EastCoast NPZ Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 Another very warm one. 76F. Getting real sick of hiking in shorts and sweating. Every weekend is the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 Got to 79 this afternoon. Enough already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 This weather is awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: This weather is awesome. Yea, I totally agree. I did fall weeding and cleanup yesterday and washed, polished, and sealed the paint on my wife's car today. Broke a little sweat but it was so damn nice out with low humidity and nice breeze that I didn't care. Shorts and flip flop weather is on the way out shortly. I'm glad I spent most of the last 2 days outside. Freekin perfect 10 kinda stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 Marginal risk from SPC for overnight Monday. Looks like a convective line will roll through in the middle of the night or very early morning. There are some impressive winds above the surface, but as is common here with fall events, there may not be much if any instability to take advantage. Still, there may be a little bit of sfc-based cape to work with, so the 5% area for now looks reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, I totally agree. I did fall weeding and cleanup yesterday and washed, polished, and sealed the paint on my wife's car today. Broke a little sweat but it was so damn nice out with low humidity and nice breeze that I didn't care. Shorts and flip flop weather is on the way out shortly. I'm glad I spent most of the last 2 days outside. Freekin perfect 10 kinda stuff. I’m with you. I love winter weather ... in winter. I’m a Nov 20 to March 15 guy. Outside of that I want sun and 75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 Big time fog In the low spots this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 32 minutes ago, Stormpc said: Big time fog In the low spots this morning. A few counties have school delays as a result Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 nice weekend to open the house up. a little too warm for my liking in october, but can't complain too loudly. foggy this am. woo storms tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 44 minutes ago, smokeybandit said: A few counties have school delays as a result Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 11 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, I totally agree. I did fall weeding and cleanup yesterday and washed, polished, and sealed the paint on my wife's car today. Broke a little sweat but it was so damn nice out with low humidity and nice breeze that I didn't care. Shorts and flip flop weather is on the way out shortly. I'm glad I spent most of the last 2 days outside. Freekin perfect 10 kinda stuff. I took the day off on Friday to get some stuff done...stuff which included brewing my first beer since March. It was so nice to get back in the saddle! I also busted out the lawnmower to give the lawn a trim and pick up leaves, trimmed up the garden for the last week or two of the season, and generally cleaned up outside. Also had a the neighborhood Halloween parade and party down by the pool. Older daughter loved it! It was also nice to be able to open up the house while I made one of my bi-annual batches of chicken stock, along with a bunch of canned salsa. House gets steamy when we make any of these items, so opening up the house is a must! Perfect weather to take advantage of the long weekend. Not sure how anyone can complain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 1 hour ago, mappy said: nice weekend to open the house up. a little too warm for my liking in october, but can't complain too loudly. foggy this am. woo storms tonight? Meh storms, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 Looks like 12z NAM is suggesting just enough instability overnight (03z to 09z) for the possibility of a few spinups Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 I was hoping for a bit more of a soaker with this event, but the recent mesoscale modeling is showing more of a diminished area of rain over the LWX area. I feel like we never maximize the wind potential from the SE ahead of a front, but that isn't grounded in anything fact-based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 6 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: I was hoping for a bit more of a soaker with this event, but the recent mesoscale modeling is showing more of a diminished area of rain over the LWX area. I feel like we never maximize the wind potential from the SE ahead of a front, but that isn't grounded in anything fact-based. I am expecting no more than a five hundred twelfth of an inch of rain. It just might be time for the nanoscope lab equipment again in order to measure these light rains. ----------------------------And the drier than normal, warmer then normal La Nina beat goes on........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 Of course, New England will get a foot of fresh, life-giving rain from this same system. They wont need scanning electron microscopes to try and measure light rains in the nano domain. They'll be using yardsticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 13 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: I was hoping for a bit more of a soaker with this event, but the recent mesoscale modeling is showing more of a diminished area of rain over the LWX area. I feel like we never maximize the wind potential from the SE ahead of a front, but that isn't grounded in anything fact-based. The problem with the rain potential is that it originally looked like we'd get some overrunning followed by a few hours in the frontal band, but it's turning out to be a quick hitter with a window of a few hours late at night. I still think that a lot of people will see heavy rain; it will just be very fast-moving and subject to runoff. You're correct that we rarely score on these fall high shear/low cape events, but the forecast soundings suggest that mixing some of those stronger wind speeds down the ground isn't a total pipe dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, high risk said: The problem with the rain potential is that it originally looked like we'd get some overrunning followed by a few hours in the frontal band, but it's turning out to be a quick hitter with a window of a few hours late at night. I still think that a lot of people will see heavy rain; it will just be very fast-moving and subject to runoff. You're correct that we rarely score on these fall high shear/low cape events, but the forecast soundings suggest that mixing some of those stronger wind speeds down the ground isn't a total pipe dream. Agree.. seems to be a good amount of turning as well (see the curved hodographs) so I wouldn't be surprised to see a TW or two issued by LWX tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 30 minutes ago, yoda said: Agree.. seems to be a good amount of turning as well (see the curved hodographs) so I wouldn't be surprised to see a TW or two issued by LWX tonight We'll see - but I'm not sure there will be enough surface based instability. But a few CYA tornado warnings could definitely be possible. Wouldn't be surprised to see an isolated spot ot two get severe level gusts - but most should be 50mph or below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 The HRRR seems far more reasonable with winds than the NAM Nest. Unfortunately, it also shows that nice shield of rain tapering off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 12z Euro still has pretty heavy precip getting here, with most of the area over 0.5". However, the HRRR has trended worse and worse. The 18z has 0.1"-0.2" in Fairfax Co. and lower amounts headed east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 Crazy how that huge blob of precip looking to be heading for us goes poof. Typical I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 51 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Can’t wait for the ole wintertime moisture robbery. If we have a Nina climo type pattern you will be very satisfied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 Tornado Watch up for extreme SW portion of LWX CWA... wind advisory up till 6am for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 I've had 0.65" for the month- from 3 different "events". Expecting another tenth or so tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 Getting quite windy. Hopefully we get a little something out of it other than wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 759 PM EDT MON OCT 23 2017 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Highland County in western Virginia... Southwestern Pendleton County in eastern West Virginia... * Until 845 PM EDT * At 757 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 10 miles northwest of Burnsville, or 11 miles south of Greenbank, moving northeast at 50 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Monterey, Hightown, Clover Creek, Doe Hill, Bolar, Mill Gap, New Hampden, Harper, Palo Alto, Mustoe, Mcdowell, Blue Grass, Possum Trot, Vanderpool, Moyers, Sirons Mill and Sugar Grove. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 7 minutes ago, smokeybandit said: Def better than the earlier HRRR runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 On radar, yellows are moving east and are going POOF! Gone. Should be light fast moving sprinkles around midnight, then breezy and warm. Ditto for the rest of the week on into what should be mainly a dry weekend (except for the Midwest, AGAIN lol). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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