October Banter String

[George BM]

A string will keep it from falling apart easily. Not that they always do. It's precautionary.  

[George BM]

Well lazy, stupid me waited too long to do this so now this DOES NOT COUNT as it is late AND in the wrong thread.

IAD: 10/22

DCA: 11/17

BWI: 11/04

RIC: 12/06

7

Again. I know very well that this DOES NOT COUNT so hopefully I'm no where close to being right. 

[showmethesnow]

6 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

 

 

Thank you all for the kind words. I'm still really broken up this morning. 

The person was a veteran. After a long battle with PTSD they took their own life. Left behind a spouse and two young children. It hurts so much to think about them growing up without such an amazing parent in their life.

It is also hitting home at a time when I'm pretty close to making a major life change in the context of my relationship. I want a family, but I might have to start over to have one. 

It's not February...I don't feel rudderless...but it's hard not to be worried about the future. 

Condolences. Stay strong. If you ever need to talk just give me a holler.

[psuhoffman]

11 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

 

 

Thank you all for the kind words. I'm still really broken up this morning. 

The person was a veteran. After a long battle with PTSD they took their own life. Left behind a spouse and two young children. It hurts so much to think about them growing up without such an amazing parent in their life.

It is also hitting home at a time when I'm pretty close to making a major life change in the context of my relationship. I want a family, but I might have to start over to have one. 

It's not February...I don't feel rudderless...but it's hard not to be worried about the future. 

I'm sorry you are going through a lot of difficult things. Some things just suck and some times in our lives are just periods we have to endure and get through the best we can until better times come again.  Only thing i can suggest is talk to people. Don't suffer in silence. Let those that care help you through. They will want to be there for you. I hope there are better days ahead soon. 

[psuhoffman]

8 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The Ravens are awful. Where are the weapons?

I've always been an Eagles fan since growing up in South Jersey, but I've tried to root for the ravens as a second team since I work in Baltimore and live in the area. But the way their fans have behaved the last few weeks makes me totally indifferent. So insensitive the way the (primarily suburban fans) are behaving given the issues of Baltimore city right now. I wonder how the team can even want to play hard when their fans boo them when they pray for equality in a way that didn't involve the anthem at all. I lost all respect for those fans that's for sure. Booing a prayer...wow. Stay classy 

[George BM]

Las Vegas....wow . Thoughts and prayers for everyone affected.

[psuhoffman]

4 hours ago, George BM said:

Las Vegas....wow . Thoughts and prayers for everyone affected.

After we did nothing following Newtown...it feels almost hopeless. If that happening to little kids at Christmas time doesn't light enough fire to force the nation to deal with the problem I don't know what will. It still makes me tear up thinking about it now years later. I'm not sure what needs to happen for our leaders to take action to deal with this but it's just sad in every way. 

[MN Transplant]

Car leasing question from an idiot:

My wife and I have been talking about getting a new car.  We haven't been forced into a decision yet, but the problems with our 13 year old car are piling up.  End of the rope was this morning when the starter failed.  We don't have a good idea of what we want (Honda CRV is our main car for hauling the kid around) and we don't want to get pushed into buying something we won't care for because I insist on holding a car for 10-15 years.  Plus, technology is changing so quickly.  We are considering a lease.  It'll probably be more expensive in the end, but I think it might be worth it for us.  My main question from a leasing novice - what the hell is the down payment for?  For example, I've seen an Accord for $163/mo. with $4800 due at signing.  Is that $4800 just gone?  Is it their way of "buying down" the monthly cost of the lease?  What is their game here?

 

 

[Bob Chill]

MN, the lease "game" is all about getting a specific return over a specific period before turning the car back in and then it's sold at auction. The due at signing is just part of the transaction. Higher "due at signing" = lower monthly payments and vice versa. So you are exactly right about the "buying down" part of the transaction. 

Unless you are writing off the lease expense for a business, leases are often much more costly than just buying a car because at the end of the term you own nothing. Sure, you can buy the car at the end of the lease but that cost + the entire lease expense is much more expensive than just buying the car from day 1. 

Where it gets really ugly with leases are the condition charges when you turn it back in. Every scratch, stain, dent, and ding will be paid for when you turn in a leased car. Even tires can be included if they are "too worn" . I had a friend have to pay $2k additional at turn in because of the condition and the car wasn't even in bad condition or anything. Just basic wear and tear stuff that happens over 3 years of driving.

The ONLY attractive thing about leasing is the low monthly payment. With that comes all kinds of pitfalls like condition adjustments, gap insurance costs (if you wreck a leased car insurance won't cover the total cost of the lease), and the mileage can become an issue on the final year if you drove more than you expected. 

