CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 This was still a nice preview of what's to come so I'm happy I saw the first flakes of this very early season. Man o man, had there been a wnw-w, flow for a 8-12hr period, there would of been some heafty totals, like those seen towards the northern portion of the UP of MI. 12-18 for those cats!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 The 0z and 6z were different in timing and placement of weather systems just before and during thanksgiving and beyond but one thing is certain is it gets very cold and the models, while confused now, are definitely on the idea of a storm somewhere in the east or northeast, with either a cut off low over the lakes and pounding us with lake effect or a nor'easter that hangs up near the coast due to the blocking over Greenland. Either way it is beginning to get exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 Yes models still sorting pattern out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stanleyjenkins Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 I have 0.9" on the ground this morning in Chili. The patio door on my front door was frozen shut when I tried to let to dogs out at 5am. Had to leave the door open for about half an hour to get that to open again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 I'm at work now, looks like an inch or so here in Cooperstown. Perfect mood setter to start the season off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 Anyone having trouble with the COD nexrad site not working? That's my go to radar but noticed the page looks different with the tool bars on the side now and the loops won't load...??? Anyways Brrr this morning! Single digit wind chills really stinging. Looks like that little Ontario band is about to sink through BUF and give us a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 Just now, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Anyone having trouble with the COD nexrad site not working? That's my go to radar but noticed the page looks different with the tool bars on the side now and the loops won't load...??? Anyways Brrr this morning! Single digit wind chills really stinging. Looks like that little Ontario band is about to sink through BUF and give us a dusting. I noticed the COD site issues. Can't view the loops on my phone anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 2 hours ago, stanleyjenkins said: I have 0.9" on the ground this morning in Chili. The patio door on my front door was frozen shut when I tried to let to dogs out at 5am. Had to leave the door open for about half an hour to get that to open again. 1.2" in South Gates but tricky to measure with melting, blowing, drifting, compaction, etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 First real flakes in Williamsville! Nice to see and hopefully alot more this late fall and winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 Nice 10 minute burst here. Quick dusting here and there even on the pavement. Anyone else notice the trees seem behind schedule again? I mentioned this last year that it seems they are dropping later and later every year. I can always remember them being mostly bare by Halloween but the last two years they were still pretty full into November. With the exception of the older silver maples most of the trees here are still 50% green and full. Just me or anyone else notice this trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 45 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Nice 10 minute burst here. Quick dusting here and there even on the pavement. Anyone else notice the trees seem behind schedule again? I mentioned this last year that it seems they are dropping later and later every year. I can always remember them being mostly bare by Halloween but the last two years they were still pretty full into November. With the exception of the older silver maples most of the trees here are still 50% green and full. Just me or anyone else notice this trend? I was just having this exact conversation with a fellow employee...the trees are definitely behind as I have trees in my neighborhood in Williamsville there completely bare and some still full of leaves and just changing...if the forecast for the week of Thanksgiving comes to fruition there could be some tree damage if we have wet snow during that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 We've picked up around an inch here in BGM. Now just need that first formidable synoptic event to come along so I can justify pulling the trigger on a euro subscription lol! I believe we also are going to have an added presence in here starting this winter out of the NWS Binghamton office. Good to be back with you all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 10, 2017 Author Share Posted November 10, 2017 13 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: We've picked up around an inch here in BGM. Now just need that first formidable synoptic event to come along so I can justify pulling the trigger on a euro subscription lol! I believe we also are going to have an added presence in here starting this winter out of the NWS Binghamton office. Good to be back with you all. Someone from Binghamton nws is going to be posting here? That would be incredible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said: I was just having this exact conversation with a fellow employee...the trees are definitely behind as I have trees in my neighborhood in Williamsville there completely bare and some still full of leaves and just changing...if the forecast for the week of Thanksgiving comes to fruition there could be some tree damage if we have wet snow during that period. Up Until Tuesday most of us on the lake plain hadnt even had a good frost yet. The last few days of hard freezes along with tonights temps in the teens will drop every leaf by Early next week. Its