BuffaloWeather Posted November 29, 2017 Author Share Posted November 29, 2017 On 11/29/2017 at 9:49 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: I would hunker down in a decent hotel A tad south or se Of Buffalo Expand Yeah there is a bunch in Hamburg/Orchard Park/West Seneca, which allows you to get north pretty quickly via the 90 or south via the 219. Obviously we won't know wind direction until Sunday/Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 Hampton Inn Ridge RoadHoliday inn HamburgSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phillifan22 Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 On 11/29/2017 at 9:49 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: I would hunker down in a decent hotel A tad south or se Of Buffalo Expand I've chased off Ontario several times in the past few years, both S/SE and E of the lake. I would suggest that you get a good deal of experience chasing (plus an AWD/4WD car and being able to interpret radar, etc.) before trying anything east of Ontario, because the Tug can be quite dangerous during a nice LES event. The issues are pretty obvious, with the geography and desolate nature, snow drifts on roads from open fields, lack of plowing (not complaining, it's just a large area), lack of cell reception, and complete whiteout conditions with the strong winds and high snowfall rates. Most of the same is true for around and south of Buffalo, however, as people mentioned, much more populated. I would say if you were to chase in the Tug, just get up there before and stay in a hotel (in Pulaski for instance) and watch the magic until you get unburied and can leave! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 29, 2017 Author Share Posted November 29, 2017 Euro is on board. Classic flow for high impact event, so far out still though. I'll start getting more excited Sunday night when the mesoscale models start catching on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 On 11/29/2017 at 10:11 PM, Phillifan22 said: I've chased off Ontario several times in the past few years, both S/SE and E of the lake. I would suggest that you get a good deal of experience chasing (plus an AWD/4WD car and being able to interpret radar, etc.) before trying anything east of Ontario, because the Tug can be quite dangerous during a nice LES event. The issues are pretty obvious, with the geography and desolate nature, snow drifts on roads from open fields, lack of plowing (not complaining, it's just a large area), lack of cell reception, and complete whiteout conditions with the strong winds and high snowfall rates. Most of the same is true for around and south of Buffalo, however, as people mentioned, much more populated. I would say if you were to chase in the Tug, just get up there before and stay in a hotel (in Pulaski for instance) and watch the magic until you get unburied and can leave! Expand I’ve also chased off Ontario numerous times and I second everything you just said, 4 wheel drive is an absolute must, and if you don’t have extensive experience driving in blinding snow and whiteouts then I wouldn’t even think about attempting it unless your looking to do what I’ve done a few times and pick a hotel and arrive before it begins and stay there until it’s over. If your really set on going off Ontario I have a few go to hotels that I go to when chasing depending where you want to go and know several good restaurants as well. If you want convience going south of Buffalo from West Seneca to Hamburg will be your best bet depending on how the winds set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southbuffalowx Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 Wow, I don't pay attention to the weather for a few days because nothing interesting was forecast and look what happens! Definitely an exciting pattern we are headed into. Looks like the worst of it will hit over a weekend, so I that will make the effects much more tolerable, should it end up hitting the metro hard. Plus no finals until later in the week so I can chase/track it without worry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 On 11/29/2017 at 10:18 PM, BuffaloWeather said: Euro is on board. Classic flow for high impact event, so far out still though. I'll start getting more excited Sunday night when the mesoscale models start catching on. Expand The fact that there are snow totals from this far away that approach a foot in alot of WNY on low res models is amazing and will only he smoothed out and increased as we get closer to next week. Aaron mentkowski who actually is a friend of mine on wkbw mentioned headline worthy lake effect late next week...exciting times for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 29, 2017 Author Share Posted November 29, 2017 On 11/29/2017 at 11:30 PM, Thinksnow18 said: The fact that there are snow totals from this far away that approach a foot in alot of WNY on low res models is amazing and will only he smoothed out and increased as we get closer to next week. Aaron mentkowski who actually is a friend of mine on wkbw mentioned headline worthy lake effect late