Upstate/Eastern New York

[BuffaloWeather]

Yeah not much compares to the blizzard of 93 and 96, even with lake effect standards. The amount of winds that came with those storms was just unreal. 

[Syrmax]

Ty - I remember the Xmas 2002 snowstorm. I was living near Albany at the time and we received about 22"...was spectacular as it started in the morning.  Side note...about 8 days later a 2nd blockbuster 24" snowstorm hit the cap district and ENY.  Only time I've ever experienced back to back legitimate major snowstorms in close time proximity.  As i also recall it was mild for a few days in between those storms so a lot of the Xmas storm had melted/compacted before the next one hit.

[BuffaloWeather]

I want to see another blizzard of 77 or 85 here in WNY. Those both had very high winds which I haven't seen with a lake effect storm in quite sometime. 

[BuffaloWeather]

I'm sure most in Syracuse the storm of 1993 was the best storm of their generation. 43" of synoptic snow in Syracuse is just insanity. 

[Syrmax]

1993 March Blizzard is the benchmark storm for most.  I was living in SE CT at the time, about 10 miles from the Sound.  Unfortunately, rather than head to my folks place near BGM to witness ~30", I stayed in the SECT snowhole to experience 4" of snow followed by sleet, rain and dryslot. Oh yeah, it was also windy.   My GF's sister' place in West Hartford had about 20", only about 30 miles NW. 

[DeltaT13]

23 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I want to see another blizzard of 77 or 85 here in WNY. Those both had very high winds which I haven't seen with a lake effect storm in quite sometime. 

I can't quite remember the event a few years back when Buffalo was under blizzard warnings for a couple days.  Winds were moderately strong for several days and visibility was virtually zero. I think it may have been early January and it was mostly lake effect driven.  That was a pretty intense setup for you guys.  

[BuffaloWeather]

Everyone knows 1977 was just pure insanity here with drifts over the city over lightposts and bridges. I doubt something like that ever happens again. But 1985 is many times forgotten winds 50-60 mph with 2-3'+ of snow across most of Erie County. Unconfirmed reports up to 47" of snow, but winds must have made it difficult to measure. 

[BuffaloWeather]

5 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

I can't quite remember the event a few years back when Buffalo was under blizzard warnings for a couple days.  Winds were moderately strong for several days and visibility was virtually zero. I think it may have been early January and it was mostly lake effect driven.  That was a pretty intense setup for you guys.  

I believe that was the 2013-2014 year where Buffalo had 2 blizzard warnings issued. The snowfall wasn't as impressive as the winds and temperatures were. Lake Erie was in the process of freezing over due to extremely cold temps the preceding weeks. 

http://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2013-2014&event=G

[WNash]

I lived in Boston in 1993 and NYC in 1996. Impressive storms, but being in a high intensity lake effect band is more overwhelming to the senses, and being in a multi-day lake effect set-up is more disruptive to your life than a nor’easter that last half a day at most and melts out within a week (though the NYC pack in 1996 had more longevity than most).

What is remarkable about the coastal winter storms is the widespread nature of the coverage. LES is generally pretty limited in coverage despite the incredible intensity.

[BuffaloWeather]

8 minutes ago, WNash said:

I lived in Boston in 1993 and NYC in 1996. Impressive storms, but being in a high intensity lake effect band is more overwhelming to the senses, and being in a multi-day lake effect set-up is more disruptive to your life than a nor’easter that last half a day at most and melts out within a week (though the NYC pack in 1996 had more longevity than most).

What is remarkable about the coastal winter storms is the widespread nature of the coverage. LES is generally pretty limited in coverage despite the incredible intensity.

Yeah that's what most say that experienced both. Nothing really compares to events like 77, 85, 95, 01, 06, 14.  Devin was in Rhode Island for 2 years and came back pretty quick because he missed the lake effect.

[BuffaloWeather]

I'll say one thing, GFS is persistant still with bringing the cold air down. Maybe we can get a blend between the Euro and GFS. That is some crazy cold in the plains next week. 

[CNY_WX]

I'm older than you guys and to me the Blizzard of 66 is the granddaddy of them all, probably the storm that really got me interested in weather.  I was in 6th grade living in the Mohawk Valley (Little Falls) and we didn't have school for a week. I know snow removal has improved over the years but many living in the country were snowed in for that entire period.  When roads were plowed they would almost immediately drift back in.   The Thruway was closed and many were stranded - I believe an elderly couple were found dead in their car. Many sought refuge at the rest area just outside of Little Falls. Snowmobiles were relatively new and it was one of the the first times they were used to bring relief to those stranded. Almost 52 years later the Blizzard of 93 is the only storm to compare it to. Little Falls got almost 4 feet in the Xmas 2002 storm but by that time I was living here in Brewerton. 

