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Upstate/Eastern New York

BuffaloWeather

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Thinksnow18

Thinksnow18

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

They never are, lol!

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The 18z last night looked a bit odd to me as all the cold air that the models and the indices have been showing for the 3rd week of November just disappered...well that must have been a bad run because it's back and thanksgiving looks cold and possibly white.

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CNY-LES FREAK

CNY-LES FREAK

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I usually follow the 18 and 06z runs if there is a trend, but otherwise I usually just worry about the 00 and 12z as those are the runs where most data gets absorbed into the algorithm. Long range, ensambles are a good bet, only if their in agreement, otherwise stick to 3-5 day and forget fantasy land.
It's November 7th, and we're talkin snow and cold already, which in this neck of the Country, is quite rare, so we're ahead of the game this yr. Yeah last Nov we had a huge appetizer, but the entree never came, but I think things are quite different this yr, so I'm extremely optimistic.
With that said, it can just as easily head the other way, but as many have alluded to, Canada is ready to deliver the goods this yr unlike the last two to 7 yrs, lol.

Ty

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Thinksnow18

Thinksnow18

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I'm pretty optimistic about Late Nov into January. Monthlies say Feb and March are really warm though. Might be early start, quick end of winter this year which I would prefer over a late winter. 

So I was opening my chrome on my phone to go to tropical tidbits and check on the newly run 12z...and to my surprise blurb popped up fromy AccuWeather hyping, not a surprise,  the cold coming in the 3rd week to the northeast...nowe I don't go to AccuWeather for anything save for a laugh or 2 when margusity was around, but it started to slowly reaffirm what us novices are seeing as well, that time frame is looking very interesting for either A) and early season snowstorm or B) a serious lake effect event somewhere in the great lakes. 

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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Posted
42 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

So I was opening my chrome on my phone to go to tropical tidbits and check on the newly run 12z...and to my surprise blurb popped up fromy AccuWeather hyping, not a surprise,  the cold coming in the 3rd week to the northeast...nowe I don't go to AccuWeather for anything save for a laugh or 2 when margusity was around, but it started to slowly reaffirm what us novices are seeing as well, that time frame is looking very interesting for either A) and early season snowstorm or B) a serious lake effect event somewhere in the great lakes. 

I don't see enough cold air right now for a major LES event, but still to far out to make predictions right now. We will have a better idea once we reach the middle of the month. Accuweather is a private company, so they have to make money, hyping storms gets them more clicks and more money. Can't really blame them. 

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stanleyjenkins

stanleyjenkins

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Accuweather is a private company, so they have to make money, hyping storms gets them more clicks and more money. Can't really blame them. 

Exactly. The sad part is, they give a bad name to the rest of us when the hype turns to a dud. I get asked a bit by family and friends for what the weather will be like _______. Almost always, it's a week, maybe two or more away and say it's too far away. Occasionally, the response will be, but "so and so" (like Accuweather) has forecasts that far out. "How come they can put a forecast that far out, but you can't". Ugh.

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CNY-LES FREAK

CNY-LES FREAK

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Wicked difference from last yr. All the cold and snow stayed on the wrong side of the pole last yr, but not this yr. We're in for a nice old fashioned Winter, where what falls in November is still under what falls in January. Haven't had one of those Winters in a little while. NAO is gonna tank, along with the AO, as it already looks like its doing!

Looks like KROC sees a nice 3-6" that extends inland quite ways as there could be upstream connections and if that happens, local areas that get blessed, can see a lot more.


ea680a0ed214b030bed7d7957efae7b3.jpg



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Syrmax

Syrmax

Posted
Posted

Syracuse.com (The Post Standard), picked up on that Accublunder hype about a snowstorm possible Thanksgiving week. I had to do a quick double check that yes, it's only November 8th and Thanksgiving is over two weeks away.  o:O

Mr. Glenn Coin, (who usually does solid weather stuff online at 'Cuse.com), if you lurking here...you get weenie of the week.  I would say weenie of the month...but it's early yet...;)

Speaking of which, maybe we should have a weenie of the week/month  "Award" in this forum to liven things up.  Most of us are contenders at some point or another.   "Winner" sports a hot dog for their avatar for the period. Yes, I know, it may ruffle some feathers occasionally but it might be fun. Discuss...

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LoveSN+

LoveSN+

Posted
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25 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

These indexes are all over the place. Euro ens are warm long range, GFS are normal/slightly colder. Teleconnections seem to become more favorable. Those indexes scream nor'easter later this month. 

4indices.png

What about this says warm in the long range? Both GEFS and EPS develop eastern troughs in 10-15 day range.

10-15d EPS 11-8-17.PNG

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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Was just checking out record low in Buffalo for Friday, is is 19 degrees. Check out the low temps in the year 1880. Wasn't the reporting station the water at that time, and isn't Lake Erie on average in the 50s during that time? That week was insanity! From Nov 19th to the 26th there were 7 record lows ranging from 12 to 3 degrees! 

http://www.intellicast.com/local/history.aspx?location=USNY0181

Found this about the November 1880 cold outbreak.

https://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2013/11/if-you-think-its-been-cold-lately.html

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MillvilleWx

MillvilleWx

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8 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Surprise, long range is trending towards warmer than average. 

Not necessarily. There will be a "warmish" period prior to Thanksgiving, but it looks like the bottom drops out sometime Thanksgiving week as trough dumps east and strong Canadian HP motions back into the CONUS. This depiction is mid month after the cold shot. The upper level pattern signals surface ridging off along and off the SE coast, so we get fed with the backside of the high. Thus, warmer than normal temps heading into weekend prior to Thanksgiving. You can see with the height pattern, there's a more zonal regime setup, so you're not going to muster any storms to carve a trough at any point and the pattern stays stagnant for a time. 

 

5a04217b7a0e1_eurobeforeTG.thumb.png.33c1e83c9fbe514551b38234328e8eb9.png

 

Now as we head into Thanksgiving week, the trough off the coast of BC moves east and we begin to carve a trough over the Northern Plains and dumps into the east. Height rises out west signal the precursor to the forecasted +PNA setup for the end of the month, meaning trough axis settling into the east. NAO pattern will be more blocky, thus pattern will not move quickly and cold could in theory stick around longer. This is what I was referring to for the GL region end of the month into December. A more pronounced cold air pattern across the warm lakes should set off the LES machine in the long term.

 

5a0423279256f_EuroafterTG.thumb.png.a9359aa273ca49ab2d87140489d494ad.png

 

If we can get a powerful shortwave trough to traverse the area late November into December, could see a pretty decent event unfold. Tonight's Euro was signaling something like that at the end of it's run. Check out the heights over the lakes for hour 240!! That's a LES maker if I've ever seen one. But you can see the general theme from a smoothed mean like the EPS and the operational Euro with the rising height pattern out West and deeper trough cutting into the East. 

 

5a042393cc888_EuroBomb.thumb.png.c38e73a67ca78340b9da1170291ffff6.png

 

And if this shot of the high latitudes doesn't get you excited for what's to come, nothing will. I'd be getting ready for some cold and snow if I lived in the snow belt.

 

5a04247b71e4c_EuroHL.thumb.png.35802ea76c8ac1e1461155a7ef0b6ed7.png

 

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DeltaT13

DeltaT13

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Posted

I really don't know what to expect from this.  Two years in a row we get an early season storm that has little precedent (at least within our recent history).  The boundary layer is absolutely bone dry, but delta T's are about as high as it can get so who knows if they offset each other.  Another negative is the very strong surface winds that will certainly make organization difficult.  Here's hoping we get some serious upstream priming and a few inches to get this season kicked off.  

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