next week...exciting times for sure! Expand Yeah, it's very rare for Euro to show this type of LES totals this far out. Most of the NWS are already mentioning the LES potential, KBUF will hop on board later this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 On 11/29/2017 at 9:44 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: Thank you for the responses and suggestions. Ill probably pop back in as we get closer. i dont want to be Jack Nicholson frozen to a bush , in a epic snow band far away from civilization Expand Yeah the Tug demands respect. We've done extensive travel in snow all over the northeast to back country ski. We've been through big snowstorms in the Adirondacks, the Greens but I've never felt actual fear like I felt on the Tug when the lake effect started cranking along with the wind. It is truly desolate in areas and can be very intimidating. The danger is real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 On 11/29/2017 at 10:11 PM, Phillifan22 said: I've chased off Ontario several times in the past few years, both S/SE and E of the lake. I would suggest that you get a good deal of experience chasing (plus an AWD/4WD car and being able to interpret radar, etc.) before trying anything east of Ontario, because the Tug can be quite dangerous during a nice LES event. The issues are pretty obvious, with the geography and desolate nature, snow drifts on roads from open fields, lack of plowing (not complaining, it's just a large area), lack of cell reception, and complete whiteout conditions with the strong winds and high snowfall rates. Most of the same is true for around and south of Buffalo, however, as people mentioned, much more populated. I would say if you were to chase in the Tug, just get up there before and stay in a hotel (in Pulaski for instance) and watch the magic until you get unburied and can leave! Expand Excellent posts regarding chasing in the Tug, off Ontario! Here are a few pics from the big 1/16 LES event near Adams. Considering doing it again, as soon as next weekend. But, may wait for a significant blizzard event in SNE, instead. Always looking for an historic weather event to document. Whether I, too, choose to chase, I'm praying each of you get at least a 3 snowflake event out of this upcoming pattern change! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Never been to Tug. Gotta get up that way sometime. Seen my share of good storms in Rochester 4 inch a hour is the max I think in Rochester area. So seeing 8 a hour has got to be a sight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 On 11/29/2017 at 11:35 PM, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah, it's very rare for Euro to show this type of LES totals this far out. Most of the NWS are already mentioning the LES potential, KBUF will hop on board later this week. Expand Somewhat surprised the NWS isn't using the lake effect wording yet while every met and local station is at least hinting that something big could be on the way next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 On 11/29/2017 at 10:08 PM, Superstorm said: Hampton Inn Ridge Road Holiday inn Hamburg Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Expand I'll second the Hampton on Ridge Road in West Seneca. If we get a WSW flow lock in that's pretty much ground zero. Plus 3 major highways all meet up there. Your within a 30 minute drive of chasing a SSW band up in the falls to catching NW streamers down in the southern tier hills. You can't beat that flexibility... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 On 11/30/2017 at 2:30 AM, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Somewhat surprised the NWS isn't using the lake effect wording yet while every met and local station is at least hinting that something big could be on the way next week... KBUF usually is late to the party, but when they get there, they definitely have the best discussions, when LES is involved. KBGM is also good but extremely conservative when it comes to totals which is usually the case in and around Syracuse, but a different story up in Oneida County. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 On 11/30/2017 at 2:49 AM, SouthBuffaloSteve said: I'll second the Hampton on Ridge Road in West Seneca. If we get a WSW flow lock in that's pretty much ground zero. Plus 3 major highways all meet up there. Your within a 30 minute drive of chasing a SSW band up in the falls to catching NW streamers down in the southern tier hills. You can't beat that flexibility... Expand If this is the one I’m thinking of isn’t this actually on Slade Ave? This is less than a mile from my house. I agree West Seneca looks to be a great spot with the 90,219,400 and 190 all within 5 minutes or so especially right off the highway on ridge road. You could walk to tops, Kmart, wegmans and a couple restaurants if things got real bad and just down the road you have the south gate plaza or jump on the 219 and get off at Milestrip in 5 min and your in Orchard Park with all the stores at Quaker Crossing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 On 11/30/2017 