!

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Does look promising...reasonably confident we'll get a solid 6"...same timeframe as last years November storm, though less potent this time.  Snowblower is ready!

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CNY-LES FREAK

CNY-LES FREAK

Posted
Posted
Does look promising...reasonably confident we'll get a solid 6"...same timeframe as last years November storm, though less potent this time.  Snowblower is ready!

If she goes quasi stationary, we'll hit double digits but I'm always sceptical of bands forecasted 24hr in advance to only hit 5 miles to our North or South, for that matter. Like you said though, it does look promising.

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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
Posted

Razor thin that’s for sure lol

  

Northwest winds will also bring lake effect snow southeast of the
lake, with snows focused upon Wayne to Oswego counties. There will
likely be minor upslope lake effect snows on the southern Tug Hill.
Over the longer fetch of the lake, there will likely be a more
concentrated area of snow, with a narrow band of snow setting up
over Oswego County. Temperatures aloft will be a bit colder over
Lake Ontario, dipping to about -11/-12C which will produce extreme
lake instability. The narrow band of snow over Lake Ontario will
increase in strength through the night, and with potential for an
upstream connection to Georgian Bay this band of snow has the
potential to produce snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour late
Sunday night and into Monday morning. Behind the passage of a 500
hPa shortwave trough, the band of snow may drop towards Wayne and
northern Cayuga Counties for a brief time mid-overnight Sunday night
before centering back upon far northern Cayuga and across western
and central Oswego counties in the pre-dawn hours Monday. It is at
this time and location that we expect the most intense part of the
snow band, and with the snow band likely to remain over the same
areas for a 4-8 hour window...warning criteria snowfall amounts are
possible. As such a Winter Storm Watch (for Lake Effect Snow) has
been issued for these two counties of northern Cayuga and Oswego
Counties

7CBB96A9-4FED-4347-A96F-95A7E1DEA363.png

37F0C8FF-EA0D-4806-87CF-0826E3FEC066.png

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