Syrmax Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Has KBOS put a Blizzard Watch up yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 11, 2017 Author Share Posted November 11, 2017 Highs from the 18th-20th are in the upper 30s, lows in the low 30s. Daytime LER, nighttime LES? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 11, 2017 Author Share Posted November 11, 2017 That system seems like it wants to redevelop off the coast which doesn't allow the coldest air to flow across the lakes. If it went right straight up into Canada with the trailing front we would definitely be looking at a good LES event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 11, 2017 Author Share Posted November 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Has KBOS put a Blizzard Watch up yet? Nah, only a snow squall watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 11, 2017 Author Share Posted November 11, 2017 Long range analogs: >2" of snow probabilities Day: 6-8 Day: 9-11 Day: 12-14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 15 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I still don't see any arctic air coming into the lakes though. Nick can you explain how it's possible to get a significant lake effect event with those marginal temps? Its -8 to -10 at 850 on both the gfs and euro. Is that not cold enough? Its a week out. I just mentioned the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 Those are cold enough for sure. Remember its November not end of january Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 1 hour ago, OSUmetstud said: Its -8 to -10 at 850 on both the gfs and euro. Is that not cold enough? Its a week out. I just mentioned the potential. Is it true out best lake effect events come when 850 temps are around there? Once it gets too cold doesn't it make it harder to produce snow as the colder the air the less moisture it can hold or am I way off? I just feel like Dec 2010 and Nov 2014 were both with 850s not super cold but just cold enough with good synoptic moisture and lift. Even if it doesn't materialize at least it doesn't look like it's going to be sustained warmth and above average which is always nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 15 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Is it true out best lake effect events come when 850 temps are around there? Once it gets too cold doesn't it make it harder to produce snow as the colder the air the less moisture it can hold or am I way off? I just feel like Dec 2010 and Nov 2014 were both with 850s not super cold but just cold enough with good synoptic moisture and lift. Even if it doesn't materialize at least it doesn't look like it's going to be sustained warmth and above average which is always nice. Plus I'm certain the models are still sorting out the details. 12z almost has lp with transfer to the coast which COULD keep enough "warm" air back west to be marginal...thanksgiving still looks like our best potential as arctic air seems to be wrapped in a little more than next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 40 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Is it true out best lake effect events come when 850 temps are around there? Once it gets too cold doesn't it make it harder to produce snow as the colder the air the less moisture it can hold or am I way off? I just feel like Dec 2010 and Nov 2014 were both with 850s not super cold but just cold enough with good synoptic moisture and lift. Even if it doesn't materialize at least it doesn't look like it's going to be sustained warmth and above average which is always nice. No. It could definitely be colder. 850s were like -16 in Nov 2014 if I'm not mistaken. It was very cold. Nov. 2000 was more like -9 to -11...Dec. 1995 was like -20 and Dec. 2001 was -15. Feb. 2007 was -21 to -25. October 06 was about -6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 11, 2017 Author Share Posted November 11, 2017 7 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: No. It could definitely be colder. 850s were like -16 in Nov 2014 if I'm not mistaken. It was very cold. Nov. 2000 was more like -9 to -11...Dec. 1995 was like -20 and Dec. 2001 was -15. Feb. 2007 was -21 to -25. October 06 was about -6. I changed browsers and lost some of my saved websites. Do you have anything that shows detailed output of temps throughout atmosphere from GFS and Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 Euro shows -10 to -12 850s west wind going to nw on days 9 and 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 11, 2017 Author Share Posted November 11, 2017 Just now, tim123 said: Euro shows -10 to -12 850s west wind going to be days 9 and 10. Yeah Euro is colder than GFS. Also looks to be short lived as the conus heats up in most guidance after that, but that's to far out right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 11, 2017 Author Share Posted November 11, 2017 Still don't like the look long term for good cold. No way to deliver it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 Euro much more reliable long term. Remember all the indices are changing more favorable. Will take a week of model runs to sort it out. But I like the pattern we are goin into. Don't need artic air for good snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 Remember we can still be above normal in winter and get alot of snow. Mainly because of cloud cover keeping min temps up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 Joe bastardi has a correlation between active Atlantic hurricane season and lower activity in west Pac. His analogs goin into end of November and December are 1950 1995 2005 2010 1993 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 Daytime high of 30F here. Impressive for this time in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 Gfs been goin back to idea of significant lake snow event from Rochester into fingerlakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 12, 2017 Author Share Posted November 12, 2017 Fulton/Ski country special on GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 12, 2017 Author Share Posted November 12, 2017 I forgot how much better pivotal is then tropical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 Gfs is kinda out to lunch on the long range. Been all over the place. Not unusual as indexes shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 12, 2017 Author Share Posted November 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, tim123 said: Gfs is kinda out to lunch on the long range. Been all over the place. Not unusual as indexes shift I'm not so sure. I think after the "cold" blast from Nov 18th-22nd we go warmer than normal again. Tuesday to Friday look slightly warmer than normal as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 12, 2017 Author Share Posted November 12, 2017 Negative PNA continues and the EPO goes Neutral. It also looks to be an east Based -NAO. These aren't the best teleconnections even with the -Ao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 12, 2017 Author Share Posted November 12, 2017 Euro gets 850s to -15. Much better look next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 4 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: I'm not so sure. I think after the "cold" blast from Nov 18th-22nd we go warmer than normal again. Tuesday to Friday look slightly warmer than normal as well. Yup. This is being advertised by both the GEFS and EPS for the extended beyond Thanksgiving. Basically it's the pattern potentially reloading as we break into December. The Weeklies were actually suggesting this relaxation as well, then the arctic opens up and the flood gates pour back east by early-mid December. If that were to occur, you're talking about getting towards good climo for many areas in the east, and really look solid for the Lakes. I still think we'll see transient cold shots at times for your latitude, but nothing substantial until after the aforementioned time frame. I'm thinking a white Christmas is very likely for everyone in the sub-forum and even into areas further downwind. Me on the other hand lives in do or die land where if we don't get systems to bomb to our south or get some kind of crazy snow squall action, it'll be another brown Christmas. I've seen a grand total of 2 "white" Christmas and both were due to snow falling previous days. Only once have I seen flakes on Christmas Day, but it melted on contact. In fact, seen snow 3 times on Thanksgiving lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 1 hour ago, MillvilleWx said: Yup. This is being advertised by both the GEFS and EPS for the extended beyond Thanksgiving. Basically it's the pattern potentially reloading as we break into December. The Weeklies were actually suggesting this relaxation as well, then the arctic opens up and the flood gates pour back east by early-mid December. If that were to occur, you're talking about getting towards good climo for many areas in the east, and really look solid for the Lakes. I still think we'll see transient cold shots at times for your latitude, but nothing substantial until after the aforementioned time frame. I'm thinking a white Christmas is very likely for everyone in the sub-forum and even into areas further downwind. Me on the other hand lives in do or die land where if we don't get systems to bomb to our south or get some kind of crazy snow squall action, it'll be another brown Christmas. I've seen a grand total of 2 "white" Christmas and both were due to snow falling previous days. Only once have I seen flakes on Christmas Day, but it melted on contact. In fact, seen snow 3 times on Thanksgiving lol 0z seems to be locking in on a GL cutter for this weekend with a signature LES event through sunday...on the flip side the meteorologistfrom WIVB 4 in buffalo actually muttered the words "potential snowstorm " next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 Some solid consistency now on this upcoming storm to go sub 970. BUF is already talking up the high wind threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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