at 3:00 AM, WesterlyWx said: If this is the one I’m thinking of isn’t this actually on Slade Ave? This is less than a mile from my house. I agree West Seneca looks to be a great spot with the 90,219,400 and 190 all within 5 minutes or so especially right off the highway on ridge road. You could walk to tops, Kmart, wegmans and a couple restaurants if things got real bad and just down the road you have the south gate plaza or jump on the 219 and get off at Milestrip in 5 min and your in Orchard Park with all the stores at Quaker Crossing. Expand Yeah that's the one. It is on Slade but they list the address as Ridge Road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 30, 2017 Author Share Posted November 30, 2017 1985 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 30, 2017 Author Share Posted November 30, 2017 If event is big, thruways will get closed on quick but I agree that is a good spot. You can always walk on the thruway to the spot you need to get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 30, 2017 Author Share Posted November 30, 2017 This is why the Pacific is the most important look at that PNA. Positive PNA, Negative NAO, Negative EPO, Neutral WPO, Negative AO. Literally every indice is perfect for Great Lakes and Northeast cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 On 11/30/2017 at 3:18 AM, BuffaloWeather said: 1985 Expand Some other good dates in there as well... 76 this was the big lake effect storm that started the onslaught in 77. 40" at BUF in those 3 days and 90" over the last 6 weeks of the year. 58 saw 6-8 feet over a 6 day period south of the city... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Well fellow weenies her is the blurb from KBUF we've been waiting for: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 The words "numerous high impact events" is like nirvana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stanleyjenkins Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 This pattern change needs to get here already. I'm growing tired of this boring tranquil weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 On 11/30/2017 at 12:16 PM, stanleyjenkins said: This pattern change needs to get here already. I'm growing tired of this boring tranquil weather. Expand 1 more week.... I was thinking about it last night and I was wondering if we should do a Upstate get together somewhere like they do in the New England forum now that there’s more posters in the Upstate area... wondering what people’s input is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 On 11/30/2017 at 12:23 PM, WesterlyWx said: 1 more week.... I was thinking about it last night and I was wondering if we should do a Upstate get together somewhere like they do in the New England forum now that there’s more posters in the Upstate area... wondering what people’s input is. Expand Id be in for that, of course i'm busy as hell but that would be cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stanleyjenkins Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 On 11/30/2017 at 12:29 PM, Thinksnow18 said: Id be in for that, of course i'm busy as hell but that would be cool. Expand I too would be interested, but my wife's 8 months pregnant so I'd need a miracle to occur to be able to get away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 On 11/30/2017 at 12:23 PM, WesterlyWx said: 1 more week.... I was thinking about it last night and I was wondering if we should do a Upstate get together somewhere like they do in the New England forum now that there’s more posters in the Upstate area... wondering what people’s input is. I'm definitely down, but where is the question? I'm 45 minutes from KROC and 2.5 from KBUF. How do you pick a location? Either way I'm down.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 On 11/30/2017 at 12:43 PM, CNY-LES FREAK said: I'm definitely down, but where is the question? I'm 45 minutes from KROC and 2.5 from KBUF. How do you pick a location? Either way I'm down. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Expand We’d have to find somewhere that works for everyone, so buffalo probably isn’t the best pick being it’s so far west in Upstate. Somewhere around KROC might work as it would be an hour for the BUF folks and an hour for the KSYR crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 On 11/30/2017 at 12:57 PM, WesterlyWx said: We’d have to find somewhere that works for everyone, so buffalo probably isn’t the best pick being it’s so far west in Upstate. Somewhere around KROC might work as it would be an hour for the BUF folks and an hour for the KSYR crew.Delta, you talking about just a get-together or perhaps maybe a Chase and a get together, LOL?Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 On 11/30/2017 at 1:02 PM, CNY-LES FREAK said: Delta, you talking about just a get-together or perhaps maybe a Chase and a get together, LOL?Sent from my SM-G930V using TapatalkMy bad Westerly, I quoted you and was asking Delta the question, lol.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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