BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2017 Author Share Posted November 18, 2017 Winds change fast with this event, but feel like you should get a decent 4-6 hour window of Moderate Lake effect wolfie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2017 Author Share Posted November 18, 2017 When GFS shows a band like this in its low res comparison to NAM and WRF models you know the rates will be 1-2" per hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 Sounds quite interesting. KBUF, suggesting a definite allowable snowfall to the E-SE of the LO. Then next week sound quite wintry as Well!A cold cyclonic flow of air will continue across the lower Great Lakes Sunday into Monday. This will set the stage for lake effect snows southeast of the lakes in a northwest flow regime. Over-lake instability certainly looks outstanding with profiles suggesting moderate to extreme instability developing with lake induced CAPES over 500 J/KG and inversion heights very respectable. However, the synoptic moisture fields are far from outstanding with omega displaced below favorable dendritic growth zone combined with less than ideal shear profiles all would suggest this lake effect event likely be a plowable, but not significant snowfall from the southern Tug Hill over to east of Rochester off Lake Ontario and the Chautauqua ridge and Boston Hills off Lake Erie. Lake effect snows will begin to diminish off of both lakes Monday in response to a ridge of high pressure quickly building in across the lower Great Lakes, which will effectively limit synoptic moisture and lower the capping inversion. As the ridge builds in, the steering flow will slowly pivot the weakening snow bands northward toward Buffalo and into the Tug Hill before ending by Monday evening. Sunshine Tuesday will fade through the day as a cold front nears the region...with the cold front bringing a mix of rain and snow Tuesday night, changing to all snow later Tuesday night and Wednesday as deeper colder air (-10C/850 hPa) builds over the eastern Great Lakes. This colder air will generate lake instability with details of how much moisture and wind direction to still be resolved relating to lake effect snow potential for Wednesday-Thursday. Another frontal boundary will likely dip southward from Canada Friday...maintain chances for snow, especially across Lake Ontario and points eastward which at this time will be closer to the frontal boundary. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 Sounds like and looks like, from a guidance standpoint, that were headed into a stormy Late November into early -mid December. Let's just hope that whatever falls at least lasts until XMAS.I'd rather it get stormy for a week or 2 then have the pattern reload, then we return to a more stormy pattern the last week of December throughout January, lol, yeah right, imagine that, lol!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 Me likey likey, and this will come quick in a 4-6 hr period. Brief warm-up tuesday then another strong CF passes through on Wednesday to switch whatever is falling over to +SN!. I can see a quick 2-4" in Fulton for the 1st event Sun-Mon. Enjoy, whoever gets their first snowfall this Sunday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 9 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Sounds quite interesting. KBUF, suggesting a definite allowable snowfall to the E-SE of the LO. Then next week sound quite wintry as Well! A cold cyclonic flow of air will continue across the lower Great Lakes Sunday into Monday. This will set the stage for lake effect snows southeast of the lakes in a northwest flow regime. Over-lake instability certainly looks outstanding with profiles suggesting moderate to extreme instability developing with lake induced CAPES over 500 J/KG and inversion heights very respectable. However, the synoptic moisture fields are far from outstanding with omega displaced below favorable dendritic growth zone combined with less than ideal shear profiles all would suggest this lake effect event likely be a plowable, but not significant snowfall from the southern Tug Hill over to east of Rochester off Lake Ontario and the Chautauqua ridge and Boston Hills off Lake Erie. Lake effect snows will begin to diminish off of both lakes Monday in response to a ridge of high pressure quickly building in across the lower Great Lakes, which will effectively limit synoptic moisture and lower the capping inversion. As the ridge builds in, the steering flow will slowly pivot the weakening snow bands northward toward Buffalo and into the Tug Hill before ending by Monday evening. Sunshine Tuesday will fade through the day as a cold front nears the region...with the cold front bringing a mix of rain and snow Tuesday night, changing to all snow later Tuesday night and Wednesday as deeper colder air (-10C/850 hPa) builds over the eastern Great Lakes. This colder air will generate lake instability with details of how much moisture and wind direction to still be resolved relating to lake effect snow potential for Wednesday-Thursday. Another frontal boundary will likely dip southward from Canada Friday...maintain chances for snow, especially across Lake Ontario and points eastward which at this time will be closer to the frontal boundary. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Nice write up. It is relatively active pattern that we look to be in for the next few weeks. The cold hits are fast and transient but certainly a better start than some years (specifically 2015/2016). Kind of intrigued by that large cut off low with deep tropical moisture over the southeast out near 6 days. A little better phasing and that would be a sizeable system. Lots to watch means happy weather nerds, excited to be back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 5 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Nice write up. It is relatively active pattern that we look to be in for the next few weeks. The cold hits are fast and transient but certainly a better start than some years (specifically 2015/2016). Kind of intrigued by that large cut off low with deep tropical moisture over the southeast out near 6 days. A little better phasing and that would be a sizeable system. Lots to watch means happy weather nerds, excited to be back. I think that's associated with Tropical development in the So. Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 Haha gotta love the 3k nam, really goes to town Sunday night in Oswego county, to bad it goes to town a lot lol Obviously taken it with a grain of salt for now..Interested to see other SR models as we get closer.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 Much more realistic looking, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 Syracuse, N.Y. -- You have one day to get that snow blower running. The National Weather Service is now forecasting totals of 6 to 8 inches of l ake effect snow in areas southeast of lakes Erie and Ontario, including Syracuse, Sunday night into Monday. The snow will likely start off light and then ramp up Sunday afternoon and Monday morning as the cold front blows through. "Lake effect snow becomes better organized by late Sunday continuing into Monday, with upwards of 6 to 8 inches expected," the weather service said. "Snowfall rates may be 1 to 2 inches per hour at times." The hardest-hit regions are likely to be Oswego, Onondaga and Madison counties in Central New York; and Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties in Western New York. "Snow and blowing snow will accumulate quickly and cause potentially hazardous travel conditions late Sunday night into Monday morning," the weather service said. Hazardous weather alerts are in place across nearly all of Upstate for the winds and snow https://articles.newyorkupstate.com/weather/2017/11/6_to_8_inches_of_snow_possible_in_upstate_ny_lake_effect_areas.amp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stanleyjenkins Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 I'm surprised they haven't issued any watches or advisories yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 I'm surprised they haven't issued any watches or advisories yet.I don't think Les watches and warnings are being used anymore. I think they are now blending them in with advisories and warnings. I would imagine this first event of the season will be an advisory but we'll see what they issue. Nothing as of right now. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 Hey rich not looking like your warm november is working out lol. -3.8f on the month with colder temps continiing through the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2017 Author Share Posted November 18, 2017 27 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Hey rich not looking like your warm november is working out lol. -3.8f on the month with colder temps continiing through the end. Yeah not looking good haha. Don’t weak Nina’s tend to have warm November’s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Binghamton NY 204 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017 NYZ009-018-036-037-191915- /O.NEW.KBGM.WS.A.0005.171119T2200Z-171121T0000Z/ Northern Oneida-Onondaga-Madison-Southern Oneida- Including the cities of Boonville, Syracuse, Hamilton, Oneida, Rome, and Utica 204 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO MONDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Plan on difficult travel conditions, including the morning commute on Monday. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8 inches, with localized amounts up to 10 inches, possible. Heaviest snow expected in far northern Onondaga County, and northwest Oneida county. * WHERE...Northern Oneida, Onondaga, Madison and Southern Oneida Counties. * WHEN...From late Sunday afternoon until late Monday afternoon. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 30 mph will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow especially Sunday night and early Monday morning. Temperatures will range mainly in the 20s and lower 30s. Gotta get used to the WSW instead of LESW. Good luck everybody in the watch area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 Hey Brian, were ground zero for this potential. Feels good to get the first of the season as usually its either the Tug or Nada, lol!