The smartest play for buying a car is getting a 2-3 year old car with low miles. The original owner takes the huge depreciation hit and you basically get a barely used car that will last many years. You can get great rates on certified used cars. Cap One will do 2.9% but there are many other banks that offer similar or lower rates. 

 

[Stormpc]

Sad to hear about TOM PETTY passing.  So many musicians lost over the last few years. He was one of my favorites.  

[MN Transplant]

3 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

MN, the lease "game" is all about getting a specific return over a specific period before turning the car back in and then it's sold at auction. The due at signing is just part of the transaction. Higher "due at signing" = lower monthly payments and vice versa. So you are exactly right about the "buying down" part of the transaction. 

Unless you are writing off the lease expense for a business, leases are often much more costly than just buying a car because at the end of the term you own nothing. Sure, you can buy the car at the end of the lease but that cost + the entire lease expense is much more expensive than just buying the car from day 1. 

Where it gets really ugly with leases are the condition charges when you turn it back in. Every scratch, stain, dent, and ding will be paid for when you turn in a leased car. Even tires can be included if they are "too worn" . I had a friend have to pay $2k additional at turn in because of the condition and the car wasn't even in bad condition or anything. Just basic wear and tear stuff that happens over 3 years of driving.

The ONLY attractive thing about leasing is the low monthly payment. With that comes all kinds of pitfalls like condition adjustments, gap insurance costs (if you wreck a leased car insurance won't cover the total cost of the lease), and the mileage can become an issue on the final year if you drove more than you expected. 

The smartest play for buying a car is getting a 2-3 year old car with low miles. The original owner takes the huge depreciation hit and you basically get a barely used car that will last many years. You can get great rates on certified used cars. Cap One will do 2.9% but there are many other banks that offer similar or lower rates. 

 

The problem I've had with the plan to buy used is that the good cars don't have as much of a depreciation hit.  According to listings, my exact CRV has lost less than 20% in 3 years.

[H2O]

what a crap monday

 

[showmethesnow]

38 minutes ago, H2O said:

what a crap monday

 

Actually had a good moment myself. Just got our new 38 ft destination/travel trailer delivered. But of course as I was pulling out our old trailer I was paying so much attention to not hitting the deck with it I missed seeing the rocks of our neighbors flower bed. Ended up snapping the grey waste line underneath. So needless to say that took a bite out of the moment. Will head up their shortly to block everything up and build steps to the patio entrance we have. Not to mention a slew of other things I will have to do.

[mattie g]

15 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

MN, the lease "game" is all about getting a specific return over a specific period before turning the car back in and then it's sold at auction. The due at signing is just part of the transaction. Higher "due at signing" = lower monthly payments and vice versa. So you are exactly right about the "buying down" part of the transaction. 

Unless you are writing off the lease expense for a business, leases are often much more costly than just buying a car because at the end of the term you own nothing. Sure, you can buy the car at the end of the lease but that cost + the entire lease expense is much more expensive than just buying the car from day 1. 

Where it gets really ugly with leases are the condition charges when you turn it back in. Every scratch, stain, dent, and ding will be paid for when you turn in a leased car. Even tires can be included if they are "too worn" . I had a friend have to pay $2k additional at turn in because of the condition and the car wasn't even in bad condition or anything. Just basic wear and tear stuff that happens over 3 years of driving.

The ONLY attractive thing about leasing is the low monthly payment. With that comes all kinds of pitfalls like condition adjustments, gap insurance costs (if you wreck a leased car insurance won't cover the total cost of the lease), and the mileage can become an issue on the final year if you drove more than you expected. 

The smartest play for buying a car is getting a 2-3 year old car with low miles. The original owner takes the huge depreciation hit and you basically get a barely used car that will last many years. You can get great rates on certified used cars. Cap One will do 2.9% but there are many other banks that offer similar or lower rates. 

 

Great post, Bob. Really informative.

The wife and I have been throwing around the idea of getting a new car now that the G #2 is here. It's amazing how much space two car seats can take up in a CRV, and since we take so many long car trips, our pup doesn't have any room in the car any more! That's not the only reason though. I've got a 2005 Jetta (new model) that - while still running really well - will need to be replaced at some point, and the CRV just doesn't have the room that we expect we'd like to have in the not-too-distant future. We've been toying with the idea of a 2- to 3-year-old certified pre-owned car, which given the price point of a lot of the cars we're interested in, would seem the best way to go. I've been told that you can often negotiate good warranty and/or service deals on a used car, so it's definitely something we need to seriously consider.