[dutch]

7 hours ago, CNY_WX said:

I'm older than you guys and to me the Blizzard of 66 is the granddaddy of them all, probably the storm that really got me interested in weather.  I was in 6th grade living in the Mohawk Valley (Little Falls) and we didn't have school for a week. I know snow removal has improved over the years but many living in the country were snowed in for that entire period.  When roads were plowed they would almost immediately drift back in.   The Thruway was closed and many were stranded - I believe an elderly couple were found dead in their car. Many sought refuge at the rest area just outside of Little Falls. Snowmobiles were relatively new and it was one of the the first times they were used to bring relief to those stranded. Almost 52 years later the Blizzard of 93 is the only storm to compare it to. Little Falls got almost 4 feet in the Xmas 2002 storm but by that time I was living here in Brewerton. 

in 66 i was in Mohawk!  would have been about 4 at the time,  remember sliding off our front porch roof onto the snowbanks in

the front yard.

in the 2002 xmas storm, we were living in madison county, but traveled to little falls for christmas day with wife's (at the time) family,

then ended up staying at my mother's house in mohawk for the night as it was hammering pretty good...

93 was epic here in madison county, i remember hearing the old town V plow trying to get up the road the next

day, he had to ram ahead a few feet, back up, and hit it again. 

 

 

[phoenixny]

9 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

This weekend's Cutter doesn't even bring enough cold air down on it's NW side to get snow and it's a pretty substantial storm system, pressure wise, but there will be wind and a lot of it! Was looking forward to our first substantial les event and a beauty at that but that is now a thing of the past nut Bastardi keeps showi g the cold the next to weeks and beyond. It's funny as when the Goofus agrees with his forecast he doesn't bash it, but God forbid it's against his forecast, lol. He hasn't even mentioned the differences between both globals. Forget about the Canadian, UKMet and Brazilian.

Listen, it's November and to be honest, I'd rather have normal conditions as opposed to below normal conditions with snow. The last few yrs it seems like every time we have an early start to the season, it warms up just in time for the holidays. I think I've seen more white Turkey days, than i have on Xmas. Even 2014-15, I believe it warmed up just in time for Christmas, but then went into the tank for quite a while. My favorite Winter, no doubt, to date and a close second is 02-03.

10.1" Fell on Christmas day on 2002-03 and that was just magical. An incredible yr from start to finish, even with the brief warm-up. It snowed every day, a trace or more, the whole month of January, and I'm NOT exaggerating at all as records can be looked at. Perhaps I will show that January. Don't know if anyone else remembers It, but I sure do, lol.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
 

02-03 was the winter from hell. Measured 229" of snow in Phoenix. The most I have ever witnessed and measured in my 25 years here. My gutters fall down, water leaked into my house in almost all rooms from ice damning. I think I stopped measuring faithfully not long after that. Screw it, Let's do it again!

[CNY-LES FREAK]

02-03 was the winter from hell. Measured 229" of snow in Phoenix. The most I have ever witnessed and measured in my 25 years here. My gutters fall down, water leaked into my house in almost all rooms from ice damning. I think I stopped measuring faithfully not long after that. Screw it, Let's do it again!

You can only wish those kinds of Winters bec ause they are so few and far between.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

[BuffaloWeather]

Euro says what cold

[BuffaloWeather]

After that warm up I do like very end of Nov into early Dec.

[Thinksnow18]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Euro says what cold

I think as much as the GFS is overdone on the cold that is overdone on the warm side, in fact from the mid Atlantic side the EPS actually backs off on the Canada torch after next week. Time will tell. Still I also don't see any predicted days of consecutive above normal warmth...alot of ups and downs with neither being dominant 

[BuffaloWeather]

48 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I think as much as the GFS is overdone on the cold that is overdone on the warm side, in fact from the mid Atlantic side the EPS actually backs off on the Canada torch after next week. Time will tell. Still I also don't see any predicted days of consecutive above normal warmth...alot of ups and downs with neither being dominant 

Either way I see less then 6" of snow the next 2 weeks for anywhere in New York. Best chances for that would be Tug Hill and highest hill tops in SW NYS. The colder than normal pattern with no snow is taking away from Eries LES potential pretty quickly. If it's not going to snow, I would rather have 60 and sun then 40 and cloudy. 

[Thinksnow18]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Either way I see less then 6" of snow the next 2 weeks for anywhere in New York. Best chances for that would be Tug Hill and highest hill tops in SW NYS. The colder than normal pattern with no snow is taking away from Eries LES potential pretty quickly. If it's not going to snow, I would rather have 60 and sun then 40 and cloudy. 

Well being so early in the snow season I'm not concerned,  yet. I think of this a battle of the warm and cold where as we we get to December climo is in our favor more...anything now is gravy and unexpected. 

[BuffaloWeather]

4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Well being so early in the snow season I'm not concerned,  yet. I think of this a battle of the warm and cold where as we we get to December climo is in our favor more...anything now is gravy and unexpected. 

