BuffaloWeather Posted October 1, 2017 Share Posted October 1, 2017 Figured since it's October 1st and first flakes are a few weeks away I should get a new thread going. Looks like this winter is going to be either a Weak/Moderate La Nina. I went back through the years to see what that usually means for Buffalo. I matched it up with this graph showing the various Nino/Nina years. It looks like overall we do worse in Strong Ninos/Ninas. The correlation is tough to grasp, if there even is any. Our snowfall is do dependent on the lake and wind direction, only takes one storm to go above the 30 year seasonal average which is between 95-98" Looks like a warm work week into the weekend and then another cooldown. Lots of ups and downs in the pattern the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted October 1, 2017 Share Posted October 1, 2017 Appropriate for the new thread, our first 32F reading this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 1, 2017 Share Posted October 1, 2017 1 hour ago, cny rider said: Appropriate for the new thread, our first 32F reading this morning. Also hit 32 here this morning with widespread frost on everything... roofs, grass, cars, pumpkins. Had to scrape the windshield this morning as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 2, 2017 Author Share Posted October 2, 2017 What a tragic day today. Crazy what this country has come to. I guess we just have to keep moving on and living our lives though. Pretty incredible Bills victory yesterday and our first weenie snowstorm on GFS in long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 4, 2017 Author Share Posted October 4, 2017 https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2017-2018-us-winter-forecast/70002894 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2017-2018-us-winter-forecast/70002894 When don't they go cold and snowy for the northeast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 4, 2017 Author Share Posted October 4, 2017 7 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: When don't they go cold and snowy for the northeast? I don't believe they did the last 2 years? We had early lake effect and record snowfall in Maine. https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2016-2017-us-winter-forecast-northeast-above-normal-snow-freeze-hurt-citrus-south/60277878 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 5, 2017 Author Share Posted October 5, 2017 First flakes in 2 weeks. Even some high elevation lake effect snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 I might get my remnant tropical system afterall this year. NAM/Euro show a very soggy and western track right across WNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Get em every few years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 18 hours ago, tim123 said: Get em every few years Depending on how we quantify the way that it affects our area, the return interval of moderate or significant impact seems more like 5-7 years. Off the top of my head I can think of Sandy (2012), ike (2008), and Frances (2004.) Irene (2011) caused some decent winds and waves on Ontario but that was about it. The very fast forward speed of Nate should keep him quite juicy as he moves through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 Couple inches of rain. Looks like we will be returning to a active wet pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, tim123 said: Couple inches of rain. Looks like we will be returning to a active wet pattern Funny for the last couple days it looked like the heaviest rain was going to be to the east of Buffalo (more towards your area). Now it looks like the heaviest will fall just to our west however even Buffalo looks to get a solid 1-2”. If we get more than 2” we could start having some flooding problem but less than that should be a welcome drink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 9, 2017 Author Share Posted October 9, 2017 Got the rain catcher outside to see how much falls for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 8 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Got the rain catcher outside to see how much falls for this event. Only 0.65” in the gauge here... we’ll be lucky if we get reach 1” total as the back edge of the rain looks like it’ll be here within a couple hours. Just to our west over the Niagara Peninsula they’ll have no problem hitting 2”. Looks like models were just about right on, perhaps a tiny bit too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 9, 2017 Author Share Posted October 9, 2017 4 hours ago, WesterlyWx said: Only 0.65” in the gauge here... we’ll be lucky if we get reach 1” total as the back edge of the rain looks like it’ll be here within a couple hours. Just to our west over the Niagara Peninsula they’ll have no problem hitting 2”. Looks like models were just about right on, perhaps a tiny bit too far east. Ended up with 1.31" in the gauge here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 9, 2017 Author Share Posted October 9, 2017 Euro Seasonal models are out. Southeast Ridge as is typical in La Nina. If these forecasts come to fruition it would be a fun winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Euro Seasonal models are out. Southeast Ridge as is typical in La Nina. If these forecasts come to fruition it would be a fun winter. Would be about average to slightly above average temps and a good deal above average precipitation? If so sign me up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Ended up with 1.31" in the gauge here. Yeah that final push of rain really added up quick here. Finished with 1.44” . Not bad. Spot on by the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 2.3 at Kroc. Winter looks to be stormy I think and hit hard after a warm fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 Roc Ended up with 5th heaviest 24 hour October rainfall since 1873. 2.39" A noteworthy rain/tropical event. A perfect rainy windy fall day, too bad it had to be on Columbus Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 October Storm Night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 13, 2017 Author Share Posted October 13, 2017 Definitely up there on my list too. Can't believe we got that much snow so early in October in lower elevations. Has to be once in century type stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 4 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Definitely up there on my list too. Can't believe we got that much snow so early in October in lower elevations. Has to be once in century type stuff. I can’t believe it’s been 11 years, holy smokes. I remember it like it was yesterday. Certainly don’t think we’ll ever see a storm like that again in our lifetimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 15, 2017 Author Share Posted October 15, 2017 Positive PNA coming at end of month into beginning of November. Usually leads to through in East, evident in most ENS. First measurable for higher elevations and tug if any precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 Some sever storms later today. Low top squall line coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 Nasty line starting near cleveland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 Warning for buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Warning for buffalo. 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Warning for buffalo. Nasty nasty line moving in from West Seneca to North Tonawanda. 60mph gust for sure. About to eat smacked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 Still some sun here in roc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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