[smokeybandit]

Some good info on leasing I didn't really think of.  We're closing in on needing a new car, and my wife's car is a 2005 that only recently hit 100k miles (which includes a few long-distance drives).  She's got a very short commute and I was thinking a lease might be good.  But that gives me more to think about.

[Bob Chill]

14 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

The problem I've had with the plan to buy used is that the good cars don't have as much of a depreciation hit.  According to listings, my exact CRV has lost less than 20% in 3 years.

My business partner has a wholesale dealers license so I have access to the Manheim auction site. I checked 2015 CRV's with under 30k this morning. Average price is around 17k. I have no idea what they retail for but retail prices are very negotiable. Dealers know what they can sell at auction so you can't negotiate below wholesale but you can usually get a car on the lot for $1,500 or so over wholesale. This applies to trade ins on dealer lots and not re-sellers though. Re-sellers buy at auction so they need make some money. Dealers take trades below auction value and then decide to either wholesale it at auction or sell it on the lot. As long as they sell it above wholesale they view the deal as "good" for their bottom line. 

I bought my Suburban at a wholesale auction in 2004. It was a 2000 with 48k and I got it for $16k. Still driving is 13 years later. They were going for 22-25k at dealers at the time. 

 

I can check any car in just a couple of seconds so if anyone wants to know the real wholesale prices of cars/trucks just let me know. Glad to help. 

[CAPE]

On 10/2/2017 at 3:33 PM, Bob Chill said:

MN, the lease "game" is all about getting a specific return over a specific period before turning the car back in and then it's sold at auction. The due at signing is just part of the transaction. Higher "due at signing" = lower monthly payments and vice versa. So you are exactly right about the "buying down" part of the transaction. 

Unless you are writing off the lease expense for a business, leases are often much more costly than just buying a car because at the end of the term you own nothing. Sure, you can buy the car at the end of the lease but that cost + the entire lease expense is much more expensive than just buying the car from day 1. 

Where it gets really ugly with leases are the condition charges when you turn it back in. Every scratch, stain, dent, and ding will be paid for when you turn in a leased car. Even tires can be included if they are "too worn" . I had a friend have to pay $2k additional at turn in because of the condition and the car wasn't even in bad condition or anything. Just basic wear and tear stuff that happens over 3 years of driving.

The ONLY attractive thing about leasing is the low monthly payment. With that comes all kinds of pitfalls like condition adjustments, gap insurance costs (if you wreck a leased car insurance won't cover the total cost of the lease), and the mileage can become an issue on the final year if you drove more than you expected. 

The smartest play for buying a car is getting a 2-3 year old car with low miles. The original owner takes the huge depreciation hit and you basically get a barely used car that will last many years. You can get great rates on certified used cars. Cap One will do 2.9% but there are many other banks that offer similar or lower rates. 

 

Bingo. I have been doing this forever. I have had great success. I bought one off lease- some lady drove it, perfect condition.. 3 years old with 38k miles. I refuse to buy a new car again.

[BTRWx]

Despite his company's issues, what I've always admired about WB's JB is his ability to asses current weather, compare it to similar analog patterns, and provide detailed analyses before looking at a single nwp map.  His competitors are still playing catchup imo.

Banter can be positive right?

[RDM]

The number of posts, or ah ahem, the lack thereof is testimony to what must be one of the more boring stretches of meteorological nothing we've experienced in these parts for some time.  During most of the year there would be endless raves about the cool nights and nearly perfect days.  But I'm about bored to death here.  Will probably be longing for this in a couple of months when it's in the 30's and raining....   I don't dare mention any of the white stuff yet. - it's just the glint of a dream at this point, especially after last year's gloom, despair and agony.

[BTRWx]

 

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Those models jump all over and follow climo usually so they mostly don't add much except conversation imo. But this is the long range thread so it's worth a mention when a data point comes out. Even a less significant one. 

Now before things devolve into our annual fight over what's worth talking about and what's not... this is a weather forum. And this is the long range seasonal winter thread. Imho anything related to that is fair game. You wanna discuss the cfs or cansips go. Talk about the old school stuff like caterpillars and squirrels have at it. Bring up the farmers almanac sure. I'm not going to weigh it all but what's the harm?  There are serious awful problems in the world today and this isn't one of them. Most of us come in here for fun and to get away from that stuff and because we love weather. Discussing those things isn't going to harm anyone. If you don't like it ignore it. 