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2017 Author Share Posted November 18, 2017 30 minutes ago, phoenixny said: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Binghamton NY 204 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017 NYZ009-018-036-037-191915- /O.NEW.KBGM.WS.A.0005.171119T2200Z-171121T0000Z/ Northern Oneida-Onondaga-Madison-Southern Oneida- Including the cities of Boonville, Syracuse, Hamilton, Oneida, Rome, and Utica 204 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO MONDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Plan on difficult travel conditions, including the morning commute on Monday. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8 inches, with localized amounts up to 10 inches, possible. Heaviest snow expected in far northern Onondaga County, and northwest Oneida county. * WHERE...Northern Oneida, Onondaga, Madison and Southern Oneida Counties. * WHEN...From late Sunday afternoon until late Monday afternoon. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 30 mph will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow especially Sunday night and early Monday morning. Temperatures will range mainly in the 20s and lower 30s. Gotta get used to the WSW instead of LESW. Good luck everybody in the watch area. I don’t think I’ll ever get used to winter storm watches lol. Good luck to all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 I don't see warnings out of this set-up but I guess we'll seeSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 30 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Hey Brian, were ground zero for this potential. Feels good to get the first of the season as usually its either the Tug or Nada, lol! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Does look promising...reasonably confident we'll get a solid 6"...same timeframe as last years November storm, though less potent this time. Snowblower is ready! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 Does look promising...reasonably confident we'll get a solid 6"...same timeframe as last years November storm, though less potent this time. Snowblower is ready!If she goes quasi stationary, we'll hit double digits but I'm always sceptical of bands forecasted 24hr in advance to only hit 5 miles to our North or South, for that matter. Like you said though, it does look promising. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 I don't know if these watches, advisories or warnings are gonna work, and if so, expect to see quite a bit of pink in our immediate CWA, lol, as there will be a plethora of warnings this yr.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 I got to say kbgm sounds quite optimistic about this event and saying it's going to be a definite plowable 1st les event with lollipops of 12 to 15 in spotsSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah not looking good haha. Don’t weak Nina’s tend to have warm November’s? There's no historical signal for that. Composite is pretty neutral and no link between Nino 3.4 and Nov temps in western ny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 Razor thin that’s for sure lol Northwest winds will also bring lake effect snow southeast of the lake, with snows focused upon Wayne to Oswego counties. There will likely be minor upslope lake effect snows on the southern Tug Hill. Over the longer fetch of the lake, there will likely be a more concentrated area of snow, with a narrow band of snow setting up over Oswego County. Temperatures aloft will be a bit colder over Lake Ontario, dipping to about -11/-12C which will produce extreme lake instability. The narrow band of snow over Lake Ontario will increase in strength through the night, and with potential for an upstream connection to Georgian Bay this band of snow has the potential to produce snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour late Sunday night and into Monday morning. Behind the passage of a 500 hPa shortwave trough, the band of snow may drop towards Wayne and northern Cayuga Counties for a brief time mid-overnight Sunday night before centering back upon far northern Cayuga and across western and central Oswego counties in the pre-dawn hours Monday. It is at this time and location that we expect the most intense part of the snow band, and with the snow band likely to remain over the same areas for a 4-8 hour window...warning criteria snowfall amounts are possible. As such a Winter Storm Watch (for Lake Effect Snow) has been issued for these two counties of northern Cayuga and Oswego Counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stanleyjenkins Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 Anyone care to guess KSYR's total snow accumulation through Monday night? I'm going to say 4.4". Winner gets bragging rights until the next lake effect event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 She's gonna be a close call thats for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 Ksyr 6.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 That’s a big uptick in accumulation on the rgem, maybe 3k nam not so crazy after all lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 Warnings for No Cayuga and Oswego and Advisories for Onondaga Madison and Oneida counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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