game over for any leaf left. I wouldnt worry about leaves lasting until Thanksgiving with temps in the teens and 20's today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 12 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: We've picked up around an inch here in BGM. Now just need that first formidable synoptic event to come along so I can justify pulling the trigger on a euro subscription lol! I believe we also are going to have an added presence in here starting this winter out of the NWS Binghamton office. Good to be back with you all. Well the 12z just finished and I'm having an honest hard time containing my excitement. With each run I'm starting to see a trend to a cutoff type low just north of the great lakes that moves around a bit. If this trend continues and the models lock in on this as we get into next weekend I think your going to hear our local NWS talk about a long duration LES event the week of Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 10, 2017 Author Share Posted November 10, 2017 24 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Well the 12z just finished and I'm having an honest hard time containing my excitement. With each run I'm starting to see a trend to a cutoff type low just north of the great lakes that moves around a bit. If this trend continues and the models lock in on this as we get into next weekend I think your going to hear our local NWS talk about a long duration LES event the week of Thanksgiving. Pattern looks decent, but cold air is definitely lacking still. Going to need quite a few things to fall in place. Also the obligatory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 44 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Someone from Binghamton nws is going to be posting here? That would be incredible! Yeah a friend of mine just accepted a lateral transfer to come back home and work out of the Binghamton office. He used to be a member on the old eastern US forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 I like the 18th to 20th period for the first signficant Les event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 So what were the final tallies for the three cities anybody got themSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 22 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: I like the 18th to 20th period for the first signficant Les event. Like I've stated I like that period and the Thanksgiving timeframe too. With a very negative AO and NAO and the coaching air not too far away in a cold Canada and upper Midwest, the setup is MUCH different from last year where if we got the same setup the cold air wasn't available because Canada was torching, and that is far fromore the case this year. So when the models don't quite show the cold air yet as it is 10 days away I belive that will be our first major chance for someone in WNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stanleyjenkins Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 Wow, I didn't realize how dry this air-mass was going to be. The dew point is currently down to 1F at KBUF. KROC's a little more sultry sitting at 8F. Might need to setup the humidifier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 Wow, I didn't realize how dry this air-mass was going to be. The dew point is currently down to 1F at KBUF. KROC's a little more sultry sitting at 8F. Might need to setup the humidifier. Hey Stanley, I wasn't able to open your reply for some reason on my cell, perhaps it'll work on my notebook?Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 10, 2017 Author Share Posted November 10, 2017 1 hour ago, OSUmetstud said: I like the 18th to 20th period for the first signficant Les event. Is the air going to be cold enough? Gfs looks marginal at best, euro looks good though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 10, 2017 Author Share Posted November 10, 2017 1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said: Like I've stated I like that period and the Thanksgiving timeframe too. With a very negative AO and NAO and the coaching air not too far away in a cold Canada and upper Midwest, the setup is MUCH different from last year where if we got the same setup the cold air wasn't available because Canada was torching, and that is far fromore the case this year. So when the models don't quite show the cold air yet as it is 10 days away I belive that will be our first major chance for someone in WNY. The pac controls everything. We need help from pna and epo to deliver the arctic air. There is more to it then the ao and nao cooperating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 10, 2017 Author Share Posted November 10, 2017 I agree though, the last 10 days of November look good so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: The pac controls everything. We need help from pna and epo to deliver the arctic air. There is more to it then the ao and nao cooperating. The wpo Aleutian ridge is very strong and is inducing cross polar flow. The coldest anomalies in the northern hemisphere are in Canada because of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 Roc got 1.5. From the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stanleyjenkins Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 6 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: So what were the final tallies for the three cities anybody got them KBUF: 0.1" KROC: 1.5" KSYR: 0.4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 11, 2017 Author Share Posted November 11, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 11, 2017 Author Share Posted November 11, 2017 I still don't see any arctic air coming into the lakes though. Nick can you explain how it's possible to get a significant lake effect event with those marginal temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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