In the winter of course I would rather be discussing things in the short range.  Often I step back in the close range not because I don't like it but because we have a multitude of skilled posters who cover it quite well and things happen at such speed in the nowcast period that between work and coaching and a toddler I just can't keep up.  But I would rather be tracking something close and those storms that just pop up 72 hours out are the best. Less angst waiting for it to fail. Omg the blizzard 2 years ago was torture in that regard.  But when there is nothing going on inside 5 days I will look to the long range for hints at when things could get more favorable.  And yes I do that with a lean towards optimism because I simply don't feel like being depressed all the time over frozen water that I have no control over.  Life's too short.  We all know long range stuff is low probability.  So if you think it's useless and a total waste of time good for you.  Perhaps say it once and then let the rest of us have our vice and enjoy ourselves.  Thank you....

PS...this wasn't directed at any one person.   No one take this personally. Just felt what was coming and thought maybe we could not go there again this year.  

 

Anyone know of a weather forum that advocates for more realism?  (Serious question, because that's what I'm here for.)

[mappy]

On 10/1/2017 at 11:28 AM, WxWatcher007 said:

Thank you all for the kind words. I'm still really broken up this morning. 

The person was a veteran. After a long battle with PTSD they took their own life. Left behind a spouse and two young children. It hurts so much to think about them growing up without such an amazing parent in their life.

It is also hitting home at a time when I'm pretty close to making a major life change in the context of my relationship. I want a family, but I might have to start over to have one. 

It's not February...I don't feel rudderless...but it's hard not to be worried about the future. 

hi, friend. i haven't checked in for a few days and just seeing this. So terribly sorry for your loss. And the issues at home. HUGS. Holla if you need to chat. xoxo

[mattie g]

8 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Looking at the Enso/PDO combo I am not sure I like the match with 2008. I will try my best to explain why. In 07/08 we saw an earlier onset of negative departures with Enso (March 2007, Aug 2017). We also saw it reach moderate status by Sept of that year whereas this Sept it will clock in, at best, as a very weak Nina but in more likelihood it will be a cold neutral (Noaa doesn't have the figures out yet). And now looking at the current sst's it looks as if the cold anomalies have backed off somewhat as well. So barring a strong reversal in the anomaly trends in the next week or so I have to question whether we even see an index value over a very weak Nina for October vs 2007 values falling just short of a strong Nina. So in a nutshell, 07/08 had much more time to establish a Nina pattern and a strong one at that heading into the winter whereas at this time chances are decent that we won't even reach weak status.

Now looking at PDO for both years we are seeing the same disconnect between the years on the PDO progression as well. Looking over the transition from neg to pos or pos to neg over the years since 1951 it seems that quite often that transition between states has a period of muddled signals where it bounces back and forth between neg and positive states before finally it latches onto where it wants to go and the +PDO/-PDO signal starts to become a driver of the weather patterns. Looking at 2007 we saw the muddled transition period with the mixed signal occur through Aug and then finally flip to neg in the fall where it became a player in driving the winter pattern.. This year we are only now entering the transition period in fall so at worst we are looking at a neutral PDO and that is not to say that weather memory doesn't still see the +PDO regime. The quickest I see at this point of a -PDO and its influence on the weather pattern taking hold would be mid to late winter and I have to question whether it would be too late at that point to have a noticably impact on our winter. 

So basically what we had in 07/08 was an earlier onset of Nina reaching strong status heading into winter. And we also had a moderate -PDO set up in the fall and progress through the winter. When the PDO state lines up with the ENSO it has a tendency to strengthen the ENSO state, in this case the Nina. So my belief is that what we saw happen in 07/08 was a firmly established and strong Nina pattern being bolstered by a -PDO during a key time (Fall) when the winter weather patterns are becoming established. This timing and strength of the Nina basically over rode all other signals that could have had an influence on the pattern through the winter including the large neg departures we saw with the QBO. On the other hand this years ENSO/PDO entering the critical time of Fall are for the most part Neutral with no clear signal shining through. So with us now entering the heart of -QBO departures as we enter fall and winter I would believe that this signal would shine through. Which tends to weaken the jet and produce blocking.

Now the above is one of several things that I incorporated into my composites that I posted a few days ago that I didn't mention and probably should have but was pressed for time and I had thought the post was already to wordy as it was. To me, not only are the current values of a state important but also the progression and timing as well. My key focus was on the fall, where we build the base from which the winter weather patterns will be established from, and how we got there. Maybe it was happenstance but I did notice while doing up the composites that several years that had a somewhat strong and established Nina, were spitting out solutions for the winter that featured a +NAO even though we saw a large neg QBO departure. Maybe next month, after new indice values come out, I will dive a little deeper into it and see if there is a legitimate connection.

