CAPE Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 19 hours ago, losetoa6 said: Just got down to OC for the big car show and it's just fantastic outside tonight.. You should come to the Ridgely car show on the 15th of October. It has really grown over the years and its an amazing event for a quaint small town on the upper Eastern shore. Check it out. I usually go- only 3 miles from my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 It really is incredible. This is a dry year for this part of the country. In the Central Plains they are just getting destroyed by rain event after rain event after rain event after rain event after rain event after rain event. In our part of the country, its the dry season, and miraculously enough, Nature always finds a way to side strongly with that wonderful quality that we often refer to as PERSISTENCE. I remember earlier this high sun season, Bob Chill saying that if we manage to get on the eastern side of a tropical system it would be more fun than if the tropical entity were passing to the east of us. Now, I am not bashing Bob Chill in any way, shape, or form. The guy is a NINJA JEDI when it comes to pattern recognition and meteorology, every single time. He's got the Gift. It is just that I happen to live in such a horrible place. Tropical systems pass to my east, its dry. Nate will pass to my WEST, unfortunately WELL TO MY WEST. This year, it seems that we always find a way to consistently not get hit by these systems. I wish to G-d and to the Goddess, that I lived on a small island in the Caribbean that took a direct hit from a Cat 5 hurricane, in the Right Front Quadrant, with a wonderful 45 foot storm surge, 80 foot waves on top of the surge, driven by 210 mph sustained winds. There would be no more persistence of calm weather for me there, not any more. But, Reality Is, that I live in Dale City. Nate's remnants will pass well west. I'll be fortunate to see a quarter inch of rain, while the mountains may easily exceed a foot of fresh, life giving rainfall without even breakin' a sweat. This is our life. We are in a Nina. Its going to stay dry, and its going to stay milder than normal all fall and winter. This global warming and climate change WILL kill us all, every last one of us by the time it is done. It does not matter whether the remnants pass to our east or to our west. We Always FAIL, and we know how to Fail like a Boss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 You're so weird^. It's cool though. I like weird people lol. Don't worry, Jeb. You'll be dancing in puddles and gusty winds by Monday, and then again all winter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 I have a friend who has to make the call as to whether to cancel a huge outdoor event on Sunday afternoon. She's leaning to yes, but desperate for additional input, so she's asking me, and now I'm asking y'all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Comprehensive 4-0 win by the US last night. Calmed a lot of nerves, but we need to take that form into Trinidad and book ourselves a spot in Russia! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 4 hours ago, jacindc said: I have a friend who has to make the call as to whether to cancel a huge outdoor event on Sunday afternoon. She's leaning to yes, but desperate for additional input, so she's asking me, and now I'm asking y'all. What are the times of the event and when does the call have to be made by? eta: GFS trend for tomorrow evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 What are the times of the event and when does the call have to be made by? eta: GFS trend for tomorrow eveningThanks. I told her she can't win no matter what. It's mid-afternoon, big outdoor grilling shindig. I think they're going to cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Thanks. I told her she can't win no matter what. It's mid-afternoon, big outdoor grilling shindig. I think they're going to cancel.Oh, it's in Annandale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Rain streamers already forming over the mountains, and over I 81. They are going to get absolutely CLOBBERED with rain, even tonight. I 95 will be breezy very warm and partly cloudy into Sunday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 16 hours ago, dailylurker said: You're so weird^. It's cool though. I like weird people lol. Don't worry, Jeb. You'll be dancing in puddles and gusty winds by Monday, and then again all winter lol Weird is the new cool lol. I hope I get lots of rain this winter, Nina doesnt help that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 I want one of these https://twitter.com/NWSBoston/status/917374100787552256 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 Figures it doesn't rain for weeks and then when I have tree work scheduled its gonna rain all week. Not to mention my grass is still growing like its early May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=lwx&product=N0R&loop=yes I am not surprised. Central Virginia WILL get to HOG all of the rain. Some of that rain is falling at 2 inches per hour, with a hell of a LOT more for them on the way. That will NOT hit us. Northern Virginia will learn to make do with occasional light drizzle later today. That's okay, because even though we will not get measurable rainfall this week, I just happen to have a scanning electron microscope. I can and will track rainfall accumulations in the nanometer realm. All the same, my heart is breaking over all of the rain that is only about 50 miles south of me. It might as well be halfway around the world, because I am being denied and I will be denied my heavy rain accompanied by battleship gray skies. When will I learn that we are in a Nina, that this means DRY weather for the Mid Atlantic, and that it will average warmer than normal throughout the life of the La Nina? Those that get the rain, they sure know how to HOG all of it, every last drop, and they HOG LIKE A BOSS. We fail like a boss. When all is said and done, at the end of the rainy day in Central VA, they'll come back and taunt poor rain-starved Jeb with tales of all of the rain they got, and of the frantic water rescues that the rain provoked, while all i can ever do, is to cry oceans and oceans of tears into my beer. Thats all I ever do. Ninas in the Mid Atlantic are Ram Tough! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 I am starting to feel pains in my chest, thinking about rushing to the ER for a possible heart attack --- all because I am in severe terminal SHOCK over the very real possibility that it just might RAIN in Dale City tonight. THAT'S just how dry it has been in Northern Virginia. The northern tier of states have been getting rained to death. They will get storm after storm after storm after storm after storm after storm and will be MUCH above normal for rain, then they will get snowed in to death. Many people this winter up north, freezing to near death in the deep snow up there and bitter cold, will long for just one day of Washington DC's mild temperatures and dry weather. I predict that the population around the Washington Metropolitan Region will balloon by 14000 percent by 2021. Housing construction is going to explode in this region, year over year over year. There will be an OUTER outer Beltway constructed beginning in the early 2020s. Dale City will be INSIDE this newer outer beltway. Baltimore, DC, Fredericksburg, eastern West Virginia, Delaware and Philly will begin to merge in the mid 2030s - it will all be one HUGE superultramegalopolis. Climate change is going to cause our average weather to become much drier and much warmer and it will sharply accelerate. You'll see many storm weary Northerners moving to the DC area for lucrative jobs and for the incredibly benign, warm, dry and healthful weather we enjoy here more and more and more. Get into real estate, land values are gonna explode like you wouldnt believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 I have a new hobby, a kind of new morbid fascination. I really savor driving on I 95 and on 495 in heavy traffic in marginal weather. It is exhilarating. I like it when maverick drivers zip by me at 95 mph, within a FOOT of my car! WHAT A RUSH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! It's better than getting 27 inches of snow! This all started because I'm morbid about severe weather, then I started going up to National Harbor all the time. I LOVE 495, it is a downright crazy stretch of highway between Springfield and Oxon Hill in MD. I love it when those big truck spray me with water and I cant even see where I am going. This is one of the biggest reasons why I love severe rain weather. I love the spray that comes up off 495 as rogue trucks go by! I love those crazy rogue drivers, you know the ones that are late for work, going about 90 mph, weaving around like Speed Racer! Its a terminal rush and I love it! THIS is why I am always praying for rain, drizzle, fog and a steady northeast wind! BRING IT THE HELL ON!!!!! Blast Moshpit by Showtek at near max volume for maximum rush! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: I ALMOST opened the digital snow thread. Who knows the next time we see fantasy flakes. Still plenty of time to will this low south. #troll #weenie Almost a certainty that we see flakes in the Canaan/Davis area before the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 54 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It may look nice seeing a -nao on the panels but it's meaningless as a long lead signal in Oct. We had this same conversation in 2012,13, & 14. All three of those Octobers had a fairly persistent -NAO. Late Nov-early Dec is a different story. I really like CPC analogs for specific windows and potential events in the 2 week range. It has proven to be a pretty valuable tool in the winter. However, I don't think there is much value in rolling the analogs forward for months. Don't get me wrong though. I love the composites Mitch posted but we still a ways away from getting a bead on potential blocking (or lack there of). 33 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I have also found little value in rolling forward the analogs more than about a week outside of typical climo....by that, I mean in a frothing La Nina pattern in December, we might see a bunch of 2008, 2007, 1970, 1967, 1975 type years come up. So one might say "oh those februarys kind of sucked in the mean"....but that is basically the analogs just telling us that we are in a classic deep -PDO La Nina type pattern, something we don't need the GEFS ensemble mean to tell us anyway. We could have said the same thing just noting an ice bath in the GOA and looking ENSO. But I agree they've had some pretty good utility in identifying some storm windows within their 2 week range. Pretty sure Bob and ORH just told mitch to go fly a kite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 38 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Almost a certainty that we see flakes in the Canaan/Davis area before the end of the month. I would imagine that is pretty normal for Canaan. In fact I think it is fairly normal to see a few flakes before the end of October in Balt-DC also! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 Going to buy RadarScope today...can you add Allisonhouse feeds (lightning, etc.) in or do those come by default? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: I don't know what it is, but there is something dark deep in my soul that makes me want to say every negative thing possible about the upcoming winter. It's awful. I need snow. Yes we have noticed. Must be the reaper in you coming out. On that note, shouldn't you be pulling that thread out? After all Ji should be in shortly canceling winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 2 hours ago, mattie g said: Pretty sure Bob and ORH just told mitch to go fly a kite. I saw this post of yours after I posted again in the thread. All I did was post a link to an anolog for 8-14 weeks out and it's interpreted as me jumping on a Bastardi winter? Wth has happened to this Board? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 19 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I saw this post of yours after I posted again in the thread. All I did was post a link to an anolog for 8-14 weeks out and it's interpreted as me jumping on a Bastardi winter? Wth has happened to this Board? Lol So now you're saying we're not going to have wall to wall blocking and a big winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: So now you're saying we're not going to have wall to wall blocking and a big winter? Of course we are, I'm just not prepared to commit at this point until I get the nod from snowman19. Do you think I'm crazy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 25 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Of course we are, I'm just not prepared to commit at this point until I get the nod from snowman19. Do you think I'm crazy? Crazy? Yes, but it has nothing to do with weather. Yellowstone could erupt and black out the sun around the globe and snowman would still go warm. I'd actually be more concerned if he breaks character and goes cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 Founders Breakfast Stout is just so freaking delicious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 This nats game is kinda like watching the models during a winter storm. Right about now its a Miller B that gets it act together so PHL north jackpots and we have cold drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted October 13, 2017 Author Share Posted October 13, 2017 2 hours ago, mdhokie said: This nats game is kinda like watching the models during a winter storm. Right about now its a Miller B that gets it act together so PHL north jackpots and we have cold drizzle. PHL north got 1-2'+. We got light rain with a few sloppy flakes. Boston: 24.2" New York: 22.4" Philadelphia: 14.6" Baltimore: Trace Washington DC: Nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 Go to bed, Nats up 4-3. Wake up, Nate lose 9-8. DC sports Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 26 minutes ago, H2O said: Go to bed, Nats up 4-3. Wake up, Nate lose 9-8. DC sports Like going to bed with radar showing incoming snow, and waking up to 33 and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 Accuweather CEO is in charge of NOAA. This year keeps getting better and better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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