Maybe in most locations, but Buffalo can do very well in November. Yearly average has to be 10'+ or around that? I'm not concerned either, but would like to see some improvement in the current Pacific set-up as we get into late Nov to set the pathway for a decent December Lake Effect wise. The PV is on the other side of the globe with no delivery method for the next few weeks at least. 

http://www.weather.gov/buf/BuffaloSnow

[BuffaloWeather]

At least we have Buffalo News on our side.

http://buffalonews.com/2017/11/16/polar-vortex-to-bring-extended-period-of-severe-winter-weather-in-2017-18/

[Thinksnow18]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

At least we have Buffalo News on our side.

http://buffalonews.com/2017/11/16/polar-vortex-to-bring-extended-period-of-severe-winter-weather-in-2017-18/

If it's in the buffalo news it must be right!!! Lol... we average at the airport (KBUF) about 7.4" for November...we jumped to 27.7" for our snowiest month in December...now a few years  back whilst I was on the wivb weather blog, Don Paul the lead met at the time, showed the new 30 year climo for November was down to 7.4" from a bit over 11"...in the early 2000'stages and 1990's we had our share of early season LES events but they have become much more infrequent as the century has gone on. At least seeing temps this November, which are much more normal than last November which was a torch, gives me hope that the fire hose pac jet won't be as prevalent this year and to this point it hasn't. That doesn't mean things can't change however there are signs the package is beginning a change by the beginning of December that would favor a PNA. I am definitely cautiousabout the forecast but at the same time more optimistic than last year. 

[BuffaloWeather]

1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

If it's in the buffalo news it must be right!!! Lol... we average at the airport (KBUF) about 7.4" for November...we jumped to 27.7" for our snowiest month in December...now a few years  back whilst I was on the wivb weather blog, Don Paul the lead met at the time, showed the new 30 year climo for November was down to 7.4" from a bit over 11"...in the early 2000'stages and 1990's we had our share of early season LES events but they have become much more infrequent as the century has gone on. At least seeing temps this November, which are much more normal than last November which was a torch, gives me hope that the fire hose pac jet won't be as prevalent this year and to this point it hasn't. That doesn't mean things can't change however there are signs the package is beginning a change by the beginning of December that would favor a PNA. I am definitely cautiousabout the forecast but at the same time more optimistic than last year. 

Yeah I agree with all of this, I enjoy the tracking just as much as the events. We've had a decent discussion over on the Great lakes forum last few hours about lake effect. Got me really excited for this season. Was looking at some pictures and came across this one from Redfield, insanity. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Happy Anniversary of Snowvember. 3 years ago today. 

 

[Thinksnow18]

7 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Happy Anniversary of Snowvember. 3 years ago today. 

 

That storm was the absolute biggest tease to me! At that time we lived in Cheektowaga closer to the buffalo border and we received about 16" of snow while 1 mile to the south there was 83"...I couldn't believe I missed seeing such an epic event by that little bit. 

[wolfie09]

Global’s continue flip flopping on where max precipitation is, not that it matters, looks like an (semi) early season light to moderate event incoming ..Enjoy 

0z Gfs top, 6z bottom..

[wolfie09]

Kbuf 

 

 

The base of a fairly deep longwave trough will be centered just to
the east of our forecast area Sunday and Sunday night. This will
keep a cyclonic flow of cold air over the lakes with little
variation in steering flow. While this would normally be favorable
for significant snowfall downwind of the lakes...there will not be
an abundance of synoptic moisture to help support the lake response.
The persistent 300 flow though will allow for some priming from
upstream lakes...so its not out of the question that a plowable
snowfall could take place. This would especially be the case over
Oswego County.

As for some specifics...
Off Lake Erie...a 320 flow early on Sunday will back to around
300 degrees during the midday and afternoon while the limiting cap
will rise to around 10k ft. This will be accompanied by a short
lived upstream connection to lake Huron...with the most favorable
lake snow conditions forecast to come between 18z Sunday and
06z Sunday night. Several inches of snow are anticipated...but
nothing significant. As the low level flow starts to back to 290
later Sunday night...the upstream connection will be lost and
snowfall rates will suffer accordingly. Only minimal snow
accumulations are then expected for the second half of Sunday
night and Monday when warming aloft will eventually bring an end
to the lake response.

Meanwhile off Lake Ontario...organized lake effect snow may take
several hours to get going on Sunday as the cold air will need time
to deepen. Initially...a 300 flow will direct a lake response
across Oswego County with snowfall rates of a half inch or so
per hour within the developing band. As we push into Sunday
night though...a backing of the winds aloft will establish an
upstream connection to Georgian Bay. This will encourage more
significant snowfall rates within a well established band that
will primarily stretch across northern Wayne and Cayuga Counties
to southern Oswego County. It will be from Sunday night into
the first half of Monday that will be the most likely time frame
when winter headlines for lake effect snow would be needed. As
we progress through he day Monday...winds will back a little
during the course of the day...breaking the upstream connection
to Georgian Bay while also allowing accumulating snows to fall
over a new area

[Thinksnow18]

I tried to copy the 240 HR of the 00z euro model...shows positive heights out west and what looks like some deep troughiness in the east...the EPS actually is about a day or 2 earlier but is close...interesting if it holds

www.tro.txt

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

9 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Happy Anniversary of Snowvember. 3 years ago today. 

 

Just epic!  Still don't know how much snow I actually had as I was not able to make it to my board in the backyard.  Midnight had 2 inches... 7am had 33 inches... After that I wasn't able to step foot back there for 2 more days.  Took a snow depth of 56" in the middle of my street on day 2 so had to be in the 60-70" range.  First time I've ever not made it in to work due to the weather.