Now as far as 11/12 I think that is an even worse match then 07/08 for the exact reasons mentioned above. Now if we see a huge negative spike this month with ENSO/PDO then I might reconsider my position but at this point I think it is border line as to whether that would have a major impact to the winter, that is if my thoughts on the matter have any validity.

 

Enso

2007   0.71   0.32  -0.03  -0.23  -0.29  -0.41  -0.54  -0.84  -1.13  -1.40  -1.54  -1.60
 2008  -1.59  -1.42 

2017  -0.29  -0.07   0.14   0.28   0.38   0.37   0.15  -0.15 

PDO

2007     0.01   0.04  -0.36   0.16  -0.10   0.09   0.78   0.50  -0.36  -1.45  -1.08  -0.58
2008    -1.00  -0.77 

2017     0.77   0.70   0.74   1.12   0.88   0.79   0.10  

 

 

 

Maybe they don't have validity, but as long as you're an advocate for realism, you're all good.

[showmethesnow]

19 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Maybe they don't have validity, but as long as you're an advocate for realism, you're all good.

That was my morning belly laugh. 

Have no idea what he is searching for. This is probably one of the best sites out there for keeping it real and the weenies at bay and yet he still finds issues with it. With all the things he has petitioned to have banned I don't know what there would be left for us to discuss anyway. Think what he probably wants is a forum devoted strictly to professionals with no input from the hobbyists. The only reason he probably hasn't done that already is that he wouldn't be able to post then. And he does love him some posting.

 

[mattie g]

20 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

That was my morning belly laugh. 

Have no idea what he is searching for. This is probably one of the best sites out there for keeping it real and the weenies at bay and yet he still finds issues with it. With all the things he has petitioned to have banned I don't know what there would be left for us to discuss anyway. Think what he probably wants is a forum devoted strictly to professionals with no input from the hobbyists. The only reason he probably hasn't done that already is that he wouldn't be able to post then. And he does love him some posting.

Couldn't have stated it any better. This place would be a ghost town if we heeded even half of the suggestions that have been given. It would be a fantastic echo chamber though.

[showmethesnow]

2 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Latest Gfs really looks weak sauce.  The gulf low is strung out and weak and the remnants appear less robust. North of i70 gets basically sprinkles..hopefully just a hiccup.

I can save you the trouble of following the models on what we will see with the remnants. I predict copious amounts of rain and tree snapping winds. How do I know this you might ask? Well it's quite simple. My wife and I are going camping tomorrow through Tuesday. 

[yoda]

On 10/1/2017 at 11:28 AM, WxWatcher007 said:

 

 

 

Thank you all for the kind words. I'm still really broken up this morning. 

The person was a veteran. After a long battle with PTSD they took their own life. Left behind a spouse and two young children. It hurts so much to think about them growing up without such an amazing parent in their life.

It is also hitting home at a time when I'm pretty close to making a major life change in the context of my relationship. I want a family, but I might have to start over to have one. 

It's not February...I don't feel rudderless...but it's hard not to be worried about the future. 

I know I'm late in saying this, but I'm sorry to hear this.  If you need someone to talk to as others have also said, I'm only a PM away. 

 

[BTRWx]

On 10/1/2017 at 11:43 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

Thanks for the kind words.

Sorry to hear the sad news.  I've had similar circumstances over the last couple years and can imagine what you're going through.  We all must stay strong. <3

[mappy]

I wish I had read the LR Winter Disco thread sooner. The volcanic discussion was top notch. Good work @Bob Chill

[Jebman]

I am sincerely sorry to Mappy for this forecast, but the western VA mountains will get lots and lots of rain in the next few days. The track of Nate's remnants should spare eastern VA, including Dale City and Washington DC, from heavy rain. We will get our heavy rain in Jan and Feb, in the heart of the low sun season, instead of snow.

The track of Nate's remnants will be far enough west, that Dale City will see variable cloudiness only on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday with an outside chance of light drizzle. A light shower or two cannot be ruled out.

 

Most of the heavy rain will waterboard the mountains. It is likely to be disastrous despite the antecedent dry conditions. Orographic forcing will increase the rainfall which will already be efficient. The weather will continue hazy warm and very humid throughout most of next week as La Nina continues to exert (warmer and drier than normal) and the effects of advanced global warming and of climate change continue and intensify with time. It will feel like mid August.

[Wonderdog]

Looks like 30 hrs of precipitation for Gainesville starting early Sunday.