EastCoast NPZ Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 16 minutes ago, Jebman said: On radar, yellows are moving east and are going POOF! Gone. Should be light fast moving sprinkles around midnight, then breezy and warm. Ditto for the rest of the week on into what should be mainly a dry weekend (except for the Midwest, AGAIN lol). Doing nothing but going poof on my doorstep so far. As usual, no such problems with under-performing winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 FWIW, with all of this concern about what's dying out as it comes east this evening, most hi-res guidance correctly shows this first batch falling apart as it comes east, with a more pronounced line later tonight. It's best depicted in the 18z NAM nest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 It had just started raining when I left for Roanoke at 10 am this morning. When I got home at 9 pm the rain was easing up, but looking at the CoCoRaHS gauge on deck I'd estimate 2.5-3.0 inches fell in the 11 hour period here. It POURED while I was in Roanoke this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 Getting some decent rains over the last half-hour or so. Wind-driven rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 Tonight's event might be bigger than all tropical combined this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 impressive rain rates with this cell over southern Howard County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 LWX's map hasn't been that colorful in ... months? Steady rain and breeze here in upper NW. That counts as ***weather!*** these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 19 minutes ago, BTRWx said: Is there any way to extrapolate whether wind obs from apps are likely to reach the surface or not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 12 minutes ago, BTRWx said: Is there any way to extrapolate whether wind obs from apps are likely to reach the surface or not? uh, aren't those values the cell motion (and not the wind speed)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 .08 so far. Big gust to 21 earlier. I can't contain myself. Seriously, it's nice to get some rain and have cooler temps in the near term. Very disappointed in the fall foliage though. Very bland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 BTR made an oopsie Anytime you see a cell ID, that's more than likely cell motion not wind. You need to check velocity for wind speed potential. Not to mention, for 77kt wind you wouldn't be seeing a lack of LSRs. 77kts would be widespread destruction along the path. Derecho style wind. Max potential will be around 50mph probably. Further, those winds are not going to be out of the north either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 3 hours ago, Stormpc said: .08 so far. Big gust to 21 earlier. I can't contain myself. Seriously, it's nice to get some rain and have cooler temps in the near term. Very disappointed in the fall foliage though. Very bland. And very brown/shriveling. The showers around Arlington VA gave maybe a quarter-inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 0.29” and a gust to 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bodhi Cove Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 Bay water rising fast. Turned off power to pier, which is 80% under water. High tide is still 4 hours away. Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 0.66" overnight. Wind gusted to 31 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 .49" overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 A little wind, a few drops. On to the next one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 .42" here, and consider myself lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 A good guess on my part last night. 2.82 in gauge when I emptied at 7am. Highest wind gust was 29 mph. Currently 53.0 and mostly cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 .43 total. That's ok, I guess. A real non-event across the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Have to start casually watching the latter half of the weekend for some action. Looks like all of the guidance has another event with a potential tropical connection. I'm buying the potential for a widespread soaker Sunday, although I'm a little cautious based on last night's event looking a lot better 5 days out too..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 10 hours ago, high risk said: uh, aren't those values the cell motion (and not the wind speed)? I thought more times than not the surface shows similar? (at least with Radarscope) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 22 minutes ago, high risk said: I'm buying the potential for a widespread soaker Sunday, although I'm a little cautious based on last night's event looking a lot better 5 days out too..... Ens mean looks better for the upcoming event. Unless I missed some runs, ens mean precip never looked like a strong signal for the overnight deal. The GEFS is showing over 1" mean precip for the weekend. That's pretty good for d5+ This event is a bit different in that there is a very strong closed ULL dropping into the MW and a subtropical moisture feed/energy interacting. Good dynamics but it needs to line up right. It's going to be a narrow band of heavy precip. "Someone" is probably going to get a nice soaker. 0z euro says 95 and east is the bullseye. I'm sure ops will move the stripe around every 6-12 hours. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 Hmmmm Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... In general, the latest available medium range model output suggests that a digging short wave impulse may contribute to further amplification of large-scale troughing east of the Rockies late this week. This feature may then quickly pivot eastward toward the Atlantic Seaboard through the weekend, accompanied by a reinforcing cold intrusion across the Plains/Mississippi Valley, into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Ahead of this front, models indicate that potential exists for significant surface cyclogenesis along a remnant prior front returning northward toward the southern Atlantic coast. It appears that this could be accompanied by a rapid and substantive inland moisture return off the western Atlantic, and (across at least portions of southern Florida) the Caribbean. It is possible that associated warm sector destabilization in the presence of strengthening shear may lead to at least some increase in severe weather potential across parts of the southern through middle Atlantic Coast region. At the present time, guidance seems to maximize this potential early Sunday across parts of eastern North Carolina into the Virginia Tidewater. However, the spread within the ensemble output concerning these developments remains sizable, and uncertainties still appear too large to allow a forecast of 15 percent severe probabilities at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 12z GFS looks decent for some possible storms and heavy rain Sunday afternoon into evening (see hrs 126-132) Monday highs look to be around 50... sounding at DCA for 18z MON shows temp 52 degrees (from TT)... upslope snow showers possible late Sunday night into Mon morning if enough moisture left, which 12z GFS shows there is at hr 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 Once again, 12z GFS tries for a major cold blast entering the NW High Plains (SD/ND/WY/NE/CO/MT) at the very end of the run... temps in the single digits and below zero show up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 17 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z GFS looks decent for some possible storms and heavy rain Sunday afternoon into evening (see hrs 126-132) Monday highs look to be around 50... sounding at DCA for 18z MON shows temp 52 degrees (from TT)... upslope snow showers possible late Sunday night into Mon morning if enough moisture left, which 12z GFS shows there is at hr 144 12z GGEM has the same... perhaps a bit stronger in the storm/heavy rain department... at 126 12z GGEM has a 997mb SLP on the W VA/E WV border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 What a beautiful day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 Some light snow looks to be possible in higher elevations Wed night per LWX afternoon AFD: .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A third cold front, this one weaker than both of its predecessors, will cross the region late Wednesday afternoon and evening. This third front precedes the strong upper trough. Thus, Wednesday will start out with lingering clouds from the overnight frontal passage, turn out mostly sunny for a time, then see increasing clouds late. Temperatures will be cooler, with highs staying below normal for the first time in what feels like ages (but will actually only be the first time since the middle of last week). As the front and upper trough crosses the region overnight, some upslope showers look likely along the Allegany Front, and at higher elevations, some light snow looks likely, though accumulations are uncertain. Further east, a lot of uncertainty whether anything can reach the ground, but a few models suggest some showers might make it into the Blue Ridge or even VA Piedmont, so something to watch. Lows will be much cooler, with 40s and 30s common - could be some frost if there is enough clearing, but clouds may limit that potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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