BuffaloWeather Posted November 6, 2017 Author Share Posted November 6, 2017 That's a nice looking arctic front for Nov 10th. Not as much moisture on the GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: That's a nice looking arctic front for Nov 10th. Not as much moisture on the GEM. Lol I'm a slow poster! I was just going to mention that slide from the 12z! I also like the look waaaaaaaayyyyyyyy out in 384 lala land with a cut off low to the north of superior and plenty of cold air around. I usually don't perk up too much anything after 5 days out, but this year has been a bit different in that what is appearing out in the 7 to 12 day time frame is actually coming to fruition, if memory serves me last couple years were alot of ghosts on the models where they would show a pattern change then as you'd draw near it would vanish and flip to warm. I like what I'm seeing in the models and in the artic right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 6, 2017 Author Share Posted November 6, 2017 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: Lol I'm a slow poster! I was just going to mention that slide from the 12z! I also like the look waaaaaaaayyyyyyyy out in 384 lala land with a cut off low to the north of superior and plenty of cold air around. I usually don't perk up too much anything after 5 days out, but this year has been a bit different in that what is appearing out in the 7 to 12 day time frame is actually coming to fruition, if memory serves me last couple years were alot of ghosts on the models where they would show a pattern change then as you'd draw near it would vanish and flip to warm. I like what I'm seeing in the models and in the artic right now. You're allowed to post clown maps here. Even though anything past a week is most likely not going to happen. But when you do prepare for this emote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 6, 2017 Author Share Posted November 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Lol I'm a slow poster! I was just going to mention that slide from the 12z! I also like the look waaaaaaaayyyyyyyy out in 384 lala land with a cut off low to the north of superior and plenty of cold air around. I usually don't perk up too much anything after 5 days out, but this year has been a bit different in that what is appearing out in the 7 to 12 day time frame is actually coming to fruition, if memory serves me last couple years were alot of ghosts on the models where they would show a pattern change then as you'd draw near it would vanish and flip to warm. I like what I'm seeing in the models and in the artic right now. Yeah the last 2 winters would show tons of cold in the long range just to have it disappear as you got closer. I think Canadian snow cover is much more important for our winters than Siberian snow cover, the last 2 years featured very little snow cover in Canada. This year looks much different than those. I still think we have an average Buffalo winter this year. +1 temps with 95" of snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah the last 2 winters would show tons of cold in the long range just to have it disappear as you got closer. I think Canadian snow cover is much more important for our winters than Siberian snow cover, the last 2 years featured very little snow cover in Canada. This year looks much different than those. I still think we have an average Buffalo winter this year. +1 temps with 95" of snowfall. I agree. The fact that the area between here in buffalo to northern Minnesota has Ben above average in rainfall this last few weeks coupled with the expanding snow covered in Canada is to me a good sign that we will have cold air lurking by relatively close much of the upcoming winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 Superior and Michigan belts talking lake snow up as we get closer. Must be seeing the parameters better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 6, 2017 Author Share Posted November 6, 2017 57 minutes ago, tim123 said: Superior and Michigan belts talking lake snow up as we get closer. Must be seeing the parameters better Unlikely, the air isn’t as dry there as it is here. Much better synoptic support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 6, 2017 Author Share Posted November 6, 2017 In regards to your earlier post Thinksnow, Pretty good blocking with some west coast ridging developing week 3 and 4 on weeklies. Thinking out first big LES storm is sometime later this month. Week 2 looks warm which would be perfect to keep lake temps high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 12 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: In regards to your earlier post Thinksnow, Pretty good blocking with some west coast ridging developing week 3 and 4 on weeklies. Thinking out first big LES storm is sometime later this month. Week 2 looks warm which would be perfect to keep lake temps high. Still showing up. In fact the 6z at hour 288 has a low moving in and bringing what would appear to be our first widespread snowfall from Saturday the 18th into Sunday the 19th. I know I hear DP in the back of my head saying "TS meteorology isn't forecast with wishcasting" but I am really getting charged up about the potential in that time frame and beyond for the areas first real hit of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 Dam if something like 06z on gfs panned out talking feet of snow in Rochester. One can wish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 15 minutes ago, tim123 said: Dam if something like 06z on gfs panned out talking feet of snow in Rochester. One can wish The 0z is similar...kinda nervous that for 2 runs in a row the models show a semblance of an East coast storm in that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 Dry air will be a problem but just looking for first flakes!! Latest models continuing to suggest that a band of rain showers will form along and just ahead of the front as a result of substantial boost in large scale forcing and moisture convergence. Combined with mesoscale lake enhancement off both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, as over-lake instability increases. The rain showers will likely change over to snow under very strong cold air advection before ending shortly after the frontal passage. Much colder air, and certainly the coldest so far this young winter season will plunge across the lower Great Lakes Thursday night and Friday, with 850 mb temperatures plummeting in the -16C to -18C range in the west and in the -18C to -20C range across the North Country. Multiple bands of lake effect snow will evolve in the northwest flow setup southeast of the lakes as over-lake instability dramatically increases as Lake delta T`s approach 30C. Moisture profiles quite dry and will considerably limit lake effect accumulation potential. At this point, looks like localized minor accumulations will be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 