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Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

That's a nice looking arctic front for Nov 10th. Not as much moisture on the GEM.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_14.png

Lol I'm a slow poster! I was just going to mention that slide from the 12z! I also like the look waaaaaaaayyyyyyyy out in 384 lala land with a cut off low to the north of superior and plenty of cold air around. I usually don't perk up too much anything after 5 days out, but this year has been a bit different in that what is appearing out in the 7 to 12 day time frame is actually coming to fruition, if memory serves me last couple years were alot of ghosts on the models where they would show a pattern change then as you'd draw near it would vanish and flip to warm. I like what I'm seeing in the models and in the artic right now. 

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Just now, Thinksnow18 said:

Lol I'm a slow poster! I was just going to mention that slide from the 12z! I also like the look waaaaaaaayyyyyyyy out in 384 lala land with a cut off low to the north of superior and plenty of cold air around. I usually don't perk up too much anything after 5 days out, but this year has been a bit different in that what is appearing out in the 7 to 12 day time frame is actually coming to fruition, if memory serves me last couple years were alot of ghosts on the models where they would show a pattern change then as you'd draw near it would vanish and flip to warm. I like what I'm seeing in the models and in the artic right now. 

You're allowed to post clown maps here. Even though anything past a week is most likely not going to happen. But when you do prepare for this emote. :weenie: 

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2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Lol I'm a slow poster! I was just going to mention that slide from the 12z! I also like the look waaaaaaaayyyyyyyy out in 384 lala land with a cut off low to the north of superior and plenty of cold air around. I usually don't perk up too much anything after 5 days out, but this year has been a bit different in that what is appearing out in the 7 to 12 day time frame is actually coming to fruition, if memory serves me last couple years were alot of ghosts on the models where they would show a pattern change then as you'd draw near it would vanish and flip to warm. I like what I'm seeing in the models and in the artic right now. 

Yeah the last 2 winters would show tons of cold in the long range just to have it disappear as you got closer. I think Canadian snow cover is much more important for our winters than Siberian snow cover, the last 2 years featured very little snow cover in Canada. This year looks much different than those. I still think we have an average Buffalo winter this year. +1 temps with 95" of snowfall. 

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3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah the last 2 winters would show tons of cold in the long range just to have it disappear as you got closer. I think Canadian snow cover is much more important for our winters than Siberian snow cover, the last 2 years featured very little snow cover in Canada. This year looks much different than those. I still think we have an average Buffalo winter this year. +1 temps with 95" of snowfall. 

I agree. The fact that the area between here in buffalo to northern Minnesota has Ben above average in rainfall this last few weeks coupled with the expanding snow covered in Canada is to me a good sign that we will have cold air lurking by relatively close much of the upcoming winter.

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12 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

In regards to your earlier post Thinksnow, Pretty good blocking with some west coast ridging developing week 3 and 4 on weeklies. Thinking out first big LES storm is sometime later this month. Week 2 looks warm which would be perfect to keep lake temps high.

Still showing up. In fact the 6z at hour 288 has a low moving in and bringing what would appear to be our first widespread snowfall from Saturday the 18th into Sunday the 19th. I know I hear DP in the back of my head saying "TS meteorology isn't forecast with wishcasting" but I am really getting charged up about the potential in that time frame and beyond for the areas first real hit of winter.

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Dry air will be a problem but just looking for first flakes!!

 
Latest models continuing to suggest that a band of rain showers will
form along and just ahead of the front as a result of substantial
boost in large scale forcing and moisture convergence. Combined with
mesoscale lake enhancement off both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, as
over-lake instability increases. The rain showers will likely change
over to snow under very strong cold air advection before ending
shortly after the frontal passage.

Much colder air, and certainly the coldest so far this young winter
season will plunge across the lower Great Lakes Thursday night and
Friday, with 850 mb temperatures plummeting in the -16C to -18C
range in the west and in the -18C to -20C range across the North
Country. Multiple bands of lake effect snow will evolve in the
northwest flow setup southeast of the lakes as over-lake instability
dramatically increases as Lake delta T`s approach 30C. Moisture
profiles quite dry and will considerably limit lake effect
accumulation potential. At this point, looks like localized minor
accumulations will be possible.
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47 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Dry air will be a problem but just looking for first flakes!!

 

Latest models continuing to suggest that a band of rain showers will
form along and just ahead of the front as a result of substantial
boost in large scale forcing and moisture convergence. Combined with
mesoscale lake enhancement off both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, as
over-lake instability increases. The rain showers will likely change
over to snow under very strong cold air advection before ending
shortly after the frontal passage.

Much colder air, and certainly the coldest so far this young winter
season will plunge across the lower Great Lakes Thursday night and
Friday, with 850 mb temperatures plummeting in the -16C to -18C
range in the west and in the -18C to -20C range across the North
Country. Multiple bands of lake effect snow will evolve in the
northwest flow setup southeast of the lakes as over-lake instability
dramatically increases as Lake delta T`s approach 30C. Moisture
profiles quite dry and will considerably limit lake effect
accumulation potential. At this point, looks like localized minor
accumulations will be possible.

Ahhhh the appetizer!!! Any snow in November nowadays is bonus snowfall!!! We're just setting the table.

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48 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

We had more than an appetizer in CNY last November...full blown meal even before the real turkey was served up.

We sure did, that was one hell of an early season storm too.  One of the best of the whole season last year.  KROC had a little over a foot of snow on the 20th and 21st.  It was all gone 4 days later though.

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1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said:

We sure did, that was one hell of an early season storm too.  One of the best of the whole season last year.  KROC had a little over a foot of snow on the 20th and 21st.  It was all gone 4 days later though.

That was a nice event to begin the season, especially for me.  After the very cold and snowy February 2015 we had, I said to myself that I finally had enough of shoveling and would buy a snow blower. November 2015 came around and I bought one. Time and time again during the 2015-2016 season, the models would hint at some measurable snow coming our way a few days out getting me excited I would get to use it for the first time, but never came to be.  There was only one time I was able to use it that entire season (the January snowstorm), at which time I had the flu so it wasn't as great of a first time. So yeah, it was great to get to use it that early on last year.  

And greetings from Chili! Happy to see someone from Gates in here.

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15 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

 


I’d be prepping the snowblower up there. Places like Perrysburg could get whacked over the rest of the calendar year if Weeklies come to light.


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You have to come up again soon. We need another Duffs night along with some Lake Effect chasing! 

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1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

 


I just might do that in mid December. We can talk! It would be great. Looks like we could have quite a few chances if everything lines up right!


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How confident are you in the weeklies? Anything pass week 3 has no verification success correct? I remember the euro weeklies looking good last year and never came to fruition. Obviously this year feels different with actual cold and snow cover in our source region Canada. 

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How confident are you in the weeklies? Anything pass week 3 has no verification success correct? I remember the euro weeklies looking good last year and never came to fruition. Obviously this year feels different with actual cold and snow cover in our source region Canada. 



I wouldn’t take them as gospel for sure, but the way the high latitudes are sorting themselves out now means good trends down the road. The AO flip to negative with blocking will almost assuredly provide the rest of the month to be pretty solid for the GL area. Beyond that, it gets muddier obviously, but as long as we see large H’s over the pole and not large L’s, we will be in good shape. All the indices we want to look favorable are trending favorable. Haven’t seen that in like 6 years lol


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