47 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Dry air will be a problem but just looking for first flakes!! Latest models continuing to suggest that a band of rain showers will form along and just ahead of the front as a result of substantial boost in large scale forcing and moisture convergence. Combined with mesoscale lake enhancement off both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, as over-lake instability increases. The rain showers will likely change over to snow under very strong cold air advection before ending shortly after the frontal passage. Much colder air, and certainly the coldest so far this young winter season will plunge across the lower Great Lakes Thursday night and Friday, with 850 mb temperatures plummeting in the -16C to -18C range in the west and in the -18C to -20C range across the North Country. Multiple bands of lake effect snow will evolve in the northwest flow setup southeast of the lakes as over-lake instability dramatically increases as Lake delta T`s approach 30C. Moisture profiles quite dry and will considerably limit lake effect accumulation potential. At this point, looks like localized minor accumulations will be possible. Ahhhh the appetizer!!! Any snow in November nowadays is bonus snowfall!!! We're just setting the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stanleyjenkins Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 3 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said: Ahhhh the appetizer!!! Any snow in November nowadays is bonus snowfall!!! We're just setting the table. We just need the seal to be broken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 We had more than an appetizer in CNY last November...full blown meal even before the real turkey was served up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 48 minutes ago, Syrmax said: We had more than an appetizer in CNY last November...full blown meal even before the real turkey was served up. We sure did, that was one hell of an early season storm too. One of the best of the whole season last year. KROC had a little over a foot of snow on the 20th and 21st. It was all gone 4 days later though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 I'd like to see the October HV runner repeat in late Nov... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stanleyjenkins Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said: We sure did, that was one hell of an early season storm too. One of the best of the whole season last year. KROC had a little over a foot of snow on the 20th and 21st. It was all gone 4 days later though. That was a nice event to begin the season, especially for me. After the very cold and snowy February 2015 we had, I said to myself that I finally had enough of shoveling and would buy a snow blower. November 2015 came around and I bought one. Time and time again during the 2015-2016 season, the models would hint at some measurable snow coming our way a few days out getting me excited I would get to use it for the first time, but never came to be. There was only one time I was able to use it that entire season (the January snowstorm), at which time I had the flu so it wasn't as great of a first time. So yeah, it was great to get to use it that early on last year. And greetings from Chili! Happy to see someone from Gates in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 Not much real estate on KBUFs AFD for the arctic front + post LES. They don't seem impressed (other than the magnitude of the cold). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 It was a horrible afd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 42 minutes ago, tim123 said: It was a horrible afd Makes me think a more in depth update is coming in the next hour or so. H5 region still looks excellent for high latitude blocked 3rd and 4th week of November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 7, 2017 Author Share Posted November 7, 2017 Nice look in late Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 7, 2017 Author Share Posted November 7, 2017 The Ao looks to tank pretty quickly the next 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 The Ao looks to tank pretty quickly the next 2 weeks.I’d be prepping the snowblower up there. Places like Perrysburg could get whacked over the rest of the calendar year if Weeklies come to light. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 8, 2017 Author Share Posted November 8, 2017 15 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I’d be prepping the snowblower up there. Places like Perrysburg could get whacked over the rest of the calendar year if Weeklies come to light. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk You have to come up again soon. We need another Duffs night along with some Lake Effect chasing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 You have to come up again soon. We need another Duffs night along with some Lake Effect chasing! I just might do that in mid December. We can talk! It would be great. Looks like we could have quite a few chances if everything lines up right!Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 8, 2017 Author Share Posted November 8, 2017 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: I just might do that in mid December. We can talk! It would be great. Looks like we could have quite a few chances if everything lines up right! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk How confident are you in the weeklies? Anything pass week 3 has no verification success correct? I remember the euro weeklies looking good last year and never came to fruition. Obviously this year feels different with actual cold and snow cover in our source region Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 How confident are you in the weeklies? Anything pass week 3 has no verification success correct? I remember the euro weeklies looking good last year and never came to fruition. Obviously this year feels different with actual cold and snow cover in our source region Canada. I wouldn’t take them as gospel for sure, but the way the high latitudes are sorting themselves out now means good trends down the road. The AO flip to negative with blocking will almost assuredly provide the rest of the month to be pretty solid for the GL area. Beyond that, it gets muddier obviously, but as long as we see large H’s over the pole and not large L’s, we will be in good shape. All the indices we want to look favorable are trending favorable. Haven’t seen that in like 6 years lolSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 Think between roc and syr there could be several inches friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 Not much real estate on KBUFs AFD for the arctic front + post LES. They don't seem impressed (other than the magnitude of the cold).They never are, lol!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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